The Amazing Spider-Man The Amazing Spider-Man: Box Office Thread

[Billy the Poet]

It may be too early to start, but I think, since we will soon get a better look at how the film will look and the marketing campaign is starting to become more agressive, I decided to start the discussion of how well The Amazing Spider-man will perform in box office, considering its strong competition and challenges in attracting the audience after the disappointing Spider-man 3 and five years off-screen.

So, here, in this thread, we will talk about how much in your opinion TAS will be able to make (OW, domestically, overseas, WW), how good legs will it have and how well will it suppress other competitors (such as The Dark Knight Rises, Ice Age 4, Brave, and Ted).

In addition, I decided to start a poll of how much you predict TAS to make in the domestic market overall.

 

[Billy the Poet]

I'll be first to predict that, with strong promotion and gradual understand of general audience that this is a re-boot with a completely new direction as well as the fact that it's 3D and the major competitor is released only two weeks later, the Amazing Spider-man will be able to make over $300m and, to be approximate, reach $320-340m, similar to the numbers of Spider-man 3.

I also think that, with its release date on Tuesday, the film will hopefully pull $45-55m on the Independence Day and $80-100m as of the opening weekend respectively. I also believe it will be able to gross over $800m worldwide.

Yet, it all depends on:
1) Quality of the final product
2) Promotion
3) General Audience's response
4) Good WOM & Critics' reviews
5) Competitiors' performances
and lastly
6) Overall economic situation

 

[Doctor Jones]

Anywhere from $70 - $90 million opening weekend. This has an uphill battle.

 

[chaseter]

225-250 domestic if it is a really good movie. It won't pass 250.

 

[Chewy]

I also think that, with its release date on Tuesday, the film will hopefully pull $45-55m on the opening day

I don't see how that's possible. There's no "rush" factor for this film.

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

Anywhere from $70 - $90 million opening weekend. This has an uphill battle.

Agreed.

 

[Chewy]

Anywhere from $70 - $90 million opening weekend. This has an uphill battle.

It opens on a Tuesday so that would be a massive OW for it. Spider-Man 2 sized.

I think it'll end up with around a 50M weekend if it's lucky. Maybe 100M through those first 6 days.

 

[Billy the Poet]

I don't see how that's possible. There's no "rush" factor for this film.

Oops! I meant Wednesday, which is July 4th.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Spider-man is bigger than Iron Man with or wihout Sam Raimi.

With 3D there's no way this falls below 275 m.

160 = opening week

305 = domestic total

550 = overseas total

855 = worldwide total

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

oops I voted for over 700 m. I thought the poll was for worldwide totals.

 

[Anno_Domini]

From best to worst, what were the BO for Raimi's films?

 

[chaseter]

www.boxofficemojo.com

Sorry...too lazy to do it. Spider-Man 1 made over $400 million domestic though. That is huge.

 

[DW4]

This is Spider-Man, guaranteed he'll make over 300 million domestically with over 700 WW.

 

[Mary Jane Watson]

Spider-man is bigger than Iron Man with or wihout Sam Raimi.

With 3D there's no way this falls below 275 m.

160 = opening week

305 = domestic total

550 = overseas total

855 = worldwide total

This.

Also I have started to notice that the BO number is getting bigger and break box office record is pretty common right now.

 

[Mary Jane Watson]

Btw, this is Spider Man.

 

[Billy the Poet]

I guess 300m is almost a safe bet, if you ask me. However, despite the initial positive reaction, many complain the film using origin all over again, even though, imo, it does make sense. I myself wasn't sure about it, but now, after getting to know more, I have to admit it's not here without purpose. So, for TAS grossing over $300m: fan base, agressive promotion, credible cast & crew, 3D, release date (which separates the film from major competitors for two weeks). Against: the fact it's re-launch, doubtful prominence as of these days, possibly declining interest of GA, and, most importantly, competition (especially TDKR). As a result, either TAS is a new Indiana Jones 4, hopefully, or another SR... Time will tell. One question remains - the budget. It's a critical factor, as, thus, it's more probable to understand what Sony is expecting from its performance. I hope it doesn't exceed $200m.

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

www.boxofficemojo.com

Sorry...too lazy to do it. Spider-Man 1 made over $400 million domestic though. That is huge.

Indeed.

 

[chaseter]

This is Spider-Man, guaranteed he'll make over 300 million domestically with over 700 WW.

