The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Do you know when it comes out there?

June 13th.

 

[Mysteryman]

What is the best and worst case scenario for the film during Memorial Day Weekend ?

 

[JKKS085]

Do you know when it comes out there?

On June 13 I think.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What is the best and worst case scenario for the film during Memorial Day Weekend ?

If we go by Spider-Man 3, whose drops it has been following, it should have a 50% drop for the 3 day and a 38% for the 4 day. Something around those numbers are what I'm expecting. It could do a little better I suppose.

 

[Iceman]

I would love for Cap to get another 15m DOM but even with how good his legs have been I don't know if it will get there. Could get a decent boost on memorial day W/E though just for the USA nostalgia.

I don't know if I'm sad that Spidey did so bad or happy that Sony is crashing and burning. Really have mixed feeling since I like Garfield and Stone as well as Ms. Fields yet anything that starts pushing this franchise back towards MCU proper I'm more excited by than Spidey being stuck in his own little universe

Spidey will live forever whatever happens. The box office is just giving back what Sony have sowed so I'm not sad about it even though I love this character. The one thing I am a bit pissed about is that it will damage the impression that CBMs were starting to get better to the GA. They need to be able to trust in CBMs in general so they turn up regularly without having to make too much of a decision. I did really like the Garfield & Stone combo relative to Maguire and Dunst. Wish we could swap them out lol but keep the original Harry Osborn.

I'd love for him to go to Marvel one day so while it's with someone else I can't really lose. Any bad move pushes it closer to that direction. Any good move is.. a good move.

June 13th.

Thanks. That is one saving grace. Godzilla in China is one of the worst possible things to be following you.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

ASM2 is completely gone from the IMAX theaters in my state. Will it be showing in IMAX at all next weekend; will that even matter at this point?

 

[Liam_H]

If its completely gone, then its gone. Only way it would come back is if Godzilla was bombing which it isn't.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

If its completely gone, then its gone. Only way it would come back is if Godzilla was bombing which it isn't.

I meant nationwide.

 

[Liam_H]

The same response still applies. I mean there might be a select few that is giving ASM2 some showtimes but its mostly all Godzilla.

 

[chaseter]

Wow, if TASM2 really did about 16.8 million on Godzilla's opening weekend, that is pretty strong. I was expecting 14-15 million last week to be honest.

No it's not strong...it's about average. The estimations are always high anyways. 50+% drops from a pathetic OW are still pathetic numbers.

 

[chaseter]

The first cost 230mil and the sequel cost 255mil, how could they possibly get the budget down to 210mil? How are they going to possibly lower it even to the first film's levels?

The budgets are trending up so don't be surprised when the 3rd film has a 275-300mil price tag.

Have Spidey doing karate for half the film.

 

[XSpidercideX]

It really is funny, it's like some people just can't except Spidey is a shell of his former self at the BO. I've said numerous times I loved TASM and I'm the type of guy that will see a CBM multiple times. I only saw TASM2 once and told everyone I know to avoid it like the plague

It's funny how different opinions are on this film. I've seen it 5 times at the theater and it is still my favorite Spider-man movie. Everyone I've taken with me loved it. My wife has even saw it 3 times and she said she may want to go see it again. 3 out of 5 times there was applause at the end of the film.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Have Spidey doing karate for half the film.

Don't give them any ideas. lol

 

[Joeyjojo72]

It's funny how different opinions are on this film. I've seen it 5 times at the theater and it is still my favorite Spider-man movie. Everyone I've taken with me loved it. My wife has even saw it 3 times and she said she may want to go see it again. 3 out of 5 times there was applause at the end of the film.

There is absolutely nothing surprising about the fact that you and your family and friends have similar opinions and tastes. Just don't try to extrapolate this fact to the public at large.

 

[Spider-Fan]

There is absolutely nothing surprising about the fact that you and your family and friends have similar opinions and tastes. Just don't try to extrapolate this fact to the public at large.

Exactly! I always hate when people use their family and such as empiracle data for the general public. It doesn't work that way. If that were true, then SM3 must be the best Spider-Man film ever, because several of my friends and family said that when they saw it. Clearly, that is not the case for the general public. Same here. Poster X's family loved this, but Spider-Fan's friends and family were less enthusiastic. Neither Poster X nor Spider-Fan's family/friend experience speaks for the public. However, numbers don't lie.

 

[XSpidercideX]

There is absolutely nothing surprising about the fact that you and your family and friends have similar opinions and tastes. Just don't try to extrapolate this fact to the public at large.

I don't have to extrapolate. IMDB and RT has already done that for us with the public at large and the majority of people liked the film enough to give it a favorable rating.

That is why the IMDB score sits at 7.5 and the RT scorte is at 73%. So far over 7/10 people liked the movie. This is the best data we have so far on the general public. Just because you didn't like doesn't mean that most people didn't. We have the data to support it. Over 70% is a majority. If most people didn't like it, it would be below 50% GA score. The critics were overly harsh on the film compared the general public so far.

Whereas with SM3, the critics overrated it.... the RT score at 51% is lower than the critic rating, meaning it wasn't as good as they chalked it up to be.

 

[Spiderine]

Well, my friends must have similar tastes as me because they walked out with the same disappointed expression I had.

 

[BestGirl]

XSpidercideX, a correction: the average person who votes on IMDB and RT have liked it, but we don't know about the population at large. It's not like everyone who has seen the movie has voted there.

There's no way to really know what the public's opinion is regarding the film without conducting a survey, but TASM2's massive drops indicate it's probably not gone over well.

 

[XSpidercideX]

^Correction: the average person who votes on IMDB and RT have liked it, but we don't know about the population at large. It's not like everyone who has seen the movie has voted there.

