The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Tobias]

Based on weekend finals and given a reasonable 2.5 multiplier this film will finish as 230 domestic. Not too bad, not too far off the original and the OS should easily make up the difference.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Speaking as a fan for fans, is a fickle game imo.

It would be like me; not thinking much of these recent Thor films, then going on to suggest that thor fans are enduring bad/sad/harsh times. When clearly there are plenty of 'fans' that are fully enjoying it. So whom is it I presume to speak for? Some class of fans? Or perhaps simply people that feel as I do. And I wouldn't be so bold as to claim this group 'the fans'.

The only 'fans' I would maybe feel bad for are the ones that are seeing their properties be over looked, and perhaps those that are seeing their properties universally mocked. That's a big perhaps on the latter.

But that's me.

Point taken. You always write interesting posts.

 

[TalismanRing]

I think the answer is that, this question gets it somewhat backwards. Its not that the US audience has gotten less interested in Spider-man, so much that the interest in the first Spider-man film was artificially high. It was really the first modern big budget, high adventure superhero film, with all the modern tricks and techniques of contemporary CGI and special effects.

Basically, Spider-man 1 didn't set a new standard for box office interest; it merely was an unusual peak.

Spider-Man like Star Wars and even the first Harry Potter was an event film. So people who wouldn't normally go to a film like that even with great reviews were swept up in the hype. So no matter that sequels were better the franchises never reached the same ticket sales in the U.S.

The difference is unlike those franchises Spider-man's ticket sales have failed to stabilize in the U.S. With a monster opening w/e off the goodwill of Spider-Man 2, Spider-man 3 could have been the stabilizing force and performed better if it was a better movie.

Then the reboot happened and the fall accelerated. For many the reboot was too soon and not welcome so ASM suffered. And it looks like a combination of ASM not being well received enough and the buzz on the quality of ASM2 not being good enough, and maybe even a more crowded comic market place resulted in a failure to reverse the trend.

Estimated US Ticket sales:

Title Est. Tickets / Theaters

Spider-Man 69,484,700 3,876 5/3/02
Spider-Man 2 60,158,700 4,166 6/30/04
Spider-Man 3 48,914,300 4,324 5/4/07
The Amazing Spider-Man 33,680,000 4,318 7/3/12
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 11,508,600 4,324 5/2/14

 

[Marvin]

Point taken. You always write interesting posts.

Thanks friend. Just spreading the open mindedness and cheer.

 

[Marvin]

Spider-Man like Star Wars and even the first Harry Potter was an event film. So people who wouldn't normally go to a film like that even with great reviews were swept up in the hype. So no matter that sequels were better the franchises never reached the same ticket sales in the U.S.

The difference is unlike those franchises Spider-man's ticket sales have failed to stabilize in the U.S. With a monster opening w/e off the goodwill of Spider-Man 2, Spider-man 3 could have been the stabilizing force and performed better if it was a better movie.

Then the reboot happened and the fall accelerated. For many the reboot was too soon and not welcome so ASM suffered. And it looks like a combination of ASM not being well received enough and the buzz on the quality of ASM2 not being good enough, and maybe even a more crowded comic market place resulted in a failure to reverse the trend.

Estimated US Ticket sales:

Title Est. Tickets / Theaters

Spider-Man 69,484,700 3,876 5/3/02
Spider-Man 2 60,158,700 4,166 6/30/04
Spider-Man 3 48,914,300 4,324 5/4/07
The Amazing Spider-Man 33,680,000 4,318 7/3/12
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 11,508,600 4,324 5/2/14

That's an interesting point. It also speaks on the possible fate of all hype machines these days and domestically.

At a certain point, it's only the people that are interested and not so much obliged that buy tickets. That is, if you keep doing the same thing.

 

[Nemeres]

Sigh what a depressing time to be a Superman fan.

Kind of, yeah. I would replace "depressing" with "frustrating".

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Ticket sales were just so much higher before, the glory days ^^

 

[Marvin]

The difference is that while TWS improved significantly following TFA and in April, to boot, TASM2 opened less than the previous movie and it's in the most coveted weekend of the summer. Oh, and Spider-Man is obviously more popular than Cap in the public consciousness.

-TFA opened in the 60's how could it's sequel do anything but improve.The fast series for example currently faces the opposite problem.

-I was under the impression ASM2 opened higher than ASM1.

Spidey being obviously more popular than cap, I think is an interesting debate.
There is an argument that would suggest Ironman is currently more popular than Spidey. The reason this argument is made is due to Ironman's growing success(in the numbers) and his close relations to the Avengers thing. Given those similar things being laid upon cap(recently), whose to say Spiderman is "obviously" more popular..where it counts.

