The Batman Box Office Super Early Predictions

Invader Joker

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I feel that with Joker hitting a billion we have more than enough information about the state of the Batman franchise, the superhero movie genre and so on to at least make some super early box office predictions.

There's enough precedent and information we have to at least get a verth early rough idea. Obviously this is super early as we haven't even seen Rob in the batsuit but I feel it'll be interesting to see how much our super early predictions change or not change over the course of production.

I won't make a poll because of how super early everything is.

My prediction is that provided the film is good, it'll make anywhere between 1 billion-1.3 billion dollars.

And anywhere between 1.2-1.5 billion if they move the release date to the noncompetitive fall of 2021.
 
How much did Dark Knight Rises make?(the most successful for the franchise right?)
 
1,085 billion but I feel that what Joker has pretty much confirmed loud and clear is that times have changed, the brand is more popular than ever so provided this film live up to its full potential, I feel it won't even be that hard for it to surpass that by a significant margin.

It's gonna have almost all of the audience that went to see Joker and on top of that it's gonna have even more because of what'll probably be a PG 13 rating and more spectacle. Heck, not to mention Pattinson's leftover nostalgic female audience from Twilight, I don't know how much of a difference that'll make but it'll be there.

If it's as good as it can possibly be, it really could be giant. Batman now is more popular than ever.
 
I'm not sure if Batman is more popular in mainstream than he was during Nolan's trilogy and the Arkham video games but I have faith in this film already and people may trust Matt Reeves because of his Planet of the Apes films than if Zack Snyder was back
 
Puh, very hard to say...you have a very strong cast and alone that it is a batman movie will get a lot of people in the seats.
I wouldnt really use Joker as a line however since this movie got a lot of people into the theaters that arent comic book fans or are tired of the comic book genre.
That gave the movie despite its rating and all a broader audience.
But then you have Batman which wont be R rated that can get a more family oriented audience too...i dont know.

I could see it easily suprass Joker if the first impression and all is hitting the right notes.
But we will see, at the moment i have no idea since i have no clear picture of the movie yet.
 
Gonna say $700-$750 mil. I think people expecting north of a billion dollars may want to throw some water on that fire. At least until we get a better sense of what this movie actually is.
 
Gonna say $700-$750 mil. I think people expecting north of a billion dollars may want to throw some water on that fire. At least until we get a better sense of what this movie actually is.
That's pretty low considering Joker's numbers. If it did just that I could easily see WB being extremely disappointed, whcih they should be, the floor for this film should be whatever Joker made.
The only way I can see it hitting only 700-750 million is if the film is terrible.
 
It actually wouldn't shock me if The Batman had a lower gross than Joker simply because regardless of quality there is considerably less novelty to another Batman movie compared to Joker. If it makes under a billion I would be a little worried about WB panicking and screwing with Reeves future plans though, since anything beneath a billion for a major tentpole is increasingly considered slightly disappointing.
 
It actually wouldn't shock me if The Batman had a lower gross than Joker simply because regardless of quality there is considerably less novelty to another Batman movie compared to Joker. If it makes under a billion I would be a little worried about WB panicking and screwing with Reeves future plans though, since anything beneath a billion for a major tentpole is increasingly considered slightly disappointing.
I think they'd be right to panic.

If an R rated, no action, no China, slow paced, low budget violent and gritty Joker film that for most of its runtime focuses only on a mentally ill guy before he becomes the Joker, managed to get to a billion, a PG 13 Batman film with more spectacle and a bigger budget and a more recognizable lead and that features Batman allthroughout has absolutely no excuse whatsoever to not only hit a billion, but make more than Joker and I'd go as far as to say considerably more.

The aren't any excuses. If Joker made a billion, Batman should make the same money Joker made and then some, if not, they did something wrong.
 
I think they'd be right to panic.

If an R rated, no action, no China, slow paced, low budget violent and gritty Joker film that for most of its runtime focuses only on a mentally ill guy before he becomes the Joker, managed to get to a billion, a PG 13 Batman film with more spectacle and a bigger budget and a more recognizable lead and that features Batman allthroughout has absolutely no excuse whatsoever to not only hit a billion, but make more than Joker and I'd go as far as to say considerably more.

The aren't any excuses. If Joker made a billion, Batman should make the same money Joker made and then some, if not, they did something wrong.
Box office anomalies should never be used as benchmarks. I'd doubt even a Joker sequel could reach those same heights.

These films which touch the culture on a massive level don't come out often. Their successes are rare for a reason, you can't make a formula out of them.

Reboots have never grossed a billion out the gate anyway, so Batman not doing it isn't a big surprise. Anything north of 800 would be a fantastic start.

It's more important the acclaim and audience response is there. Batman Begins performed modestly at the box office, but its reputation carried it into a franchise and blossomed from there.
 
I think they'd be right to panic.

If an R rated, no action, no China, slow paced, low budget violent and gritty Joker film that for most of its runtime focuses only on a mentally ill guy before he becomes the Joker, managed to get to a billion, a PG 13 Batman film with more spectacle and a bigger budget and a more recognizable lead and that features Batman allthroughout has absolutely no excuse whatsoever to not only hit a billion, but make more than Joker and I'd go as far as to say considerably more.

