The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Webfoot Hero]

Its not necessarily Kitsch fault, he just got dealt a bad hand. John Carter had ineffective marketing while audiences scoffed at what Battleship wanted to be and didn't bite.

I mean I argue Worthington can't carry a film but Avatar and Clash of the Titans were successful so he doesn't have that reputation. If they bombed he would be deemed to not fit as a leading man.

Kitsch just needs to stay away from these big blockbuster movies for a bit and build his resume up until something comes along that has a chance at being somewhat successful.

 

[Liam_H]

You see if John Carter could've been good and successful as much as Disney wanted it to he would build a good chunk of goodwill with the audience. And that goes a long way.

 

[KangConquers]

I feel that as a movie going public, we lost something potentially magical when Disney bungled John Carter; it's an IP with several built in sequels, and is an interesting turning point in popular culture, an important stepping stone on the way to just about everything everybody on this board enjoys.

With the proper marketing of the proper product (i.e. one where the best performance isn't given by an 800 lb cgi Dog) it could've been another top tier franchise.

 

[lespaul59]

I went and saw TA for the third time today and the theater was between 1/3 and 1/2 full. I've been to see movies on opening weekend and there has been smaller crowds than TA had at the showing I went to today. Also this was my second 3D viewing which is also the first time I've been to see a 3D movie twice.

Will Marvel get any of the box office money from Spider-Man or do they just get a flat rate for the license? I had never really thought about this untill today while wating the SM trailer.

 

[Stark Bauer]

TA made it into the Top 10 all time domestic box office club! It made an estimated $15,308,000 Friday, leap-frogging Transformers 2, Toy Story 3 and Spider-Man 1 bringing its domestic total to $417,329,000.

I have a theory...I am not sure how solid this is, but then again that's why this is the "prediction" thread lol.

We may have severely underestimated The Avengers final domestic total.

By my calculations,
TA should finish its domestic BO run with
around 698,411,945 million dollars ON THE LOW END.

It is on course to SMASH TITANIC. But fall just short of Avatar.

How I got this number:
take the opening weekend number of 207,438,708 and multiply by 3.366835206005868

Since I feel these two movies are very similar in quality, I took The Dark Knight as a sample
(158,411,483 x 3.366835206005868 = 533,345,358)

However
TA has the edge in that it is faster paced, has broader mass market appeal
as well as people rewatching it that do not typically rewatch this type of movie.
I am talking non-comic book fanboys going to see this movie multiple times!

This is unprecedented for comic book movies and we may end up seeing TA end up with 800 million at the most.

Internationally, this is harder to predict. But for the sake of predicting,
1,125,117,937 again, on the LOW END.
when added with the domestic total would place TA 3rd place on the WW BO with 1,823,529,882
If TA should pull off the 800 million miracle number, then we could see a 2,088,772,845 WW BO total.
Which even in the best case scenario, it will remain 3rd place WW. Domestic is where TA will make the most progress.

 

[redp]

TA made it into the Top 10 all time domestic box office club! It made an estimated $15,308,000 Friday, leap-frogging Transformers 2, Toy Story 3 and Spider-Man 1 bringing its domestic total to $417,329,000.

I have a theory...I am not sure how solid this is, but then again that's why this is the "prediction" thread lol.

We may have severely underestimated The Avengers final domestic total.

By my calculations,
TA should finish its domestic BO run with
around 698,411,945 million dollars ON THE LOW END.

It is on course to SMASH TITANIC. But fall just short of Avatar.

How I got this number:
take the opening weekend number of 207,438,708 and multiply by 3.366835206005868

Since I feel these two movies are very similar in quality, I took The Dark Knight as a sample
(158,411,483 x 3.366835206005868 = 533,345,358)

However
TA has the edge in that it is faster paced, has broader mass market appeal
as well as people rewatching it that do not typically rewatch this type of movie.
I am talking non-comic book fanboys going to see this movie multiple times!

This is unprecedented for comic book movies and we may end up seeing TA end up with 800 million at the most.

Internationally, this is harder to predict. But for the sake of predicting,
1,125,117,937 again, on the LOW END.
when added with the domestic total would place TA 3rd place on the WW BO with 1,823,529,882
If TA should pull off the 800 million miracle number, then we could see a 2,088,772,845 WW BO total.
Which even in the best case scenario, it will remain 3rd place WW. Domestic is where TA will make the most progress.

These are outrageous figures that will never happen. Reasons to be:

1. The Dark Knight was released in Summer so daily revenues are higher than that of Avengers.
2. You can't just multiply two numbers and say that is the final gross.
3. In your predictions, your suggesting that the drops from one weekend to another are really low; thats not happening the drops are more than 50%.
4. Avatar which ultimately grossed $760+M had one of the lightest drops for such a epic action movie, The Avengers, on the other hand, is suffering steep drops.
5. Competition next week is worse as it will be dethroned by MIB3.


Why your international figure is also outlandish and quite impossible?

