The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[XSpidercideX]

That's a very optimistic projection to say the least and there's pretty much no chance this film ever gets close to 215M (let alone 220) at this point.
Maybe there's agenda behind these numbers or they are just being lazy.

Depends on how it does over memorial day. It could be at 176 by this Thursday and around 193 next Thursday. Then summer hits, so it may be ok during June because families may go see during summer weekdays. Weekly cummulative totals may be something like this:

110.7 1
155.3 2
176.4 3
193.4 4
202.2 5
208.5 6
212.1 7
214.2 8
215.6 9
216.3 10
216.7 11
217.0 12
217.2 13
217.3 14

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's a very optimistic projection to say the least and there's pretty much no chance this film ever gets close to 215M (let alone 220) at this point.
Maybe there's agenda behind these numbers or they are just being lazy.

I think it's a mix of agenda and lazy reporting.

I'm not asking them to exaggerate how lack luster the numbers are but I would like better reporting. I mean X-Men and that Jolie movie are coming out so yeah this film's domestic numbers are pretty much screwed.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Sony's money problems are not necessarily a death knell, but dire is not an entirely inaccurate descriptor either.

Sony has made two separate real estate transactions in 2013, selling off their Tokyo and New York headquarters for $1.3 billion and $1.1 billion respectively. Sony's electronics division is arguably their only ailing division now that they have shed their Vaio division and this year saw an increase in revenue for Sony simply because of favorable currency exchange rates.

Despite those facts, Sony still managed to lose $1.3 billion as a company, not just a single division.That scenario is quite telling.

According to reputable portfolio management firm, Macroaxis, Sony has a 46% chance of going bankrupt in the next two years.

http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/SNE--Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

Sony's equity (value of all liabilities subtracted from the value of all assets) is only $23 billion, which only highlights why a $1 billion loss is a big deal. It isn't as if Sony can absorb hits for some prolonged period of time. History has already shown us this song and dance with numerous other companies, especially in tech.

There is a reason why Sony has been leaning hard on the Spider-Man franchise and has been stupid enough to announce annual films and spin offss based on the property. That isn't an act derived from wise business acumen, it is a strata born of desperation.

Thats all well and good but your Godzilla "prediction" was pretty ridiculous. Im sure you can see that now. Id avoid definitive/declarative statements about these kinds of things in the future.

 

[JKKS085]

Guru is now saying a final total of just over 200 million (205?). Either way I think SONY may walk this to 210 plus.

Well if the week end plays out like early estimates suggest I think next week end is going to be brutal with DoFP out. I can see another 50%+ drop for the three days with a steep drop in its theater count as well. Memorial day will help soften the 4-days drop but I'm pretty confident it'll fall behind TTDW after 24 days. Thor had a steep 3rd week end drop but steady week days overall in its third week (with an averaged 26% drop) and an excellent 4th week end hold (thanks to Thanksgiving no pun intended).

DoFP will kill whatever legs TASM2 has left, Maleficient then will take what's left a of the kid-family audience (which should'nt be a lot anyways). I don't think there's a chance it recovers from all the competition it'll face. I mean it collapsed against an r-rated comedy, it's about to drop significantly against a sci-fi/disaster movie and I don't think things are gonna get any better against another comicbook movie (and a well received one) or against a high-profile Disney film (especially if early trackings hold).

At this point I think 205M is going to be a challenge. Sony will probably play the double feature card early on, on 22 Jump Street's opening week end I'd guess, but I think it won't be enough to beat Thor The Dark World's final haul even with summer days ahead and kids out of school (the movie won't have enough juice left at this point).
Actually I think it could land anywhere between 195 and 205M but the point is Sony will make everything to have it gross past 200M. But it's going to be a slow crawl to that milestone for sure.

