The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[DarthSkywalker]

You mad?

That's my secret TeeKay. I am always mad.

 

[TeeKay]

That's my secret TeeKay. I am always mad.

Good one. That has made my day.t:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The Int #s and fear of change mid-stream (and fear of spooking stock holders) mean they will likely stand pat and proceed with the status quo and their absurd Sinister Six plans.

Digging in your heels is something Hollywood is not unfamiliar with. It usually ends badly though.

Good one. That has made my day.t:

 

[Atharun]

I can see Godzilla doing close to 65-70 mil this weekend. Movies like neighbors tend to hit what, 135-150 mil, maybe 200 mil total B.O. (I am basing this off pineapple express and this is the end and going a bit above those). I still see spidey staying about even for another week and possibly beating neighbors this week to stay in 2nd. As much as I am a Godzilla fan, I don;t think he has ever been "super" popular here stateside has he? As kid I used to love the old films but the 90's film and the cartoon are all I can remember as far as a significant presence for Godzilla go here in the states.

 

[JKKS085]

I still see spidey staying about even for another week and possibly beating neighbors this week to stay in 2nd.

Do you mean you expect TASM to drop 0% next week end ?
Neighbors outgrossed TASM2 by 13.5M this week end so it would have to drop dramatically (and TASM2 would have to hold incredibly well) to fall behind TASM2 next week end.
So it's pretty safe to say that none of the above is happening.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I feel that starting this weekend, TASM2 will probably gross around $10M-$15M each weekend now?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I feel that starting this weekend, TASM2 will probably gross around $10M-$15M each weekend now?

It will make less each weekend like most blockbusters.

 

[JKKS085]

I am really wondering now if the film will actually get to 200M.

It is holding worse than Thor The Dark World and is now barely 1.1M ahead after 10 days of release (despite its 5.9M headstart). It will have to pull off an awful "Green Lantern level" multiplier (around 2.1) not to get to 200M but with the competition ahead, the general lack of appeal displayed this week end, I can see it happening. Godzilla is on route to open with 60M+, with decent reviews so far which will definitely hurt TASM's take and then there's DoFP and Maleficient. But in the other hand there's memorial day week end ahead too which can help it somehow.

The only thing holding me back to predict a domestic haul short of 200M is that I think Sony will do anything to get to that mark. I can see the movie staying forever in dollar theaters or even getting some kind of reexpanding after the summer to cross that mark.

As for more short term forecasts (i.e. next week end), I would say 15.6/16M for a 55/56% drop. With Godzilla set to open to 3,800 theaters I think it'll hurt TASM's theater count so it doesn't even have to perform extremely well to do some serious damage.

 

[Liam_H]

I can't see how this misses $200M, it will have to collapse to not do so.

By the end of Thursday it should be around $156M and by the weekend it should be around $171M at least.

Memorial Day 4-day weekend should pull in 10-12M.

 

[JKKS085]

I guess we'll have to see how much damage, Godzilla and then DoFP will do. It's going to trail behind TTDW next week end but memorial day should give it a welcome boost.
But I don't think it'll miss 200M either it's just me thinking out loud.

 

[Visualiza]

You know what's crazy right now? That a Spider-Man movie will struggle to make what Avengers did its opening weekend.

That's insane.

It's heartbreaking is what it is. This movie had so much potential.

 

[Arach Knight]

What are you seeing for Spidey this weekend if Godzilla does around $60m?

Godzilla is not going to do $60 million. Americans just don't have that sort of history with giant monster films. King Kong (2005) opened at $50.1 million. Cloverfield (2008) opened at $40.1 million and Pacific Rim opened at $37.2 million. For Godzilla to open at $60 million would require a miracle or a dramatic and unexpected shift in the American zeitgeist when it comes to giant-monster films.

Not looking good. The film was still on over 11,000 screens this past weekend due to contractual obligations. All major releases are guaranteed a certain theater and screen count for the first two weeks.

So starting Friday, it's going to take a huge hit on the screen count to make room for Godzilla. Going to take another huge hit in screens to make room next week for X-Men.

