The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Spider-Fan]

Yeah, I think it is still smart for them to continue the franchise as they can make a lot of cash, just not as much as suspected. The one thing they must do differently is lower the production budget and quit with the marketing crap.

Next film's budget should not exceed 210m.

Next film likely has 6 villains. How do yo keep the budget at 210 mil? Budget is only going up at this point as we get more villains and Garfield's paycheck goes up.

 

[Erzengel]

Meanwhile TWS just passed $250.

 

[Arach Knight]

That is the full weekend. I originally thought 15 million given Friday's number, not sure if 16.8 is the true total it though, I suspect it will be a bit lower.

The foreign box office is blowing away the original. Yeah, the film will easily surpass 700 million, it may even be close to the first film's WW total in the end. I'm guessing about 740 million. But it could be higher, not sure.

Wasn't your original prediction calling for this film to hit $640 million by Monday from the domestic take? Or did I misunderstand you? Had you meant that this film would make the $80 million required to hit that mark by way of the overseas and domestic gross combined?

 

[Erzengel]

I don't understand blowing away the original in the foreign box office?

The original made $490 and the new was is at $461. How much more is anticipated?

 

[JKKS085]

I don't understand blowing away the original in the foreign box office?

The original made $490 and the new was is at $461. How much more is anticipated?

500M at minimum.
And given the global increase of overseas markets, the emergence of new ones, this is hardly a surprise. The surprise would have been TASM2 not making more than SM on a much bigger market.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I don't understand blowing away the original in the foreign box office?

The original made $490 and the new was is at $461. How much more is anticipated?

It made 57 million in the last week. Even with 50% drops every week, the total will be much better than 490:

461
489
503
510
514.5
.
.
.

 

[Erzengel]

It made 57 million in the last week. Even with 50% drops every week, the total will be much better than 490:

461
489
503
510
514.5
.
.
.

Then you might want to find a different wording then "blowing away" because I really don't see $25 million as blowing away anything.

It just seems like fanboys and bragging rights. It is that much of a difference if TASM makes $699 million versus $700 million?

 

[XSpidercideX]

Wasn't your original prediction calling for this film to hit $640 million by Monday from the domestic take? Or did I misunderstand you? Had you meant that this film would make the $80 million required to hit that mark by way of the overseas and domestic gross combined?

Yeah, looks like I overestimated by about 8 million ofe th 80 it called for to reach 640. I'm not sure if that overseas total includes today or not though, so it could be higher if it doesn't.

 

[bapi]

It made 57 million in the last week. Even with 50% drops every week, the total will be much better than 490:

461
489
503
510
514.5
.
.
.

This week's drop is 55%. Next week you've got X-Men so drop should be even bigger.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

500M at minimum.
And given the global increase of overseas markets, the emergence of new ones, this is hardly a surprise. The surprise would have been TASM2 not making more than SM on a much bigger market.

Eh, it's great number but your assessment is correct.. It's why I predicted 550mil for it's overseas gross. The overseas numbers aren't the least bit surprising to me. And unless X-Men tanks it's going to hurt the film overseas just like Godzilla obviously did this past weekend.

 

[Iceman]

This week's drop is 55%. Next week you've got X-Men so drop should be even bigger.

Yep, won't have that many screens left when it'll be sharing with 2 big more recently released films.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, I think it is still smart for them to continue the franchise as they can make a lot of cash, just not as much as suspected. The one thing they must do differently is lower the production budget and quit with the marketing crap.

Next film's budget should not exceed 210m.

The scenario is a hell of a lot more difficult in the wake of these figures than it was a few months ago. It almost seems like the US (& I'd assume most other countries where English is the 1st language) audience is done with Spidey now for a while. The people I went with are regular action film fans. I don't think I'll be able to convince them to see the next one even though they've seen all the ones prior. One even said it was the worst superhero film he's seen (I don't think it's that bad). Budget control is needed but they can only go so low with a character that requires CG in every scene he appears in as do most of his villains. We've yet to see much evidence of fatigue in any franchise internationally but if it ever does happen it'll be game over here. And after the next 4 films come out that'll be 9 films since 2002...surely that will test them. t:

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

The fans must be dizzy from all the spinning that they are doing.

It really is funny, it's like some people just can't except Spidey is a shell of his former self at the BO. I've said numerous times I loved TASM and I'm the type of guy that will see a CBM multiple times. I only saw TASM2 once and told everyone I know to avoid it like the plague

Yep, won't have that many screens left when it'll be sharing with 2 big more recently released films.

Exactly. There are some folks on this board that thing Spidey will just keep on trucking in the foreign market and have yet to realize big G and DOFP are really going to be giving it a one two blow that it likely wont be able to handle. I honestly hate FOX and wish Spidey would have outdone the new film since I wont even bother with anything FOX-men after X3 and Origins.

 

[Iceman]

Exactly. There are some folks on this board that thing Spidey will just keep on trucking in the foreign market and have yet to realize big G and DOFP are really going to be giving it a one two blow that it likely wont be able to handle. I honestly hate FOX and wish Spidey would have outdone the new film since I wont even bother with anything FOX-men after X3 and Origins.

Spidey of old might have garnered many rewatches even in the midst of that competition but it's going to be a minority who do so for this film with these alternatives out.

