The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[MessiahDecoy123]

Dropping domestic box office must be a grave problem if POTC5 wasn't fast-tracked despite POTC4 grossing over 1 billion worldwide.

 

[Krystal]

They won't do that Krystal, is there a precedent for that?

For a short run re-release there are plenty of precedents--Star TrekID last year. Also creating a "double-feature" with another Sony picture already out (where the money taken in is divided evenly into each movies gross)--I think they did that with IM3 and Thor:TDW

for an extended cut re-release I can only think of Avatar.

But IF there was a longer cut that Webb favored that they over-ruled as too long and they saved it (for home video purposes) I see it as a slight possibility.

Let's say a situation where the domestic is at $191 million and worldwide is $695 million and they have an extended cut already created---they re-release the movie with an extended cut during a really slow part of the fall movie season for a two week run and they bring in $20 million.
I think there are enough people who actually do really like the movie and enough folks who would just be curious to see if it was better that that money would be realistic.

So for little investment you kick the WW over $700 and the domestic over $200--it might be worth it--not likely I'll admit.

 

[SpideyFan866]

What if some really dodgy company ended up with spidey instead of marvel, that'd be a funny turn of events.

Well, Sony can't sell the rights to someone else.

If the relinquish the rights in any way, the rights go to Marvel.

 

[LizardMan07]

Oh that makes heaps of sense, sorry for questioning that, came off as a bit patronising.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Godzilla smashed with $9.3m last night.

Not me.

But so many did! I just saw Godzilla. That movie deserves a good opening. I quite enjoyed it

variety

Not good numbers at all for Spidey. But, that isn't new by this point.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

But so many did! I just saw Godzilla. That movie deserves a good opening. I quite enjoyed it

While there was some logic in some of the nay-saying, a lot of it was hopeful that it wouldn't destroy Spidey's legs. Right now though Spidey's domestic numbers are showing a real lack of love for this film, and it is going to have no legs at all. Godzilla and DoFP are going to destroy them. Heck Neighbors and Godzilla already did.

Also this Godzilla opening all but confirms that WB will be the first too $1bil at the domestic box office this year.

 

[Spider-Fan]

While there was some logic in some of the nay-saying, a lot of it was hopeful. Right now though Spidey's domestic numbers are showing a real lack of love for this film, and it is going to have no legs at all. Godzilla and DoFP are going to destroy them. Heck Neighbors and Godzilla already did.

Agreed. Godzilla is going to do SERIOUS damage this weekend. Especially if it outgrosses TASM2, it is very possible. That will only make Spidey look worse should this happen.

 

[Krystal]

Oh that makes heaps of sense, sorry for questioning that, came off as a bit patronising.

No problem, I didn't take it that way. It IS far-fetched to some degree.

In the case of Avatar,
1. Cameron always has longer cuts (LOL)
2. It was a bigger hit than expected and they got booted out of IMAX theaters to make room for other movies, while it was still humming along.
3. They had an EVEN LONGER third cut to sell the DVD/Blu-rays !!

So I think it's unlikely--but if they had plans in place for an extended cut anyway and things fell in just a precise way--it may be possible.

Sony did release an extended of SM2---at a point where that iteration of the franchise was still ongoing.

And of course Sony has future plans for this version--so it would be "helping" an ongoing franchise as opposed to an extended SM3 which they didn't do because with Raimi gone and the reboot coming why revisit a dead version of the product.

As much disdain I have for sections of this movie, I would probably go to a theatrical extended cut just out of curiosity if it were a substantial amount of minutes more---10+ LOL.

I'm a sucker for Marvel heroes.

And for god's sake remove the X-Men trailer and add back in the Norman ending!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Agreed. Godzilla is going to do SERIOUS damage this weekend. Especially if it outgrosses TASM2, it is very possible. That will only make Spidey look worse should this happen.

Spidey fatigue. That is why those that have seen it are not going back and they are tell others to stay away.

 

[Iceman]

Yes, they really need it to break that psychological $200 million barrier.

I swear I wouldn't put it past them to release an extended version IN THEATERS later in the fall just to build excitement for the DVD and push it over the edge if it's close to that milestone.

It's not like $200m is something to shout about and hardly anyone knows about these numbers apart from hardcore genre fans and I guess 'box office fans' lol. Doesn't seem worth it unless it was going for the billion. Surely all the films which finish in the 90s, 190s, 290s, 390s etc over time would be doing the same thing if this held much importance. I can understand when record breaking films do it to push the record that bit further.

