The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]478675[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]478461[/split]

 

[rayc1971]

I wonder what kind of effect this will or will not have of Garfield/SONY negotiations for him to do TASM4? Its going to be hard for Garfield to demand a huge increase in his payday. Not that he would have but just saying.

if spiderman3 is a failure and grosses less than this one they wont want Garfield back they will reboot again!

 

[Krystal]

Come on folks it's only 47 million behind the first one after the same number of release days in USA. This weekend could be important and it could make a come back.

The foreign market is great.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The box office doesn't work that way Krystal. It has zero chance of making up the ground it well...never had.

The international numbers are great (for now) but the domestic numbers are in deep, deep trouble.

The film losing it's IMAX screens to Godzilla could be a huge blow to it's box office this weekend. I'm still predicting a near 51% drop but I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped 55%.

 

[Tobias]

if spiderman3 is a failure and grosses less than this one they wont want Garfield back they will reboot again!

It may be that Garfield won't want to continue after TASM3 if he sees the franchise continuing to hurt. Who gets the blame in these things? I dunno and Garfield has been good but it may be good to get out when you can.

 

[Iceman]

I love Garfielld as Spidey. I don't think he's the problem with Spider-man at the moment.

 

[Bruce Malone]

if spiderman3 is a failure and grosses less than this one they wont want Garfield back they will reboot again!

It depends how bad it fails vs it being marginally profitable.

Garfield won't ever have the leverage that Maguire had though, where he made 20 mil I believe for part 3 and I think there were even rumors he'd make 50 million had they gone along with the idea to film part 4 and 5 back to back.

 

[Raiden]

I love Garfielld as Spidey. I don't think he's the problem with Spider-man at the moment.

I think the real problem is Sony, and imo that is the hardest to fix. It's like your favorite team gets stuck with a lousy owner.

 

[Erzengel]

I think that's the problem. Spider-Man isn't a team. It's tough to keep a series going just based on Spider-Man. Are they going to make Venom an anti-hero? Who will the Sinister Six go up against?

This isn't the X-Men or Avengers.

 

[Arach Knight]

Well, the film currently sits at $558 million. That is only $92 million away from my maximum prediction. It isn't an impossible goal to reach, but it seems to be miles away for this film. The domestic gross keeps seeing steep declines. Is this film currently out in all major foreign markets, or are we still waiting for China to bail this film out? Even if ASM2 exceeds my maximum prediction, the film still seems unlikely to exceed the $752 million gross of its predecessor, which is sad. This film has $192 million to gross just to match the previous film. Then again, it isn't all bad. Desolation of Smaug grossed lower than An Unexpected Journey, but that has not derailed The Five Armies. So there is still hope for a final romp with Andrew Garfield as our beloved Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man.

 

[Iceman]

I think the real problem is Sony, and imo that is the hardest to fix. It's like your favorite team gets stuck with a lousy owner.

They need Spidey to work so hopefully they have a huge review after seeing these domestic numbers.

I think that's the problem. Spider-Man isn't a team. It's tough to keep a series going just based on Spider-Man. Are they going to make Venom an anti-hero? Who will the Sinister Six go up against?

This isn't the X-Men or Avengers.

Yep. This makes it hard to keep fresh across so many films as you can't swap out characters and keep introducing new ones. And the rights situation puts so much pressure on to keep making films even when they are in need of a break. Sinister 6 would not be a cheap film to make and seems too risky a proposition without Spider-Man.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I love Garfielld as Spidey. I don't think he's the problem with Spider-man at the moment.

No, he isn't. The creative team/producers around him are the issue. That is very hard to fix.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm sure the film has done more than 558mil worldwide, box office mojo just haven't updated it's international figures yet.

Garfield and probably Webb will finish out their series, fans need not worry about that. The problem with the series now is it has had two movies in a row that garnered a mixed reaction. Good luck getting that North American audience back for a 3rd installment. At least An Unexpected Journey was seen as an upgrade, not so much The Amazing Spider-Man 2.

