The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[PokeJ]

Man, that Gone With the Wind number blows my mind. Geeze!

 

[warhorse78]

Man i just feel bad for kitsch. Dude can't get a break. First Wolvie, then Carter, now Battleship. Dang.

Maybe he needs to do what Sam Worthington has done (remember, he was being shoved down our throats for a while now) and play a CGI character in a James Cameron film.

Personally, I get nothing from the guy, he seems like an actor more suited to TV than to big production action flicks like the three you mentioned. When watching John Carter, I couldn't help but think that maybe Joseph Gordon Levitt, Josh Holloway, Tom Hardy or Chris Pine would have been a better fit.

 

[metaphysician]

Eh, I think he was fine in John Carter. The movie's failure had nothing to do with his performance whatsoever.

 

[Quasimod0]

I thought he was perfect for john carter. I think he has a classic look that fit the time period. The movie's failure really didnt have that much to do with the movie

 

[Quasimod0]

I can't wait for it to smash TDK domestically, and Potter worldwide to come in #3 of all time in both Dom and WW totals. t:

[YT]
http://youtu.be/1iHkqgKMBDc
[/YT]

 

[redp]

After garnering an estimated $15.308M on Friday, The Avengers should end up pulling in a solid $56.8 million over its third weekend. Internationally, it made $13.9M on Friday. Read More: The now updated version of my article is found in the link below--
http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2012/05/avengers-third-weekend-predictions.html

 

[Donut]

So what movie do you guys think will be the one to dethrone The Avengers from the #1 weekend spot ?

Men In Black 3 - Questionable

Snow White & The Huntsman - I don't see Kristen Stewart topping The Avengers

It would be cool if it stays in the #1 spot until Prometheus comes out

 

[WilliamK99]

I am tired of people using the GWTW card and saying it would have made billions if released today or if tickets cost the same back then... The problem is, what competition did GWTW or any movie released before 1950 have? There was no TV, no Internet, no pirating of films, no DVD release 6 months after the movie release... It was a different era, thus more people went to the movies...

What Avengers has done, is impressive...it really doesn't matter what other films 70 or 80 years ago did.

 

[yads]

So what movie do you guys think will be the one to dethrone The Avengers from the #1 weekend spot ?

Men In Black 3 - Questionable

Snow White & The Huntsman - I don't see Kristen Stewart topping The Avengers

It would be cool if it stays in the #1 spot until Prometheus comes out

Men in Black 3 will be number one next weekend.

 

[marcvader]

MIB3 will be #1 next weekend.

 

[redp]

Men in Black 3 will take the #1 seat from The Avengers. I am currently aiming at a $60M+ opening for MIB3.

 

[Jordanstine]

According to the demi-God RTHeimdall, Friday is more on the $16M.

- Friday ~$16M
- Saturday ~$25.2M
- Sunday ~$18.7M

Weekend estimate of $59.9M.

 

[Infinity9999x]

I am tired of people using the GWTW card and saying it would have made billions if released today or if tickets cost the same back then... The problem is, what competition did GWTW or any movie released before 1950 have? There was no TV, no Internet, no pirating of films, no DVD release 6 months after the movie release... It was a different era, thus more people went to the movies...

What Avengers has done, is impressive...it really doesn't matter what other films 70 or 80 years ago did.

Yeah. While it is true that Gone With The Wind is the highest movie if you account for inflation, it was released in a time where a film could be re-released for years. It was just a different time.

Heck, you can even say that about Titanic. Were Titanic released today, I highly doubt it would run in theatres as long as it did in 97. Even then, they didn't have the massive amount of internet pirating, or the studious willing to rush a film to DVD because of how profitable DVD sales can be.

 

[Quasimod0]

I still see those titanic vhs 2-packs all the time

 

[cherokeesam]

So what movie do you guys think will be the one to dethrone The Avengers from the #1 weekend spot ?

