The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Tymminator]

A boost that will be eaten up by Godzilla and especially DoFP. Just for perspective, this film is looking at $50m less domestically then the TASM. That is ridiculously bad.

Seriously, it speaks volumes.

$4.5 million Friday--that'll be less than $14 million weekend--move along and let sony try to pick up the pieces and make course changes.

If Sony goes ahead as they planned before, they are in for nothing but pain.

 

[JKKS085]

A boost that will be eaten up by Godzilla and especially DoFP. Just for perspective, this film is looking at $50m less domestically then the TASM. That is ridiculously bad.

And barely above half of 2002 Spider-Man's domestic gross.
If you account in tickets sold you would be able to say that the franchise lost almost 2/3rd of its domestic attendance in the span of 12 years (69,5M tickets for SM1, TASM2 should finish with around 24,5M).

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I actually had thought TASM 2 was gonna do a lot more business, but as it stands I haven't be able to discern where exactly people are excited for it. I have literally yet to see anyone in the social media realm say anything correlating to having seen it or having plans to do so.

As for Godzilla, I want it to do as much business as possible. It doesn't have to make a billion dollars, though it would certainly be a huge shock if it did. All in all, with a budget of $160 million, better reviews, etc. it's going to def. outdo anything TASM 2 has done whether it's opening weekend numbers or otherwise.

TASM 2 has awful legs, legs that are gonna buckle & give at some point soon I suspect.

I think Godzilla is going to hack TASM2's legs off at the knees and I'm sure DOFP is going to give it a shallow grave

Depends on how it does over memorial day. It could be at 176 by this Thursday and around 193 next Thursday. Then summer hits, so it may be ok during June because families may go see during summer weekdays. Weekly cummulative totals may be something like this:

110.7 1
155.3 2
176.4 3
193.4 4
202.2 5
208.5 6
212.1 7
214.2 8
215.6 9
216.3 10
216.7 11
217.0 12
217.2 13
217.3 14

You're putting WAY too much faith in it's overseas legs my friend. Godzilla is taking a large chunk of the theaters this week and DOFP will take many more. You have to remember the overseas markets really love the spectacle of big budget American movies and that's why Spidey has put up such great numbers in foreign markets. Both Godzilla and DOFP have that in spades and are considered by most to be superior stories. Add to that when Maleficent comes out and the any shred of DOM BO that was left will be gone.

I predict that this thing may limp to $200m DOM and low $700m-ish WW and that's assuming the other big movies coming out don't perform as well as they are expected too which will really hurt TASM2's chances.

Also remember the OS market profits are much less so their numbers are nowhere near as important as it's DOM run. They are more for the pissing contest with other films

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

This is the Titanic. Sony will try and rearrange the deck chairs but this ship is going down. The writing is on the wall, they've ruined this character and no desperate play at an expanded the universe will change anything.

 

[Orba]

Another factor with overseas markets it that the film has been out for over a month in some countries. So while this is the third week of release in the US, in much of europe they are in their fifth week, if they are even still showing it.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I wonder how many more people will randomly post Fri's numbers, seems like I've seen them posted 6-7 times now. What's the point of participating in a thread if you don't read what other people post? We are past midday on the east coast here, does anyone really think the numbers weren't reported by someone yet? This is one of the busiest places on the Hype currently

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This is the Titanic. Sony will try and rearrange the deck chairs but this ship is going down. The writing is on the wall, they've ruined this character and no desperate play at an expanded the universe will change anything.

Yep, this is the series last hoorah (because of overseas numbers) expect the next one to make 145-170mil at best domestically and begin to start losing it's international audience.

Sony better be careful about how they spend that 275-300mil it's probably going to cost the 3rd one to make. At least bring on a half-way decent screenwriter for a re-write.

 

[themaster]

Going back a few pages, that Avi Arad quote is one of the craziest things I've read in a while, what with all that stuff about Spider-Man being the king. I know that hype and confidence are important, but he sounds like someone completely out of touch with that statement. Sure, there was a time when Spider-Man ruled the box office, but what exactly is the cinematic Spider-Man the "king" of now? Mediocre movies and utterly embarrassing box office from the look of things. The Spider-Man films have gone from leading the charge to playing catch-up, and it's pretty painful to witness. It has now become blindingly obvious that this reboot is a textbook lesson in how not to do it.

