The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[JKKS085]

It made an estimated 16.8mil.

Much better what the 4.5M friday suggested in the first place. Might be due to Godzilla slowing more than expected on saturday and sunday or Sony overestimating the week end once again to avoid an embarassing 55% drop. I'm really curious to see what the estimated numbers for saturday and sunday are.

 

[bapi]

Godzilla's 93M OW is bigger than Spidey's OW... Ouch. This is sad.

 

[bapi]

172M so far and some huge movies will open in next few weeks... So I'm not even sure about 200M.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Much better what the 4.5M friday suggested in the first place. Might be due to Godzilla slowing more than expected on saturday or Sony overestimating the week end once again to avoid an embarassing 55% drop. I'm really curious to see what the estimated numbers for saturday and sunday are.

Eh I wouldn't say much better because most projections had it doing 16mil. It's a worse third weekend drop than Spider-Man 3 had.

And I'm not being too harsh on it either, if it had a good drop (47-49%) I would say so but I don't see one here.

Spider-Man 3 WEEKEND DROPS

2nd weekend drop 61.5%
3rd weekend drop 50.1%

TASM 2 WEEKEND DROPS

2nd weekend drop 61.3%
3rd weekend drop 52.6%

 

[JKKS085]

Eh I wouldn't say much better because most projections had it doing 16mil. It's a worse third weekend drop than Spider-Man 3 had.

I don't think it's a good drop by any measure (no 50%+ drop on a third week end could be qualified as good or strong of course). It's just that with a 4.5 friday there was a clear risk it wouldn't even get to 16M this week end (if it actually made it past 16.5 is even more proof that it's performing like a kid-family film and not the average comicbook movie).
Now Sony overestimated last week end by a large 4.6%. If they pulled the same trick this week end it should land closer to 16M in the end (and closer to a 55% drop) which would be the higher end of my predictions.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Wow, if TASM2 really did about 16.8 million on Godzilla's opening weekend, that is pretty strong. I was expecting 14-15 million last week to be honest.

Memorial day weekend should soften the blow next weekend so it should be over 190 million by the weekend of May 30th. I originally stated 193 by May 30th (which I admit was overly optimisitc) in my projection for about 217. We'll see.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's a worse 3rd weekend drop than Spider-Man 3 so no it isn't pretty strong. The international numbers are the only bright spot for this film.

 

[Spider-Fan]

16.8 isn't really strong. It's better than 14-15, for sure. But, this is only good in an age of lowered expectations.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The fans must be dizzy from all the spinning that they are doing.

 

[TeeKay]

Yeah. They learned we need more Spidey movies!!!! More spin offs!!!!! THAT'LL FIX IT!!!!!


There was a report a few weeks out from Pacific Rim's release that they hadn't spent the vast majority of the marketing budget, and were apparently not going to. That seemed to play out.

TASM2 on the other hand went full on Donald Sterling with the marketing budget.

 

[STARMAN]

No matter what the results are the next few weeks it's fate is already sealed as a domestic box office disappointment. No way to spin it. Just the way it is.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The fans must be dizzy from all the spinning that they are doing.

That expalins all the puke stains

 

[XSpidercideX]

16.8 isn't really strong. It's better than 14-15, for sure. But, this is only good in an age of lowered expectations.

It is strong to support a 210m+ domestic gross over what many people said on this thread about the movie not making it to 200m.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That expalins all the puke stains

No that came from me after I left a showing of The Amazing Spider-Man 2.

 

[Spider-Fan]

It is strong to support a 210m+ domestic gross over what many people said on this thread about the movie not making it to 200m.

But, once again, that 210 figure to shoot for is ONLY good in the much lowered expectations of the movie. When this movie was 2 weeks out, everyone took for granted it would make it over TASM's domestic amount. Took it for granted. You can't look at that, and then see 210 domestic staring you in the face and pretend it is good. It is only good relative to lowered expectations. It's like being expected to have your fingers smashed in with a hammer, but the guy only ends up smashing 8 instead of all 10. Since you expected all 10 to be smashed, should you really be happy it was only 8?

 

[JKKS085]

It is strong to support a 210m+ domestic gross over what many people said on this thread about the movie not making it to 200m.

To be fair there isn't a lot of people predicting a sub 200M finish (haven't seen one to be honest). And if you're referencing my posts then it's more wild speculations on my part or projections just for the sake of it than actual predictions.

 

[XSpidercideX]

But, once again, that 210 figure to shoot for is ONLY good in the much lowered expectations of the movie. When this movie was 2 weeks out, everyone took for granted it would make it over TASM's domestic amount. Took it for granted. You can't look at that, and then see 210 domestic staring you in the face and pretend it is good. It is only good relative to lowered expectations. It's like being expected to have your fingers smashed in with a hammer, but the guy only ends up smashing 8 instead of all 10. Since you expected all 10 to be smashed, should you really be happy it was only 8?

Yeah no kidding. My expectations hit rock bottom since Neighbors weekend. I was serioulsy questioning if it could surpass Thor at that point and was expecting Godzilla to kill the film but it looks like it held up a little better than I thought.

 

[Iceman]

This film should have opened up all the possibilities for TASM3 and onwards but it's putting all that into doubt. Even if TASM3 happens to be a great film I think the domestic box office for that film is doomed as as lows this is, many more won't see 3 just because of 2.

 

[ironman_rick]

Any news on the international numbers ? I hate looking at spidey's domestic numbers. At this juncture, I will be happy if it hits $200m domestic.

 

[Arach Knight]

16.8 isn't really strong. It's better than 14-15, for sure. But, this is only good in an age of lowered expectations.

Is that the weekend total including Friday, just Saturday or the overall weekend take thus far? Also, any word on the foreign numbers? If there is any hope of this film pushing to $700 million, I expect it to come from the foreign box office.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's at 461mil and should pass the first film soon.

 

[XSpidercideX]

This film should have opened up all the possibilities for TASM3 and onwards but it's putting all that into doubt. Even if TASM3 happens to be a great film I think the domestic box office for that film is doomed as as lows this is, many more won't see 3 just because of 2.

Yeah, I think it is still smart for them to continue the franchise as they can make a lot of cash, just not as much as suspected. The one thing they must do differently is lower the production budget and quit with the marketing crap.

Next film's budget should not exceed 210m.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Is that the weekend total including Friday, just Saturday or the overall weekend take thus far? Also, any word on the foreign numbers? If there is any hope of this film pushing to $700 million, I expect it to come from the foreign box office.

That is the full weekend. I originally thought 15 million given Friday's number, not sure if 16.8 is the true total it though, I suspect it will be a bit lower.

The foreign box office is blowing away the original. Yeah, the film will easily surpass 700 million, it may even be close to the first film's WW total in the end. I'm guessing about 740 million. But it could be higher, not sure.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah, I think it is still smart for them to continue the franchise as they can make a lot, just not as much as suspected. The one thing they must do differently is lower the production budget and quit with the marketing crap.

Next film's budget should not exceed 210m.

The first cost 230mil and the sequel cost 255mil, how could they possibly get the budget down to 210mil? How are they going to possibly lower it even to the first film's levels?

The budgets are trending up so don't be surprised when the 3rd film has a 275-300mil price tag.

 

[JKKS085]

The breakdown for the week end is Fri 4.5M/ Sat 7.3M/ Sun 4.9M.
It's the sizable saturday bump that I find suspicious (and to an extent I doubt the projected sunday hold as well). I think actuals are going to be lower than 16.8M for sure.
And think Godzilla's actuals will end up above estimates.