The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[BigThor]

A lot of that was arrogance and stupid contracts. I hope Marvel Studios has learned the lesson of the films that came before.

Not sure how much the boost will be overall, but I fear that TA could somehow hurt the solo films, Iron-Man excluded. Initiate viewings should be up, but the multiple viewing might now be. After all, you can just go home and watch all the heroes together.

Marvel stating that THOR II will be the biggest Marvel film ever 2nd ONLY to The Avengers is pretty much the reason I expect a larger budget.

Yeah...so there's that t:

 

[04nbod]

Guys, I've seen it in the UK in a big city multiplex. There were two screens 100% full, day 1. And queues for the later showings. I'm not a fan, I'm a movie buff, and I know the UK market very well. I've also looked at what's happening overseas - and it's insane. You might not have the movie in the US yet, but I can guarantee you this movie is like a rolling cataclysm.

Don't even bother telling me it wont make a billion. GTFO. You're a terrible, terrible gambler if that's your bet.

Its doing very, very well. I was tracking the screenings in the previous few weeks so I could go after work. They were adding 2D screenings up until a few days before. (all but 2 of the 3D screens were taken by the Avengers) The one I went to was pretty full. There were single seats around but you would be lucky to get a group in there.

Odeon in Liverpool one have 17 screenings today. The local arthouse cinema have 4.

 

[cherokeesam]

I'm definitely expecting big things from Thor II --- the Avengers boost, plus Hemsworth's star definitely on the rise mean big things for the sequel.

I'm still very concerned with Cap 2, though....CATFA definitely underperformed (for whatever excuses you choose to believe in), and Cap 2 is still 2 years away. I'm hoping movies like The Iceman will help Evans' star power, and that his turn in Avengers will make a lot of doubters go back and re-assess CATFA....otherwise, Cap 2 might be in trouble.

TBH, at this point, I'd say that a Hulk sequel would be a safer bet than Cap 2. But that's not the bet that Marvel wants to make.

 

[BigThor]

I'm definitely expecting big things from Thor II --- the Avengers boost, plus Hemsworth's star definitely on the rise mean big things for the sequel.

QFT

Hardly anybody knew who Thor/Chris H. was in 2011, so imagine how much it will make now that they're much more well known.

 

[Mjölnir]

QFT

Hardly anybody knew who Thor/Chris H. was in 2011, so imagine how much it will make now that they're much more well known.

Yes, that Thor was so successful, despite not being too well known and having quite a strange concept, speaks volumes. Even more so since Chris was basically a complete unknown for most people. Given that background I'd say Thor can rival Iron Man as the greatest Marvel character success story.

 

[BigThor]

Yes, that Thor was so successful, despite not being too well known and having quite a strange concept, speaks volumes. Even more so since Chris was basically a complete unknown for most people. Given that background I'd say Thor can rival Iron Man as the greatest Marvel character success story.

Yep THOR get's downplayed since it didn't bring in IM bucks and used 3D, but honestly we all know Thor is a MUCH harder concept to sell.

 

[Vulklin]

I just seen a 10.40 AM showing

It was not packed at all. Maybe 50 people max. Seemed less than half full.

So I wonder if that is a trend and meaning Avengers will be big, but not massive big big

 

[ElMariachi]

1040 is pretty early on a Saturday morning for a sell out.

 

[ElMariachi]

Captain America's box office was lower due to competition. Harry Potter, Apes, Horrible Bosses, TF3, Smurfs, The Help,Crazy Stupid Love, cowboys & aliens, etc. Harry Potter probally hurt its box office by sucking up all the 3D screens.

 

[Vulklin]

1040 is pretty early on a Saturday morning for a sell out.

I know, I was expecting half full.

But if it was packed I would be thinking OMG this film is gonna go through the roof into another dimension

 

[Nokio]

Yeah I've noticed that too and when this film crosses the 1 billion mark watch the haters cry it's because "3D" and "inflation" etc.

Haters/detractors are so freakin predictable it's pathetic.



A 170 million opening would literally make me go and Thor II-III, Cap 2, IM 3 might have budgets of over 200 million.

Well I wouldn't call someone a hater if they are being realistic about box office numbers. The fact is that with the exception of Batman, Spiderman and Iron Man, these comic films tend not to have legs. Yeah they have a big opening weekend and drop 50% or more the following week cause all the fans have rushed to see them. The ones that have done decent enough have always ended up with a total domestic take between 155-180 million and I'm talking Xmen, F4, Wolverine, Thor and Cap. Now X2 and 3 managed to cross the 200 mil mark. None of those are bad numbers and all were profitable, even both F4 made enough profit wise for Fox to reboot franchise.