Just out of interest, how is TASM 2 doing internationally compared to, say, TWS? I find it almost impossible to work that sort of thing out. I know that it had something like a two-week head-start on the US release. Is TASM 2 doing better than TASM 1 internationally?

If the MCU wasn't happening and doing well, a film like TASM 2 would be the kind of film that would have most people thinking 'okay, enough with the superhero movies.' How the mighty have fallen.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Wow. Didn't know that. Legendary split with WB recently so are they aligned with Universal now?

Basically Legendary's deal wtih Warner Bros. was just about up. When it came to negotiating a new deal, Legendary wanted to continue with their 50/50 deal the way they did with the Batman, Superman, Hangover, Inception, and 300 films. Warner Bros. on the other hand saw a lot of those films as huge successes and wanted to reduce Legendary's stake. So Legendary started seeking new partners, which would end up being Universal. I think the only way they will be working with Warner Bros. in the near future is on Christopher Nolan productions due to them having a close relationship with Nolan.

Also, to strengthen their hand in finding a new partner, they worked to acquire/develop some IPs like Godzilla, Warcraft, Brilliance, The Spook's Apprentice, Mass Effect, and Pacific Rim.

Really? So we could actually get a Godzilla/King Kong crossover now?

If Thomas Tull wants that it could happen. Tull has been reported to be really into making fanboy-esque productions because not only is he a fanboy at heart, but that is where Legendary has been very successful at. That said, considering the sheer size of Godzilla compared to King Kong, I don't think that would work very well.

Where I think we're going to see Legendary's influence at Universal take hold is on films like Hellboy 3 and revitalizing the Universal Monsters.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's doing better than WS overseas, it's going to make over 500mil. The international numbers are the only thing saving the film from flop status. TASM 2 is benefiting greatly from the expanding overseas market (and the lack of massive competition), especially China. It's definitely not all doom and gloom. The total doom and gloom is going to happen when the 3rd film comes out.

 

[Mr.M]

Really? So we could actually get a Godzilla/King Kong crossover now?

Who is replacing Legendary for Warner's? Syncopy? But Universal should be thrilled with that. They are building a nice repertoire for themselves. Definitely think PJ should do a crossover film to follow Jurassic World and WoW, for 2017 or 2020 or so.

 

[Arach Knight]

And barely above half of 2002 Spider-Man's domestic gross.
If you account in tickets sold you would be able to say that the franchise lost almost 2/3rd of its domestic attendance in the span of 12 years (69,5M tickets for SM1, TASM2 should finish with around 24,5M).

The real kicker about the juxtaposition is the fact that there were no higher priced 3D screenings for the original Spider-Man. Even unadjusted for inflation, thi second franchise is disappointing, financially speaking.

 

[Wildcard]

I think Godzilla is going to hack TASM2's legs off at the knees and I'm sure DOFP is going to give it a shallow grave

I think you're 100% correct, my friend. No way TASM 2 can withstand what Godzilla is gonna do both internationally & domestically, especially since people are actually saying the movie is GOOD.

And while DOFP isn't one of the movies I'm supremely excited for this year, it's definitely going to do some great business. Enough business to be considered profitable.

The grave has already been dug, though. And TASM 2 is just lying there helpless, unable to defend itself as it is prepared to be rolled into said grave. t:

I guess it helps that Godzilla was made for $160 (way less than even a comparable film like Pacific Rim) so it's gonna do great business just by not having a super-sized budget.

Spider-Man will continue to suffer as long as Sony has the "spend more money thinking it'll make a piece of crap look better" syndrome.

 

[marcvader]

Lol. Spidey has no chance against you morbid bastards.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Who is replacing Legendary for Warner's? Syncopy?

Syncopy is a personal production company for Christopher Nolan, not a full fledged film finance/production company the way Legendary Pictures is. Think of Syncopy more along the lines of Amblin Entertainment (Steven Spielberg), WingNut Films (Peter Jackson), Bat Hat Harry (Bryan Singer), Appian Way (Leonardo DiCaprio), Plan B Entertainment (Brad Pitt), Scott Free Productions (Ridley and Tony Scott), Lightstorm Entertainment (James Cameron), and Bad Robot Productions (J.J. Abrams).

To replace Legendary, Warner Bros. signed a deal with RatPac-Dune. They also have a production deal with Village Roadshow.

 

[Wildcard]

Lol. Spidey has no chance against you morbid bastards.

