The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Tymminator]

Movies are released overseas first because Piracy is a bigger issue there and early leaks affect B.O. more in Europe and especially Asia than it does in the U.S.

Crunching some #s.


O/S total is now $403m with approx $40-50m more coming from China. ASM2 would need about $50m more from remaining territories for $500m O/S.


Spider-Man made $119m O/S last w/e. $10m of that was from the Sunday opening in China. This w/e it made $69,500,000 with approx $26m (164m y) or 38% from China. Non China territories dropped from $109m to $43.5m - approx - 60% drop (with no significant competition)



So the big question is with Godzilla opening on this week (almost everywhere but China and Wed and Thur is many countries) does it have $50m more left from non China territories?



I think unless it starts dropping 70+% - yes. But it might not make enough to compensate for the $25-45m domestic decrease to match the WW total of $752m of ASM. Should be close.

I hear in China it had a huge boost and great weekend.

 

[MrMaooz]

Nope.

What does it need?

 

[BestGirl]

I'm interested in hearing why also, ASM2 skews more towards family/kids than TWS did.

TWS was pretty brutal for a PG-13 film. It certainly felt more real and violent than TASM2 did, in spite of [BLACKOUT]Gwen's death.[/BLACKOUT]

 

[socool]

What does it need?

I don't know where it is now, but it needs 750m to break even.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Poor Sony... thay aren't getting that billion they so badly crave.

 

[Marvin]

Worry more about coming to terms with what happened instead of what could have happened. Spidey's time in the sun is done thanks to Webb and Sony.

I wasn't the one who brought it up.

 

[socool]

Poor Sony... thay aren't getting that billion they so badly crave.

They probably should've thought of making a good movie then.

 

[Bruce Malone]

So this is going to be 4 consecutive domestic total drops for the spider-man series. That has to be some sort of series record?

The international market really has saved this franchise because I couldn't see many other series continuing with that trend?

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

They probably should've thought of making a good movie then.

It's funny... a few months ago, I thought for sure this would be the Spidey movie that allowed him to join the billion-dollar club.

 

[The Joker]

They probably should've thought of making a good movie then.

True, but the thing is sometimes bad movies manage to make a billion. Like Transformers 3.

 

[socool]

It's funny... a few months ago, I thought for sure this would be the Spidey movie that allowed him to join the billion-dollar club.

Yeah, things sure did look great then, didn't they, aha. God, this is depressing.

 

[socool]

True, but the thing is sometimes bad movies manage to make a billion. Like Transformers 3.

Yeah, I was really just being a dick. I still don't know how that happened with Transformers, though... What was so damn appealing???

 

[TalismanRing]

So this is going to be 4 consecutive domestic total drops for the spider-man series. That has to be some sort of series record?

The international market really has saved this franchise because I couldn't see many other series continuing with that trend?

Not quite and not nearly the most dramatic and not embarrassing

Unadjusted & Adjusted

Superman: $134,218,018 ($456,570,700)
Superman II: $108,185,706 ($309,769,10)
Superman III:$59,950,623 ($151,494,300)
Superman IV: $15,681,020 ($31,923,500)

Jaws: $260,000,000 ($1,019,507,400)
Jaws 2: $81,766,007 ($264,439,600)
Jaws 3-D: $45,517,055 ($115,020,900)
Jaws IV: $20,763,013 ($42,269,500)

 

[Bruce Malone]

Not quite and not nearly the most dramatic and not embarrassing

Unadjusted & Adjusted

Superman: $134,218,018 ($456,570,700)
Superman II: $108,185,706 ($309,769,10)
Superman III:$59,950,623 ($151,494,300)
Superman IV: $15,681,020 ($31,923,500)

Jaws: $260,000,000 ($1,019,507,400)
Jaws 2: $81,766,007 ($264,439,600)
Jaws 3-D: $45,517,055 ($115,020,900)
Jaws IV: $20,763,013 ($42,269,500)

In both your examples those are 3 consecutive drops. As I mentioned the Spider-man series is going on 4. If there has been a film series with more consecutive drops I'm legitimately curious as to what it is?

