The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Marvin]

CATWS dropped 56,6% on its second week end (so nowhere near 60%) against a 39M opener. TASM2 would have lost the top spot against Rio 2.

Doubt it.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Doubt it.

Why?

 

[Liam_H]

I'm interested in hearing why also, ASM2 skews more towards family/kids than TWS did.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

......Did you survey everyone?????? And Iron Man??? That was 2008! This thread is annoying lol. You compare films from years and years ago!

This is such an unintelligent post. Everything I wrote in that post is true, you don't have to like it but it is. Do me favor, do not respond to my posts any longer if you are going to respond in such a manner. I don't have time for it.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

This is such an unintelligent post. Do me favor, do not respond to my posts any longer.

Your kind of over the top man. I was exhargatting(spell check is off on my phone).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Spellcheck has nothing to do with anything, I don't care about correct spelling as I misspell things all the time. The content of your post was ridiculous though. It doesn't take a genius to know that I was talking about Iron Man 3 as that is the film that opened with 174mil. If you can't keep up then don't respond to my post.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

Yeah i really ripped u a new one......(insert sarcasm)

 

[JKKS085]

Doubt it.

You can doubt all you want. Even if it's not an apples/apples comparision (and I could argue that Rio 2 would have been an even more direct competitor to the family driven TASM than it was to CATWS) TASM2 37M< RIO2 39M.

So yes with its 37M second week end TASM2 would've theoretically lost to Rio2 39M opening week end.

 

[chaseter]

Why?

Because he can't accept the critically panned and now general audience panned disappointment of a movie. Now the audience are reviewing with their wallets and it's falling hard.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Sony are gonna have to drag this to $200M domestic I think.

 

[MrMaooz]

Damn. I wasn't expecting Neighbors to be THIS big. Yeah, it had lots of promotion, but I was only expecting at most something in the 30's.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I think the fact that Captain America : The Winter Soldier has been out for 6 1/2 weeks and it's overall gross is at $695,597,000, while The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has been out for 3 1/2 weeks and it's overall gross is at $523,801,000, is something.

Where was CA : TWS at around 3 1/2 weeks?

Sugar coating facts. TASM2 has been out overseas for almost 5 weeks.

I'm seeing a lot of sugar coating in this thread actually.

 

[TalismanRing]

ASM2 had much less carry-over competition the w/e it opened than CA2 yet it made 3% less and was $3.5m behind. During the weekdays it made less every day so by Thur it was $7m behind.

ASM2 had a huge 183% Friday jump and a very good Saturday jump with a soft drop on Mother's Day. It's w/e off it's weekday numbers was actually a better than expected performance even when Neighbors wasn't projecting to be that big. It's difficult to see how competition really hurt it - especially considering it's lower weekday numbers indicate either it had weak legs or it was playing out as more of a family/children film.

It's now 7% off and $11m behind CA 2's pace and tracking closer to Thor 2 numbers (2% ahead).

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=superhero2014.htm

 

[Marvin]

One can easily say Rio would have lost it's 'kids' to spidey and so on..
That statement can easily be said in the idea that kids don't give all that much crap about 'reviews' and such. That's first.

The reason I 'doubt it' is mainly due to one film encountering a 50 plus million dollar hotly reviewed, hotly buzzed about film, whilst in another scenario, it would have encountered very much the opposite of that, when it comes to the non built in audience for Rio, I really didn't see any cross media/social media anything for the film, but that's me.
Speaking to some of my friends this week who were looking to do some group outings in the film variety. Alot of what I heard was 'we gotta see that new neighbors film' 'dude was funny as hell on kimmel...' 'efron is so hot and amazing..' Faraci and his group think website over there titling their articles on it: "must watch"

^Safe to say none of that was present with Rio. Safe to say on it's own(literally) spidey would have made more than it did this weekend. So just where does Rio fall in between no competition and Neighbors?

Which brings me to my point; If Rio made what it made without 'direct' competition' in Cap2, 39mill I think. And spiderman made what it made with plenty of 'direct' competition 51ish mill. Spidey encountering a film with lower drawing power would yield a higher result in Spiderman. How much higher? Perhaps 2 million(at least) higher. How much lower would Rio stand to make in the face of the 'kid friendly' spiderman? perhaps a few mill lower(at least), ergo, why I doubt it.