 

[Tobias]

Well if the week end plays out like early estimates suggest I think next week end is going to be brutal with DoFP out. I can see another 50%+ drop for the three days with a steep drop in its theater count as well. Memorial day will help soften the 4-days drop but I'm pretty confident it'll fall behind TTDW after 24 days. Thor had a steep 3rd week end drop but steady week days overall in its third week (with an averaged 26% drop) and an excellent 4th week end hold (thanks to Thanksgiving no pun intended).

DoFP will kill whatever legs TASM2 has left, Maleficient then will take what's left a of the kid-family audience (which should'nt be a lot anyways). I don't think there's a chance it recovers from all the competition it'll face. I mean it collapsed against an r-rated comedy, it's about to drop significantly against a sci-fi/disaster movie and I don't think things are gonna get any better against another comicbook movie (and a well received one) or against a high-profile Disney film (especially if early trackings hold).

At this point I think 205M is going to be a challenge. Sony will probably play the double feature card early on, on 22 Jump Street's opening week end I'd guess, but I think it won't be enough to beat Thor The Dark World's final haul even with summer days ahead and kids out of school (the movie won't have enough juice left at this point).
Actually I think it should land anywhere between 195 and 205M but the point is Sony will make everything to have it gross past 200M. But it's going to be a slow crawl to that milestone for sure.

You are correct. I just think TASM2 gets past 200 and SONY walks it to 210.

WB walked SR from 192 to 200 so it can be done. Re-relase in dollar theatres is what they did with SR. I was surprised WB didn't try to walk MOS to 300 million. It ended up just shy of 292 million.

 

[Arach Knight]

Thats all well and good but your Godzilla "prediction" was pretty ridiculous. Im sure you can see that now. Id avoid definitive/declarative statements about these kinds of things in the future.

Your post couldn't be more irrelevant. I made that comment almost a week ago in the previous edition of this topic. The conversation has since moved on. Not only that, but you quoted my most recent post and made a response that has absolutely no bearing on what my post was discussing. Unless you are aiming to exhibit the art of the non sequitur, I really do not understand why you would engage in such an endeavor.

However, to humor your statement, Godzilla sits at $39 million. Between the rest of today and tomorrow it could indeed reach another $21 million to reach $60 million or beyond. But it isn't as if my incorrectness is of any actual importance. This is a thread of predictions. All that ultimately matters is the final results at the actual box office.

More on point, my prediction for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 seems to be on track as the film is struggling to reach $600 million total and $200 million domestically. The film still needs ~$90 million to reach the high end of my estimate (I estimated between $550-650 million). The film currently sits at ~$559 million. It is more or less going to be up to the overseas market to help close that gap, if at all possible.

Lastly, if you have a burning desire to feel right, at least do so in a timely manner rather than unwarranted rebuttals that I personally don't care for and I am sure no one else cared about since my prediction was disregarded as the conversation progressed. Stay on topic, sir.

 

[JKKS085]

Depends on how it does over memorial day. It could be at 176 by this Thursday and around 193 next Thursday. Then summer hits, so it may be ok during June because families may go see during summer weekdays.

I would say 174,5/175,5 this Thursday (it would have to have a similarish week days hold than last week to get ot 175.5, I don't think this is happening given the competition and the screen drop) with a 7/7.75M, 3 days week end ahead, 9.2/10.2 for the 4 days week end, that would put it around 186.5/189M next Thursday.

I think your projections are a bit optimistic IMO even with summer ahead.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I would say 174,5/175,5 this Thursday (it would have to have a similarish week days hold than last week to get ot 175.5, I don't think this is happening given the competition and the screen drop) with a 7/7.75M, 3 days week end ahead, 9.2/10.2 for the 4 days week end, that would put it around 186.5/189M next Thursday.

I think your projections are a bit optimistic IMO even with summer ahead.

Yeah, probably so. I think it may be around 190 instead of 194, but that should just adjust my total down a few million, so it could come in between 210-215, and Sony could still walk it up a bit.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Your post couldn't be more irrelevant. I made that comment almost a week ago in the previous edition of this topic. The conversation has since moved on. Not only that, but you quoted my most recent post and made a response that has absolutely no bearing on what my post was discussing. Unless you are aiming to exhibit the art of the non sequitur, I really do not understand why you would engage in such an endeavor.