The aren't any excuses. If Joker made a billion, Batman should make the same money Joker made and then some, if not, they did something wrong.
Joker was also a massively hyped cultural zeitgeist film. It owes its crazy success to a number of hard to quantify, lighting strike factors. I don't totally disagree, but Joker was a unique event beyond just being a really good Joker movie.

If the film is critically acclaimed, does well, but doesn't hit a billion and the studio panics that says more about WB's lack of confidence than the film.
 
Box office anomalies should never be used as benchmarks. I'd doubt even a Joker sequel could reach those same heights.

These films which touch the culture on a massive level don't come out often. Their successes are rare for a reason, you can't make a formula out of them.

Reboots have never grossed a billion out the gate anyway, so Batman not doing it isn't a big surprise. Anything north of 800 would be a fantastic start.

It's more important the acclaim and audience response is there. Batman Begins performed modestly at the box office, but its reputation carried it into a franchise and blossomed from there.
I see Joker as both an anomaly and a testament to how popular the Batman franchise really is. I'm just saying I wouldn't blame WB whatsoever if they were disappointed if Batman doesn't gross the same amount as Joker. It should. And any reason as to why it shouldn't sounds like an excuse to me.
 
I see Joker as both an anomaly and a testament to how popular the Batman franchise really is. I'm just saying I wouldn't blame WB whatsoever if they were disappointed if Batman doesn't gross the same amount as Joker. It should. And any reason as to why it shouldn't sounds like an excuse to me.
It's only an excuse if you can't accept Joker's success is largely in part an anomaly.

This isn't like Avengers Infinity War where its gargantuan success was sort of predicted as it kept building to that success. When it came time for Endgame, most people would have placed it around the same baseline, because the bar has been raised for that franchise and it was ostensibly a Part 2.

Joker had no predecessor, and wasn't set up for a series. So there is no precedent. WB are not going to adjust their expectations for a tangentially related IP. They'll be following the trend for reboots and Batman in general.
 
It's only an excuse if you can't accept Joker's success is largely in part an anomaly.

This isn't like Avengers Infinity War where its gargantuan success was sort of predicted as it kept building to that success. When it came time for Endgame, most people would have placed it around the same baseline, because the bar has been raised for that franchise and it was ostensibly a Part 2.

Joker had no predecessor, and wasn't set up for a series. So there is no precedent. WB are not going to adjust their expectations for a tangentially related IP. They'll be following the trend for reboots and Batman in general.
"Tangentially related"?
It's Joker. It's set in Gotham City. It features the Waynes. It's basically the same IP because of how hand in hand the two characters go. You know Joker; you know Batman.

It's the same franchise. And Batman should absolutely do those numbers. Heck, the majority of audiences will probably think Batman is in the same universe as Joker even if it's not and doesn't feature the character. Batman will even benefit from Joker's success because of how hand in hand the two characters are. The two IPs are so connected I could see a large percentage of audience members going "Oh, another Batman? Well they did a great job with Joker so let's see how Batman is"

Especially since I doubt The Batman will be super conventional; the Apes films weren't conventional at all and Batman is also taking inspiration from Taxi Driver so it'll probably at least have a unique vibe compared to other blockbusters. That should only attract more interest.
 
It will make 420 billion dollars and 69 cents.
 
I think they'd be right to panic.

If an R rated, no action, no China, slow paced, low budget violent and gritty Joker film that for most of its runtime focuses only on a mentally ill guy before he becomes the Joker, managed to get to a billion, a PG 13 Batman film with more spectacle and a bigger budget and a more recognizable lead and that features Batman allthroughout has absolutely no excuse whatsoever to not only hit a billion, but make more than Joker and I'd go as far as to say considerably more.

The aren't any excuses. If Joker made a billion, Batman should make the same money Joker made and then some, if not, they did something wrong.
1) Right out the gate, we don't know how good this movie is going to be. There is always the off-chance that Reeves delivers a dud, no matter how badly we don't want to humor that possibility.
2) Batman as a character has not featured in a movie that made over a billion dollars since 2012 (TDKR). By the time this movie releases, it will have been nine years. The last exposure audiences had to this character came in the form of two duds (BvS and JL), and one film that over-performed despite the character's minimal involvement (SS). While I wouldn't go as far as to say that JL left this character in the same position he was in post B&R, the simple point of fact is audiences may have to re-buy into what WB and Reeves are selling. The last outing they had with the character was not well-received. That certainly puts this movie in a similar boat to Batman Begins.
3) It's like Jekecy said, trying to quantify a "lightning in a bottle" phenomenon like Joker is a wasted exercise. There could be any number of reasons why that movie clicked the way it did. Perhaps the controversy stirred up curiosity. Perhaps the message of the movie resonated with people (an outsider standing up against the institution). Perhaps people just REALLY love the Joker character. Unless I am mistaken, Joker has performed better overseas than any Batman film ever did. Why do you figure that is?

In any case, it's downright silly to look at Joker's over-performance (and let's be clear, it was), and think that that's a reasonable measuring stick for The Batman. It is by all accounts a freak occurrence that literally nobody could have predicted.
 
