The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[DarthSkywalker]

I honestly believe the release date thing is over hyped beyond belief. You see it all the time whenever a big critically acclaimed film is released outside the 'traditional' blockbuster window it makes a truck load of money. This whole first weekend in May thing is overblown.

History kind of says otherwise. While big critically acclaimed film can catch fire outside of the normal windows, certain release dates have always been to the benefit of films. MOS left a lot of money on the table last year because Pacific Rim took the traditional WB mid-July slot.

 

[Liam_H]

$4.4M is the estimate so far for Friday? That would be quite bad.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I thought about the WB connection and thought it was funny. Stay away from Batman and Godzilla Spidey!

You know the opening of TASM 2 (as well as films like Thor) prove that your film isn't going to be a record breaker just because it has that slot. I hope Warner Brothers is listening. Marvel had the slot first, let them have the slot. No matter where they release a SvB it's going to make a crapload of money.

While the slot doesn't guarantee anything, it does help. A film that would make $400m one place, can add millions with the right release date. Imagine Thor or Origins if they hadn't had that spot. Could have dropped $50mil easily. And don't forget MOS.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

History kind of says otherwise. While big critically acclaimed film can catch fire outside of the normal windows, certain release dates have always been to the benefit of films. MOS left a lot of money on the table last year because Pacific Rim took the traditional WB mid-July slot.

It's a good slot but Alice in Wonderland made a billion in March and The Hunger Games made 408mil domestically and nearly 700mil worldwide in March. I'm not saying there aren't any advantages but I think they are overblown. I think Spider-Man would have opened to 91.6mil in March.

The May slot probably did help Thor though I'm not sure about Origins.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's a good slot but Alice in Wonderland made a billion in March and The Hunger Games made 408mil domestically and nearly 700mil worldwide in March. I'm not saying there aren't any advantages but I think they are overblown. I think Spider-Man would have opened to 91.6mil in March.

The May slot probably did help Thor though I'm not sure about Origins.

What studios are learning is releasing a big film outside of the 2 major dead peroids (Jan/Feb and Sept) can work, especially if it doesn't have much competition. March and April are becoming new hotspots because of this. The smartest thing about TWS release date is it pretty much had the month to itself.

Also, while The Hunger Games did great in March, there is a reason they moved the sequels to more traditional dates.

 

[Spider-Ock]

Um, I know that I am in the minority here, but I feel its kinda sad that movies like Godzilla may outgross quality flicks like TWS. To me, Godzilla is so bad that you wonder whether it took a span of days to make it. I hope its reign in the BO doesn't last long and DOFP succumbs any chance it may have of getting to a billion.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Um, I know that I am in the minority here, but I feel its kinda sad that movies like Godzilla may outgross quality flicks like TWS. To me, Godzilla is so bad that you wonder whether it took a span of days to make it. I hope its reign in the BO doesn't last long and DOFP succumbs any chance it may have of getting to a billion.

What an odd post for here.

 

[Liam_H]

Godzilla won't make a billion, I think you can rest easy on that.

 

[warhorse78]

Um, I know that I am in the minority here, but I feel its kinda sad that movies like Godzilla may outgross quality flicks like TWS. To me, Godzilla is so bad that you wonder whether it took a span of days to make it. I hope its reign in the BO doesn't last long and DOFP succumbs any chance it may have of getting to a billion.

Actually, I'm the opposite, I'm glad to see modern day people flocking to see such an old timer like Godzilla, it's refreshing to see teens and kids flocking to more than just superhero movies of the today and now.

 

[jmc]

History kind of says otherwise. While big critically acclaimed film can catch fire outside of the normal windows, certain release dates have always been to the benefit of films. MOS left a lot of money on the table last year because Pacific Rim took the traditional WB mid-July slot.

MoS left money at the table because it wasn't good enough. The reality is you can release any good film on any release date and people will come as has been shown. The importance of a specific date has been shown to be nothing more than an overblown piece of fluff more often than not.

 

[Erzengel]

Actually because of the quality of TASM2 I would have been upset if it made more than TWS.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I could have sworn that Fox had requested to borrow it from Sony and it went back after DD went back to marvel, but I could be wrong I suppose.

Update: even Fiege not sure of Kingpin rights!!

http://www.**************.com/fansites/CastleOfDoom/news/?a=98229

CBM is a decent site but google is much better at finding what your looking for. First link on "Kingpin Rights Marvel" links to a CBM article that says basically the same as the article I linked to dated 4/16/14 where Feige confirms they have AT LEAST partial rights of Kingpin, but Sony maybe able to use him, at the time he was unsure.

BTW try and find other sources for articles beside that site, as you can see you can't link to it

It's a good slot but Alice in Wonderland made a billion in March and The Hunger Games made 408mil domestically and nearly 700mil worldwide in March. I'm not saying there aren't any advantages but I think they are overblown. I think Spider-Man would have opened to 91.6mil in March.

The May slot probably did help Thor though I'm not sure about Origins.

The traditional May slot is really just an archaic thought in the movie biz left over from the blockbuster movie era of the 90's. They just love that extra day Memorial Day weekend gives them when in reality these days a movie stands or falls on it's own merits more often then not. Case in point the DOM BO for TASM (with exceptions to Bayfromers). It can be an extra boost but a movie is only going to hit a billion through a quality film, good WOM and legs etc. so that day is really moot.

Um, I know that I am in the minority here, but I feel its kinda sad that movies like Godzilla may outgross quality flicks like TWS. To me, Godzilla is so bad that you wonder whether it took a span of days to make it. I hope its reign in the BO doesn't last long and DOFP succumbs any chance it may have of getting to a billion.