 

[socool]

In both your examples those are 3 consecutive drops. As I mentioned the Spider-man series is going on 4. If there has been a film series with more consecutive drops I'm legitimately curious as to what it is?

Completely off topic, but your avatar is making me want to rewatch True Detective.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

True, but the thing is sometimes bad movies manage to make a billion. Like Transformers 3.

Why do people bring up the Transformers franchise when it is a clear outlier.

 

[chaseter]

In both your examples those are 3 consecutive drops. As I mentioned the Spider-man series is going on 4. If there has been a film series with more consecutive drops I'm legitimately curious as to what it is?

All of those examples also get worse and worse quality wise.

 

[TeeKay]

Transformers is an outlier like Darth said, people know what they're getting. Those movies make money because Bay is a blockbuster director. No matter how bad the movies are, he gives people what they want, big robots and explosions. They are just mindless fun popcorn films. That's why the don't flop.

 

[TalismanRing]

Well I'm sure if a Jaws V was made it would have made $12 & 43 cents.

Unadjusted Halloween comes close but no cigar since it had a $2m uptick between 3 and 4 before going back down again but it did decrease adjusted for inflation/ticket sales. And then years later with #6, 7, 8 etc it had an up and down resurgence.

http://boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=halloween.htm

 

[TalismanRing]

Transformers is an outlier like Darth said, people know what they're getting. Those movies make money because Bay is a blockbuster director. No matter how bad the movies are, he gives people what they want, big robots and explosions. They are just mindless fun popcorn films. That's why the don't flop.

Exactly. The most ridiculous you've got to be kidding me Superbowl ad airs and the target audience doesn't care if the dialogue is bad and the plot is made of tissue paper - there are ROBOT DINOSAURS promised and they know Bay will deliver them.

 

[Marvin]

I see handfull of contradictions in this.

I fail to see how an R-rated comedy is "direct competition" to a film that plays more like a family flick according to pretty much everyone who understands how the BO works (and after you spent a week explaining how Neighbors wouldn't appeal to families and children) ? And therefore fail to see how TASM2 could have fared better with direct competition this time from another family flick (and an animated one for that matter) aimed at similar quadrants. My guess, given the extremely weak legs the film displayed, the lack of appeal to women audiences, is that TASM2 would have tanked even more against Rio 2 than it did against Neighbors. Which is I think the safe assumption. TASM2 would have been the one week old film with mixed reviews/mixed wom and you seriously think Rio 2, with the help of novelty, the goodwill built on a well received first film, would have been the one to suffer the most from direct competition ? I don't see it.

Don't remember saying all that much about how Neighbors would do actually, particularly in this section. However, being an R rated comedy doesn't disqualify who it's audience is. Want to gander at just who is it that actually watches R rated comedies such as TED/21 Jumpstreet/This is the End/The Hangover? Pretty sure it's a good amount of the same people that watch spiderman, especially when they have leading man good looks teen hearthrobs and are about college vs 'the change up'. Fair bet a great majority of that is the same '... to 24' demographic films like Spidey/Cap/Transformers strive on. The determining factor being just how big the film in question is: This is the end for example opened with 20 million and did little harm to anyone. If this is the end opened with 50-95 million it would do alot more damage to it's competitors.

If you take one of these comedies and have it open over 50 million that's hurting other films that are looking to the '...to 24' demographic. Period.
If Rio did 10 million, I don't care how many kids it pulls in, that's not a huge number. The fact is, Rio did sub par damage for an animated film, it's not Despicable Me2, it's Not HTTYD, it's not ToyStory, Shrek or monsters...It's damage is proportional to how much it makes and that simply wasn't all that much, and would have simply been even less if kids had to choose, but kids didn't really have to choose that weekend, neither did young adults or seniors.

So yes, I think Neighbors is direct competition(unlike 12 years a slave) and I think spiderman would have fared better against a film that opens to a poorly reviewed/received film that opened to a 39 over one that opens to 50plus and is the talk of the town. I also think ASM2 doesn't drop 60% if it has the weekend to itself, imagine that.

I don't know how MoS' performance (or Transformers for that matter) is related to the matter at hand here (but I realize you like coming up with these film every so often).