I'm not sure a 200 million Cap movie is really needed. That's insane and I say that based on the character and what he's capable of and the villains he'd be taking on. Even if the Cap movie had grossed over 300 mil domestically I as Marvel wouldn't sink a massive budget into a sequel cause it's not needed. You don't have to throw more money at certain films because the first was profitable. Yeah I know their's AIM and Hydra and they are tech based villains and such but still 200 million is too high and not needed. I'm not saying a studio wouldn't do it cause they'd want a summer tentpole with the all the fx and big action but just because you can doesn't mean it's needed. I've always been in the minority probably that Hollywood wastes or over ballon budget on a lot of their films. A 200 million Lone Ranger movie comes to mind that was rumored a few months back. WTF? 200 million for the Lone Ranger starring Depp? I still don't see the justification for that.

Now if Thor had done huge numbers and based on the character and the fantasy element of his back ground I'd give his film a higher budget. I can see a Thor flick costing 200 mil. Is it needed? Probably not but spending that kind of money for Thor is more justifiable then a Cap movie. Some may disagree but i stand by opinion. Pouring 200 plus mil into a Captain America film is not fiscally smart even if the film is gonna do huge numbers. You can do it 100 plus million and make more profit. I personally didn't see where they spent 150 million at for the 1st Cap movie. Not sure what the exact budget was but I believe it was between 140-150 mil.

 

[Nokio]

Captain America's box office was lower due to competition. Harry Potter, Apes, Horrible Bosses, TF3, Smurfs, The Help,Crazy Stupid Love, cowboys & aliens, etc. Harry Potter probally hurt its box office by sucking up all the 3D screens.

I'd agree with HP somewhat and Cap did knock Mr Potter out the number 1 spot the next weekend but the other films???? A lot of these comic films just have ceilings.

 

[Vulklin]

'Avengers' opens to £2.5m at UK box office

Published Friday, Apr 27 2012, 15:52 BST

maybe the friday figures will be in anytime now?

it is 15.55 t:

 

[Nokio]

A $200 million opening for a movie can happen, however, it would require extreme popularity and an incredible marketing. In this case, The Avengers debuting to $200 million is highly unlikely. I currently predict a staggering $164.3 million for its friday-sunday opening.

Why a film can open to $200 million?
Remember how Harry Potter opened to $90+ million on its opening day, then what was stopping it from grossing the same amount and more the next day?(if the film didn't take any drops from friday-sunday it would have grossed $270 MILLION). But, as I said, a powerful drop is usually seen from the opening day up until Sunday. So, $200 million is far-fetched for the Avengers but who knows in the future $200 million will just be another milestone.

For more news about international and domestic grosses about the Avengers vist: http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2012/04/avengers-worldwide-forecast_24.html

Well wasn't that 90 mil including midnight screenings? I'm sure I remember reading that it was. That was also expected to be huge. I kid you not the theater near my house had shows running all night after midnight. I'm talking about show times at 4am and they were sold out too. While your logic is sound the difference is HP was expected to be huge and a lot of theaters cleared everything and showing no other films after midnight to show Potter only. I saw that on the news and they were sold out. Yeah it's possible but it depends on the theater count too as well as runtime.

 

[ElMariachi]

I'd agree with HP somewhat and Cap did knock Mr Potter out the number 1 spot the next weekend but the other films???? A lot of these comic films just have ceilings.

Take a look at the box office of those other movies. They all made like $150-200 million WW. HP was the third highest grossing film of time. Cap did really well given the competition IMO.

 

[Nokio]

The only really big movie star is Liam Neeson. Taylor Kitsch just had John Carter which imo did not really made him into a big star like he thought it would, and neither Brooklyn Decker (model) nor Rieanna (singer) would what you'd call a movie star.

Well Thor was an unknown comic character that pulled in about 180 mil with no major big stars that were box office draws and it did better then I ever expected. Thor was an off beat concept or more obscure then other comic properties and one of the few comic characters that i felt how the heck are they going to do this and one I saw that too much could go wrong easier then others translating into a movie. I just felt that Thor was better served showing up in an Avengers movie first. I really thought Thor was gonna tank and the trailers looked just ok but they pulled it off. I enjoyed the film a lot.