Well to be fair it has Cranston and people associate him with quality after Breaking Bad. I for one am glad it will take Spidey off at the knees and I personally hope it has great legs and screws with DOFP since I hate FOX and boycott their CBM's. But as long as it deals a mortal wound to Sony and gives them something to think about I'll still be happy

 

[Iceman]

MoS left money at the table because it wasn't good enough. The reality is you can release any good film on any release date and people will come as has been shown. The importance of a specific date has been shown to be nothing more than an overblown piece of fluff more often than not.

That is .....exactly how I would have worded it sir

 

[DarthSkywalker]

MoS left money at the table because it wasn't good enough. The reality is you can release any good film on any release date and people will come as has been shown. The importance of a specific date has been shown to be nothing more than an overblown piece of fluff more often than not.

Spider-Man, Spider-Man 2 and Spider-Man 3 show the difference. Optimal release dates reap benefits.

 

[jmc]

Spider-Man, Spider-Man 2 and Spider-Man 3 show the difference. Optimal release dates reap benefits.

Yeah, and Avatar, Hunger Games, Alice in Wonderland and Captain America 2 show that dates don't matter. I could make any date 'optimal' if enough big budget movies were released on it in consecutive years.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, and Avatar, Hunger Games, Alice in Wonderland and Captain America 2 show that dates don't matter. I could make any date 'optimal' if enough big budget movies were released on it in consecutive years.

Avatar had a fantastic release date. A classic. The same as the LotR films. The week before Christmas is huge, as it can go straight through the holidays.

Catching Fire had a traditional big release date and made more money then the Hunger Games. The last two sequels will also be sharing that traditional release date.

And lets just talk about Cap 2 for a second. If the release date doesn't matter why are Disney and WB fighting over May 2016? Specifically with a Cap 3. Why wouldn't Disney have already moved the film up or back if it doesn't matter?

 

[Mr.M]

But Spiderman 1 wasn't an optimal release date. The week preceding Memorial Day weekend is, and the biggest franchise of all time has maintained that date for the past 40 years. Spidey went up against that and spanked it. Now that franchise not to be named can no longer hold that date without taking major blows to the chin. Too much fire power in May so it got the **** out while it could.

Spidey 3 did bad domestically compared to its predecessors because it was a bad film, and that's the point. If you want to survive the May onslaught, be on your "A" game. Spidey has not been that for some time.

January is horrible because the Xmas slate is still cleaning up. September and October feature popular sporting events and back to school, but March and April are ripe right now.

Nonetheless, Hollywood has not been releasing good films between Memorial Day and mid July in recent years. That's why Nolan's films were able to clean up on arrival. Or when you had a TF2 with non-existent competition due to a writers strike a couple years prior, which undermined the entire summer quarter collectively.

Mid June is just as good as May. Yeah you are a slice of ham in an all meat sandwich, but if you are a thicker and juicier slice than the rest, you can carry that flavor well into July with potentially less competition from the back end. It's no different than May, now that April is heating up.

It's all procedural Hollywood dogma when it really is something completely arbitrary these days.

 

[jmc]

Avatar had a fantastic release date. A classic. The same as the LotR films. The week before Christmas is huge, as it can go straight through the holidays.

Catching Fire had a traditional big release date and made more money then the Hunger Games. The last two sequels will also be sharing that traditional release date.

And lets just talk about Cap 2 for a second. If the release date doesn't matter why are Disney and WB fighting over May 2016? Specifically with a Cap 3. Why wouldn't Disney have already moved the film up or back if it doesn't matter?

Disney and WB are just having a pissing contest, it's not even about the damn date. I think you're missing my point a bit. Theoretically there's nothing to suggest any date on the calendar can't become as important as the first week in May. Years ago some big name film opened on that date and was successful, studios then thought 'well it worked well on that date for that film, let's mark that date for our big budget film', and that's continued ever since. It's a manufacture importance that has no bearing on reality which was shown with Amazing Spider-Man 2.

 

[rayc1971]

TASM2 is expected to make less than it's predecessor now? I thought it was predicted to be just over? Not that I'm upset about it, considering my thoughts on the movie.

the first one made 262mill domestic if this one makes only 200mill domestic with its hefty 250mill budget what do they do to fix this franchise?do they dare reboot again

 

[Mr.M]

Don't be surprised if BOTH Cap and BvS move. I can see Cap moving back to April. B vS late July. Apocalypse in May. Dr. Strange (or insert any MCU B-Lister) goes to a non-peak month. That would be perfect buffer for the genre collectively.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Why does Apocalypse get May?

 

[starkresilient]

3). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 3,991 theaters (-333) / $4.6M to $4.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $16.5M to $17M (-54%) / Total cume: $172M+ / Wk 3

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So over 50% drop it is. I would say the Memorial Day Holiday would help it and to a certain degree it will but not too much because of X-Men and then it's just going to have a terrible fall the following weekend.

 

[Mr.M]

Why does Apocalypse get May?

It really doesn't make a difference. Apocalypse can go to July as well. I just think studious would prefer their traditional dates, and Marvel studios may want more buffer and they may open earlier than normal. Heck ASM2 would have probably out grossed Cap had it opened April 1st this year.

 

[Wildcard]

I actually had thought TASM 2 was gonna do a lot more business, but as it stands I haven't be able to discern where exactly people are excited for it. I have literally yet to see anyone in the social media realm say anything correlating to having seen it or having plans to do so.

As for Godzilla, I want it to do as much business as possible. It doesn't have to make a billion dollars, though it would certainly be a huge shock if it did. All in all, with a budget of $160 million, better reviews, etc. it's going to def. outdo anything TASM 2 has done whether it's opening weekend numbers or otherwise.

TASM 2 has awful legs, legs that are gonna buckle & give at some point soon I suspect.