The box office "bar of success" for Batman/ Superman.

Discussion in 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' started by KangConquers, Dec 12, 2013.

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What is the bar of success for Superman/ Batman at the WW box office?

  1. $600- 699 M (The level at which a $200 M film profits)

  2. $700-799 M

  3. $800-899 M

  4. $900-999 M

  5. Over $1 Billion

  6. Bigger Than The Dark Knight Rises (Highest grossing DC film)

  7. Bigger Than The Avengers (Biggest Superhero movie ever)

  8. Bigger Than Titanic (#2 film ever)

  9. Bigger Than Avatar (#1 film ever)

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  1. Marvin

    Marvin Well-Known Member

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    Because this is a MOS sequel and/or a Batman reboot?

    Surely you can see the difference between a high profile sequel and a high profile cross over(very rare) event. For example, as modest as Spidey and Wolverine box office are these days. If next year saw a crossover between the two...it wouldn't yield an 'average of such and such/such and such sequel'. It would be a high profile crossover between two of the biggest characters in comics/cinema today. In short, I don't think you are looking at it right.
    If the Xmen showed up in the Hobbit...cross over event.

    That being said there is no accounting for a wolverine reboot in that scenario, and this is def a new batman. All I can say is Bale did little to own his role as Jackman has(unlike bat's there has only ever been Hugh). Moreover Ben seems like a more bankable box office persona than Bale imo.
     
    #101
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2013
  2. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Yes, because AQUAMAN is what's going to make this an Avengers slayer... :doh:
     
    #102
  3. charl_huntress

    charl_huntress Well-Known Member

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    I guess I don't follow movie news enough, but I have never thought of Affleck as a bankable star. I'm not sure I'm understanding the meaning of that since for me he doesn't seem to have the same sort of star power as say...Brad Pitt.
     
    #103
  4. Marvin

    Marvin Well-Known Member

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    Whatever you think of Ben as a leading man and how popular he is or isn't. I'm talking relative to Bale. The indie guy with no films outside batman I can think of being all that big.
     
    #104
  5. charl_huntress

    charl_huntress Well-Known Member

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    I guess I see what you mean.
     
    #105
  6. FeedOnATreeFrog

    FeedOnATreeFrog (A Metal Gear reference)

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    This movie definitely has more buzz/awareness (be it good or bad) 2 years prior to release than TDK had.

    Whether it generates buzz closer to release (due to positive WOM or trailers, ala Ledger's Joker performance) is a different matter.
     
    #106
  7. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Movies have broken $1 Billion on the past achievements of a franchise...look at the first Hobbit.
     
    #107
  8. NoLaNitE007

    NoLaNitE007 Do u Bleed? Do ya Punk?

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    Many....many people thought MOS would make 1 billion WW....easily nonetheless...for a reboot??

    Many...many....MANY people seem to have been smoking something bad. :doh:
     
    #108
  9. Juha Bach

    Juha Bach Well-Known Member

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    Its snyder's trailers. Buzz and hype will be at a level it needs to be if not higher.
     
    #109
  10. dnno1

    dnno1 Well-Known Member

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    A rule of thumb is that a film should make about 1.83 times more than it cost to develop and produce. If they were expecting the film to make $500 million or more, then they must have sunk more than $270 million into its development and production. "Superman/Batman" will have the same rule applying to it. Even if it doesn't make $1 billion, it will have to make 1.83 times more than it cost to produce it to get another film.
     
    #110
  11. Elayis

    Elayis Well-Known Member

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    Not necessarily. With any product that has expectations attached to it, there will always be a desire for a high box office gross. So if it doesn't meet the figure they're wanting, they may just go back to a regular MOS sequel, or go back to Batman solos.

    This film, like MOS, is a tent-pole film intended to be a backbone of Warner's future line-up. I imagine that if it doesn't make at least $800 million, that plans for a Justice League film could change.

    I know this isn't a completely apt comparison, but look at Jack Reacher. Even with it being a Tom Cruise, receiving generally good reviews and only costing $60 million, Paramount was very reticent about greenlighting a sequel, and didn't do it until it made over $200 mil, which is over 3x its cost.

