The Avengers vs The Dark Knight Rises - Part 1

[CConn]

That may be, but there are nearly 7 billion people on the planet today. Like I said, it's only a fraction. Not everyone on Facebook likes a page. Out of say a 150 million people on FB, only 50,000 'liked' The Avengers page. Furthermore, these stats are incredibly inaccurate because people or fans who 'liked' The Avengers page also, possibly, 'liked' TDKR page as well. Data tends to overlap in the CB genre.

But over 3 billion of those people either live in huts, jungles, or slave labor camps.

 

[CConn]

Then your math must suck ash.

Facebook likes: 837,788

83788/50000 = 16.75576

16.75576 x 150,000,000 = 2,513,364,000

Two billion people.

There are 850 million people on Facebook as of December of last year.

So you're nowhere near close to being correct.

Technically, he was just using my statistic from 2009.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I've never 'social networked' (with SHH being the exception) so yes, I used CConn's 'stats' as an example.

With over 800 million Facebook accounts since December 2011 (including the spam, promotional, abandoned or duplicate profiles) and over 7 billion people on the planet, how exactly is my 'math' inferior to yours? You didn't even register the variables.

Furthermore, out of the 800,000 likes that page alone has, what conclusive evidence can you provide that those 'stats' are indeed rock-solid? And will indeed transfer to Box Office numbers?

On top of that, with your very own logic, should I expect Twilight: BD PT.2 and The Hunger Games to outgross and eclipse both TDKR and The Avengers significantly based on the VH1 and MTV polls, and Facebook Likes? What 'math' can you provide to me that deflates this theory, but at the same time, still upholds yours with unwavering credibility?

I'll be awaiting your response Archimedes.

 

[PowerPacked]

What 'math' can you provide to me that deflates this theory, but at the same time, still upholds yours with unwavering credibility?

Your argument there revolves around me trying to disprove that Twilight and Hunger Games will make a ton of money.

Twilight making more than TDKR is not that big of a stretch. It has a rabid fanbase, the 'finale factor' (unless that only applies to TDKR?), and has no real competition. It's entirely possible.

Hunger Games is a fastly growing fanbase, ticket presales have broken records, and it looks very good.

I don't see your logic here. Not being everyone does not mean it's not valid. Hell, on the scale of the planet, less than a billion people go to see movies at the theater. Otherwise the highest box office gross would be about 8-10 billion.

When films do test screenings, or TV shows have pilots, they don't show them to every person in the world. Does that mean those are unimportant? Not at all.

So cut the sarcastic bull**** responses and act maturely. I pointed out your failure in math because you failed completely.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Your argument there revolves around me trying to disprove that Twilight and Hunger Games will make a ton of money.

Twilight making more than TDKR is not that big of a stretch. It has a rabid fanbase, the 'finale factor' (unless that only applies to TDKR?), and has no real competition. It's entirely possible.

Hunger Games is a fastly growing fanbase, ticket presales have broken records, and it looks very good.

I don't see your logic here. Not being everyone does not mean it's not valid. Hell, on the scale of the planet, less than a billion people go to see movies at the theater. Otherwise the highest box office gross would be about 8-10 billion.

When films do test screenings, or TV shows have pilots, they don't show them to every person in the world. Does that mean those are unimportant? Not at all.

So cut the sarcastic bull**** responses and act maturely. I pointed out your failure in math because you failed completely.

Oh yes, I was the one being immature.

No, my point strikes at your notion and ridiculous claim that Facebook Likes = Legitimate Box Office Numbers/Hype, even though you've yet to provide any real concrete evidence to disprove my 'math'.

By your incredibly flawed logic, The Women in Black should have made a killing at the Box Office, and Inception should have flopped. So how do you have the audacity to insult my 'math' when yours is completely based on ball-park speculation and nothing more.

Are you truly this dense?

 

[Evil Twin]

Yeah, there is no formula that says that "xx numbers of Facebook "likes" = yy dollars of box office receipts". It's a good indicator of interest and marketing obviously, but that's the extent of it.

FWIW, I'm expecting a 2.7 OW multiplier from The Avengers for the domestic box office. It's not a property that I can see sneaking up and surprising a lot of people, so I think it will be fairly frontloaded, but I do think that it's going to be well liked. Say $150 opening weekend and a total domestic run around $405 million.

 

[CConn]

405 might be a little high. Purely due to declining theater attendance. If the last Harry Potter movie could only make 380 (and Harry Potter has a very vast and diverse fan base), I'm not so sure if The Avengers can make more.

I'm more thinking like 350 for Avengers, and a little over 400 for Batman.

