The Avengers vs The Dark Knight Rises - Part 1

[DoomsdayApex]

Box office predictions appearing in a thread CREATED TO GUESS WHICH FILM WOULD MAKE MORE AT THE BOX OFFICE?

I would never have imagined.

It's fun speculating, but we've really got nothing to go on except for useless stats.

 

[PowerPacked]

The general public's interest in the film has no effect on box office?

 

[PowerPacked]

It's fun speculating, but we've really got nothing to go on except for useless stats.

Just because you consider them useless doesn't make them objectively useless.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

The general public's interest in the film has no effect on box office?

Not everyone has a Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, or MTV account. What people seem to be banking on is only a fraction.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The general public's interest in the film has no effect on box office?

Social media is not an accurate gauge of public interest. With that logic, Ghost Rider 2 and Chronicle should have made more at the box office as one has 5 million+ views and Chronicle has 9 million + views.

There are many other examples, but social media stats are objectively useless.

 

[PowerPacked]

I love how your opinion is now objective fact, PW.

 

[PowerPacked]

Not everyone has a Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, or MTV account. What people seem to be banking on is only a fraction.

Didn't someone bring up how it 'might be a sign of things to come this summer' when he mentioned his friends liked the TDKR trailer the most out of the summer's trailers? And JMC's mother.

That's where the hard data's at.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I love how your opinion is now objective fact, PW.

Me too. I love that I actually have statistics to back it up. Makes my posts look all pretty.

Looks so pretty I should add a nifty bow-tie to it. In fact......

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Didn't someone bring up how it 'might be a sign of things to come this summer' when he mentioned his friends liked the TDKR trailer the most out of the summer's trailers? And JMC's mother.

That's where the hard data's at.

Comments like those are scattered everywhere. I hardly find that to be data. Like I said, it's only a fraction. Who knows? Perhaps, the classroom next door preferred The Avengers' trailer. We can't be sure.

 

[PowerPacked]

Edit: ah screw it.

 

[PowerPacked]

Either way, personally, I don't care if TDKR beats Avengers. I just want Avengers to beat Phantom Menace. That **** does not deserve the #10 spot. Liam Neeson may have been cool in that movie, but a movie with Jar Jar should never be in the top 10 anything, unless it's of a list of worst films.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's not that I don't like your statistics. I just find them to be overall useless in your thesis that The Avengers will be better than The DarK Knight Rises due to past research already disproving your theory, which is that social media has proven to be unreliable in terms of how many people will go to the movies. /pretentious statistics professor]

The only thing social media is reliable for is word of mouth. And just so you know, newbie, because I obviously have to spell this out for you, this is an opinion, not a fact. So you can stop crying about people voicing their opinion just because they have disproven you.

 

[PowerPacked]

The thing is, you citing two movies is not 'disproving me'. Unless I'm mistaken, GR2 also had a facebook fanmade poster contest. That may have contributed to it.

I'm just saying, there's a lot of buzz for Avengers, and buzz increases box office performance.

 

[The Morningstar]

Youtube statistics aside, what I find strange here it peoples correlation with the individual Avenger characters movies.

I don't really see it. I don't think it's a case of "Well the highest grossing Marvel film was IM2 with 600 million, so where is the other 200 million coming from?"

The people seeing Avengers won't just be the people who saw the other Marvel movies. The marketing has assured this.

The last trailer is a teenage boys/20 somethings wet dream. It's frickin superheroes fighting an alien invasion. It's superheroes fighting a war. It's just a completely different level than any of Marvels other movies, or any other superhero movie for that matter. Whether they like superheroes, saw the previous movies or not, it's irrelevant. It's a massive action extravaganza that's opening in May, it has 2 weeks basically free run at the box office... the movie will be a monster.

Also what i think is unique to movies like these, is the fanboys. Usually the comic book fans make up about 5% of a box office (if that). But with true event movies like this and your TDKs, they are the movies that the fanboys go and see 5, 6, 7, **** maybe even 10 times in the cinema. It all adds up. I remember on another forum i post on when TDK came out some guy went and saw it 27 times. 27 times?!!?!? Holy ****. Too much time and too much money. lol. But hey, you gotta do what you gotta do.

 

[BigThor]

Youtube statistics aside, what I find strange here it peoples correlation with the individual Avenger characters movies.

I don't really see it. I don't think it's a case of "Well the highest grossing Marvel film was IM2 with 600 million, so where is the other 200 million coming from?"

The people seeing Avengers won't just be the people who saw the other Marvel movies. The marketing has assured this.

The last trailer is a teenage boys/20 somethings wet dream. It's frickin superheroes fighting an alien invasion. It's superheroes fighting a war. It's just a completely different level than any of Marvels other movies, or any other superhero movie for that matter. Whether they like superheroes, saw the previous movies or not, it's irrelevant. It's a massive action extravaganza that's opening in May, it has 2 weeks basically free run at the box office... the movie will be a monster.