Btw don't know if you've been following DOFP but the reactions to that have been very positive. Quite a few regulars on the forum who hated X3 and Origins say they loved the new film (at an advance screening) and this was borne out in nearly all the other internet reactions. And there's only 20 or reviews on RT so far but they've been mostly positive. No probs if X-Men isn't for you but just letting you know in case you weren't aware.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Spidey of old might have garnered many rewatches even in the midst of that competition but it's going to be a minority who do so for this film with these alternatives out.

Btw don't know if you've been following DOFP but the reactions to that have been very positive. Quite a few regulars on the forum who hated X3 and Origins say they loved the new film (at an advance screening) and this was borne out in nearly all the other internet reactions. And there's only 20 or reviews on RT so far but they've been mostly positive. No probs if X-Men isn't for you but just letting you know in case you weren't aware.

I actually love X-men, spent my youth at the comics store every Wed grabbing the new ones and still have a lot of them in safe keeping. My problem is the back to back crapfest from X3 and Origins both of which I saw in the theaters. After that I have nothing but pure hatred for FOX and how the adapt Marvel properties. I vowed never to pay for another FOX film. I saw FC on HBO and that is was def a step in the right direction but I don't I will ever pay for anything from the FOX Marvel properties again

 

[Iceman]

I actually love X-men, spent my youth at the comics store every Wed grabbing the new ones and still have a lot of them in safe keeping. My problem is the back to back crapfest from X3 and Origins both of which I saw in the theaters. After that I have nothing but pure hatred for FOX and how the adapt Marvel properties. I vowed never to pay for another FOX film. I saw FC on HBO and that is was def a step in the right direction but I don't I will ever pay for anything from the FOX Marvel properties again

Oh, well as a fellow X-Men comics fan (I have the entire run of Uncanny with all originals from about 70 onwards) nearly all of us felt like you did. I didn't even start following DOFP at all until late into the production and it started looking really good. I'd definitely recommend to you to check out trailers and reviews if you haven't already. But of course it's your decision and many fans were completely turned off on Fox X-films after those 2.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

That is the full weekend. I originally thought 15 million given Friday's number, not sure if 16.8 is the true total it though, I suspect it will be a bit lower.

The foreign box office is blowing away the original. Yeah, the film will easily surpass 700 million, it may even be close to the first film's WW total in the end. I'm guessing about 740 million. But it could be higher, not sure.

Yeah $700m was never in question. China alone made it a sure thing.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Oh, well as a fellow X-Men comics fan (I have the entire run of Uncanny with all originals from about 70 onwards) nearly all of us felt like you did. I didn't even start following DOFP at all until late into the production and it started looking really good. I'd definitely recommend to you to check out trailers and reviews if you haven't already. But of course it's your decision and many fans were completely turned off on Fox X-films after those 2.

I'm just to proud to back down from my vow. It will take several consecutive good movie from them before I even think about letting them back into my life. I've just been hurt too many times!

 

[TalismanRing]

It made 57 million in the last week. Even with 50% drops every week, the total will be much better than 490:

It will be better than $490m but higher drops than that with big new films opening every week and losing screens since it's been out for awhile. China accounted for $22m of that $57m last week and when it leaves China it leaves all at once.

If it does another $10m in China that would be a $40m increase that offsets most of the US loss. While there's been some growth in other countries as of last week it was off about $10m when 12 of it's other top territories are combined. My guess is around $520m O/S

 

[Tobias]

It will be better than $490m but higher drops than that with big new films opening every week and losing screens since it's been out for awhile. China accounted for $22m of that $57m last week and when it leaves China it leaves all at once.

If it does another $10m in China that would be a $40m increase that offsets most of the US loss. While there's been some growth in other countries as of last week it was off about $10m when 12 of it's other top territories are combined. My guess is around $520m O/S

Yes. The only question is, though it will exceed 700 million WW, will it beat TASM's WW total. I thought it would but now I am not so sure.

 

[Iceman]

I'm just to proud to back down from my vow. It will take several consecutive good movie from them before I even think about letting them back into my life. I've just been hurt too many times!

OK mate t:

Hopefully we get those consecutive good movies that you need.

 

[JKKS085]

My guess is around $520m O/S

So 520 OS + 210 DOM. That's 730M WW, should be enough to pass CATWS and get to 1st place WW (at least until HTTYD2 and TF4 hit) and 32 millions shy of the first film's final haul.

There's no way Sony could be happy with these numbers while they spent 25 millions more in TASM2's production budget only. And that's not even accounting for the fact that TASM2 is going to be a lot less profitable for the studio with a lower domestic income than TASM .

I hope that CATWS can get another 20M WW (15 DOM & 5 OS), maybe that would give it a fighting chance if TASM2 falls short of these projections.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

They aught to be glad Godzilla didn't come out in China this past weekend.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I would love for Cap to get another 15m DOM but even with how good his legs have been I don't know if it will get there. Could get a decent boost on memorial day W/E though just for the USA nostalgia.

I don't know if I'm sad that Spidey did so bad or happy that Sony is crashing and burning. Really have mixed feeling since I like Garfield and Stone as well as Ms. Fields yet anything that starts pushing this franchise back towards MCU proper I'm more excited by than Spidey being stuck in his own little universe

 

[Iceman]

They aught to be glad Godzilla didn't come out in China this past weekend.

Do you know when it comes out there?