The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It really doesn't make a difference. Apocalypse can go to July as well. I just think studious would prefer their traditional dates, and Marvel studios may want more buffer and they may open earlier than normal. Heck ASM2 would have probably out grossed Cap had it opened April 1st this year.

If TASM 2 was the exact same film I don't think it would have outgrossed Cap 2.

 

[Erzengel]

That would mean that TWO and TASM2 were equal in quality.

 

[JKKS085]

3). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 3,991 theaters (-333) / $4.6M to $4.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $16.5M to $17M (-54%) / Total cume: $172M+ / Wk 3

It depends wether or not Godzilla is as front-loaded as we suspect it might be but if it holds decently on saturday, I don't see TASM2 making 16.5M through the week end out of a 4.6M friday (and much less 17M). On a side note it's funny to see that Deadline has been constantly overestimating TASM2 since day 1.

If the week end plays out like the last (but with strong competition in all its quadrants this time it's a bit unlikely IMO) and if that 4.6 figure holds it should make something like 16.1/16.2M. I would say that I still expect a sub 16M number though.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Deadline and other sites are obsessed with propping up TASM 2's box office performance in North America. Fact is, the film is doing great internationally and very disappointing in North America. It's Star Trek: Into Darkness all over again, except Into Darkness had legs.

Sub 16mil wouldn't surprise me. I'm sure we are in for another lets make this look good overestimation by Sony.

 

[Tobias]

From Deadline:

Its CinemaScore is a B+, matching that of The Amazing Spider-Man 2, now in third place after three weeks to take in an estimated $16.5M more for the weekend. Spidey’s cume is expected to reach around $172M+ this weekend and will definitely cross $600M worldwide. It needs to reach that magical $755M number to make a profit but Godzilla has definitely taken out more than its share of the domestic market, having scooped up the young male demo.


It seems like mid-700s is the goal for the film to turn a profit at the BO. The TV rights and DVDs will ultimately kick in and TASM2 will make money but studios want to make money at the BO. If they do everything else is icing on the cake.

For instance Thor 2 made 139 million at the BO before any other revenue streams. Per Deadline.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I actually expected an A- for Godzilla. It's a fanboy movie so it getting under an A- might spell trouble for it's legs. It not being a sequel could help it but I don't know. Cinemascore is often full of **** but that B+ usually means bad things for fanboy based action adventure films.

X-Men could very much take advantage if Godzilla has so-so word of mouth.

 

[LizardMan07]

How does the cinema score thing work?

 

[STARMAN]

The DVD sales for the first Amazing Spider-Man film were not exceptional. I doubt this film will have any great DVD sales.

 

[LizardMan07]

Unless there's a

*drumrolls*

directors cut!

 

[Tobias]

So WB has what its been seeking. Another franchise in Godzilla? With Hobbit and Potter waning WB was getting short of established franchises. Add in JL and the new Batman series to Godzilla and the studio must be happy right now.

 

[Spiderine]

So WB has what its been seeking. Another franchise in Godzilla? With Hobbit and Potter waning WB was getting short of established franchises. Add in JL and the new Batman series to Godzilla and the studio must be happy right now.

Actually WB plans to spinoff the Harry Potter Franchise based on other books.

 

[Tobias]

Actually WB plans to spinoff the Harry Potter Franchise based on other books.

True but that being a mega-hit franchise is not guaranteed.

Godzilla could do a billion?! Who knows. Only other potential billion dollar franchises WB has are JL and Batman.

What makes Godzilla so sweet is the budget. 160 million. A lesson SONY shoul take for tTASM3. Get the budget under control.

 

[JOE]

Solid Godzilla film. Hope that movie does well, it deserves it. Edwards making a HUGE Blockbuster debut, happy for the guy.

 

[Iceman]

True but that being a mega-hit franchise is not guaranteed.

Godzilla could do a billion?! Who knows. Only other potential billion dollar franchises WB has are JL and Batman.

What makes Godzilla so sweet is the budget. 160 million. A lesson SONY shoul take for tTASM3. Get the budget under control.

When they get round to developing the DC universe they can have a lot of good franchises and JL doesn't need to ever end like the main LOTR & Harry Potter series. Great news for them on Godzilla though.

 

[Tobias]

Solid Godzilla film. Hope that movie does well, it deserves it. Edwards making a HUGE Blockbuster debut, happy for the guy.