 

[Iceman]

Spidey fatigue. That is why those that have seen it are not going back and they are tell others to stay away.

I think TASM3 is going to have a serious struggle on its hands, even if it's a much better film. It will have fatigue as well as the opposite of hype going against it. I have no idea how they think the spinoffs are going to work, they'd probably benefit by pretending they weren't linked lol.

 

[Krystal]

It's not like $200m is something to shout about and hardly anyone knows about these numbers apart from hardcore genre fans and I guess 'box office fans' lol. Doesn't seem worth it unless it was going for the billion. Surely all the films which finish in the 90s, 190s, 290s, 390s etc over time would be doing the same thing if this held much importance. I can understand when record breaking films do it to push the record that bit further.

Probably true. But they do do things to impress Hollywood and insiders that have no bearing on the average moviegoer.

When they take out ads in Variety and boast "Biggest comedy of the year!"---they aren't aiming at average folks to be impressed.

But maybe boasting "ASM2 $200+ domestic $700+ world wide" to insiders may mean something to them. Maybe.

Psychologically $200 million sounds better than $190 million---the same way stores use the $9.99 price as a psychological thing to avoid $10.00.

Seems silly but they all do it.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Spidey fatigue. That is why those that have seen it are not going back and they are tell others to stay away.

I'd say mix of Spidey fatigue/backlash. It isn't just the quantity of Spidey films, it is the quality of them as well.

 

[Krystal]

I'd say mix of Spidey fatigue/backlash. It isn't just the quantity of Spidey films, it is the quality of them as well.

I agree it's both.

Next time we'll be getting the second version of Ock, a reprise of the third(?) version of Goblin, the second appearance of Rhino, second Venom coming....

Two deaths of Ben, two(?) of Norman, one of Harry, one of Gwen,---you can't say that some folks won't say, "I've seen enough."

I know Goblin is big, but still no Kraven, no Chameleon, no Kingpin (if they have the rights),

 

[Spiderine]

I agree it's both.

Next time we'll be getting the second version of Ock, a reprise of the third(?) version of Goblin, the second appearance of Rhino, second Venom coming....

Two deaths of Ben, two(?) of Norman, one of Harry, one of Gwen,---you can't say that some folks won't say, "I've seen enough."

I know Goblin is big, but still no Kraven, no Chameleon, no Kingpin (if they have the rights),

U see.....This is the point I have been making. There just aren't any original ideas. They are rehashing things we saw and giving it a shiny polished different take. They would have to do black suited spidey again which would lead to Venom. Sorry That may sound cool to all the fanboys but the GA doesn't want to sit through another version of something they saw not so long ago.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I agree it's both.

Next time we'll be getting the second version of Ock, a reprise of the third(?) version of Goblin, the second appearance of Rhino, second Venom coming....

Two deaths of Ben, two(?) of Norman, one of Harry, one of Gwen,---you can't say that some folks won't say, "I've seen enough."

I know Goblin is big, but still no Kraven, no Chameleon, no Kingpin (if they have the rights),

You can say the same about Batman, honestly. But the difference between them is the quality of the reboot series. That reboot just offered a lot more quality. You can see it in just how much the Batman series rose from the ashes. BB didn't make a ton in the BO, but it had very solid weekend to weekend drops, and saw a massive spike in the next 2 films. I have no doubt quality Spider-Man films will yield the same results. We just need better films.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Dropping domestic box office must be a grave problem if POTC5 wasn't fast-tracked despite POTC4 grossing over 1 billion worldwide.

And this is the point that I was going to make. If domestic numbers aren't at all important like some say then where is that Tron sequel and why didn't Disney fast track a Pirates 5? The 4th indeed made over a billion and yet Disney's priority was Alice in Wonderland 2 because the film made over 330mil domestically. Companies like money, they don't care about whining fanboys and girls. The truth is that Disney is afraid to pull the trigger on Pirates 5 because they know the domestic numbers are in for another fall and that it might not make as much as the last film did internationally.

Fanboys and girls are fooling themselves if they think that the North American box office still isn't extremely important to the bottomline.

 

[Krystal]

U see.....This is the point I have been making. There just aren't any original ideas. They are rehashing things we saw and giving it a shiny polished different take. They would have to do black suited spidey again which would lead to Venom. Sorry That may sound cool to all the fanboys but the GA doesn't want to sit through another version of something they saw not so long ago.

