The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Dave40]

It's May 5th.

Thanks!

 

[KangConquers]

I don't think Cap underperformed at all. It did well financially. It was a solid building block for the character and the Avengers will give him an even bigger boost moving forward. Now if the sequel performs to the same B.O. level as the First Avenger, then I would call that a disappointment.

The formula for success is generally 2.5 times budget for a worldwide gross. This generally recoups all of the expenses, given that the studios get between 45-55% of ticket.


Thor at a $150 M budget, needed $375 M ww. It exceeded that number. Cap needed $350 M ww it also exceeded that number.

I've seen various numbers for TIH's budget, from $125-150 M, but ultimately, the less than $300 M it did worldwide was not enough to recoup the costs. Not a devestating loss, but when you walk away from a film in the hole, it doesn't make you want to go back for another round.

Given neither Hulk film made a legitimate profit, it's understandable that Feige doesn't want to go for a 3rd round.

 

[Shadowlord X]

It should clear 600M+ overseas as long as it is as big in China and Russia as it has been everywhere else

Great!!! Let's keep our fingers crossed!

 

[KangConquers]

It should clear 600M+ overseas as long as it is as big in China and Russia as it has been everywhere else

So it will have a 10.0 multiplier in these countries? That seems a little high...

 

[Chewy]

So it will have a 10.0 multiplier in these countries? That seems a little high...

It's going to have close to a 150M 5 day opening weekend...

That's not including China, Russia, Japan, and a few others

 

[KangConquers]

It's going to have close to a 150M 5 day opening weekend...

That's not including China, Russia, Japan, and a few others

Is that enough for $600 M-700 M ww though? That sounds more like it'd wind up at $500 foreign.

 

[Chewy]

Yes, it should be enough

China might bring in 100M alone

 

[KangConquers]

In my eyes, this needed a $250 M foreign opener for $600-700 M to even be on the table. If it stops at $150, even with China and Russia, I just don't think a Billion is there.

 

[Chewy]

That's not really how it works. It's in the top 2 or 3 openings of all time in 3/4s of these countries. 250M opening was impossible.

 

[Quasimod0]

Apparently it opened bigger than many of the films that went on to make over a billion

 

[KangConquers]

That's not really how it works. It's in the top 2 or 3 openings of all time in 3/4s of these countries. 250M opening was impossible.

Transformers and Harry Potter both did over $300 M in foreign receipts on their opening weekends.

 

[Chewy]

Transformers and Harry Potter both did over $300 M in foreign receipts on their opening weekends.

Well firstly they both did well over 750M overseas and secondly they opened on a summer Tuesday in the majority of countries. This opened on a school Tuesday/Wednesday in a few countries and on Friday in most others.

 

[KangConquers]

I hope you're right; I really want this to be Marvel's highest grossing film ever. Then I'll never have to read people refer to Cap and Thor as "B-list" again.

 

[Gamma Burst]

I hope you're right; I really want this to be Marvel's highest grossing film ever. Then I'll never have to read people refer to Cap and Thor as "B-list" again.

Same here!

 

[cherokeesam]

question

why did thor and captain america both get sequels but hulk did not?

was there a huge difference in box office?

surely that will be corrected now

People keep forgetting that Marvel is developing a Hulk live-action TV series with Guillermo Del Toro. That's probably why Marvel is taking a wait and see approach to that project before they determine whether or not a return to the theatrical series is warranted.

If the TV show fails (or fails to get off the ground), then I'm sure Feige will revisit the possibility of a TIH sequel (or even --- god forbid --- another reboot).

 

[Ultimatehero]

I highly doubt they'll do another reboot. People seem to be loving Ruffalo as Bruce Banner, they'd just use him but continue the story from AVENGERS since Incredible Hulk is part of the Avenger's universe. Anyone know if the TV show could possibly be connected to the MU?

 

[Chewy]

I don't think the TV show is going to actually happen.

 

[Vulklin]

BOX OFFICE: MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS Crosses $73.1M; Continues Breaking Records

Marvel's The Avengers isn't released in the US until May 4th (although that hasn't stopped it nabbing over 60% of all pre-sold movie tickets online) but more figures from overseas are in and things are looking very, very good for Joss Whedon's superhero ensemble! Josh Wilding - 4/28/2012

More box office figures for Marvel's The Avengers have been revealed by Deadline, and after just three days of release, things are looking even better than expected for the film which combines the heroes from Iron Man/Iron Man 2, The Incredible Hulk, Thor and Captain America: The First Avenger all into one incredible blockbuster. The film has so far been released in 41 territories and box office now stands at a total of $71.3M. This is only 70% of its full foreign run, and the figures from key territories are as follows.

• Australia $11.1M
• UK $9.4M
• France $6.8M
• Italy $5.8M
• Mexico $4.7M
• Korea $4.5M
• Taiwan $3.6M
• Germany $3.4M
• Philippines $3.4M
• Brazil $2.8M
• Hong Kong $1.8M
• Spain $1.7M.

I **** my pants

9.4 million from UK in only 2 days and one was a preview day

It is going beyond 15 million for sure

How close to Potter's 23 million?

 

[Marvel]

I'm going to shell out $40 for that Marvel Marathon at AMC on Thursday.

My question, were does that money get registered? Is it all going to Avengers opening day numbers since part of the $40 is for a midnight showing?????????

 

[Ultimatehero]

I'm going to shell out $40 for that Marvel Marathon at AMC on Thursday.

My question, were does that money get registered? Is it all going to Avengers opening day numbers since part of the $40 is for a midnight showing?????????

I'm unsure, but I think you're buying something from the theater ALONG WITH tickets to Avengers midnight. The rest wouldn't be counted. But it would go to MARVEL.

 

[warhorse78]

I'm unsure, but I think you're buying something from the theater ALONG WITH tickets to Avengers midnight. The rest wouldn't be counted. But it would go to MARVEL.

You talking about the 3D glasses?

 

[Ultimatehero]

Um... unsure what the question is asking... the marathon tickets would be counted as a 're-release' most likely with the theater and MARVEL sharing the proceeds and 'The Avengers' alone will be counted as part of 'The Avengers' box office. There's special 3D glasses??

 

[warhorse78]

No, Raiden's right, Bim. It depends on the country, but certain major overseas markets (Russia, Japan) much more into 3D than the US is currently.

I've known people who have seen 3D films in Japan and China, and they say that the experience is way better than anything we get over here in the States. They don't have that "darkness" issue going on, apparently they are using state of the art projectors and the brightest bulbs to enhance the 3D experience. Anyone else here can confirm such a thing?

 

[warhorse78]

Um... unsure what the question is asking... the marathon tickets would be counted as a 're-release' most likely with the theater and MARVEL sharing the proceeds and 'The Avengers' alone will be counted as part of 'The Avengers' box office. There's special 3D glasses??

Yep, these, supposedly.

 

[Spider-Vader]

Will those be in Regal theaters?