I fully expect Sony to fudge if necessary, but it's looking like they will barely beat Thor 2's $206m domestic total.

Box Office Mojo predicts between $206-215 million. So, sounds about right. Domestic interest in Spider-Man is fatigued. Clearly the character has substantial pull, but not so much to give it legs. Especially up against an onslaught of competition for three straight weeks (you left out Maleficent, which opens at the end of this month).

Sony should have released in April or August. I know that May is the traditional Spider-Man release period, but with Marvel dominating the summer for the past six years, competing studios have seemingly shifted their tent-pole films to May. Then again, an April release would have meant Spidey going up against Captain America, and the film would have lost that fight as well.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Last I saw, tracking for Godzilla opening weekend was $75 million.

 

[samsnee]

I'll be shocked if this thing makes more than $10 million two weeks in a row.

 

[chaseter]

It will make about $16 million next weekend.

 

[samsnee]

Right this weekend. But Memorial Day weekend I see it falling below 10.

 

[KangConquers]

Right this weekend. But Memorial Day weekend I see it falling below 10.

It might actually get a boost on Memorial Day. It's not unheard of.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

ASM2 had plenty of room to breath, there's no excuse really.

In order to be the first SM movie to increase domestically they needed to knock this one out the park.

Marvel Studios is the opposite of Sony. They know exactly when they can hit a single and when they need a slugger. Meanwhile Sony strikes out when they desperately need a grand slam.

 

[Marvin]

That's not what I meant and I suspect you know that but it's always more convenient to rely on caricature right ? The point is most of TASM2's audience from day one was male under 25. Most of Neighbors audience is female under 25. Your point was that Neighbors stole the young female demo attracted by the romance aspect of TASM2. What I'm telling is that from day one the young girls demo drawn to Neighbors (per the breakdown demo) is not significant enough to justify the second week end drop since they don't account for most of TASM2's first week end audience (which is mostly male) in the first place.

Neighbors is said to have a 53% female demo, that means 47% is male right? It's nice that you can dress this split up with words like ‘most’, but as far as I'm concerned, 47% is hardly insignificant. Especially when you factor in that that would be eating out of the what, 60% male demo of ASM? Like I said from the start, 2-3 figures higher or lower is all the point needs to be valid. When you say ‘most’, I take that to mean 'just a bit more' and not meaning, anything approaching 'all'. It's almost as if you are arguing that there is zero effect, even with numbers that hover around 50/50 splits male/female which I find...odd.
It's like the number would have to be 48% girl demo for Neighbors, a slight minority, before you start opening up to the possibility of any sort of crossover. If we were talking about that Sex&The City or The Other Woman(75%women), I'd get this obtuse rhetoric but Neighbors isn't that.

Then again you're avoid the core issue which is that per it's numbers TASM2 attracts young kids and families. And young kids and families, just like you said last week, are not drawn to raunchy R-Rated comedies. Meaning that TASM2 core audience had pretty much no other option in theaters this week end.

I never said anything about it being the core audience. I said Spiderman attracts a wider range than a raunchy comedy(which probably explains the opening numbers discrepancy). That means that huge portion of spidey's audience that is similar to say, TDK, the 60% males did in fact have another option this weekend. You are somehow asserting absolutes here. That somehow all of Spidey's audience is non females and how that’s all that migrated to Neighbors, and how that absolutely had no significant affect on the totals. Again, don't agree. I've said it over and over, large portions of the audience are shared and that affects large portions of the totals.

The young female audience which favored Neighbors this week end wasn't drawn to TASM2 in the first place, the young male demo doesn't seem to be TASM2 core audience either otherwise it would have performed better during the week days and wouldn't display such a huge thursday/friday jump (take any MS movie released on the same spot, none displays a similar pattern) meaning that TASM2 core audience lies with kids and families. And the movie was unchallenged this week end.