Will Spiderman still be 'obviously' more popular by the time Cap 3 lands or will that line of thinking finally pass as it has for Ironman.

We judge popularity and relevance by what is in front of us, not by how old and popular something has been prior. How do we judge if Transformers is more popular and relevant than Jurassic Park? How do we judge if any of these pixar films(incredibles and nemo) are more popular than Terminator..
What's more popular right now, the Matrix or Inception..
What's more popular than the Na'vi right this instant...
The numbers and current goings on are what answer these questions and by the looks of 'the numbers', Spidey being 'obviously' more popular/relevant(in cinema) than cap is up for debate imo, at least as far as domestic is concerned.
Is cap more popular than the ninja turtles..

If nolan and bale left batman to his own devices right now, it's a safe bet the brand's popularity would sway(depending on circumstances). I think people need to appreciate that Toby and Raimi and MJ this ain't. It's something else. When it comes to brand power, it has swayed. I wonder how obvious this sort of thing will be to people if/when RDJ vacates, or would people simply say Ironman is more popular than "..." and leave it at that.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Where are you getting your info that Ben said officially he would not do a solo Batman movie? I highly doubt WB would sign him if he werent going to carry the mantle in solo films as well.

I think WB are going to let the solo Bat-films rest for a while.

 

[JKKS085]

Ticket sales were just so much higher before, the glory days ^^

Yeah the glory days which in the genre only happened again in 2008 with The Dark Knight selling 74,2M tickets and in 2012 with The Avengers selling 76,7M tickets and The Dark Knight Rises an other 57,6M on the same year.

The glory days of two years ago, Boy do I miss them !

 

[TalismanRing]

-TFA opened in the 60's how could it's sequel do anything but improve.The fast series for example currently faces the opposite problem.

-I was under the impression ASM2 opened higher than ASM1.

Lots of sequels make less money as we've seen. And that includes ASM2.

ASM opened on a Tues for the 4th of July holiday and made more on that Tues (including $800,000 Mon midnights) than ASM2 did on Friday which included added Thur nights ($8.7m starting at 7pm). $35.86m v $35.17m

Sony keeps trotting out ASM1 $62m Fri-Sat #s so it can pretend ASM2 made more but it will make about $30m less it's opening week. Like it pretends that TWS had a better opening w/e release date in the first week of April than May. Spin. Spin.Spin.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

One thing to remember is that studios get on average around 50% of the gross per films domestically, but less in international markets and only around 25% in China. So for each dollar a film doesn't get in the US, it has to get two dollars in China to make up for it. A film that makes $800 million worldwide with $400 million of that coming from the US is going to be more profitable than one making that same $800 million worldwide with only $200 million coming from the US.

Also, this isn't just one film in a vacuum. Sony is trying to use it to launch a number of lesser properties (ex. Venom, The Sinister Six). Assuming ASM2 makes $800 million (not certain, but plausible), that is merely 'okay' considering the investment Sony has put into it and downright scary considering where Sony wants to take these properties in the future. After all, if ASM2 only gets $800 million after spending obscene amounts promoting the film, what's a Sinister Six movie going to do? ASM2 was the easy sell, not the hard one.

To use a sports analogy, look at the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The first seed Indiana Pacers managed to squeak by with a Seven Game victory over eighth seed Atlanta. Sure they won, but they can't be feeling very good about themselves or their future prospects. If they struggle to beat the Hawks, how are they going to handle Miami?

Likewise, if Sony struggles to make a moderate profit with Spider-Man, how are they going to do it in a film about the Sinister Six?

There are some very worried executives at Sony today.

 

[JKKS085]

-I was under the impression ASM2 opened higher than ASM1.

You are under a wrong impression. After 7 days (which would be the only way to compare the two movies since TASM opened on a Tuesday) projections indicates that TASM 2 should trail 20% behind TASM.

Spidey being obviously more popular than cap, I think is an interesting debate.

The debate is actually quite simple. Spider-Man is coming from a franchise that is slowly plummetting while Captain America's films are striving. So yeah you could say that when it comes to films Captain America just catch up with Spider-Man when it comes to popularity.

Now if we're talking about the global, cultural impact of the character throughout the years and through different medias I don't think there's a debate here. Spider-Man had countless record breaking comic book issues, an insane number of animated TV Shows, an insanly popular film trilogy, it's one of the top selling characters when it comes to merchandising, you have Spider-Man rides in theme parks ...