There's no way to really know what the public's opinion is regarding the film without conducting a survey, but TASM2's massive drops indicate it's probably not gone over well.

It just means there is not much hype behind it. Thor and CA are riding the Avengers Hype. Where Spider-man has come out so many times most people are waiting for DVD because it's not anything new or exciting for another Spider-man film to be coming out.

It doesn't mean the movie isn't any good. There have been many great movies that didn't make as much as the box office because there wasn't much hype behind them for people to leave their homes to go see it. Once it comes out on DVD I'm sure many people will see it and be pleasantly surprised. I would expect this film to get a lot more people excitied about the future of Spider-man than the last one because it leaves off with more of a cliffhanger and expanded world feeling.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I don't have to extrapolate. IMDB and RT has already done that for us with the public at large and the majority of people liked the film enough to give it a favorable rating.

That is why the IMDB score sits at 7.5 and the RT scorte is at 73%. So far over 7/10 people liked the movie. This is the best data we have so far on the general public. Just because you didn't like doesn't mean that most people didn't. We have the data to support it. Over 70% is a majority. If most people didn't like it, it would be below 50% GA score. The critics were overly harsh on the film compared the general public so far.

Whereas with SM3, the critics overrated it.... the RT score at 51% is lower than the critic rating, meaning it wasn't as good as they chalked it up to be.

RT and IMDB are very flawed metrics. User X can vote an unlimited number of times and manipulate the data. Perfect example of a non-true result: RT's User Score for Spider-Man. It once had a high audience rating. Look at that score today. 67%. At one time, it was in the 50s on the user rating. Guess when that was? 2012. What is odd about 2012? Same year TASM came out. See my point? Fanboys collectivelly voted those scores down in order to make the movies look bad when the reboot was coming. Thus, I never use IMDB or the audience rating on RT as a legitimate score. The top 250 on IMDB has a ton of films from the last 7 years. Many of which won't be remembered in 10 years time. TASM2's IMDB score will fall overtime as well.

 

[XSpidercideX]

XSpidercideX, a correction: the average person who votes on IMDB and RT have liked it, but we don't know about the population at large. It's not like everyone who has seen the movie has voted there.

There's no way to really know what the public's opinion is regarding the film without conducting a survey, but TASM2's massive drops indicate it's probably not gone over well.

It's still the best data we have on the film. Its not bad by any means. For example, Godzilla is almost already as low as TASM2 and it has half the ratings. It's possible that TASM2 could be higher rated and have better reception than Godzilla by the General Audience, and it is just overrated by critics.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The film had a chance to excite the audience and it didn't. I'm not saying don't love the film but you have to look at the reality of the situation. You don't see me saying that everyone loved Man of Steel just because I did because that would be an untrue statement.

The Amazing Spider-Man fans said the same thing about the first film, they said it would build an audience and the next film would benefit and that hasn't happened in the states at least. The audience isn't growing it's decreasing because people don't like these films as much as Sony wants them to.

 

[XSpidercideX]

RT and IMDB are very flawed metrics. User X can vote an unlimited number of times and manipulate the data. Perfect example of a non-true result: RT's User Score for Spider-Man. It once had a high audience rating. Look at that score today. 67%. At one time, it was in the 50s on the user rating. Guess when that was? 2012. What is odd about 2012? Same year TASM came out. See my point? Fanboys collectivelly voted those scores down in order to make the movies look bad when the reboot was coming. Thus, I never use IMDB or the audience rating on RT as a legitimate score. The top 250 on IMDB has a ton of films from the last 7 years. Many of which won't be remembered in 10 years time. TASM2's IMDB score will fall overtime as well.

There is no other metric we have. So what else are you going to go by? Box office is even more flawed because the amount a movie makes has nothing to do with how good it is. It's all about hype. That's why movies like Matrix Reloaded outgross the original, when the original is widely regarded as better. It had way more hype.

Generally if a movie is really good, you will see the increase in the sequel. So we will see how well regarded TASM2 by the box office numbers of TASM3.

 

[Spider-Fan]

There is no other metric we have. So what else are you going to go by? Box office is even more flawed because the amount a movie makes has nothing to do with how good it is. It's all about hype. That's why movies like Matrix Reloaded outgross the original, when the original is widely regarded as better. It had way more hype.

That's why it is nomrally better to look at the drop % for a movie as opposed to its opening gross. Movies people like tend to stay in the theater longer and have low drop %'s. See Captain America 2. It has had quite low drops, which is why it passed 250 mil on an opening of around 95. Now, let's say Movie X debuts at 130 mil. It ends at around 250 mil. Same as Cap 2. What can we read into Movie X? The drops for the movie had to be high for it to top out around 250 mil off such a big opening. So, most people probably didn't like Movie X. However, Cap 2, same money and took longer to make it, is more encouraging due to that low drop rate.

It is not so much what a movie makes that tells a story. It is how did it get there?

 

[JKKS085]

Once it comes out on DVD I'm sure many people will see it and be pleasantly surprised. I would expect this film to get a lot more people excitied about the future of Spider-man than the last one because it leaves off with more of a cliffhanger and expanded world feeling.

Oh yeah it's a guessing game now ? Cool, then I guess that once the DVD comes out it'll cure all diseases and end all the wars in the world. After that every man who ever saw the movie will grow cotton candy beards and that will stop starvation everywhere. And everyone will be leaving in candy houses too.

It's so much fun ! Much more fun than just analyzing numbers, putting things into perspective using logic to support a reasonning. I mean of course the movie was slammed by critics, then got a dissapointing ow, tanked two week ends in a row, collapsed on week days but that's because everyone liked it deep inside even if they don't realize it yet and it got great wom and 4 months from now you will all see how things turn out. Because it's easier to speculate on future stuff when the present is not exactly consistent with your views.