This part is slightly confusing. I mean I recall Thor2 not only having similarly poor weekdays but also having almost the exact same thurs - friday jump, I'd say the same about the equally performing but very much not for kids GhostRider/Blade among others. But I suppose that's why you mentioned the same spot(cause kids are out of school during this time?). I looked it up and it would appear that X2/Im1/Im3 performed in a similar way on a similar spot, as far as thurs-friday percentages and weekly numbers, with IM3's weekly's being exceptional for obvious reasons. Conversely we have a group of 'kids' films(in the same spot) doing similar to those films just mentioned with stronger weekends and a similar thus-fri, such as Nemo, Up, Madagascar, various Shrek installments, KungFu Panda...my point is barring the obvious exceptions to the rules as any of these films(including asm2 maybe very well be), blanket observations about what is is spidey's numbers say about who it's for in relation to all the aforementioned films, are conjecture and not facts. Sometimes films hold better during the week if they have great word of mouth for example, sometimes word of mouth leads to a large second weekend, then there is competition...etc.

No, no, no you said "MOS faced a solid competition at the box office(though people like to ignore it), ASM faced solid competition at the box office". English might not be my first language but I think solid=solid.
You were comparing both film's competition and by all measures they are incomparable. So your comparision is irrelevant. Unless you can find a way to explain how a 82M, 4 quadrants animated movie and a 66M zombie action flick aimed to young males is similar competition as a 49M R-Rated comedy it'll still be utterly stupid to draw a parallel between these 2 films. Especially in a attempt to justify TASM2's 61,2% drop.

Solid competition doesn't mean they faced the same or same amount competition. I wasn't comparing the competition they received I was stating that they both encountered legitimate and 'solid performing' competition thus, the topic relevant. That is, Solid as the adjective that describes how the competition performs. That is TDK performed in a ‘solid’ fashion. The competition both films faced performed in a solidfashion. So much so that the trades see it fit to remark on not only how well these films(neighbors/MU) performed, but that they, both of them affected their respective competition with their solid performances. Again, relevant. Get this 'similar' word out of you head and replace it with solid as I defined it. If Ted with it's 53 opening was the topic at hand I would also refer to it as solid in relation to how well it performed. I'd refer to it as solid competition if it was competing for a large part of a another films demographic(see Transformers) and also did well.
"Neighbors attracted an audience that was 53% female and 53% over 25 and nearly 60% Caucasian, so yes, it hit ASM 2 right in the demographics."
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/28598.html
Again, I'm not alone in my embarrassing agenda driven correlations.

I still fail to understand how a one week old family flick with mixed reviews and wom was supposed to fare better against another family flick with poor reviews but the advantage of novelty than it did against and R-Rated comedy with a different core audience ? ASM2 core demo is not the "pop culture and young demo" it's families and kids.
But let's assume for one second that you're right. Let's assume that TASM2 lost 3M from it's ya audience to Neighbors that wouldn't be lost to Rio 2. And let's assume for the sake of it that it wouldn't have lost its core kid audience to Rio (despite the fact the it's the first major animated flick this year aside from The Lego Movie) or that the kid/family audience accounts for less than young adults (which is factually wrong) in TASM2's audience. Even with 3 more millions it would put the film's week end around 38,5M. Rio 2 did 39,3M. So it would have lost to Rio 2 as well. Per your own parameters.

After all that crap you fail to estimate the loss Rio takes..because when two films that share the exact same core demo as you are asserting, it’s only the convenient one affects the other. Parameters are funny thing those. ASM2 being the week old flick, itself with the greater advantage in novelty over Rio, is what I'm sure you insinuated. To answer your question, it's because Rio would take a hit, and ASM2(a film with a wider range of demos than rio) would take less of a hit than it did here(imo) seeing as how Rio is a weaker blah buzz performer. Regardless of the assertion that “it targets ASM’s sole contributing demo”.. It would also be the first cbm out, but that’s another discussion.

Yeah I know I make strange fixations on stuff that actually allows you to flesh out your line of arguments instead of just throwing things in the wild. Yeah, I'm nice like that.

