The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

Now top 20 domestic with a couple of days to go before what is looking like a monster 3rd weekend. Could easily be in the top 10 by the end of the 3rd weekend and not far off $500m!

 

[MaddScience]

next it beats Amazing Spider-Man tomorrow, then it passes up Deadpool by Friday night, then all said either Monday or Tuesday morning it will surpass Wonder Woman's entire theatrical run too.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

lol wait people also tried to spin WW's box office numbers into being a failure? how?

WW had an almost exact 50/50 domestic/OS split so there was some talk about whether it underperformed OS, but while you can point to a few weak markets it was mostly a case of it breaking out domestically. BP appears to be in the same boat. It’s doing just fine OS, while having a run for the ages domestically. Just goes to show what can happen when you give a traditionally underserved audience their due.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The person who used the word "failed" has obvious comprehension problems. Either that or prefers debating a straw man to an actual person.

You're the one trying to say it's foreign box office gross is not great. Unless under performed suddenly means something else.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Just because BP will make the top 5 biggest domestic grosses in history doesn't mean it underperformed overseas.

It overperformed overseas and had a legendary performance in North America.

Maybe you guys could spin BP's run if it made "only" 750 m worldwide.

It's heading for 1.3 billion.

Give up already.

 

[JKKS085]

I usually like when people take time to put bo numbers into perspective and try to shed some light onto lesser known aspects of what makes a great box office run.
I do believe that most people (and that sometimes includes seasonned writers and commentators) tend to put a little too much emphasis on raw numbers when, at times, additionnal data could actually bring out some nuance and help them refine their analysis (with the franchise killer Amazing Spider-Man movies being a prime example of people failing to see the forest for the trees).

But seriously though @dataSlave that’s a joke right ? One that you are really commited to but a joke nonetheless right ? Right ... ?

 

[Mjölnir]

You can by no means say that BP is doing less than good overseas.

It's clear that BP, like WW, has hit the US in a special way culturally though, and therefor has a massive increase there. Where normal superhero films do about a third in North America BP and WW are above 50%. I'm sure it's doing very well in Africa as well, but that will account for much less money for natural reasons.

This is to me pretty much the only way BO becomes interesting, to see how films do in different nations/cultures. How much money we throw at filthy rich companies isn't that interesting to me.

 

[coreymb16]

What's the finally UK tally? I say 70 million.

I would say it’s looking more like $58M-$65M which is terrific for a MCU film.

 

[RafaelHerschel]

Comparable MCU films have grossed $750-950 million overseas. BP seems unlikely to approach that range. In dollar terms that is under performance. It's even more striking when comparing international relative to domestic.

BP seems likely to gross in the $550 million range overseas. That comps to Ragnarok, Spiderman: Homecoming or F&F 6.

Actually…

Iron Man 266,762,121 foreign box office

Ant Man 339,109,802 foreign box office

Thor 268,295,994 foreign box office

Doctor Strange 445,076,475 foreign box office

Spider-Man Homecoming 545,965,784 foreign box office

The Amazing Spider-Man 495,900,000 foreign box office

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice: 543,274,725 foreign box office

Guardians of the Galaxy: 440,152,029 foreign box office

Captain America: The First Avenger 193,915,269 foreign box office

Black Panther is going to have a higher foreign box office than all of these movies.

And these are comparable movies.

 

[Iceman]

I hope the BP sequels can make big money too. Maybe not quite as much as this but big bucks nonetheless.

 

[Donald Thomas]

I hope the BP sequels can make big money too. Maybe not quite as much as this but big bucks nonetheless.

Aloha,
Historically, in the MCU the sequels do better than the first movie. which in Black Panthers case is mind blowing. Very smart to put BP and Wakanda in the trailers for Infinity War. I think phase four will have BP as one of the leaders of the Avengers. He was in New Avenger v.3. This would make sense as it ups whatever Tony Stark brought to the table regarding technology.

Long Live the King of Wakanda

 

[Spider-Fan]

Actually…

Iron Man 266,762,121 foreign box office

Ant Man 339,109,802 foreign box office

Thor 268,295,994 foreign box office

Doctor Strange 445,076,475 foreign box office

Spider-Man Homecoming 545,965,784 foreign box office

The Amazing Spider-Man 495,900,000 foreign box office

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice: 543,274,725 foreign box office

Guardians of the Galaxy: 440,152,029 foreign box office

Captain America: The First Avenger 193,915,269 foreign box office

Black Panther is going to have a higher foreign box office than all of these movies.

And these are comparable movies.

I wouldn't even bother, dude. He clearly has no idea what he is talking about.

