The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

Status
Not open for further replies.
Last edited:
I actually thought it would do 17 million. This film is dropping fast. 200 million looks like a crawl.
 
I've seen underestimations for enough holdovers to not take that 4.4mil number at face value. I still don't think that 17mil is out of the question. 17mil isn't exactly great though but it's better than 15mil.
 
I'd say mix of Spidey fatigue/backlash. It isn't just the quantity of Spidey films, it is the quality of them as well.
I think it is 90% backlash over the quality. It is already dead on its feet at the box office. All the talk about social media and how the general audiences like it was completely and totally false.

I've seen underestimations for enough holdovers to not take that 4.4mil number at face value. I still don't think that 17mil is out of the question. 17mil isn't exactly great though but it's better than 15mil.
Well yes, it is technically better. :funny:
 
You can say the same about Batman, honestly. But the difference between them is the quality of the reboot series. That reboot just offered a lot more quality. You can see it in just how much the Batman series rose from the ashes. BB didn't make a ton in the BO, but it had very solid weekend to weekend drops, and saw a massive spike in the next 2 films. I have no doubt quality Spider-Man films will yield the same results. We just need better films.
The 8 year gap between B&R and BB had a part to play and that can never happen with this Spidey series. If TDK had been of TASM2's quality even after a good start with Begins I think Bats would have started unravelling too. This series should have kicked on with it's own 2nd film boost.
 
I've seen underestimations for enough holdovers to not take that 4.4mil number at face value. I still don't think that 17mil is out of the question. 17mil isn't exactly great though but it's better than 15mil.

I don't see any difference between the two, but I think it will be more likely to end the week with 15 than 17 mil. Godzilla will take a huge bite out of its earnings, or what's left of it.
 
I think it is 90% backlash over the quality. It is already dead on its feet at the box office. All the talk about social media and how the general audiences like it was completely and totally false.

Backlash is still a product of quality, though. Just not to the quality of the current film. Backlash comes from displeasure with the previous film(s). So, I still don't think it is an issue of quantity. If this film had bucked the current trend, I'd see more room for BO growth. Now that it only declined more, likely not happening.
 
And this is the point that I was going to make. If domestic numbers aren't at all important like some say then where is that Tron sequel and why didn't Disney fast track a Pirates 5? The 4th indeed made over a billion and yet Disney's priority was Alice in Wonderland 2 because the film made over 330mil domestically. Companies like money, they don't care about whining fanboys and girls. The truth is that Disney is afraid to pull the trigger on Pirates 5 because they know the domestic numbers are in for another fall and that it might not make as much as the last film did internationally.

Fanboys and girls are fooling themselves if they think that the North American box office still isn't extremely important to the bottomline.
Bringing up China is what makes me laugh. It can make $150m in China, and the studios would trade that for another $100m at the domestic box office in a heart beat. There are no margins in China. Domestic is where the purest profit still is.
 
Backlash is still a product of quality, though. Just not to the quality of the current film. Backlash comes from displeasure with the previous film(s). So, I still don't think it is an issue of quantity. If this film had bucked the current trend, I'd see more room for BO growth. Now that it only declined more, likely not happening.
While I think Spidey 3 and TASM did not help, the week and week drop has almost everything to do with his film. This film could be the "final straw". People are not going back and they are telling others to stay away. Its opening was below expectations, but the week by week shows a lack of love.
 
While I think Spidey 3 and TASM did not help, the week and week drop has almost everything to do with his film. This film could be the "final straw". People are not going back and they are telling others to stay away. Its opening was below expectations, but the week by week shows a lack of love.

Oh, for sure! There is tremendous displeasure that we can see in the drop %. But, and I hate bringing up Batman because EVERYONE does, but it does illustrate the opposite: Batman Begins opened to a not great number due to the previous series becoming so poor. But, people walked away so happy, word spread that it was good, and it kept a low drop %. The rest is cinema history

I do think if TASM2 was good, maybe the opening weekend wouldn't have been higher, but the drops wouldn't be so steep. That also could have led to more buzz for the next film, and BO growth. Especially for a sub 100 mil OW, smaller drops can happen. But, steep drops on a sub 100 mil OW show displeasure toward this film. So, I don't see the BO growth they could have managed with a better movie.
 
Oh, for sure! There is tremendous displeasure that we can see in the drop %. But, and I hate bringing up Batman because EVERYONE does, but it does illustrate the opposite: Batman Begins opened to a not great number due to the previous series becoming so poor. But, people walked away so happy, word spread that it was good, and it kept a low drop %. The rest is cinema history

I do think if TASM2 was good, maybe the opening weekend wouldn't have been higher, but the drops wouldn't be so steep. That also could have led to more buzz for the next film, and BO growth. Especially for a sub 100 mil OW, smaller drops can happen. But, steep drops on a sub 100 mil OW show displeasure toward this film. So, I don't see the BO growth they could have managed with a better movie.
I agree 100%. The opening was significant enough to display the WOM in the box office. This is horrible news for Sony, and there really is no spinning this. In terms of profit, this film is going to end up making less then the first film.
 
Bringing up China is what makes me laugh. It can make $150m in China, and the studios would trade that for another $100m at the domestic box office in a heart beat. There are no margins in China. Domestic is where the purest profit still is.
Exactly. That's why Pacific Rim (which I know you and others enjoyed) making 100mil in China meant **** to Legendary and Warner Brothers. It still made 80mil less than it's budget domestically. Legendary will keep pretending that they are thinking about doing a sequel though.
 