Spider-Man 3 made $336 domestic and that was a highly, highly anticipated sequel.

This is a complete reboot and the biggest movie of 2012 will be coming out merely two weeks later to squash this like a bug. It won't make over $300 million domestic and you can quote me on that

 

[hatebox]

255 domestic and 350 overseas (they still like 3D) would be my guess. Forget Raimi numbers, but the brand should still have an impact.

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

Tbh, Chaseter, I think you may be right. TDKR may nto be my first or second most anticipated comic book film of next year, but there's no doubt it'll make money.

 

[Billy the Poet]

Spider-Man 3 made $336 domestic and that was a highly, highly anticipated sequel.

This is a complete reboot and the biggest movie of 2012 will be coming out merely two weeks later to squash this like a bug. It won't make over $300 million domestic and you can quote me on that

Check the opening weekend of Spider-man 3 and then look at the further history. It didn't have good legs and wasn't able to gather good enough WOM to sustain against Pirates 3 and Shrek 3. TAS has only one main competitor and it's still a matter of time what feedback will it receive from the audience. I do believe it will do a good job at appealing to modern youth with Garfield's charisma and story's focus on the hero of today.

 

[©KAW]

255 domestic and 350 overseas (they still like 3D) would be my guess. Forget Raimi numbers, but the brand should still have an impact.

These numbers seem about right. Although I'd go a little less domestically (240M) and a bit higher overseas (370M). If the film can do half a billion worldwide, the sequel (minus the origin) has a chance to do much bigger numbers.

 

[chaseter]

Check the opening weekend of Spider-man 3 and then look at the further history. It didn't have good legs and wasn't able to gather good enough WOM to sustain against Pirates 3 and Shrek 3. TAS has only one main competitor and it's still a matter of time what feedback will it receive from the audience. I do believe it will do a good job at appealing to modern youth with Garfield's charisma and story's focus on the hero of today.

You think this is going to get well over $200 million in two weeks so that when TDKR comes out in can easily coast past $300 million? Yeah right.

TAS has two main competitor's, Ice Age whatever number and TDKR. If you think this movie is going to get numbers matching any of the previous films then you are being naive. This is a complete reboot within 4 years of the last movie. This movie will play out like Batman Begins but with a little bit better numbers. I stick with $225-$250. Whoever thinks this will get past $400 million is absolutely crazy and anybody who thinks this will get $300-$350 million or more is naive.

 

[Billy the Poet]

You think this is going to get well over $200 million in two weeks so that when TDKR comes out in can easily coast past $300 million? Yeah right.

TAS has two main competitor's, Ice Age whatever number and TDKR. If you think this movie is going to get numbers matching any of the previous films then you are being naive. This is a complete reboot within 4 years of the last movie. This movie will play out like Batman Begins but with a little bit better numbers. I stick with $225-$250. Whoever thinks this will get past $400 million is absolutely crazy and anybody who thinks this will get $300-$350 million or more is naive.

Wow, so your point is simply to call anyone, who thinks the opposote, naive? Lol!

TF sequels managed both to make over $200m in 2 weeks and reach $300m in 3. There's nothing really impossible in at least grossing way over $200m by the time TDKR is released, especially considering the fact that WB aren't doing the 3D format again (which was the actual reason why TDK succeeded to gross so much). Check Ice Age's previous films, their domestic numbers are low and the reason another is made is for the sake of the performance overseas, where these films usually make the most of its fortune. If Pirates 4 with all its negative buzz manage to cross $200m, TAS, if response is positive, will make such amount before the second weekend.

Your forecast does seem quite biased. I do understand that you aren't diffing the new direction, but it doesn't mean same is with any other viewer. Spider-man is Spider-man. It may not make TDK's numbers, but I deeply doubt it won't reach $300m, as you're claiming, just because it's a re-launch, which has become a common thing these days.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Not to mention, the previous films are very much loved. It didn't go out on a sour note like B&R. Audiences are going to be baffled. When they see the trailer and hear "Parker" this will be the first time most of the GA finds out this is an entirely new cast. Then they see the spider bite again. When most of the GA was around to see the first film nine years ago. The trailer doesn't really do a good job of comforting the audience into this. Maybe this has to happen. And that's up to audiences to judge, but they still won't be overly excited.

This will take people off guard. And how this plays out, it could be a baffling to negative reaction. Are they ready to embrace this new vision so suddenly and so soon?