The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Iceman]

Much clearer. The film royalties are gone now I think in exchange for Sony giving the Spidey TV & merchandising rights back to Marvel.

 

[starkresilient]

early reports indicates that godzilla might beat tasm2's OW numbers. they were predicting 60M-70M a couple of weeks ago. The hype must be strong in this one

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah the early word is 35-38mil Friday. Only thing that can help TASM 2 in the wake of such numbers is spill over business.

I want to caution that those are really early estimates so who knows how true they are. They look plausible to me though.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The problem of Spiderman franchise is not the box office result of TASM2, which is still good...the problem is that noone can guarantee that TASM3 will generate the same numbers.

This is what some people seem to have trouble understanding. The biggest problem isn't strictly TASM2. It is what it means for TASM3, TASM4, The Sinister Six, and Venom.

If the franchise was making the same amount of money, but it was relatively stable, that would be a lot better than it dropping significantly from one film to the next like it has been. If TASM2 had great reviews and audience reception than one could reasonably expect those numbers to increase. But since it didn't, there is nothing to suggest that the numbers aren't going to continue to go downwards. And unlike with the Raimi films, there isn't a lot of room for them to drop before the films actually are losing money.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Nail on the head my friend. I have over 1,000 Facebook friends and all the single moms and families I saw were saying they are either about to go or were seeing Godzilla. I'm actually seeing way more for that movie than I did on OW for TASM2. This movies legs are about to be severed at just about the knees and then next WE XM: DOFP will cut them off completely.

Without a drastic change in strategy from Sony (while still remaining in this universe) I doubt the trend will change for this series.

 

[Spiderine]

The trend is not going to change. This film was supposed to set up the new franchise "universe" which was a risky move from the start. How can they justify moving forward when this film was not well received. And now you have no guarantees that even the sequel is going to be successful like it has been in the past.

 

[XSpidercideX]

With the international numbers, the film is in good shape to be honest. The international gross for this one looks to be huge and is making up for domestic gross.

Looks like it will probably exceed the first one's box office world wide.

 

[starkresilient]

Sony’s third frame of “The Amazing Spider-Man 2″ took in about $4.4 million on Friday for a weekend in the $14 million to $15 million range. That should place the U.S. total around $170 million in 17 days and the worldwide total at well over $600 million with China’s total up to $65 million heading into this weekend.

variety

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Ouch. Those are awfully close to the numbers from Thor: The Dark World.

The Winter Soldier was over $200 million after 17 days.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

With the international numbers, the film is in good shape to be honest. The international gross for this one looks to be huge and is making up for domestic gross.

Looks like it will probably exceed the first one's box office world wide.

Therein lies the problem my friend, the profits they take in from the overseas market are nowhere near what they make DOM which is why so many emphasize the Dom take home. China for instance takes a very large chunk of their profits and it grows with each passing week, as well most American releases are only allowed to be in theaters for 30 days as well unless you have some kind of collaboration like IM3. So even if the overseas is doing great that still isn't all that swell for Sony

 

[LizardMan07]

So what are we looking at right now? Around the same as the first film?

 

[Iceman]

With Godzilla looking massive, once DOFP launches this will basically come to a stop.

 

[starkresilient]

So what are we looking at right now? Around the same as the first film?

under the first movie imo

210-215M from USA and around 500M from overseas

some people say it might miss the 200M but idk

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

TDW had a good hold for its 4th weekend, so if DOFP steals TASM's audience on the Memorial Day weekend, there is a very realistic possibility that TASM2 falls behind it.

The two films are probably going to end up very close domestically when all is said and done.

 

[Krystal]

If this franchise needs the world wide BO to bail it out---we may well get more sequels __BUT THEIR QUALITY WILL DECLINE.

Many overseas markets in the non English speaking world are being awed by the spectacle of what American movie-makers can provide---they are much less critical of what we would consider script/logic problems.

If China bails out the SM franchise--we won't be getting superb SM movies------we'll be getting Transformer/Pacific Rim style non-stop action at the expense of what we (hopefully) demand in the west--storytelling.

 

[Krystal]

TDW had a good hold for its 4th weekend, so if DOFP steals TASM's audience on the Memorial Day weekend, there is a very realistic possibility that TASM2 falls behind it.

The two films are probably going to end up very close domestically when all is said and done.

NO. CA: TWS will end up many millions ahead---how many these next two weekends will determine

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

That would be a very bad move. Sony needs to attract more of the American audience, not drive them away.

 

[Iceman]

If this franchise needs the world wide BO to bail it out---we may well get more sequels __BUT THEIR QUALITY WILL DECLINE.

Many overseas markets in the non English speaking world are being awed by the spectacle of what American movie-makers can provide---they are much less critical of what we would consider script/logic problems.

If China bails out the SM franchise--we won't be getting superb SM movies------we'll be getting Transformer/Pacific Rim style non-stop action at the expense of what we (hopefully) demand in the west--storytelling.

I think that already happened!

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

NO. CA: TWS will end up many millions ahead---how many these next two weekends will determine

Sorry, I mean TASM2 and TDW. TASM2 has no chance of catching TWS. Right now it looks like TASM2 is going to end up around $205 million.

 

[LizardMan07]

Do you think the low box office takings are a result of the quality of the movie or something deeper that Sony cannot really control? Such as franchise fatigue or the like?

 

[Silver Surfer]

Sony's money problems are not as dire as many people make them out to be. The movie studio may be a bit underwhelming, but Sony's financial problems come from its ailing electronics division. But Sony Computer Entertainment will post a profit once its PS4 launch period is taken care of, Sony Pictures, Sony Music, Sony Mobile, Sony Financial, and their cameras are profitable..

Sony has had 4 annual loses in the past 5 years, their money problems are very very real. To the point that their Exces are taking pay cuts.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Do you think the low box office takings are a result of the quality of the movie or something deeper that Sony cannot really control? Such as franchise fatigue or the like?

Quality is definitely the biggest factor. Not just of this film, but of the previous two as well.

 

[LizardMan07]

Oh ok that makes sense, I was confused as to how it lost a fair bit of money in some overseas places even though you'd think it'd be making gains based on advertising and the brand, but I assume TASM might have turned others off

 

[Krystal]

Sorry, I mean TASM2 and TDW. TASM2 has no chance of catching TWS. Right now it looks like TASM2 is going to end up around $205 million.

Yes, they really need it to break that psychological $200 million barrier.

I swear I wouldn't put it past them to release an extended version IN THEATERS later in the fall just to build excitement for the DVD and push it over the edge if it's close to that milestone.

 

[LizardMan07]

They won't do that Krystal, is there a precedent for that?