Exactly, I just shake my head everytime I see comments saying The Avengers has no chance at grossing between 800 million and 1 billion because of IM2's performance.

 

[flickchick85]

Youtube statistics aside, what I find strange here it peoples correlation with the individual Avenger characters movies.

I don't really see it. I don't think it's a case of "Well the highest grossing Marvel film was IM2 with 600 million, so where is the other 200 million coming from?"

The people seeing Avengers won't just be the people who saw the other Marvel movies. The marketing has assured this.

The last trailer is a teenage boys/20 somethings wet dream. It's frickin superheroes fighting an alien invasion. It's superheroes fighting a war. It's just a completely different level than any of Marvels other movies, or any other superhero movie for that matter. Whether they like superheroes, saw the previous movies or not, it's irrelevant. It's a massive action extravaganza that's opening in May, it has 2 weeks basically free run at the box office... the movie will be a monster.

Also what i think is unique to movies like these, is the fanboys. Usually the comic book fans make up about 5% of a box office (if that). But with true event movies like this and your TDKs, they are the movies that the fanboys go and see 5, 6, 7, **** maybe even 10 times in the cinema. It all adds up. I remember on another forum i post on when TDK came out some guy went and saw it 27 times. 27 times?!!?!? Holy ****. Too much time and too much money. lol. But hey, you gotta do what you gotta do.

I completely agree with all of this.

That said, TDKR will still be king, imo. But both films will be juggernauts, and they're both looking pretty darn great if you ask me, so it doesn't really matter.

 

[The Morningstar]

Oh yea i think TDKR will be the highest grossing. But i don't think the gap will be as big as some think.

Like you said though, box office results don't really bother me. I mean, that money isn't going into my pocket right?

I mean, i'd prefer it if Avengers blows me away and is everything i hoped for, but only makes 600 million. Rather than being a piece of crap that is actually like TF in terms of quality, but makes 2 billion at the BO.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Exactly, I just shake my head everytime I see comments saying The Avengers has no chance at grossing between 800 million and 1 billion because of IM2's performance.

Iron Man 2 was a C+ film, but it still grossed in 600 million. That speaks volumes.

In my opinion, The Avengers is a sure lock to make at least 750-800 million at the box office even if the script falls short or the plot is thin or etc. I can't see this film making just 600-650 million.

 

[PowerPacked]

I'm just saying, the statistics are saying that Avengers could be even more massive than anyone can imagine, possibly bigger than TDK's gross, even.

I reiterate that I want this film to ****ing destroy Phantom Menace.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I'm just saying, the statistics are saying that Avengers could be even more massive than anyone can imagine, possibly bigger than TDK's gross, even.

I reiterate that I want this film to ****ing destroy Phantom Menace.

It might, but those social network stats don't mean anything to me and Parker Wayne simply because social networking stats (most of the time) have never been consistent and accurate with Box Office results. For instance, before Inception's final trailer was released, Inception's Official Facebook Page had under 21,000 likes. By following that logic, we can only assume that Inception should have then only made 300-350 million dollars at the Box Office.

Now, The Avengers could outgross TDKR. Anything is possible, but the odds are against it for two reasons:

1.) TDKR is the sequel following one of the most successful films in cinematic history (with China now being an open market for Batman).

2.) Christopher Nolan is a brand name while Joss Whedon is unknown to the GA. Nolan released two back-to-back pop-culture films and amassed a large fanbase in just three years.

 

[CConn]

Not everyone has a Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, or MTV account. What people seem to be banking on is only a fraction.

Over 150 million people had facebook accounts in 2009. That's half the US popular.

Might not be everyone, but it's a hell of a lot.

 

[El Payaso]

I'm just saying, the statistics are saying that Avengers could be even more massive than anyone can imagine, possibly bigger than TDK's gross, even.

Statistics: you have 2 TV sets, I have none = we both have 1 TV set.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Over 150 million people had facebook accounts in 2009. That's half the US popular.

Might not be everyone, but it's a hell of a lot.

That may be, but there are nearly 7 billion people on the planet today. Like I said, it's only a fraction. Not everyone on Facebook likes a page. Out of say a 150 million people on FB, only 50,000 'liked' The Avengers page. Furthermore, these stats are incredibly inaccurate because people or fans who 'liked' The Avengers page also, possibly, 'liked' TDKR page as well. Data tends to overlap in the CB genre.

 

[BigThor]

Over 150 million people had facebook accounts in 2009. That's half the US popular.

Might not be everyone, but it's a hell of a lot.

True

 

[PowerPacked]

Not everyone on Facebook likes a page. Out of say a 150 million people on FB, only 50,000 'liked' The Avengers page. .

Then your math must suck ass.

Facebook likes: 837,788

83788/50000 = 16.75576

16.75576 x 150,000,000 = 2,513,364,000

Two billion people.

There are 850 million people on Facebook as of December of last year.

So you're nowhere near close to being correct.