Well as for Mendelson's quote it is what it isn i.e. someone's opinion with little facts to back it up. His numbers aren't exactly up to date either since his article is based on projections made on Friday with no indsight on Neighbors demo breakdown either. I think he might have a different prospect on these numbers now that actuals are out.

No, your fixations conveniently obscure the rest of the facts. Such as 53% female means we disregard 47% males and so forth
No significant male appeal whatsoever, this is what I call fixating on what you want and ignoring the rest. Call it nice if you want, I find it something less flattering tbh.

His numbers are off by a digit margin so that's worth throwing away? His opinion that neighbors did damage in a particular demo's that asm2 clearly also shares isn't backed up by enough facts...Kinda odd statement for the seasoned analyst to make, must have pulled it from his butt. Maybe he'll change his tune when he see's that Neighbors only drew 47% of the 60% varied male demo ASM2 attracts. Maybe he'll issue a retraction even. Which would just leave me embarrassed for even bringing it up the demo point.

Those are two forecast from the 2 main BO websites. Not that hard to find. They all have TASM2 dropping around 60% with, like I said, a far lower forecast for Neighbors first week end. These were based on TASM2's week days without taking in account Neighbors overperforming.

Not that hard to find if you ignore the parameters. I said early predictions that weren't influenced by Neighbors strong tracking, advanced ticket sales, let alone word of mouth, but were instead wholly based on ASM2 into itself. I'll give you the latter article.
Secondly I never said anything about the ASM predictions being swayed by Neighbors over performing but rather if it performs very strong(see 22 jump) and how that into itself would affect predictions.
As for whre I got my 40 number, it seems ASM2's predictions varied:
https://variety.com/2014/film/news/neighbors-spider-man-box-office-1201175684/
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-neighbors-doing-strong-702833
Who knew.

Your twisting your own words, that's priceless ! When you were told that Neighbors could be direct competition you dismissed it by saying that it wouldn't attract Families and children. Now you're saying it's competition and that TASM2 would've fared better against another film attracting children and families. That is saying one thing and the exact opposite. Either TASM2 attracts children and families and is therefore more exposed to another film attracting the same demos and Neighbors isn't direct competition or it's the other way around. You can't have both.

Never dismissed Neighbors being competition, direct comp even. I dismissed it attracting kids and families. I've pretty much always held that the film would be competition. See unlike you I'm not of the mind that films have one demo alone. I knew all along that neighbors, like the hangover films would attract all sorts of summer audiences if it was a big hit. I also know spiderman attracts all sorts of summer audiences(kids and families included) such as my self and the rest of my entourage, I personally didn't see one kid at my 10pm spidey showing bur rather hordes of young people like me, couples and older men with old baseball caps and worn leather coats. Not really the pixar crowd. I digress. I simply told the dude that kids and families weren't going anywhere near Neighbours. Not sure what's so hard to understand about that. How's about this; ASM attracts a wide range of people and is very much affected by both films, but depending on how strong they are. That's clearly how I see things(always have) and your little either or, only applies to people that see this as you do. Clearly not me. Thus it’s not about having it both ways, it’s about the logical pathways.

Numbers show that it is not attracting the same range of groups as Iron Man or Captain America. TASM2 is, and I'm completely sick and tired of repeatig the same thing all over again, behaving like a children/family flick not your traditionnal PG13 comic book movie. There's no way around it.

It can behave anyway it wants (nothing to do with it's quality I'm sure) I simply don't believe Spiderman doesn't attract the same audience it's book readership has for 60 years. Considering the theme parks and novelty, one could argue that the pirates of the caribbean films, also released during may, were 'aimed' at kids and families much in the same way spiderman is. Both of those films performing very much like the marvel films you cited, much like ASM, but not like ASM2. Granted the crappier received Pirates 4 reboot performed in a slightly more similar way to ASM2 than the former. Which suggests that the numbers simply don't say what you want they to say, but rather that there might be an element of quality and fatigue and other things at play rather. Depending on if you are looking at the performance of the first harry potter or the second, which demo the brand aimed for seemingly changes with the numbers…I find that reading fickle personally.