Off with his webbed head!

Nah, I'm kidding. Sony just needs to get their **** together. t:

 

[Tobias]

Syncopy is a personal production company for Christopher Nolan, not a full fledged film finance/production company the way Legendary Pictures is. Think of Syncopy more along the lines of Amblin Entertainment (Steven Spielberg), WingNut Films (Peter Jackson), Bat Hat Harry (Bryan Singer), Appian Way (Leonardo DiCaprio), Plan B Entertainment (Brad Pitt), Scott Free Productions (Ridley and Tony Scott), Lightstorm Entertainment (James Cameron), and Bad Robot Productions (J.J. Abrams).

To replace Legendary, Warner Bros. signed a deal with RatPac-Dune. They also have a production deal with Village Roadshow.

The entertainment media acts, though, as if this is WB's film. One story said Godzilla may mean WB is the first studio to get to a billion this year.

But WB is just the distributor? I think you said that. Does that mean they make less money than if this had truly been a WB owned vehicle?

So for Godzilla 2 Universal will be the distributor and the owning studio?

 

[themaster]

It's doing better than WS overseas, it's going to make over 500mil. The international numbers are the only thing saving the film from flop status. TASM 2 is benefiting greatly from the expanding overseas market (and the lack of massive competition), especially China. It's definitely not all doom and gloom. The total doom and gloom is going to happen when the 3rd film comes out.

Thanks, I SEE SPIDEY.

 

[Mr.M]

The entertainment media acts, though, as if this is WB's film. One story said Godzilla may mean WB is the first studio to get to a billion this year.

But WB is just the distributor? I think you said that. Does that mean they make less money than if this had truly been a WB owned vehicle?

So for Godzilla 2 Universal will be the distributor and the owning studio?

The distributor always gets credit, especially one with the clout WB has. But their deal was 50/50, so they only see half those profits, the other half going to Universal. Even Paramount was getting massive praise for their marketing work on the MCU. Now that's over and done with, but they made off like bandits on that deal. You can make the best film ever, but without a big time distributor, nobody's going to see your film. WB deserves massive credit.

 

[Tobias]

The distributor always gets credit, especially one with the clout WB has. But their deal was 50/50, so they only see half those profits, the other half going to Universal. Even Paramount was getting massive praise for their marketing work on the MCU. Now that's over and done with, but they made off like bandits on that deal. You can make the best film ever, but without a big time distributor, nobody's going to see your film. WB deserves massive credit.

WB does deserve credit. Its unfortunate only in that they can't bank it as one of the mega-franchises they are looking for now to replace Hobbit and such which are winding down.

Don't the other half of the profits go to Legendary?

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Your post couldn't be more irrelevant. I made that comment almost a week ago in the previous edition of this topic. The conversation has since moved on. Not only that, but you quoted my most recent post and made a response that has absolutely no bearing on what my post was discussing. Unless you are aiming to exhibit the art of the non sequitur, I really do not understand why you would engage in such an endeavor.

However, to humor your statement, Godzilla sits at $39 million. Between the rest of today and tomorrow it could indeed reach another $21 million to reach $60 million or beyond. But it isn't as if my incorrectness is of any actual importance. This is a thread of predictions. All that ultimately matters is the final results at the actual box office.

More on point, my prediction for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 seems to be on track as the film is struggling to reach $600 million total and $200 million domestically. The film still needs ~$90 million to reach the high end of my estimate (I estimated between $550-650 million). The film currently sits at ~$559 million. It is more or less going to be up to the overseas market to help close that gap, if at all possible.

Lastly, if you have a burning desire to feel right, at least do so in a timely manner rather than unwarranted rebuttals that I personally don't care for and I am sure no one else cared about since my prediction was disregarded as the conversation progressed. Stay on topic, sir.

I think when you make an asinine prediction that flies in the face of every professional projection as well as the general consensus, while citing truly irrelevant stats that are themselves non sequiturs , you should at minimum have at least one follow up post to address said prediction. It was a ridiculous baseless and easily and almost immediately refutable statement.

I guess its easily to write and say foolish things when you just forget it ever happened. Personally I tend to take ownership of what I say and write regardless of the outcome.