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1) Right out the gate, we don't know how good this movie is going to be. There is always the off-chance that Reeves delivers a dud, no matter how badly we don't want to humor that possibility.
2) Batman as a character has not featured in a movie that made over a billion dollars since 2012 (TDKR). By the time this movie releases, it will have been nine years. The last exposure audiences had to this character came in the form of two duds (BvS and JL), and one film that over-performed despite the character's minimal involvement. While I wouldn't go as far as to say that JL left this character in the same position he was in post B&R, the simple point of fact is audiences may have to re-buy into what WB and Reeves are selling.
3) It's like Jekecy said, trying to quantify a "lightning in a bottle" phenomenon like Joker is a wasted exercise. There could be any number of reasons why that movie clicked the way it did. Perhaps the controversy stirred up curiosity. Perhaps the message of the movie resonated with people (an outsider standing up against the institution). Perhaps people just REALLY love the Joker character. Unless I am mistaken, Joker has performed better overseas than any Batman film ever did. Why do you figure that is?

In any case, it's downright silly to look at Joker's over-performance (and let's be clear, it was), and think that that's a reasonable measuring stick for The Batman. It is by all accounts a freak occurrence that literally nobody could have predicted.
That's why I said "should", as in, the only reason as to why this film wouldn't reach those heights is if the film is disappointing in some way or another. Saying it "should" is different from saying it "will."

Also, you could say the exact same thing about Joker that you said about Batman. The last Joker on live action before Phoenix was Leto in a critically panned performance, yet that didn't have any impact whatsoever. I'd expect the same thing with Batman.

And I do think is a reasonable measuring stick because case in point, Joker had everything going against it for it to make a billion dollars, while Batman will have a lot more advatages. It'd be embarrassing if this Batman film, with its PG 13 rating, more spectacle, bigger budget and more recognizable stars makes less than that Joker film. The only scenario I see that happening is if someone somewhere, be it Reeves, Pattinson or the marketing department or WB, screws things up
 
That's why I said "should", as in, the only reason as to why this film wouldn't reach those heights is if the film is disappointing in some way or another. Saying it "should" is different from saying it "will."

Also, you could say the exact same thing about Joker that you said about Batman. The last Joker on live action before Phoenix was Leto in a critically panned performance, yet that didn't have any impact whatsoever. I'd expect the same thing with Batman.

And I do think is a reasonable measuring stick because case in point, Joker had everything going against it for it to make a billion dollars, while Batman will have a lot more advatages. It'd be embarrassing if this Batman film, with its PG 13 rating, more spectacle, bigger budget and more recognizable stars makes less than that Joker film. The only scenario I see that happening is if someone somewhere, be it Reeves, Pattinson or the marketing department or WB, screws things up
See, you're throwing around words like "should" and "expect." It's these sort of buzz words that set studio executives up for unwarranted disappointment. You're setting an arbitrary goal that frankly doesn't NEED to be met in order to quantify success.

Anything north of $700 million is perfectly respectable considering the circumstances, and should be enough to get a sequel green-lit - which is the only thing we as fans should really care about.
 
See, you're throwing around words like "should" and "expect." It's these sort of buzz words that set studio executives up for unwarranted disappointment.

Anything north of $700 million is perfectly respectable considering the circumstances, and should be enough to get a sequel green-lit - which is the only thing we as fans should really care about.

Well, yeah. They're investing money, of course they're gonna have expectations.


I'm 99% sure that if this film really makes 300 million less than Joker, that'll be enough for WB to either pull the plug on this potential series or take creative control away from Matt Reeves. I'm also sure the only circumstance it'd make 700-800 million is if the film sucks.

Again, this film cannot make less money than Joker. It'd be ridiculously embarrassing if that was the case.
 
Well, yeah. They're investing money, of course they're gonna have expectations.


I'm 99% sure that if this film really makes 300 million less than Joker, that'll be enough for WB to either pull the plug on this potential series or take creative control away from Matt Reeves. I'm also sure the only circumstance it'd make 700-800 million is if the film sucks.

Again, this film cannot make less money than Joker. It'd be ridiculously embarrassing if that was the case.
If you say so.
 
Casting news have gotten positive reactions, word of mouth is good in general. I'd aim to at least 1.2 b.
 
If the film sucks:
650-800 million.
If the film is mediocre:
Maybe 800 million to 900 million.
If the film is good/if it's great but they keep it on that overcrowded summer:
1 billion - 1.2 bllion.
If the film is GREAT and they move it to the noncompetitive fall away from Spider-Man and other movies that'll suck out a bit of the potential revenue of this film:
1.2 billion-1.5 billion

In general, based on the information we have currently, I'll say it probably lands anywhere between 1.1 and 1.2.
 
1.2 or 1.5 billion is bananas. It's unlikely The Batman is going to be as loud, flashy and action-oriented as, say, Aquaman which dramatically lowers the money it would make in China and other overseas markets.

WB probably agrees with Invader which is a colossal disaster just waiting to happen, though. If the film does Wonder Woman numbers that should be setting them up for an even bigger sequel.
 

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