I came up with MOS cause that film suffered from 'direct' competition on a far grander scale. Last I checked we were talking about how these kid friendly super hero films suffer when they encounter this particular thing. I chose that particular film cause it's the last film to do so and it did so against a really big kids film.
As for Transformers, that point is even more simple. Another spiderman like film that I am asserting would fare far better against an under performer like Rio over the next big hot R comedy franchise. Let me know if you need me to clarify further, I'd be happy to seeing as this is my favorite thing...

The facts are actually quite simple. TASM2 is a dissapointment domestically, no matter how you see it, or better, want to spin it.

Who said it was doing well domestically? Pretty sure this line of discussion started with the a hypothesis about how it would do against a film that was far less competitive as opposed to the one it went against this weekend. Please tell me where I've spun that this is doing well domestically. I do recall saying it would have done better with less competition vs more.

It opened in the lower range of estimates, got a mediocre cinemascore, performed this week below said estimates and tanked over the week end. It'll set a worrying all-tim low for the franchise on vital markets. You can make up all the excuses you want but the reason why it, likely, dropped 60% (while you spent some time last week explaining how it wouldn't drop 60%) or at least close to that, is because people weren't drawn to it. And people weren't drawn to it because it's perceived, rightfully or not, as mediocre flick. Competition is not an excuse especially when said competition is aimed at different quadrants (and therefore the comparision with MoS is completely irrelevant). When Neighbors was tracking in the high 30's/low 40's this week TASM2 was still expected to drop 60% and gross around 37M.

Now I'm really wondering what kind of excuses you'll come up with next week end when it'll drop 55%+ against Godzilla, when DoFP scores a better opening week end (despite the MCU and all that) or when the film ends up it's theatrical run in the low 200's with a weak multiplier. I'm pretty sure you can keep on avoiding to say that these mediocre numbers may have something to do with the quality of the film for quite some time.

When it drops again to Godzilla I was pretty much say what various people in this very thread have been saying, about that is in part due to a big film opening to a similar summer crowd and drawing 3d screen away. It's something that kinda happens when big films open right after another. When Godzilla itself drops the week of DOFP I'll be right there saying the same thing about 'how that factors into godzillas drop'. Call that an excuse or an observation about market share or a 'spin' or what have you. Fair warning, I'll be saying it.

As for what I explained about this film dropping less than 60%. I personally don't recall, I tend to stray away form percentage talks. However, if that was my guess, that was my guess. Don't remember explaining anything. My 'explaining' tends to happen after the fact. I also clearly guessed the reception Neighbors was going to receive wrong as well(wasn't the only one). If I was told the film was going to open over 50million, I would have 'guessed' differently, again, period.

MOS is completely relevant in that it's a film that had to suffer high level competition in it's following weeks. You seem to be under the impression that the only way films affect each other is if they are of the same ilk or something. Like I said before, would it take Neighbors opening over 100 mill before you saw the folly in this line of thinking?
ASM will land where it lands partially due to the strong line up of films in this May(relative to previous mays). If you really want to discuss this, please let me know. Titanic is also relevant in the discussion about competition.

The reason ASM isn't making 350 or even 300 domestic is due to things beyond that but this idea that competition and or lack thereof mean nothing is mostly stupid. imo.

 

[Marvin]

Exactly. The most ridiculous you've got to be kidding me Superbowl ad airs and the target audience doesn't care if the dialogue is bad and the plot is made of tissue paper - there are ROBOT DINOSAURS promised and they know Bay will deliver them.

Transformers makes money for similar reasons Neighbors makes money. 'Good' films don't all meet the same expectation. Some good films, like ID4, are fun and silly and have cool action.

 

[TeeKay]

Transformers makes money for similar reasons Neighbors makes money. 'Good' films don't all meet the same expectation. Some good films, like ID4, are fun and silly and have cool action.

Neighbours was actually good though.

 

[socool]

Transformers makes money for similar reasons Neighbors makes money. 'Good' films don't all meet the same expectation. Some good films, like ID4, are fun and silly and have cool action.

Lol, Neighbors was a good film.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

While I don't agree with Marvin, I think what he is saying is Transformers is good for what it is which is why people watch it. Like I said, I don't agree and I found Neighbors to be a great film no matter how you slice.