I wonder if Godzilla is getting an extra boost cause its different. Not a superhero film. It'll be interesting to see how it does relative to DOFP.

 

[hippie_hunter]

So WB has what its been seeking. Another franchise in Godzilla? With Hobbit and Potter waning WB was getting short of established franchises. Add in JL and the new Batman series to Godzilla and the studio must be happy right now.

Warner Bros. was just distributing the film in all non-Japanese markets. Legendary Pictures has the rights to Godzilla and I think any future sequel will have Universal distribute the film.

 

[JKKS085]

BO update from Deadline:

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 looks more like a $16M weekend after a $4.5M Friday night take. It still will end the three-day with about $171M+ and is inching towards I’d say maybe $215M to $220M now domestically so will have to make up the rest of what it needs to in international markets. Simply put, it’s playing out and the lizard has taken center stage.

With Godzilla on its way to score the best opening week end of the year (so far) with estimates now flirting with 100M (good 10% projected drop on saturday apparently) and Neighbors holding extremely well (a sub 45% drop is probable for the 3 days) TASM2 is set to suffer the most this week end. A 55% + drop is at this point a given.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Where are Deadline getting that 215-220mil projection? Have they actually set down and crunched the numbers? God I hate that site.

 

[Tobias]

Warner Bros. was just distributing the film in all non-Japanese markets. Legendary Pictures has the rights to Godzilla and I think any future sequel will have Universal distribute the film.

Wow. Didn't know that. Legendary split with WB recently so are they aligned with Universal now?

 

[Arach Knight]

Sony's money problems are not as dire as many people make them out to be.

Sony's money problems are not necessarily a death knell, but dire is not an entirely inaccurate descriptor either.

Sony has made two separate real estate transactions in 2013, selling off their Tokyo and New York headquarters for $1.3 billion and $1.1 billion respectively. Sony's electronics division is arguably their only ailing division now that they have shed their Vaio division and this year saw an increase in revenue for Sony simply because of favorable currency exchange rates.

Despite those facts, Sony still managed to lose $1.3 billion as a company, not just a single division.That scenario is quite telling.

According to reputable portfolio management firm, Macroaxis, Sony has a 46% chance of going bankrupt in the next two years.

http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/SNE--Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

Sony's equity (value of all liabilities subtracted from the value of all assets) is only $23 billion, which only highlights why a $1 billion loss is a big deal. It isn't as if Sony can absorb hits for some prolonged period of time. History has already shown us this song and dance with numerous other companies, especially in tech.

There is a reason why Sony has been leaning hard on the Spider-Man franchise and has been stupid enough to announce annual films and spin offss based on the property. That isn't an act derived from wise business acumen, it is a strata born of desperation.

 

[starkresilient]

@BoxOffice
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 took in an estimated $4.5M on Friday. Domestic total now stands at $159.87M. #TheAmazingSpiderMan2

 

[JKKS085]

Where are Deadline getting that 215-220mil projection? Have they actually set down and crunched the numbers? God I hate that site.

That's a very optimistic projection to say the least and there's pretty much no chance this film ever gets close to 215M (let alone 220) at this point.
Maybe there's agenda behind these numbers or they are just being lazy.

 

[Tobias]

That's a very optimistic projection to say the least and there's pretty much no chance this film ever gets close to 215M (let alone 220) at this point.
Maybe there's agenda behind these numbers or they are just being lazy.

Guru is now saying a final total of just over 200 million (205?). Either way I think SONY may walk this to 210 plus.

 

[BlackFox]

BO update from Deadline:

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 looks more like a $16M weekend after a $4.5M Friday night take. It still will end the three-day with about $171M+ and is inching towards I’d say maybe $215M to $220M now domestically so will have to make up the rest of what it needs to in international markets. Simply put, it’s playing out and the lizard has taken center stage.

With Godzilla on its way to score the best opening week end of the year (so far) with estimates now flirting with 100M (good 10% projected drop on saturday apparently) and Neighbors holding extremely well (a sub 45% drop is probable for the 3 days) TASM2 is set to suffer the most this week end. A 55% + drop is at this point a given.

They think ASM2 has another $60m in the tank domestically.....

 

[Spiderine]

Warner Bros. was just distributing the film in all non-Japanese markets. Legendary Pictures has the rights to Godzilla and I think any future sequel will have Universal distribute the film.

Really? So we could actually get a Godzilla/King Kong crossover now?