My feelings too.

You can say the same about Batman, honestly. But the difference between them is the quality of the reboot series. That reboot just offered a lot more quality. You can see it in just how much the Batman series rose from the ashes. BB didn't make a ton in the BO, but it had very solid weekend to weekend drops, and saw a massive spike in the next 2 films. I have no doubt quality Spider-Man films will yield the same results. We just need better films.

Well, I think the difference is that since 2000 CBMs have taken a big leap forward and Batman 1989 was becoming less mainstream since movie one was a huge hit---so a 2005 modern reboot of batman after a 8 year hiatus from the kiddie Batman and Robin was very fresh to a lot of folks.

Rebooting Spider Man in 2012 after a hugely popular (by dollars at least) trilogy after just 5 years is different IMO.

I feel they have to
1. stop retelling origins and
2. bring in new villains even if they are more obscure--if they are written well they will succeed--same as "B-list IM succeeded because he was written well.

 

[Iceman]

Probably true. But they do do things to impress Hollywood and insiders that have no bearing on the average moviegoer.

When they take out ads in Variety and boast "Biggest comedy of the year!"---they aren't aiming at average folks to be impressed.

But maybe boasting "ASM2 $200+ domestic $700+ world wide" to insiders may mean something to them. Maybe.

Psychologically $200 million sounds better than $190 million---the same way stores use the $9.99 price as a psychological thing to avoid $10.00.

Seems silly but they all do it.

I don't think they'll be trying to impress anyone with these figures. And it's not going to be "biggest" anything lol. But nothing's stopping them I guess if they want to push for it.

 

[Superhero 101]

So what are numbers this weekend going to be like 15 million at least?

 

[Iceman]

Yeah some sites predicted 14m or 15m.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's too soon to tell really. Variety says headed for around a 4.4mil Friday (which would be 15-16mil) but I'm waiting for better numbers because that Friday increase sounds a little low to me.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Well, I think the difference is that since 2000 CBMs have taken a big leap forward and Batman 1989 was becoming less mainstream since movie one was a huge hit---so a 2005 modern reboot of batman after a 8 year hiatus from the kiddie Batman and Robin was very fresh to a lot of folks.

Rebooting Spider Man in 2012 after a hugely popular (by dollars at least) trilogy after just 5 years is different IMO.

I feel they have to
1. stop retelling origins and
2. bring in new villains even if they are more obscure--if they are written well they will succeed--same as "B-list IM succeeded because he was written well.

I agree to a degree. I think using new villains for a reboot that doesn't do another origin is best idea for Spider-Man. Say, someone like Mysterio. BB did something similar using Scarecrow and Ra's Al Ghul. Same should be done with Spidey. Once you hook the audience back with that, then maybe you can bring some of the heavy hitters back, though maybe I'd use Doc Ock and the Master Planner storyline and skip Goblins for now. At least Ock was only in 1 prior film.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

It's not like $200m is something to shout about and hardly anyone knows about these numbers apart from hardcore genre fans and I guess 'box office fans' lol. Doesn't seem worth it unless it was going for the billion. Surely all the films which finish in the 90s, 190s, 290s, 390s etc over time would be doing the same thing if this held much importance. I can understand when record breaking films do it to push the record that bit further.

The DOM BO is a very big deal and that $200m benchmark is there for a reason. When this type of films boast budgets over $200m + the investors want to know they are making a solid investment. So by not being able to hit that mark and having multiple movies showing a downward trend for the BO it makes some loose faith in it. Like has been posted several times, yes they make money from the overseas stuff but each country is different and the return is nowhere near what they get from good DOM BO

I agree it's both.

Next time we'll be getting the second version of Ock, a reprise of the third(?) version of Goblin, the second appearance of Rhino, second Venom coming....

Two deaths of Ben, two(?) of Norman, one of Harry, one of Gwen,---you can't say that some folks won't say, "I've seen enough."

I know Goblin is big, but still no Kraven, no Chameleon, no Kingpin (if they have the rights),

No Kingpin for Sony's Spidey. Feige confirmed awhile back the rights are safe at home with MS when the DD rights reverted

 

[Krystal]

CA:TWS third weekend was $25 mil !! and 4th was $16.

ASM2 3rd weekend expecting $15 against much stronger competition?

If it goes lower than that---I don't think anybody can spin it positive.


No pun intended.