Men In Black 3 - Questionable

Snow White & The Huntsman - I don't see Kristen Stewart topping The Avengers

It would be cool if it stays in the #1 spot until Prometheus comes out

I'd say MIB3 is 90% likely to do the deed; I'd be literally shocked if it didn't knock Avengers off the #1 throne.

If, however, Avengers *does* beat MIB3, then it will likely be Prometheus, because Avengers will sure as hell do better b.o. than SWATH.

I am tired of people using the GWTW card and saying it would have made billions if released today or if tickets cost the same back then... The problem is, what competition did GWTW or any movie released before 1950 have? There was no TV, no Internet, no pirating of films, no DVD release 6 months after the movie release... It was a different era, thus more people went to the movies...

What Avengers has done, is impressive...it really doesn't matter what other films 70 or 80 years ago did.

That's kind of like saying, "I don't care that Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron didn't have to resort to steroids to hit that many home runs; the fact remains that Mark 'Juice' McGwire put up the bigger numbers, so that's all that counts."

 

[Figs]

So is avengers still number 1 for the weekend?

 

[marcvader]

Interesting how this weekend total estimate keeps creeping up just like the last two.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Eh, I think he was fine in John Carter. The movie's failure had nothing to do with his performance whatsoever.

Of course it did. He needed to give an iconic performance and he didnt. Given the money invested and the fact that no one knew who or what the hell john carter was, a bland nobody just wasnt gonna cut it. Please see sam Worthington for clarity on this point.

That's not to say the guy won't be good in the future. Obviously somebody in lala land with clout sees something in the lad. (Josh whatshisface was good in 21 jump street for example)
But JC, a wonderful IP, is now dead as a doornail because the producers were unwilling to pay a talented, charismatic, at least semi-established leading man actor 10 mil give or take. Stupid stupid stupid.

There were bigger problems with the movie as well as the marketing, but the casting was a biggie.

 

[KangConquers]

I'd say MIB3 is 90% likely to do the deed; I'd be literally shocked if it didn't knock Avengers off the #1 throne.

If, however, Avengers *does* beat MIB3, then it will likely be Prometheus, because Avengers will sure as hell do better b.o. than SWATH.



That's kind of like saying, "I don't care that Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron didn't have to resort to steroids to hit that many home runs; the fact remains that Mark 'Juice' McGwire put up the bigger numbers, so that's all that counts."

I think you have next to no understanding of box office. Regardless if MIB3 bombs or not, Avengers will do at least a 45% drop for next weekend, and another 45-50% the next week. Unless you're telling me you don't think SWATH can do 15 M OW, then you really don't understand that box office gross is a game of diminishing returns.

MIB3 will beat Avengers handily, roughly $80 M to $35 M. SWATH will knock Avengers down to #3 the following weekend, and by Prometheus's release, Avengers will be barely holding a top 5 spot.

 

[Infinity9999x]

That's kind of like saying, "I don't care that Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron didn't have to resort to steroids to hit that many home runs; the fact remains that Mark 'Juice' McGwire put up the bigger numbers, so that's all that counts."

Not really. Don't get me wrong, GWTW is impressive, but it was released in a time when there was no TV, and movies would could run in theatres for YEARS. Literally, years. That's something that's unheard of today.

Think about it, if we had not TV and no Internet and the cinemas were the only time we could see our favorite movies, how often would you go? I'd see Avengers at least 6 times, becaue it would be the only time I'd see it.

It was a very different time. Your metaphor actually works in reverse. In your analogy, GWTW was the steorid hitting McGwire because it had the odds stacked in it's favor. Movies today are the Ruth example with fewer "games" to play and a lot of more detractors going against it. (Internet downloading, TV, and DVD sales being the equivalent of a shorter season, no night games, and worse equiptment).

 

[Joeyjojo72]

MIB3 will probably beat Avengers this weekend. But that doesnt mean a big opening. The studio is praying for 80 at minimum, but it could easily be a disappointment. wouldnt even be a shock. MIB2 was already a sequel that nobody asked for. And the trailers only promise more of the same, plus Josh Brolin doing a TLJ impression. Yay.

