The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Octavias]

Also remember this, Avengers past 450 million in 17 days. the old record was 27 days by TDK... Avatar took 28 days to reach that point... titanic 81 days.Titanic and Avatar both enjoyed multiple runs in the theater circut to reach their overall totals

I think people do not realize how long theaters hold onto major blockbusters too. TDK was released in july 2008 and stayed in theaters until march of 09. At the standars blockbuster rate of decay there isnt much chance the Avengers isnt making at least 600 million domestically. Internationally it already has surpassed Avatar as the #1 movie of all time in several locations. its well on its way there as well. I think at this point as a fan of comic book movies anything less than 1.7 billion worldwide when its run is done is going to be dissapointing and 2 billion isnt out of the realm of possibility.

 

[warhorse78]

Also remember this, Avengers past 450 million in 17 days. the old record was 27 days by TDK... Avatar took 28 days to reach that point... titanic 81 days.Titanic and Avatar both enjoyed multiple runs in the theater circut to reach their overall totals

I think people do not realize how long theaters hold onto major blockbusters too. TDK was released in july 2008 and stayed in theaters until march of 09. At the standars blockbuster rate of decay there isnt much chance the Avengers isnt making at least 600 million domestically. Internationally it already has surpassed Avatar as the #1 movie of all time in several locations. its well on its way there as well. I think at this point as a fan of comic book movies anything less than 1.7 billion worldwide when its run is done is going to be dissapointing and 2 billion isnt out of the realm of possibility.

True about theaters keeping the money makers. Avengers already proved that with the whole Dark Shadows getting ready to steam roll the IMAX theaters, with contracts and all, and theaters still managed to bypass that one.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

I don't think it will maybe around 550-580

it'll slow down and stop bringing in the big numbers but will continue to grind away throughout the summer and into the fall. $600m is a lock.

 

[Donut]

They will eventually re release it into IMAX. To help that one last Box Office push

 

[warhorse78]

They will eventually re release it into IMAX. To help that one last Box Office push

Yep, that's a certain. If Transformers 3 could do it, Avengers most definitely can.

Would I be bad if I said I want to make it a double feature today, with Battleship and The Avengers.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Hmmm...

On one hand, i can't hardly wait for the blu-ray...

On the other hand, i want this to stay on the theatres for as long as possible...

 

[redp]

Most of the numbers are pointing at $560 million, only a few are above $600 million. I think $580 million seems logical

 

[warhorse78]

Hmmm...

On one hand, i can't hardly wait for the blu-ray...

On the other hand, i want this to stay on the theatres for as long as possible...

The only big reason right now for me wanting a HD hard copy of The Avengers, it's just so I can have that final team shot pointing their weapons at Loki, so I can use it as my desk top.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

^^ heh good enough reason, i suppose

 

[Octavias]

Its hard to use Avatar or Titanic as reference points since Avatar grew in week 3 due to word of mouth and titanic just held steady forever due to the same 12 year old girls watching it religiously for months, But comparing Avengers to TDK seems ok since both are of the same genre and tapped the same moviegoers, more or less.

Avengers has been outpacing TDK right now, but lets say they did equally good for the rest of their run... in week 4 TDK did 50 millon in week 4, 30 million in week 5, and 18, 13,and 9 in each respective week 6-8. so in the first two months if Avengers is just on par, and since it had 457 mil after week 3, thats 577 million right there. and again, blockbusters of any sort that make this kind of money are in theaters for 6 to 8 months, so to argue that it wont reach 600 million youd be arguing that a movie that is making more on average than simular movies would have to have an uncharacteristic drop in revenue almost to the point that it would have to be out of theaters by month 3... that isnt happening.

 

[redp]

Its hard to use Avatar or Titanic as reference points since Avatar grew in week 3 due to word of mouth and titanic just held steady forever due to the same 12 year old girls watching it religiously for months, But comparing Avengers to TDK seems ok since both are of the same genre and tapped the same moviegoers, more or less.

Avengers has been outpacing TDK right now, but lets say they did equally good for the rest of their run... in week 4 TDK did 50 millon in week 4, 30 million in week 5, and 18, 13,and 9 in each respective week 6-8. so in the first two months if Avengers is just on par, and since it had 457 mil after week 3, thats 577 million right there. and again, blockbusters of any sort that make this kind of money are in theaters for 6 to 8 months, so to argue that it wont reach 600 million youd be arguing that a movie that is making more on average than simular movies would have to have an uncharacteristic drop in revenue almost to the point that it would have to be out of theaters by month 3... that isnt happening.

First of all Titanic was a PG-15 film so 12 year old girls couldn't watch it. And secondly if you are comparing The Avengers to TDK you should realize that the daily revenues of TDK are higher which is a concerning point if you want the film to reach the $600 milestone.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I think people are forgetting that in order for TA to pass Titanic, it needs to make over 658 mil. Titanic was re-released. It would take an extra push and a grassroots movement for all fans to pitch in their money in order for it to beat Titanic's new number. Beating its initial run would still be cause for celebration

As mentioned above, TA is averaging less per screen than TDK. I wonder if it will actually increase once school is out?

 

[Chewy]

First of all Titanic was a PG-15 film so 12 year old girls couldn't watch it. And secondly if you are comparing The Avengers to TDK you should realize that the daily revenues of TDK are higher which is a concerning point if you want the film to reach the $600 milestone.