However, to humor your statement, Godzilla sits at $39 million. Between the rest of today and tomorrow it could indeed reach another $21 million to reach $60 million or beyond. But it isn't as if my incorrectness is of any actual importance. This is a thread of predictions. All that ultimately matters is the final results at the actual box office.

More on point, my prediction for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 seems to be on track as the film is struggling to reach $600 million total and $200 million domestically. The film still needs ~$90 million to reach the high end of my estimate (I estimated between $550-650 million). The film currently sits at ~$559 million. It is more or less going to be up to the overseas market to help close that gap, if at all possible.

Lastly, if you have a burning desire to feel right, at least do so in a timely manner rather than unwarranted rebuttals that I personally don't care for and I am sure no one else cared about since my prediction was disregarded as the conversation progressed. Stay on topic, sir.

LOL, it's going to fly by 600 million total this weekend, around 640 million by Monday. It gained 26 million from Mon-Thurs overseas. Tack on about 40 million this weekend and that puts it at 470 million overseas. 470 + 170 = 640.

 

[JKKS085]

You are correct. I just think TASM2 gets past 200 and SONY walks it to 210.

WB walked SR from 192 to 200 so it can be done. Re-relase in dollar theatres is what they did with SR. I was surprised WB didn't try to walk MOS to 300 million. It ended up just shy of 292 million.

Maybe because it didn't have 8 millions left in the bank.
At some point there's just so much you can do, Avengers got 4 or 5 more millions out of its septembre reexpanding iirc. If hypothetically TASM2 ends up around 192 millions no re-release would put it past 200M but if it sits at 196/197 Sony will definitely give the push. If they are hellbent on beating TTDW's numbers and the movie stops a few hundred thousand dollars behind it there will be a re-release for sure.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Maybe because it didn't have 8 millions left in the bank.
At some point there's just so much you can do, Avengers got 4 or 5 more millions out of its septembre reexpanding iirc. If hypothetically TASM2 ends up around 192 millions no re-release would put it past 200M but if it sits at 196/197 Sony will definitely give the push. If they are hellbent on beating TTDW's numbers and the movie stops a few hundred thousand dollars behind it there will be a re-release for sure.

I don't think it's going to have a problem reaching 200 million, in 2012 it had Avengers an The Dark Knight Rises. I don't think X-Men and Godzilla are on the same level to pull crowds away more than those.

 

[Arach Knight]

LOL, it's going to fly by 600 million total this weekend, around 640 million by Monday.

$640 million by Monday? You think this film is going to gross $80 million this weekend? You are aware that it couldn't even muster $40 million last week up against an R rated comedy, even though it was only Spider-Man's second weekend her in North America? Now it is competing with the film that beat it last week as well as the current box office topper. Well...I admire your optimism. We'll just have to see how that goes now that the film has to compete up against a proper blockbuster.

 

[XSpidercideX]

$640 million by Monday? You think this film is going to gross $80 million this weekend? You are aware that it couldn't even muster $40 million last week up against an R rated comedy, even though it was only Spider-Man's second weekend her in North America? Now it is competing with the film that beat it last week as well as the current box office topper. Well...I admire your optimism. We'll just have to see how that goes now that the film has to compete up against a proper blockbuster.

It will get abotu 15 million here and probably about 40 million overseas. It's overseas total is at 430 million as of Thursday.

 

[Spiderine]

Its going to crawl to 200 million, maybe slightly over. There is no way in hell it gets to 215 million. Its got two more major releases with Xmen and Malificent in coming weeks. They will eat Spidey's lunch.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It should do 15.5-16mil-ish this weekend. If it was headed for 13-14mil I might doubt 200mil but it's not so I think it will get there.