It's also why I will never understand why people fail to appreciate just what it was MOS faced in week two. When it comes to comp from all demo's that is. Flip Rio with Monsters University(I think that opened over 80) in this conversation, and I'll change my tune here.

Around these parts, folks tend to only watch one film a weekend and the teens were busy this weekend. Last I checked, this weekend had a bigger haul than that particular weekend in May, including's cap's 5mill mind you. And let's be honest here, as much as ASM derives from it's "kids" audience, the young male/female demo is the largest in hollywood for a reason, even with spiderman. Apply that idea to this situation accordingly.

Pretty sure Michael bay and his Transformers ilk, would rather open opposite Rio than Neighbors. And for obvious reasons. Again, that's just my assumption. Does anyone here think Cap2 would have done better than it did if it was up against Neighbors?

 

[spider-neil]

Spidey isn't going down without a fight. Just like me when the Mrs is randy t:

 

[Marvin]

Because he can't accept the critically panned and now general audience panned disappointment of a movie. Now the audience are reviewing with their wallets and it's falling hard.

Please don't speak for me.
I hate that.

 

[Donald Thomas]

Meh. The movies making money. Tomato Tometo.

BTW....

Hello Dad! When did you get back from OtherWorld??????

Aloha,
I noticed on Box Office Mojo that in the first week of this movie, it made 460 million world wide. Almost 75% foreign. Ever since Raimi's Spider-Man one, the majority of the success of the Spider-Man movies does not come from America. Since much of the comic book fan boy base comes out of America, it's easy to see the disconnect between how American audiences see this movie and how the foreign market sees it.
Spidey rules internationally

 

[spider-neil]

Aloha,
I noticed on Box Office Mojo that in the first week of this movie, it made 460 million world wide. Almost 75% foreign. Ever since Raimi's Spider-Man one, the majority of the success of the Spider-Man movies does not come from America. Since much of the comic book fan boy base comes out of America, it's easy to see the disconnect between how American audiences see this movie and how the foreign market sees it.
Spidey rules internationally

I think it's the main reason Sony releases in Europe and Asia first with the US as an after thought.

 

[chaseter]

Please don't speak for me.
I hate that.

Worry more about coming to terms with what happened instead of what could have happened. Spidey's time in the sun is done thanks to Webb and Sony.

 

[TalismanRing]

Movies are released overseas first because Piracy is a bigger issue there and early leaks affect B.O. more in Europe and especially Asia than it does in the U.S.

Crunching some #s.


O/S total is now $403m with approx $40-50m more coming from China. ASM2 would need about $50m more from remaining territories for $500m O/S.


Spider-Man made $119m O/S last w/e. $10m of that was from the Sunday opening in China. This w/e it made $69,500,000 with approx $26m (164m y) or 38% from China. Non China territories dropped from $109m to $43.5m - approx - 60% drop (with no significant competition)



So the big question is with Godzilla opening on this week (almost everywhere but China and Wed and Thur is many countries) does it have $50m more left from non China territories?



I think unless it starts dropping 70+% - yes. But it might not make enough to compensate for the $25-45m domestic decrease to match the WW total of $752m of ASM. Should be close.

 

[socool]

Definitely think the film will break even at the end, but it'll struggle. Don't see much of a profit coming from this film, haha. This makes me wonder more so what Sony will do to compensate. The optimistic part of me says they'll fire Avi, but that'll never happen.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Damn. I wasn't expecting Neighbors to be THIS big. Yeah, it had lots of promotion, but I was only expecting at most something in the 30's.

That is because none of you listen to me.

 

[JKKS085]

One can easily say Rio would have lost it's 'kids' to spidey and so on..
That statement can easily be said in the idea that kids don't give all that much crap about 'reviews' and such. That's first.