The biggest star in Thor was Hopkins and he's not a box office draw type star. On the flip said My point is a movie can sell itself. Battleship has a lot of eye candy and big action based on the trailers. That can draw the general audience in alone in some cases. On the flip side John Cater cost a ton and it tanked big time. You just never know when a surprise is gonna happen. BattleShip could do TF numbers and I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Musty002]

UK figures 3rd highest single day opener http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...ers-blows-the-doors-off-the-box-office-in-uk/

Biggest or second biggest opener of all time in:

Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India (and it was going up against Tezz, which is massive for them), Philippines.

There's only 4 other countries its actually opened in - France, Germany, Romania and Norway - who are never good indicators of general trends. The problem is those countries already had Battleship out. So in France and Germany, these films will have definite legs after the weekend and longer.


We still haven't had China, Japan, or Russia. Once they start making records, Marvel will have this in the bag.

3rd highest Thursday opener of all time in UK (not single day)

 

[Quasimod0]

I had forgotten that cap took potter out of the top spot. Thats so great

 

[Nokio]

I just seen a 10.40 AM showing

It was not packed at all. Maybe 50 people max. Seemed less than half full.

So I wonder if that is a trend and meaning Avengers will be big, but not massive big big

Well I saw Hunger Games at 1030 pm and the theater was just half full and on opening weekend Sat and we all know the numbers that did and I live in Miami and not some small area. That was all the more reason I was shocked by that massive opening. Just saying.

 

[Nokio]

I had forgotten that cap took potter out of the top spot. Thats so great

Yeah Cap did and Potter was only number one that first week but it made so much in that first opening and it had strong enough legs despite never returning to number that it made a good amount domestically.

 

[BigThor]

I'm not sure a 200 million Cap movie is really needed. That's insane and I say that based on the character and what he's capable of and the villains he'd be taking on. Even if the Cap movie had grossed over 300 mil domestically I as Marvel wouldn't sink a massive budget into a sequel cause it's not needed. You don't have to throw more money at certain films because the first was profitable. Yeah I know their's AIM and Hydra and they are tech based villains and such but still 200 million is too high and not needed. I'm not saying a studio wouldn't do it cause they'd want a summer tentpole with the all the fx and big action but just because you can doesn't mean it's needed. I've always been in the minority probably that Hollywood wastes or over ballon budget on a lot of their films. A 200 million Lone Ranger movie comes to mind that was rumored a few months back. WTF? 200 million for the Lone Ranger starring Depp? I still don't see the justification for that.

Now if Thor had done huge numbers and based on the character and the fantasy element of his back ground I'd give his film a higher budget. I can see a Thor flick costing 200 mil. Is it needed? Probably not but spending that kind of money for Thor is more justifiable then a Cap movie. Some may disagree but i stand by opinion. Pouring 200 plus mil into a Captain America film is not fiscally smart even if the film is gonna do huge numbers. You can do it 100 plus million and make more profit. I personally didn't see where they spent 150 million at for the 1st Cap movie. Not sure what the exact budget was but I believe it was between 140-150 mil.

Ok this point's already been brought up, try reading every post before bringing up a dead conversation.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Gee its 10:40 here in my neck of the woods and its raining. Ipso FATSO it must be raining everywhere. Im gonna run with that.

 

[TheGambler]

Big international numbers:

Huge $73.1M WED-FRI intl for #Avengers not incl mega mkts China, Rus, Jpn. 3rd best opening day ever for US pic in India.

- Source

 

[warhorse78]

Gee its 10:40 here in my neck of the woods and its raining. Ipso FATSO it must be raining everywhere. Im gonna run with that.

It's 12:30PM where I'm at, and it's been dreary all day. In fact, when I woke up this morning, I thought it was maybe 6:00, but was shocked to see it was already 9AM, that's how dark it is here. And creepily still. Maybe we might get a tornado. Hope not.

Well, I know for a fact my first showing of The Avengers is sold out, and had been for a month (going to the Marathon) ,but, I am reading across the net that chicks really don't like the movie. I'm a chick, and don't understand how women can like Twilight, but not Avengers, when it's got ten times the sex appeal in it????? I just don't get it.

 

[conan69]

I prefer to go to early morning screenings. Some of the top grossing films on the domestic and international list, Ive seen in theaters, with 10 people.

I think this movie is going to be huge. People are going to go back for 3 or4 showings.

I saw it last night, and am seeing back to back again on friday.