 

[Iceman]

Aloha,
Historically, in the MCU the sequels do better than the first movie. which in Black Panthers case is mind blowing. Very smart to put BP and Wakanda in the trailers for Infinity War. I think phase four will have BP as one of the leaders of the Avengers. He was in New Avenger v.3. This would make sense as it ups whatever Tony Stark brought to the table regarding technology.

Long Live the King of Wakanda

BP will surely be a leading light in the MCU after Avengers 4 and Wakanda will surely continue to play an important role. I would like the tech development to continue and build on Stark's work bringing in both T'Challa and Shuri (and maybe later Reed Richards ) on that front.

 

[Iceman]

Oh I hadn't really considered this before but BP has a chance of beating out Avatar to 2nd best 3rd weekend. Needs to beat $68,490,688 to do that. 3rd best looks pretty safe (needs to beat Avengers at $55,644,102).

 

[RafaelHerschel]

I wouldn't even bother, dude. He clearly has no idea what he is talking about.

Alright, I won't bother. Just one unrelated remark: Spider-Man 3 was awesome.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Alright, I won't bother. Just one unrelated remark: Spider-Man 3 was awesome.

On an unrelated note, I make no apologies for liking it as well, LOL!

 

[Gladius Nova]

You can by no means say that BP is doing less than good overseas.

It's clear that BP, like WW, has hit the US in a special way culturally though, and therefor has a massive increase there. Where normal superhero films do about a third in North America BP and WW are above 50%. I'm sure it's doing very well in Africa as well, but that will account for much less money for natural reasons.

This is to me pretty much the only way BO becomes interesting, to see how films do in different nations/cultures. How much money we throw at filthy rich companies isn't that interesting to me.

This^

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

Make the sequel better? Plenty of room for improvement! The fight scenes being the biggest of them all. With films like the raid out here BP shouldn't be slacking in this department.

Plenty?? I think the CGI is the film's biggest and only real flaw. The fight scenes could be improved but they are far from being the worst in a CBM.

Aloha,
Historically, in the MCU the sequels do better than the first movie. which in Black Panthers case is mind blowing. Very smart to put BP and Wakanda in the trailers for Infinity War. I think phase four will have BP as one of the leaders of the Avengers. He was in New Avenger v.3. This would make sense as it ups whatever Tony Stark brought to the table regarding technology.

Long Live the King of Wakanda

At this point, I wouldn't bet against Marvel or BP but this movie is setting such a high bar, that it will be difficult for the sequels to top it. We thought WW was a unique case but this movie is even more so and thus, not really comparable to any other Marvel movie. I'm looking forward to BP being front and center though. IMO, he is currently the most compelling, likable hero in the MCU, so he deserves a top spot.

 

[chamber-music]

Black Panther has already earned more at the Box office in the UK than Guardians Of The Galaxy and X-Men: Days Of Future Past. It will surpass Spider-man: Homecoming soon.

 

[Iceman]

It’s going past big names even before its 3rd U.S. weekend.

 

[pxrple]

WW had an almost exact 50/50 domestic/OS split so there was some talk about whether it underperformed OS, but while you can point to a few weak markets it was mostly a case of it breaking out domestically. BP appears to be in the same boat. It’s doing just fine OS, while having a run for the ages domestically. Just goes to show what can happen when you give a traditionally underserved audience their due.

lol wow, shows how people love moving the goal post whenever something they thought would fail doesn't. not sure why BP or WW on their first outing should be making Iron Man 3 money overseas. anyway it's only on forums like these that you find those sort of discussions, everywhere else BP and WW are being praised for their box office success

 

[BaronZemo]

I'm sorry but BP is doing FAR BETTER THAN JUST FINE OS. To put things into perspective Homecoming and Ragnarok did 545 and 540 OS respectively. BP is poised to make 550-600 is China previwes tend to prove true and it does well there which it seems like it will.

600 OS for the FIRST EVER solo without other Avengers in the film FOR A B-LIST HERO is more than "just fine". Ragnarok was Thor's third movie and HC the SIXTH spider-man movie. BP will outgross them OS with a predominantly black cast IN HIS FIRST MOVIE.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

So what are we guessing the Wednesday number will be? 7 or 8ish?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So what are we guessing the Wednesday number will be? 7 or 8ish?

I'm thinking between (7.7 - 7.85) million with an outside chance at 8 million. The drop today (Tue. to Wed.) should be less than or at least very close to 25%.

 

[iEquinox]

Don't see why it would almost stay flat from Monday. I'm expecting about $7M, just over 30% drop from Tuesday

Most comparable movies (Avengers, Deadpool) also had a slighty bigger Tuesday-Wednesday drop in their 2nd week than in their first as well, so it would make sense if Black Panther followed suit.