Finally the only thing that matters is that no one in their right mind would have pictured, a couple of months ago only that a Captain America film would've been able to go toe to toe with a Spider-Man movie B.O. wise.
That's the difference between a movie underperforming compared to the expectations and the other one overperforming.

 

[Marvin]

Likewise, if Sony struggles to make a moderate profit with Spider-Man, how are they going to do it in a film about the Sinister Six?

There are some very worried executives at Sony today.

Faith and commitment.
The same thing displayed and celebrated during those MCU phase one days.

I would imagine tying your films together and selling the novelty out right would help in a ways selling them on their own would not. Time will tell.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Finally the only thing that matters is that no one in their right mind would have pictured, a couple of months ago only that a Captain America film would've been able to go toe to toe with a Spider-Man movie B.O. wise.
That's the difference between a movie underperforming compared to the expectations and the other one overperforming.

Also, TWS was considerably cheaper to make and market.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

The difference is that while TWS improved significantly following TFA and in April, to boot, TASM2 opened less than the previous movie and it's in the most coveted weekend of the summer. Oh, and Spider-Man is obviously more popular than Cap in the public consciousness.

Well I consider Cap more popular especially right now with The Avengers. It's like how Box Office Mojo put it: franchise fatigue for Spidey. I get it.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Whats bad is we compare how much movies make now and we think WOW they did gangbusters be we are forgetting, but you pointed out, that Spider Man in 2002 was a huge success with no 3D and much lower ticket sales. I would love to see just how much Avengers would make had it come out with no 3D or IMAX and tickets selling for what they did when Spider Man came out.

The Avengers had more tickets sold domestically than any Spider-Man film, but Iron Man 3 was less than all three Raimi films (SM3, barely). TASM was less than all three Iron Man films and The Avengers.

http://boxofficemojo.com/franchises....htm&sort=gross&order=DESC&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

 

[Bruce Malone]

Whats bad is we compare how much movies make now and we think WOW they did gangbusters be we are forgetting, but you pointed out, that Spider Man in 2002 was a huge success with no 3D and much lower ticket sales. I would love to see just how much Avengers would make had it come out with no 3D or IMAX and tickets selling for what they did when Spider Man came out.

Yeah but that's tickets sold, which sort of takes into account inflated 3D prices by showing how many tickets were indeed sold and not just total gross.

 

[JKKS085]

Whats bad is we compare how much movies make now and we think WOW they did gangbusters be we are forgetting, but you pointed out, that Spider Man in 2002 was a huge success with no 3D and much lower ticket sales. I would love to see just how much Avengers would make had it come out with no 3D or IMAX and tickets selling for what they did when Spider Man came out.

The Avengers sold 76,7M tickets. In the genre both Avengers and TDK sold more tickets than Spider-Man.

 

[Marvin]

You are under a wrong impression. After 7 days (which would be the only way to compare the two movies since TASM opened on a Tuesday) projections indicates that TASM 2 should trail 20% behind TASM.

That's hardly the only way to compare the two movies. But if you will, lead in to weekends tend to yield a higher day for day given anticipation(by my guess). I've rarely seen people set up tents after the opening weekend if you see where I'm coming from. However I'll wait till it's said and done before assuming how it does relative to the prior film. Still a lower opening day is hard to account for. Even if it's by a 1 million or so.

The debate is actually quite simple. Spider-Man is coming from a franchise that is slowly plummetting while Captain America's films are striving. So yeah you could say that when it comes to films Captain America just catch up with Spider-Man when it comes to popularity.

When you say Cap film's I assume you are referring to TFA, given it was the only recent one. Topped off with Avengers.
Given what ASM did relative to TFA I'd say the current debate is interesting. Given what an affiliation to avengers can do for a brand relative what ASM2 had going for it, I suppose that's where things get more simple to be sure.
A hulk film now with Ruffulo is vastly more 'popular' than the basic sequel to 'TIH'.

Now if we're talking about the global, cultural impact of the character throughout the years and through different medias I don't think there's a debate here. Spider-Man had countless record breaking comic book issues, an insane number of animated TV Shows, an insanly popular film trilogy, it's one of the top selling characters when it comes to merchandising, you have Spider-Man rides in theme parks ...

All that being as it is, none of it will help spiderman beat/compete or be 'more popular' than the previous or next avengers film. Which is my point. You're measuring this with antiquity and not with what's in front of us. What's in front of us when it comes to what Casino Royale had going for it? Antiquity and toy sales...

Finally the only thing that matters is that no one in their right mind would have pictured, a couple of months ago only that a Captain America film would've been able to go toe to toe with a Spider-Man movie B.O. wise. That's the difference between a movie underperforming compared to the expectations and the other one over performing.