1.Harry Potter that has a large fan base that took more than 10 years to create made $900M+.
2. The Avengers is quite new in overseas markets, although Iron Man and Thor were released before, but the mix-up in itself is new.
3. Chinese numbers aren't that good, the only way a film makes that much is if it garners loads of money in China or Japan. Japan can pull a max of $120M for the Avengers in August. So let's say now the film ends at $800M, it will total up to $920M, never $1 billion+.
4. A $1 billion+ international take is possible only if it doesn't experience a steep drop this weekend in overseas markets.
5. International Markets have a competition that varies from country to country.

 

[Stark Bauer]

These are outrageous figures that will never happen. Reasons to be:

1. The Dark Knight was released in Summer so daily revenues are higher than that of Avengers.
2. You can't just multiply two numbers and say that is the final gross.
3. In your predictions, your suggesting that the drops from one weekend to another are really low; thats not happening the drops are more than 50%.
4. Avatar which ultimately grossed $760+M had one of the lightest drops for such a epic action movie, The Avengers, on the other hand, is suffering steep drops.
5. Competition next week is worse as it will be dethroned by MIB3.


Why your international figure is also outlandish and quite impossible?

1.Harry Potter that has a large fan base that took more than 10 years to create made $900M+.
2. The Avengers is quite new in overseas markets, although Iron Man and Thor were released before, but the mix-up in itself is new.
3. Chinese numbers aren't that good, the only way a film makes that much is if it garners loads of money in China or Japan. Japan can pull a max of $120M for the Avengers in August. So let's say now the film ends at $800M, it will total up to $920M, never $1 billion+.
4. A $1 billion+ international take is possible only if it doesn't experience a steep drop this weekend in overseas markets.
5. International Markets have a competition that varies from country to country.

I did not want to post the international prediction, even I felt that was outlandish, but fantastic if it came to pass. Plus I really know nothing about international BO. I will stand by my domestic prediciton however, I would wager that it will surely cross 600 million near the end of its run, but the reasons you stated esp. 3 and 4 make me see the error of my theory. Still, wouldn't it be good if it came true

Thanks for fleshing out your points. I will revise this prediction to: at least 600 million domestically.

 

[redp]

I did not want to post the international prediction, even I felt that was outlandish, but fantastic if it came to pass. Plus I really know nothing about international BO. I will stand by my domestic prediciton however, I would wager that it will surely cross 600 million near the end of its run, but the reasons you stated esp. 3 and 4 make me see the error of my theory. Still, wouldn't it be good if it came true

Thanks for fleshing out your points. I will revise this prediction to: at least 600 million domestically.

It would be amazing...I have been waiting years for one movie to defeat Titanic or Avatar. I guess Avatar 2 will do that but then again it's also a Cameron Movie. Don't get me wrong I like his movies but I am bored of always having a Cameron movie on the top.

At this point in time, a $600 million domestic gross seems plausible. Internationally, I am aiming at anything above $800M and definitely below $1 billion.

 

[rayc1971]

600mill domestic is realistic its not catching avatar

 

[Stark Bauer]

It would be amazing...I have been waiting years for one movie to defeat Titanic or Avatar. I guess Avatar 2 will do that but then again it's also a Cameron Movie. Don't get me wrong I like his movies but I am bored of always having a Cameron movie on the top.

At this point in time, a $600 million domestic gross seems plausible. Internationally, I am aiming at anything above $800M and definitely below $1 billion.

I think all the hype and energy from this thread made me drunk with optimism. But you grounded me back to reality lol. Has there ever been a BO thread spanning 5 parts?

Yeah..same here. I like Cameron and all, but if he were to beat his own movies at least let it be something epic like TERMINATOR VS. ROBOCOP or a proper ALIENS VS PREDATOR based off the comic books. Cameron can do Sci-Fi like no other. Back on topic. Hoping to see the Avengers tomorrow for only the 2nd time with my friend. Possible 3rd time in June with my parents. Then wait for the BR.

I am a bit worried that if Marvel rushes the BR/DVD release, TA may not make as much as it can in its first BO run. I say they keep it in theaters until the summer is over and pull it sometime in the fall. September-October. I miss the good ol days when we had to wait for the big blockbuster to come out...ET, The Lion King took like a year to come out on VHS. Nowadays some movies get released on DVD two months after the theatrical release date (if it bombs). I hope TA gets at least 14 weeks minimum in NA. Avatar was pulled out prematurely in comparison with Titanic. It was still averaging over $1000 per screen when they pulled it from theaters. Titanic was averaging less than 100$, 11 to 53 dollars per screen and the studios were obviously milking it for all its worth.

 

[Liam_H]

@Stark Bauer
Your numbers were quite ridiculous but there is absolutely no shame in that since you completely backed it up with logic. Like redp pointed out, it won't make that much with the major reasons being its schedule placement and steeper drops. Predicting box office numbers can be fun which is why I and a lot of people like playing around with the numbers.

 

[spider-neil]

I don't think avengers is passing 600m domestic but it will certainly pass 500m to be the number 3 domestic hit of all time.

 

[Jordanstine]

According to the demi-God RTHeimdall, Friday is more on the $16M.

- Friday ~$16M
- Saturday ~$25.2M
- Sunday ~$18.7M

Weekend estimate of $59.9M.