It's only concerning if you don't know the difference between May box office and July box office

 

[Kalonthar]

The only big reason right now for me wanting a HD hard copy of The Avengers, it's just so I can have that final team shot pointing their weapons at Loki, so I can use it as my desk top.

That was the very first thing that came to my mind when that scene came up.

 

[Xeno]

First of all Titanic was a PG-15 film so 12 year old girls couldn't watch it. And secondly if you are comparing The Avengers to TDK you should realize that the daily revenues of TDK are higher which is a concerning point if you want the film to reach the $600 milestone.

PG-15? Never heard of that. In the US it was PG-13. Children younger than 13 routinely go to see PG-13 rated films, either with their parents or alone because it's a guideline rather than a mandate. (There were so many kids under ten at The Avengers that I got tired of their incessant "Let's act like we're at home" chatter.) It is the R-rated films that they can't go to, unless they look old enough to avoid being carded or have someone older buy the tickets. (And I'm not even sure that theaters bother to check ages any more.)

 

[PokeJ]

First of all Titanic was a PG-15 film so 12 year old girls couldn't watch it. And secondly if you are comparing The Avengers to TDK you should realize that the daily revenues of TDK are higher which is a concerning point if you want the film to reach the $600 milestone.

You appear to have no clue what you're talking about.

 

[Octavias]

First of all Titanic was a PG-15 film so 12 year old girls couldn't watch it. And secondly if you are comparing The Avengers to TDK you should realize that the daily revenues of TDK are higher which is a concerning point if you want the film to reach the $600 milestone.

I dont really care if it does or doesnt. Ifyou do a daily graph you will see that during weekdays TDK has a slight advantage, but that is literally because TDK was released during summer vacataion while TA is a may movie.
Do the math and you will see that if you eliminate the first 3 opening weekend days of both movies. TA has earned 11 million more dollars on virtually the same amount of screens.

Its also very important to note that both have virtually the same change in totals screens after three weeks. Im pretty sure that this is more than a fair comparison. given the same range of screens and the same timeframe, the avengers opened bigger and has slightly outpaced TDK. Since TDK has the same viewers as TA, it would stand to reason that they have the same degradation over a simular timeframe. I dont see how one can say that a movie that is moving up the charts with 450 million in 17 days isnt on pace to surpass 600 million. its just basic logic, particularly if you take into consideration that with inflation and 3d, this probably puts TA on virtually the same timeline of TDK. At this point TA has outpaced TDK by 14%. add 14% of TDK's total revenue to the 533 mil it earned and you get 607 million....

Also, im guessing you were lucky enough to miss the first titanic run.... because at least in western PA it was 99% preteen girls with their moms in that showing. i went week ten into that fiasco with my then fiancee and it felt like i walked into a girl scout troupe.... they did major stories on how that movie was being carried by preteen girls and its the primary reason so many shows after titanic came out included a forced in love story in hopes of reaching that demographic.

 

[Superhero 101]

it'll slow down and stop bringing in the big numbers but will continue to grind away throughout the summer and into the fall. $600m is a lock.

That'd be great if it does i really don't care if it makes 600 million domestic i just want it to beat Harry Potter 8s Record and claim the third spot for all time worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

So close to $500m in such a short space of time. That's been my final gross target for all these years (the other being getting to over $1BN worldwide) and after it gets there I won't care quite as much about the remaining records. It'll be nice to finish with $600m and no.3 worldwide but at $500m domestic there will be absolutely no element of disappointment for me wherever it ends up.

 

[Octavias]

Again this pace is insane for a may movie... Avatar was a freak... it took 28 days to reach 450 million, but reached 500 4 days later. there was no rhyme or reason to that atrocity's popularity. Titanic was just a slow burn... it took 81 days to get to 450 million and then another 17 days to reach 500, and went that way all the way to 600 million. it made 57 million in its second release, so its totals may be a bit higher than a single release can expect.
TDK is the most applicable genuine blockbuster that has a normal curve for popularity, and it took 27 days to reach 450 million and 45 to reach 500 million. Based on the current curve TA will bypass 500 million within 7 to 10 days, so it will be at 500 mil when the other two closest movies reached 450. its just absolutely absurd. Hopefully TDKR and the spiderman reboot do equally as well and we get more quality comic stories in the future....

 

[Hotwire]

First of all Titanic was a PG-15 film so 12 year old girls couldn't watch it. And secondly if you are comparing The Avengers to TDK you should realize that the daily revenues of TDK are higher which is a concerning point if you want the film to reach the $600 milestone.

Well, Avengers needs another $76,267,359 to take the #3 domestic spot from TDK. Given how it's doing still, I don't think that's going to be a problem.

 

[Marvolo]

First of all Titanic was a PG-15 film so 12 year old girls couldn't watch it. And secondly if you are comparing The Avengers to TDK you should realize that the daily revenues of TDK are higher which is a concerning point if you want the film to reach the $600 milestone.

I think you mean PG-13, and anyone can go see them. In the United States the only ratings with an age restriction are R and NC-17. So yes, 12 year old girls could in fact watch Titanic in theaters. I was 7 when I watched it in theaters.

I really hope this film can continue its reign at the BO. Hoping it knocks Titanic off its perch.

 

[Liam_H]

Correct me if I'm wrong but when you look young enough to be 13 don't the people still ask if you're 13 or not for a PG13 movie?

 

[Joeyjojo72]

no. not in the us. of course individual theaters can impose their own rules if they want.

 

[Liam_H]

Oh alright, I just remember being asked that all the time like 10 years ago for any PG13 movie.