Oh and you made the prediction in this thread not the Godzilla thread so your complaint about being off topic is laughable . Oh and here's a tidbit from your original post:

" For Godzilla to open at $60 million would require a miracle or a dramatic and unexpected shift in the American zeitgeist when it comes to giant-monster films. "

A miracle? Really? And given that the projections were already in , as well as many other indicators, how can you say it was "unexpected"? By whom? You? But I thought you believed in miracles...

On topic: given whatever bizarre methodology you use to make your "predictions", the fact that your spidey2 prediction also looks way off base is no surprise. Under #600m was NEVER even a remote possibility. For very simple and obvious reasons (try using something called Google with search words "spider man" and "international box office").

 

[Arach Knight]

I think when you make an asinine prediction that flies in the face of every professional projection as well as the general consensus, while citing truly irrelevant stats that are themselves non sequiturs , you should at minimum have at least one follow up post to address said prediction. It was a ridiculous baseless and easily and almost immediately refutable statement.

Oh and you made the prediction in this thread not the Godzilla thread so your complaint about being off topic is laughable . Oh and here's a tidbit from your original post:

" For Godzilla to open at $60 million would require a miracle or a dramatic and unexpected shift in the American zeitgeist when it comes to giant-monster films. "

A miracle? Really? And given that the projections were already in , as well as many other indicators, how can you say it was "unexpected"? By whom? You? But I thought you believed in miracles...

On topic: given whatever bizarre methodology you use to make your "predictions", the fact that your spidey2 prediction also looks way off base is no surprise. Under #600m was NEVER even a remote possibility. For very simple and obvious reasons (try using something called Google with search words "spider man" and "international box office").

1) You are clearly the sort of individual that is ostensibly intelligent, yet always leaves a clue that sufficient scrutiny will immediately reveal otherwise. For instance, you don't understand what a non sequitur is.

Referencing the domestic performance of other giant monster films, in a response to an other poster's statement about the performance expectations for Godzilla, is called contextually appropriate juxtaposition. Quoting my post about The Amazing Spider-Man 2, and making an unrelated, infant-grade tantrum about a separate Godzilla post I made, is a proper example of a non sequitur.

2) Your use of the word asinine, though likely unintentional, invokes the famed Princess Bride meme: “You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means." My prediction will likely be incorrect, but it was hardly without a reasonable foundation. I observed a trend with similar films and expected a similar performance based on that precedent.

3) I posted a Godzilla prediction in response to a person's argument that Godzilla would erode TASM2's box office take because Godzilla was going to have a huge open. I disagreed and made my reply. So...yeah...my post was on topic.

4) When did I ever say that Spider-Man would never cross $600 million? I said it wasn't likely to hit $640 million from domestic take for this weekend. I said my high end estimate is $650 million. And yes, my low end is $550, but I never said it would miss $600 million. Now you are just making up things to whine about lol.

5) Whilst engaged in your rather poor show of character and inablilty to appropriately disagree (i.e. in a mature manner), you seem to have missed the fact that Spider Fan engaged me about my Godzilla prediction, at which point, I revised my opinion and conceded that I will have to wait and see how the film peeforms. I even stated that I hope the film succeeds. I have no issues with giving audience to differing opinions. Unfortunately, your actions here suggest that you are the sad sort that believes that winning an Internet debate actually means something. As if you can win favor by "sticking it" to that one guy in the Spider-Man box office thread LOL.

As I said before, the conversation moved forward long ago, but you just had to prove your (unimportant) point. After all, it is unbearable to think that somewhere, someone on the Internet may be incorrect or disagree with you! How dare any person not agree with crowd consensus and analysts! How could any person expect civil discourse about a difference of opinion?! It's absurd! We must all rush forth to insult any person we disagree with, call them foolish and stupid, then in ironic fashion, make assertions and misuse collegiate words to such an effect that it reveals that we are the one that is foolish.

With that said, I suggest we cease derailing an entire thread. It is remarkably selfish.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It made an estimated 16.8mil.

 

[Marvel]

I think Godzilla is going to hack TASM2's legs off at the knees and I'm sure DOFP is going to give it a shallow grave

And this mess absolutely deserves it.

http://www.cracked.com/quick-fixes/4-bizarre-choices-that-doomed-the-amazing-spider-man-2/

That is exactly why word of mouth killed this thing in the states. I saw this on people's Facebook page that's how much a lot of fans hate this movie.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Wow Godzilla got some crazy numbers! They are predicting close to $100m for the O/W DOM BO now depending on it's legs it may hurt Spidey much more than previously anticipated