I think you were wrong ...

Tried my best. Given it was a single figure I'd still argue the same thing about families not leaving however.

I'm pretty sure I'm simply commenting on numbers like I pretty much always do when it comes to box office (and I don't remember a "win, win" reaction from me).

...

My guess is plenty. Even with the expected 60%+ drop. At first I thougt that opening as low as it did wouldn't allow for a lot of excuses in general but there's a handfull creative fellows here who can pretty much spin any number. And the lower numbers are the more entertaining it gets. So in the end, it's a win win situation.

Clearly I misread this, I suppose there is room for interpretation given the subject matter I suppose.

Clearly and that's not a problem.
But in order not to derail this thread furthermore with lengthy messages such as this one, I suggest we discuss this in pms from now on.

Do what/proceed as you want.
I'll respond where I'm engaged.

In closing:
Try thinking of it this way. If Thor(by your admission) doesn’t play like a kids film(none of these marvel studios films do apparently), were to open on the same day as ASM2(a movie that solely attracts kids/familes according to the numbers), would it in fact be direct competition? If the answer is yes, than again, welcome to the real world. Just because things aren’t exactly the same as it pertains to ‘cores’ and readings of numbers, doesn’t mean they don’t largely compete…in other ways and on other fronts. If nothing else, walk always knowing that’s my thesis here.

Have a good one.

 

[chaseter]

tl;dr

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Godzilla is not going to do $60 million. Americans just don't have that sort of history with giant monster films. King Kong (2005) opened at $50.1 million. Cloverfield (2008) opened at $40.1 million and Pacific Rim opened at $37.2 million. For Godzilla to open at $60 million would require a miracle or a dramatic and unexpected shift in the American zeitgeist when it comes to giant-monster films.




Box Office Mojo predicts between $206-215 million. So, sounds about right. Domestic interest in Spider-Man is fatigued. Clearly the character has substantial pull, but not so much to give it legs. Especially up against an onslaught of competition for three straight weeks (you left out Maleficent, which opens at the end of this month).

Sony should have released in April or August. I know that May is the traditional Spider-Man release period, but with Marvel dominating the summer for the past six years, competing studios have seemingly shifted their tent-pole films to May. Then again, an April release would have meant Spidey going up against Captain America, and the film would have lost that fight as well.

No offensive but you don't know what you're talking about. The tracking for Godzilla on multiple sites is well above $60m. Your "monster movie" calculus is irrelevant. If the reviews were abysmal you might be into something. They aren't. $60m is the absolute floor. Calling it a miracle is hyperbolic.

 

[Marvin]

tl;dr

didn't intend for you to.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Sony revealed that it expects to post a $1.27 billion loss.

Ex-PlayStation chief and current CEO and President of Sony – Kaz Hirai – is preparing to take a 50 percent pay cut while declining his annual bonus, according to The Wall Street Journal. Other unnamed high-level Sony executives will follow suit in a sign of solidarity with their struggling company, which will post an annual loss for the fourth time in five years.

This news comes on the heels of bad financial news for the company. Less than two weeks ago, Sony revealed that it expected to post a $1.27 billion loss for the 2013 fiscal year. In February, it forecasted better numbers, predicting a $1.07 billion loss. Either way, such a loss is a far cry from the $489 million profit it expected to turn in 2013.

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2014/05/13/sonys-ceo-executives-taking-50-pay-cut-losing-bonuses


Sony is drowning, only a matter of time before they auction off Spidey.

 

[Spooderman]

King Kong making 50M makes Godzilla making 60M believable. Pacific Rim and Cloverfield weren't part of a larger franchise, and Cloverfield had the shaky cam that turned people off.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

King Kong making 50M makes Godzilla making 60M believable. Pacific Rim and Cloverfield weren't part of a larger franchise, and Cloverfield had the shaky cam that turned people off.

Damn, 50 m?

Is that adjusted for inflationor unadjusted?