Exactly. That's why Pacific Rim (which I know you and others enjoyed) making 100mil in China meant **** to Legendary and Warner Brothers. It still made 80mil less than it's budget domestically. Legendary will keep pretending that they are thinking about doing a sequel though.
It is a nice number to trumpet if you are trying to trick some idiot investors into getting a sequel made(and God knows I'd watch it if the did), but it does not help in terms of profit. Pacific Rim's biggest saving grace was they slashed the marketing budget to save money. Still, it lost quite a bit of money in the short and long run.
 
I agree 100%. The opening was significant enough to display the WOM in the box office. This is horrible news for Sony, and there really is no spinning this. In terms of profit, this film is going to end up making less then the first film.

No, there is no spinning this into something good. All we can hope is that Sony learned a lesson in all this. But, I doubt they did.
 
It is a nice number to trumpet if you are trying to trick some idiot investors into getting a sequel made(and God knows I'd watch it if the did), but it does not help in terms of profit. Pacific Rim's biggest saving grace was they slashed the marketing budget to save money. Still, it lost quite a bit of money in the short and long run.
Yep, unlike Spidey the marketing budget wasn't astronomical.
 
No, there is no spinning this into something good. All we can hope is that Sony learned a lesson in all this. But, I doubt they did.
Yeah. They learned we need more Spidey movies!!!! More spin offs!!!!! THAT'LL FIX IT!!!!! :cool:

Yep, unlike Spidey the marketing budget wasn't astronomical.
There was a report a few weeks out from Pacific Rim's release that they hadn't spent the vast majority of the marketing budget, and were apparently not going to. That seemed to play out.

TASM2 on the other hand went full on Donald Sterling with the marketing budget.
 
The DOM BO is a very big deal and that $200m benchmark is there for a reason. When this type of films boast budgets over $200m + the investors want to know they are making a solid investment. So by not being able to hit that mark and having multiple movies showing a downward trend for the BO it makes some loose faith in it. Like has been posted several times, yes they make money from the overseas stuff but each country is different and the return is nowhere near what they get from good DOM BO
Investors pore over the figures in a lot greater detail than the most ardent internet box office fans so there's no pulling the wool over their eyes by rereleasing to fudge their way to a round number..they know it's bad either way and rounding up a couple of million dollars is not going to make everything suddenly ok for their investment. $200m was never a domestic benchmark for a Spidey film until now.
 
Yeah. They learned we need more Spidey movies!!!! More spin offs!!!!! THAT'LL FIX IT!!!!! :cool:


There was a report a few weeks out from Pacific Rim's release that they hadn't spent the vast majority of the marketing budget, and were apparently not going to. That seemed to play out.

TASM2 on the other hand went full on Donald Sterling with the marketing budget.
:lmao:
 
TASM2 is expected to make less than it's predecessor now? I thought it was predicted to be just over? Not that I'm upset about it, considering my thoughts on the movie.
 
Investors pore over the figures in a lot greater detail than the most ardent internet box office fans so there's no pulling the wool over their eyes by rereleasing to fudge their way to a round number..they know it's bad either way and rounding up a couple of million dollars is not going to make everything suddenly ok for their investment. $200m was never a domestic benchmark for a Spidey film until now.
Right. Fact is studios don't spend 255mil on a film hoping the domestic only hits 210-220mil. It is obvious by how much they spent Sony was hoping for growth, hoping for a 300mil gross in North America. They were aiming for the Spidey version of TDK and instead they got Star Trek: Into Darkness.

I thought you'd like that Sundance. :D
You know topical humor is my fav Butch. :cwink:
 
Last edited:
TASM2 is expected to make less than it's predecessor now? I thought it was predicted to be just over? Not that I'm upset about it, considering my thoughts on the movie.
Considering how it is dying at the domestic box office, it very well could make less. But what is for sure is the domestic/China/OS split is going to produce far less profit then the first film did.
 
Right. Fact is studios don't spend 255mil on a film hoping the domestic only hits 210-220mil. It is obvious by how much they spent Sony was hoping for growth, hoping for a 300mil gross in North America. They were aiming for the Spidey version of TDK and instead they got Star Trek: Into Darkness.
I wonder how much they believed the release date would help. It is kind of bizarre, but this could be a second time in a row where a WB tentpole killed the legs of a Spidey film.
 
I honestly believe the release date thing is over hyped beyond belief. You see it all the time whenever a big critically acclaimed film is released outside the 'traditional' blockbuster window it makes a truck load of money. This whole first weekend in May thing is overblown.
 
I wonder how much they believed the release date would help. It is kind of bizarre, but this could be a second time in a row where a WB tentpole killed the legs of a Spidey film.
I thought about the WB connection and thought it was funny. Stay away from Batman and Godzilla Spidey!

You know the opening of TASM 2 (as well as films like Thor) prove that your film isn't going to be a record breaker just because it has that slot. I hope Warner Brothers is listening. Marvel had the slot first, let them have the slot. No matter where they release a SvB it's going to make a crapload of money.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
202,391
Messages
22,096,417
Members
45,893
Latest member
KCA Masterpiece
Back
Top
monitoring_string = "afb8e5d7348ab9e99f73cba908f10802"