 

[Moridin]

Yep. This makes it hard to keep fresh across so many films as you can't swap out characters and keep introducing new ones. And the rights situation puts so much pressure on to keep making films even when they are in need of a break. Sinister 6 would not be a cheap film to make and seems too risky a proposition without Spider-Man.

Added to that, you can't really even introduce new locations (like Bond) since Spidey is so New York-centric.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

ASM4 is no longer a sure thing.

I think this raises the stakes for every studio building a superhero universe.

Plan every step carefully or risk losing it all.

 

[Spider-Fan]

ASM4 is no longer a sure thing.

I think this raises the stakes for every studio building a superhero universe.

Plan every step carefully or risk losing it all.

I will go as far to say, I don't see TASM4 happening. At least, not the Garfield/Webb version that could have been possible. I see TASM4 becoming a loose sequel type movie for whoever makes it. Whether it be Sony or Marvel, we will see a new Spider-Man and it will likely be its own thing (ala Roger Moore in James Bond). I think that TASM series ends next film and that Garfield decides not to come back. Webb has basically said he won't be back already. I don't see this changing.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think there is such a thing as character burnout.

As successful as IM3 was I honestly think there's not talk of a 4th one due to the fact there is a fear of public burnout with the Iron Man character.

For spider-man this is now 5 films in 12 years, that's a lot of solo spider-man films right there. Even if they were all gold burnout would still have to happen. I honestly can't believe Sony planned out for 3 sequels after TASM?

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think no talk of Iron Man 4 is more that Marvel knows they likely only have RDJ for two more films and they would rather have him in Avengers movies.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's probably a little of both. I think more Iron Man films while avengers films are coming out would sort of dilute the impact of the character.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think no talk of Iron Man 4 is more that Marvel knows they likely only have RDJ for two more films and they would rather have him in Avengers movies.

Pretty much.

RDJ won't do any more solo Iron Man movies and Marvel Studios can't recast Iron Man until after RDJ does Avengers 2 and 3.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think there is such a thing as character burnout.

As successful as IM3 was I honestly think there's not talk of a 4th one due to the fact there is a fear of public burnout with the Iron Man character.

For spider-man this is now 5 films in 12 years, that's a lot of solo spider-man films right there. Even if they were all gold burnout would still have to happen. I honestly can't believe Sony planned out for 3 sequels after TASM?

No superhero gets over 5 solo movies without going through some major ups and downs.

Batman and Superman fans could tell you that.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I will go as far to say, I don't see TASM4 happening. At least, not the Garfield/Webb version that could have been possible. I see TASM4 becoming a loose sequel type movie for whoever makes it. Whether it be Sony or Marvel, we will see a new Spider-Man and it will likely be its own thing (ala Roger Moore in James Bond). I think that TASM series ends next film and that Garfield decides not to come back. Webb has basically said he won't be back already. I don't see this changing.

I'm hoping Garfield and Webb both leave after ASM3.

The reboot was a somewhat noble experiment, but it would be time to close that chapter and move on.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think there is such a thing as character burnout.

As successful as IM3 was I honestly think there's not talk of a 4th one due to the fact there is a fear of public burnout with the Iron Man character.

For spider-man this is now 5 films in 12 years, that's a lot of solo spider-man films right there. Even if they were all gold burnout would still have to happen. I honestly can't believe Sony planned out for 3 sequels after TASM?

I think Marvel is waiting until after Avengers 3. Then, there will be more Iron Man films. With or without RDJ is the only thing that remains to be seen. Lately, we've heard more rumblings on IM4 being possible. Drew Pearce recenetly talked about the state of that series, and RDJ even said he'd be open to returning for the right script. Iron Man 4 isn't a matter of if. It is when. I think smart money is Phase 4, with a new Stark. Same with the other main Avengers.

 

[Nemeres]

I love Garfielld as Spidey. I don't think he's the problem with Spider-man at the moment.

He's the best asset, hands down, that the franchise has at the moment. I'm sure Sony sees that.