Discussion in 'Misc. Comics Films' started by Thread Manager, Feb 22, 2012.
Sound like good predictions to me.
The battle of the comic book movies will end like this:
1. The Dark Knight Rises - $440 domestic, $1050 worldwide
2. The Avengers - $340 domestic, $850 worldwide
3. The Amazing Spider-Man - $270 domestic, $800 worldwide
I don't think The Dark Knight Rises is going to make it past the billion dollar mark.
The Dark Knight itself barely made it.
Dark Knight Rises will only build and expand on the success of the Dark Knight. It would be different if the Dark Knight was a commercial or critical failure. Just look at how the Dark Knight expanded on the success of Batman Begins ($167m to $469m foreign).
Dark Knight Rises doesn't have the free publicity of a dead teen hearthrob actor. Sorry, I don't see TDKR beating TDK's records.
Doesn't have the Joker either.
With Cabin In The Woods getting rave reviews a month before it's release, I guess it's hard to say that he's untested in writing films anymore.
I'm not expecting a billion but you'd be fooling yourself if you said TDKR isn't going to break a few of TDK records.
No celebrity died this time around but what people seem to be forgetting is that it doesn't matter. This is the sequel to TDK (the most successful CBM of all time) being helmed by Christopher Nolan.
That alone will guarantee a box-office monster.
Once they start promoting it and people realize it's being made, that argument will make more sense.
TDKR's marketing will likely kick it in gear around late-April or early-May according to our sources. Right now, it's still too early, especially for a July release.
Listen, The Avengers, they have a hulk. Nuff said lol
Yep and TDKR has the goddamn Batman.
My own predictions:
-Avengers: 800M+. Take Iron Man 2 gross as a benchmark. Factor in the additional audience gained from Thor and Captain America ( there is overlap, yes, but its not 100% ), 3D bump, and strong positioning. That should be enough to raise it to 800M, easy.
-Dark Knight Rises: 900M+. Dark Knight broke records, and the new movie has the hype from Dark Knight, Nolan's greater name value, and the growing international market. However, what it doesn't have is the Ledger Factor: its villain is not the iconic Joker, said villain is not being played by a teen heart throb, said heart throb is not providing an Oscar caliber performance, and said heart throb hasn't died before release giving tons of free publicity. All told, I think the positives won't fully outweigh the negatives, and TDKR will "only" make in the 900s.
-Amazing Spider-Man: 600M+. TASM is going to suffer the "Batman Begins" effect- popular character, rebooted years after a poor performance. The performance wasn't as bad as Batman & Robin, and the character has stronger appeal in the international market than Batman, so it'll do a lot better than Batman Begins. However, it won't make Raimi numbers.
Note that these are just estimates, I assume a certain amount of leeway ( give or take 50M ) on all of them. I can also see various ways they could go way high or way low. Obviously, a lousy movie will tank performance in any of the cases. As for going stronger than expected. . . okay, if the "Michael Bay" audience goes for the spectacle in Avengers big time, it could easily break 1B, given its positioning. If TDKR has another Oscar-worthy performance, it could easily break 1B. If all the Raimi Spider-fans come out in support of TASM, even it might be able to hit 1B. However, I can't see both TDKR and TASM breaking 1B. If one does, the other won't.
Avengers Yeahhh lol
Thank you for your brilliant and insightful rebuttal. I think we must all admit that reading it makes us better people.
Avengers: Has the coveted May 1st release date, which should lead it to opening over $150m. Its total will be $900m+.
TDKR: Sequel to the biggest SH film of all time, opens in the late July slot which has been money for WB films. OW will be in the $170m+ range and WW totals of over $1 Billion.
Looking at all the upcoming releases, especially during Summer makes me very glad I no longer work in the movie theater business.
Let me preface my two cents by saying I'm looking forward to both of these movies, solely because of the directors involved. (I think Whedon and Nolan should seriously do a movie together, someday...) That said...
Heath wasn't just a "teen heartthrob," he was a genuinely good actor. I can count half a dozen serious films (other than Brokeback and TDK) he has done. So your argument holds no water.
And TDK changed the face of superhero films. It's sufficiently open-ended to lead into TDKR, but it would've worked without a follow-up too.
And while it may not break the $500M mark like TDK did, TDKR will almost certainly reclaim its record-breaking opening day and opening weekend gross. Just on the pent-up demand and goodwill generated from its previous two films, TDKR will enjoy at least a $400M domestic cume.
The Avengers looks like a great time at the movies, but it's going to have to do some significant crossover appeal (the non-Marvel and non-comic-book movie fans) if it has a chance to giving TDKR a run for its money.
The Joker put TDK over a billion. TDKR will not do as well I think. It will still do VERY well though.
I actually think Avengers and TDKR will end up around the same mark. I think Avengers will do a little better than most think and TDKR will do a little worse and they will meet around the 800-900 mark.
The economy is picking up, people are feeling a little better. When the warm weather kicks in people will start hitting the theaters at a greater rate this summer than the last 2 imo.
These movies will both get big #'s. I also think TDKR will do a little better domestically and I think the Avengers will do a little better internationally.
So, Heath brought even more to TDK than I bothered to describe, and that *weakens* my argument?
Okay, to fill in the full version of my argument:
1. TDK had the Joker, the most iconic and recognizable Bat villain
2. Said villain was played by Heath Ledger, a teen heart throb
3. Said teen heart throb was also a really good actor who gave an Oscar caliber performance
4. Said teen heart throb died before release, giving the movie tons of free publicity
Those are all factors that TDKR doesn't have, as of yet. I stick with my guns: growing name recognition and international market won't outweigh the Ledger-related factors that elevated TDK's gross.
Oh great another guy who thinks TDK gross was only due to Ledger. Not to many of those.
Not *only* due to Heath Ledger. . . but anybody who argues the film would have done a billion without any of the above factors at play? Is fooling themselves.
If the only change was Ledger not dying? Probably chop 100M off the final gross.
The film scored a billion dollars on the back of it being a great movie. The Joker and Heath Ledger doesn't add an extra $600M to the box office of the previous film, the movie in and of itself adds that extra box office.
The movie is great and everything but Heath Ledger became a James Dean-like a instant legend right before the movie was released. Thinking that it had absolutely nothing to do is naive.
Thinking it added a significant box office increase in the order of hundreds of millions of dollars is absurd. Ledgers death at best draws in a small percentage of people with a morbid curiosity for a one time viewing, but the film in and of itself was great in spite of his death and probably would have made close to the same amount had he been alive anyway. If the film was average it wouldn't have made the money it did.