 

[The Morningstar]

People still arguing over Facebook "likes" and youtube views determine box office? All it says is that it's on a lot of peoples minds, doesn't mean they are actually going to go see it.

I think Avengers will make like 300-350 US. 450-500 internationally. TDKR 400-450 US. 450-500 internationally.

 

[CConn]

Agreed.

I don't think we're going to see a 500+ movie unless it has some real wow factor in it - like TDK had with the Joker and Avatar had with it's 3D.

And on that note, actually, I truly think we comic fans are over estimating the drawn assembling Iron Man, Captain America and Thor together has on the general public. I...really don't think they care. I really don't think anyone not into comics really understands or comprehends the significance of an ensamble superhero film. To them, I think it's more just a fun ride like Iron Man or Spider-Man were when they first came out. Ans there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

People still arguing over Facebook "likes" and youtube views determine box office?

Nope. Just PP "trying" to convince everyone that there is a correlation.

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea i don't think Avengers draw is really that much to do with the team up thing. I do think it plays some part though. I mean, you've got Iron Man falling from the sky, then the ****ing Hulk goes and grabs him? I think that shot in particular will make some people think it's pretty cool, whether they're comic fans or not.

I think it's main appeal will basically be what the trailer shows; Superheroes fighting an alien invasion. What I think the trailer really did well though was introduce the main characters separately. Some good character moments and some plot building.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I think it's main appeal will basically be what the trailer shows; Superheroes fighting an alien invasion. What I think the trailer really did well though was introduce the main characters separately. Some good character moments and some plot building.

That is definitely something that can push it past the niche audiences. Iron Man had fully done it by grounding it in reality and using the war on terrorism as a back drop, though only to an extent.

Thor and Captain America had done it successfully (though not to as big an extent as Batman or Iron Man) being just being well made movies.

What Avengers must do convince people "This isn't just your average Superhero movie" and must do it with more than "We have a bunch of characters together". The Alien Invasion Angle is something I'd push more with Marvel along with character moments, which in the right way can resonate with audiences.

 

[CConn]

I think, for the GA, only the Justice League really has a big draw as a team. And even then, I think it's more about name recognition than anyone really being a "fan" of the team.

I do think Hulk is a big draw for the GA, though. We kinda have to remember that this is how the GA views superheroes;

Hulk = The 70s TV Series
Justice League = The Super-Friends

Etc.

It's not like Cap or Thor have ever really had that big TV or cartoon vehicle to jettison their public awareness to the heights of some other characters. Granted, IM1 maybe money despite that, but, at the same time, IM1 was just a damn fun movie with a marketable star.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Well, Captain America was Captain America. He's a guy that audiences had been aware of even without the big tv series or anything like that. I would go as far as to say Captain America had that good opening weekend because its name recognition. Put Thor in that slot and it wouldn't had done as well, personally.

 

[The Morningstar]

Captain America is certainly known, but I'd say that's simply name recognition. Like people have probably heard the name "Captain America" but can't really tell you anything about him. Apart from maybe the shield.

 

[CConn]

Oh no, you're probably right.

At the same time, if Cap had ever had a really public show or movie before this, it probably would've done quite a bit better.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Captain America is certainly known, but I'd say that's simply name recognition. Like people have probably heard the name "Captain America" but can't really tell you anything about him. Apart from maybe the shield.

Yeah, that's what I mean. They probably know the name, and what he looks like, and that's it. It's a much more unique recognition than Batman, Superman, Spider-man because I don't think many people can tell you his name unlike the others.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

At the same time, if Cap had ever had a really public show or movie before this, it probably would've done quite a bit better.

Funny thing is that there was supposed to be a Captain America animated show in the 90s, but it never happened. I believe there is youtube footage on what the intro was supposed to be.

I found it!

[YT]Sd7VinvTfiw[/YT]

 

[The Morningstar]

haha looks pretty cool actually.

 

[PowerPacked]

It reminds me a lot of Silvestri's score.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

haha looks pretty cool actually.

It would have been awesome.

It reminds me a lot of Silvestri's score.

Heh, it does!

 

[Squaremaster316]

There is a Marvel team up that has a chance of making 500M+...

...but it could take a while.

 

[CConn]

Hah.

Seriously though, I would bet the GA would be more into seeing Spider-Man, Wolverine, and Hulk in a movie together than Cap, IM and Thor.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The new Fantastic Four? Well at least Sony is halfway there.

 

[akfj]

Seriously though, I would bet the GA would be more into seeing Spider-Man, Wolverine, and Hulk in a movie together than Cap, IM and Thor.

That goes for me, too.