 

[TalismanRing]

You are correct. I just think TASM2 gets past 200 and SONY walks it to 210.

WB walked SR from 192 to 200 so it can be done. Re-relase in dollar theatres is what they did with SR. I was surprised WB didn't try to walk MOS to 300 million. It ended up just shy of 292 million.

$300m was out of the question. $290m was what they were pushing for with MOS

MOS's 7th w/e was $749,233 ($286,807,505) vs SR 7th w/e $1,242,461 ($192,594,159)

Almost every big film gets a re-release in dollar theaters. LEGO just had one last week.

TDW was at $186m after Thanksgiving w/e then had the usual post Thanksgiving tumble the next w/e for a $193,711,187 total. Spider-man with Memorial Day w/e and summer days coming up should be higher than that after it's 4th w/e. Even with more competition coming up I don't see how it fails to pass $200m

 

[JKKS085]

Yeah, probably so. I think it may be around 190 instead of 194, but that should just adjust my total down a few million, so it could come in between 210-215, and Sony could still walk it up a bit.

Actually if my 186,5M number is right and if the rest of your projections hold your numbers would be off by 3,4% ie 7.3 millions which would indeed mean a finish around 210M dom. Now right off the bat and I may be wrong, I think your projected hold between weeks 4 (with memorial day) and 5 (17 to 8.6 which would mean a sub 50% drop) is extremely optimistic.

But anyways you are not too far off unlike Deadline with there 220M projections.

 

[XSpidercideX]

$640 million by Monday? You think this film is going to gross $80 million this weekend? You are aware that it couldn't even muster $40 million last week up against an R rated comedy, even though it was only Spider-Man's second weekend her in North America? Now it is competing with the film that beat it last week as well as the current box office topper. Well...I admire your optimism. We'll just have to see how that goes now that the film has to compete up against a proper blockbuster.

It went up 127 million last week overseas. That is 7 days, not just weekend btw.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's going to fall hard after whatever Memorial Day boost it gets.

 

[JKKS085]

I don't think it's going to have a problem reaching 200 million, in 2012 it had Avengers an The Dark Knight Rises. I don't think X-Men and Godzilla are on the same level to pull crowds away more than those.

The big difference is that TASM was released 2 months aways from The Avengers while Godzilla and Days Of Future Past are immediate, direct competition. When you factor in the way TASM2 held its ground against an r-rated comedy (ie poorly) the prospects aren't good for its numbers when it'll face other action/cbm flicks and this week end's estimates already show that trend.
Now it doesn't mean it won't get to 200M (basically it was just me speculating) but I'm still confident it won't make much more than that (well at least I don't think it'll gross past 210M and there's a decent chance it doesn't beat TTDW IMO).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's going to fall hard after whatever Memorial Day boost it gets.

A boost that will be eaten up by Godzilla and especially DoFP. Just for perspective, this film is looking at $50m less domestically then the TASM. That is ridiculously bad.

 

[Erzengel]

Friday estimates for ASM2 is 4.5 million.

 

[Krystal]

$4.5 million Friday--that'll be less than $14 million weekend--move along and let sony try to pick up the pieces and make course changes.

 

[XSpidercideX]

$4.5 million Friday--that'll be less than $14 million weekend--move along and let sony try to pick up the pieces and make course changes.

No, thats about 15.5.

4.5
6.7
4.3

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A boost that will be eaten up by Godzilla and especially DoFP. Just for perspective, this film is looking at $50m less domestically then the TASM. That is ridiculously bad.

That is bad because the first film wasn't exactly some 350mil smash. A drop is fine and expected when your film explodes out of the gate but when it only did 262mil? Yeah it dropped for a reason.

Lackluster reception to the first film, terrible over barring marketing campaign, nothing new or interesting was added to Spider-Man's world and last but not least...bad word of mouth mixed in with comp from Godzilla and Days of Future Past.

I honestly would be shocked if this film hit 220mil, shocked snd amazed. I could see 215-16mil but 220? Nope.