The reason I 'doubt it' is mainly due to one film encountering a 50 plus million dollar hotly reviewed, hotly buzzed about film, whilst in another scenario, it would have encountered very much the opposite of that, when it comes to the non built in audience for Rio, I really didn't see any cross media/social media anything for the film, but that's me.
Speaking to some of my friends this week who were looking to do some group outings in the film variety. Alot of what I heard was 'we gotta see that new neighbors film' 'dude was funny as hell on kimmel...' 'efron is so hot and amazing..' Faraci and his group think website over there titling their articles on it: "must watch"

^Safe to say none of that was present with Rio. Safe to say on it's own(literally) spidey would have made more than it did this weekend. So just where does Rio fall in between no competition and Neighbors?

Which brings me to my point; If Rio made what it made without 'direct' competition' in Cap2, 39mill I think. And spiderman made what it made with plenty of 'direct' competition 51ish mill. Spidey encountering a film with lower drawing power would yield a higher result in Spiderman. How much higher? Perhaps 2 million(at least) higher. How much lower would Rio stand to make in the face of the 'kid friendly' spiderman? perhaps a few mill lower(at least), ergo, why I doubt it.

It's also why I will never understand why people fail to appreciate just what it was MOS faced in week two. When it comes to comp from all demo's that is. Flip Rio with Monsters University(I think that opened over 80) in this conversation, and I'll change my tune here.

Around these parts, folks tend to only watch one film a weekend and the teens were busy this weekend. Last I checked, this weekend had a bigger haul than that particular weekend in May, including's cap's 5mill mind you. And let's be honest here, as much as ASM derives from it's "kids" audience, the young male/female demo is the largest in hollywood for a reason, even with spiderman. Apply that idea to this situation accordingly.

Pretty sure Michael bay and his Transformers ilk, would rather open opposite Rio than Neighbors. And for obvious reasons. Again, that's just my assumption. Does anyone here think Cap2 would have done better than it did if it was up against Neighbors?

I see handfull of contradictions in this.

I fail to see how an R-rated comedy is "direct competition" to a film that plays more like a family flick according to pretty much everyone who understands how the BO works (and after you spent a week explaining how Neighbors wouldn't appeal to families and children) ? And therefore fail to see how TASM2 could have fared better with direct competition this time from another family flick (and an animated one for that matter) aimed at similar quadrants. My guess, given the extremely weak legs the film displayed, the lack of appeal to women audiences, is that TASM2 would have tanked even more against Rio 2 than it did against Neighbors. Which is I think the safe assumption. TASM2 would have been the one week old film with mixed reviews/mixed wom and you seriously think Rio 2, with the help of novelty, the goodwill built on a well received first film, would have been the one to suffer the most from direct competition ? I don't see it.

I don't know how MoS' performance (or Transformers for that matter) is related to the matter at hand here (but I realize you like coming up with these film every so often).

The facts are actually quite simple. TASM2 is a dissapointment domestically, no matter how you see it, or better, want to spin it. It opened in the lower range of estimates, got a mediocre cinemascore, performed this week below said estimates and tanked over the week end. It'll set a worrying all-tim low for the franchise on vital markets. You can make up all the excuses you want but the reason why it, likely, dropped 60% (while you spent some time last week explaining how it wouldn't drop 60%) or at least close to that, is because people weren't drawn to it. And people weren't drawn to it because it's perceived, rightfully or not, as mediocre flick. Competition is not an excuse especially when said competition is aimed at different quadrants (and therefore the comparision with MoS is completely irrelevant). When Neighbors was tracking in the high 30's/low 40's this week TASM2 was still expected to drop 60% and gross around 37M.

Now I'm really wondering what kind of excuses you'll come up with next week end when it'll drop 55%+ against Godzilla, when DoFP scores a better opening week end (despite the MCU and all that) or when the film ends up it's theatrical run in the low 200's with a weak multiplier. I'm pretty sure you can keep on avoiding to say that these mediocre numbers may have something to do with the quality of the film for quite some time.

 

[MrMaooz]

Definitely think the film will break even at the end, but it'll struggle. Don't see much of a profit coming from this film, haha. This makes me wonder more so what Sony will do to compensate. The optimistic part of me says they'll fire Avi, but that'll never happen.

Hasn't it already gone past the whole breaking even thing?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Hasn't it already gone past the whole breaking even thing?

Nope.