But since everyone is making a prediction, ill go 68 million MIB3 to 40 million for Avengers.

 

[cherokeesam]

I think you have next to no understanding of box office. Regardless if MIB3 bombs or not, Avengers will do at least a 45% drop for next weekend, and another 45-50% the next week. Unless you're telling me you don't think SWATH can do 15 M OW, then you really don't understand that box office gross is a game of diminishing returns.

MIB3 will beat Avengers handily, roughly $80 M to $35 M. SWATH will knock Avengers down to #3 the following weekend, and by Prometheus's release, Avengers will be barely holding a top 5 spot.

I think you have next to no understanding that many, many films have held on to #1 for 4-5 consecutive weeks, and quite a few have gone on to even more than that (Rocky IV, ET, The Fugitive, On Golden Pond, Ghostbusters, Avatar, Porky's, Fatal Attraction, Back to the Future, Good Morning Vietnam, Crocodile Dundee, Home Alone, Tootsie, Beverly Hills Cop, and Titanic). If Avengers edges out MIB3 for a 4th straight week at #1, that *won't* be a major accomplishment at all, as there are 54 other films that have done *at least* that.

I think you also have next to no understanding that Memorial Day is a huge 3-day holiday in the United States, and will likely see plenty of people going to the theaters. And yes, an ungodly number of them would rather watch Avengers for the umpteenth time than go check out MIB3, Chernobyl Diaries, or Moonrise Kingdom.

 

[cherokeesam]

Not really. Don't get me wrong, GWTW is impressive, but it was released in a time when there was no TV, and movies would could run in theatres for YEARS. Literally, years. That's something that's unheard of today.

Think about it, if we had not TV and no Internet and the cinemas were the only time we could see our favorite movies, how often would you go? I'd see Avengers at least 6 times, becaue it would be the only time I'd see it.

It was a very different time. Your metaphor actually works in reverse. In your analogy, GWTW was the steorid hitting McGwire because it had the odds stacked in it's favor. Movies today are the Ruth example with fewer "games" to play and a lot of more detractors going against it. (Internet downloading, TV, and DVD sales being the equivalent of a shorter season, no night games, and worse equiptment).

To which I counter: how often would you get the CHANCE to go see your favorite movies?

How many theaters do you think existed in the US in 1939, as compared to 2012? How many reels of GWTW actually existed, and could be sent out to those cinemas, as opposed to the thousands of screenings movies get nowadays? And just how many movie tickets could yer average joe afford in 1939, when the whole world was in the middle of the Great Depression?

*That's* what makes GWTW numbers jaw-dropping, and a truly cosmic feat that will never be equalled again.

 

[PunyGod]

I think you have next to no understanding that many, many films have held on to #1 for 4-5 consecutive weeks, and quite a few have gone on to even more than that (Rocky IV, ET, The Fugitive, On Golden Pond, Ghostbusters, Avatar, Porky's, Fatal Attraction, Back to the Future, Good Morning Vietnam, Crocodile Dundee, Home Alone, Tootsie, Beverly Hills Cop, and Titanic). If Avengers edges out MIB3 for a 4th straight week at #1, that *won't* be a major accomplishment at all, as there are 54 other films that have done *at least* that.

I think you also have next to no understanding that Memorial Day is a huge 3-day holiday in the United States, and will likely see plenty of people going to the theaters. And yes, an ungodly number of them would rather watch Avengers for the umpteenth time than go check out MIB3, Chernobyl Diaries, or Moonrise Kingdom.

I think you have next to no understanding that all of those films, besides Cameron's, are more than 20 years old. The box office world is NOT what it used to be. It takes a huge cultural event like Titanic or Avatar to sustain momentum for a long period. And those films also had little competition during and after the holiday season.

These days if a movie holds the #1 spot for more than 2 weeks, especially during the summer, that is a major accomplishment. The last Harry Potter for example was only #1 for 1 week.

 

[Raiden]

MIB3 can beat TA and still fall below expectation.