RTH just came in and said Saturday is looking around $25M, so we're looking at a Sunday around $18M as my forecast above.

Still not sure if Friday is $15.3M (Nikki) or $16M (Rth - I'm betting). If so, I really hope we hit $60M when the actuals come in since it's a nice round number, but it's looking more like maybe $58M.

 

[Infinity9999x]

To which I counter: how often would you get the CHANCE to go see your favorite movies?

How many theaters do you think existed in the US in 1939, as compared to 2012? How many reels of GWTW actually existed, and could be sent out to those cinemas, as opposed to the thousands of screenings movies get nowadays? And just how many movie tickets could yer average joe afford in 1939, when the whole world was in the middle of the Great Depression?

*That's* what makes GWTW numbers jaw-dropping, and a truly cosmic feat that will never be equalled again.

There were less theaters, it's true, however, like I said, people went to the movies more often. Especially in the 30's and 40's because it was one way to get to see the newsreels. Again, what GWTW did was very impressive, but that movie was literally re-released for years. That doesn't happen in todays era.

 

[Tymminator]

Still, looks like it will hold a tad better than 50%, not to shabby.

 

[redp]

The Avengers makes $1,180,400,000 worldwide(#4th worldwide) and opens to a studio estimate of $55.1M.

 

[PokeJ]

My Gawd, what a beast.

 

[Chewy]

I don't think avengers is passing 600m domestic but it will certainly pass 500m to be the number 3 domestic hit of all time.

It'll pass 600m.

 

[thalidomide]

Noice!

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Sunday Update: The official release from Disney

MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS (Marvel): 3rd week of release
Worldwide, Marvel's The Avengers has surpassed Toy Story 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest to become the biggest Disney release of all time and is currently the #4 film of all time on a global basis.

DOMESTIC WKND ESTIMATE (May 18-20): $55.1M at 4,249 locations (down 47% from last weekend). Weekend theater average: $12,958.

INTERNATIONAL WKND ESTIMATE (May 18-20): $56.0M
MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS is currently in release in 54 territories representing about 95% of the international market.

ESTIMATED DOMESTIC CUME: $457.1M MILLION
ESTIMATED INTERNATIONAL CUME: $723.3 MILLION
ESTIMATED GLOBAL CUME: $1.180.4 MILLION

HIGHLIGHTS:
Crossed $1B global threshold in 19 days (May 13). First Marvel film and fifth Disney release to reach $1B.
Currently #4 film of all time globally, #6 film of all time domestically, and #7 film of all time internationally.
On Saturday, the film became Disney's highest grossing film domestically, passing PIRATES OF THE CARRIBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST.
In Latin America, MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS has accumulated $171M to date, exceeding the entire run of AVATAR and TITANIC to become the highest grossing film inhistory.
Highest-grossing film of 2012 on a global, international, and domestic basis.
Highest-grossing Disney release of all time globally and domestically.

Domestic:
On Saturday, the film became Disney's highest grossing film domestically, passing PIRATES OF THE CARRIBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST.
Fastest film to reach $400M (14 days), $300M (9 days) and $200M (3 days).
Biggest opening weekend of all time ($207.4M).
Biggest second weekend of all time ($103M) and the first time in history a film crossed the $100M+ mark in its 2nd weekend.
Highest Saturday ($69.5M) and Sunday ($57M) totals of all time.
Second-biggest single-day gross of all time ($80.8M).
Marvel's The Avengers has passed the total domestic cumes for Captain America ($177M), Thor ($181M), Iron Man 2 ($312.4M) and Iron Man ($318.4M).
International:
Marvel's The Avengers surpassed the international box office totals of Captain America ($192M), Iron Man ($266.7M), Thor ($268.3M) and Iron Man 2 ($311.5M) in just 12days of release.
Biggest opening weekend of all time in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Central America, Peru, Bolivia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, United Arab Emirates.

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news

 

[redp]

Weekend Report: The Avengers subjugates any newcomers and dominates both the international and North American box office. Read its international and North American performance @ http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2012/05/avengers-once-again-rules-international.html

 

[thalidomide]

Yey Philippines!

 

[Octavias]

Couple points to think about... first of all I dont often go out to the movies anymore, but when i do i will often catch more than one flick. when MIB3 comes out i am certainly seeing it, but i will likely catch the avengers again while i am out. Its a good enough movie that it may be true again if the Avengers is still in the theaters when DKR comes out. Im sure there are other out there like me, so when these other comic book movies come out It may cause a small spike in the avengers totals. I think the avengers should peter out oround 600 million, but there also seem to be some pretty strong legs on this beast. Avatar and titanic were carried by a group of people who saw it repeatedly along with word of mouth. I have lots of friends who have yet to see it, but as more and more people are giving it a great review, are now planning to go when the crowds die down.I also have friends who have seen it repeatedly. its hard to predict which way this will turn for at least two more weeks....

 

[Superhero 101]

It'll pass 600m.

I don't think it will maybe around 550-580

 

[PokeJ]

I don't think it will maybe around 550-580

No way, it's a cinch to pass Titanic.