That's how you measure under or over performing? What we think we know months prior?
No bueno imo.

Further, what does it say that there were no doubt plenty of people in their right mind that could see it coming. Thor2 is competing with ASM1(a spiderman movie). Ironman(post avengers bump) wiped the floor with it and was competing prior to that...

 

[Webhead38]

I think we'll have a better idea after next weekend. If it takes a greater drop than 60% then we know the franchise is really in trouble domestically. Overseas the movie is looking to be huge in China. We'll also know more about that market by next weekend as well. If one or both of those perform reasonably well, you can bank ASM3 will be on the books to make. If it doesn't, Sony will have a major problem if they have to let the franchise go away for a few years to be really profitable again. So we'll see which direction that momentum swings next weekend.

 

[Streetlight]

The rise of Captain America doesn't necessarily mean that's Spider-man's less popular. That's like me growing an inch height wise but insisting everyone else has shrunk an inch.

Captain America benefited massively from the Avengers movie where as Spider-man hasn't had a cinematic gimmick (not sure what else to call it) as bringing a group of movies together like Marvel did, so it makes sense to me Captain America's doing a lot better recently.

 

[Visualiza]

The rise of Captain America doesn't necessarily mean that's Spider-man's less popular. That's like me growing an inch height wise but insisting everyone else has shrunk an inch.

Captain America benefited massively from the Avengers movie where as Spider-man hasn't had a cinematic gimmick (not sure what else to call it) as bringing a group of movies together like Marvel did, so it makes sense to me Captain America's doing a lot better recently.

That's true, but I think that goes without saying. I simply think it has to do with the overall opinion on the recent movies. Spider-Man 3 did us no favors, and from what I gather, neither of these two movies did either. Spider-Man has, for better or for worse, fallen on his own sword. I could be wrong, but I don't think it has anything to do with fatigue, competition, or any other sort of external distraction, I really believe it speaks to how the movies themselves resonate with the audience.

Now, Transformers is something of an anomaly in my eyes, because for the life of me, I can't even begin to figure out how they continue to smash box office records. But that's just it, that franchise is the exception rather than the rule. Spider-Man already has mass pop-culture appeal, this much is undeniable. Now, it's up to the studios to give us all a compelling reason to put our backsides in the seats again.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Based on weekend finals and given a reasonable 2.5 multiplier this film will finish as 230 domestic. Not too bad, not too far off the original and the OS should easily make up the difference.

I think a 2.5 multiplier is a very generous prediction given the competition this is going to be going up against soon and the WOM isn't going to help it (might not hurt it either, but it won't help). I'd think a 2.3 or 2.4 multiplier and >$220m is more likely.

 

[JKKS085]

@Marvin

If that's hardly the only way to compare the movies, tell me how you'd do it when one opened on a tuesday and the other on friday ? That's how BO analysts do it all the times. That's the reason why we got 7 days projections for TASM 2 out of the week end to make a more accurate comparison with its predecessor. If it is not exactly carved into stone at this point there is no way for TASM 2 to outgross TASM's domestic take either after a week or at the end of its run. It's just maths really.

I don't know why we keep coming to the MCU to justify Spider-Man current lack of appeal in theaters. Spider-Man is a pop-culture behemoth of a character beloved by generations of people across the globe through various medias. The Spider-Man brand only is a massive selling factor (and pretty much the only reason why none of the TASM films dropped under the 500M mark). That alone should allow it to compete with MCU solo films or reach the same levels as the previous trilogy. It doesn't reach those levels because the last three outings in the franchise are at best considered divisive, at worst subpar. It's a simple as that. Had the films brought something new and fresh and ticked with audiences we wouldn't have this discussion.

Frankly I don't care what you think is "bueno" or not. The fact is that until very recently no one, including Sony, thought, forecast or predicted that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 would open #2 behind CATWS. These are expectations ! TASM 2 came under CATWS above. This is something you cannot spin. A month ago or so THR predicted that TASM2 would be making 325 millions domestically (and several other leading medias in the field had predictions well above 300 millions as well). It'll fall at least 100 millions short of that mark. If that isn't underperforming I don't know what is. Thor 2 came like 56 millions under TASM domestically and 108 millions under internationally which means both films are quite not in the same range either.

And finally, it's pretty easy to say "yes, of course any MCU character is now more popular than Spider-Man" afterwards. The better thing would have been to anticipate that and state this opinion beforhand and not after everything is pretty much said and done to somehow justify a box office dissapointment. You can't go wrong by predicting things after they happened.