    A studio always has expectations, and if they aren't met, even if it's brand name, a sequel is by no means guaranteed.
     
    #111
  12. slumcat

    slumcat Well-Known Member

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    What I have heard most money guys say is that a film should make double of the total of its production and marketing budget to break even.

    So according to that, MOS with a production budget of 225 million and marketing budget of 150 million dollars would basically need to make 750 million WW to break even. This is theatrically. Films of course break even and turn in a profit on home rentals and broadcast deals too.

    The reason for above is because when you hear 200 million dollar opening weekend, only about 50% of it is going to the studio. Less in foreign countries.
     
    #112
  13. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark Armored Avenger!

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    He's not. He's a good actor, and an even better director, but he's not a box office draw. His biggest films to date are Armageddon where he was a secondary character and Pearl Harbor.

    However Affleck is definitely the biggest draw of this film for better or worse.
     
    #113
  14. Black Narcissus

    Black Narcissus Pimp a Butterfly

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    2015 will be stacked!
     
    #114
  15. Wise

    Wise Watchtower Janitor

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    Also let's not forget what will be the biggest hit of the summer.

    [​IMG]
     
    #115
  16. dnno1

    dnno1 Well-Known Member

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    Mark my word, that will be the case. If "Superman/Batman" costs the same as Man of Steel did (around $225 million) then they would only need to make more than $411 million to get a sequel (not $1 billion) even though fans will be comparing it to Marvel's "Avengers" or "The Dark Knight" as far as box-office. With that being said, I do not expect that this will will be produced for anything less than $350 million, so the bar will be higher (more like $650 million or more).
     
    #116
  17. charl_huntress

    charl_huntress Well-Known Member

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    :wow: I guess you got to big for the sequel, right? Wow...that's a lot of money.
     
    #117
  18. metaphysician

    metaphysician Not a Side-Kick

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    Honestly, its best to ignore the marketing budget when guestimating profitability. There is too much funny money accounting in the marketing budget, such that the actual number of real dollars is greatly exaggerated. Whereas production budget is production budget, since you actually do have to pay salaries and supply costs and such.
     
    #118
  19. NoLaNitE007

    NoLaNitE007 Do u Bleed? Do ya Punk?

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    I hear what you are saying. Marketing is marketing and like you said it would seem funny money is accounted for when it comes to that aspect. Perhaps it should not be accounted for when it comes to calculating profitability of a film. The production budget is where the end profit margin should be equated to. That is why maintaining production budget discipline is so important when it comes to these tentpole franchise films. Especially the ones that are not established franchises. See John Carter and The Lone Ranger etc...
     
    #119
  20. Pickleweasel

    Pickleweasel Well-Known Member

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    Well you can bet that the trailers are going to be nuts, and this movie already has damn near everyone's attention. So far I am pretty sure there is nothing the weekend after and I don't think a studio is going to throw something in that slot either.

    I don't think Terminator is going to do numbers, could be wrong but I don't think it will be big competition in its 3rd week. Minions has already been pushed back once, maybe they change it again, if not I can see that taking some away but not too much.

    MOS had to go against The Purge (kinda had a lot of buzz) This is the End, WWZ, Monsters U, The Heat, White House Down, Despicable me 2, and The Lone Ranger in its first 3 weeks.

    As of now it looks like this will have Minions (I expect that to make 700 mil), then 2 weeks by itself, then Antman (450mil), Assassins Creed and Bourne (I dont think Assassins Creed and Bourne are going to be big) and Smurfs 3 (350mil).

    That doesn't look too bad to me even in a packed year. So I could see it getting that billion mark especially with even slightly better critic reviews. But I think for it to be a "success" just 800 Mil, anything more than that is gravy. WB might be able to make their money back from simply selling merchandise for this movie leading up to it.
     
    #120
  21. charl_huntress

    charl_huntress Well-Known Member

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    Then I hope he does his job correctly...
     
    #121
  22. TheNextNolan22

    TheNextNolan22 Hurting Really REALLY BAD

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    WB marketed the **** out of MOS and they'll no doubt up the ante with this next film. However, it's way too early to say. If I had to put a say in it:
    $990 Million if it sucks
    $1.1-1.2 Billion if it gets a MOS like or slightly better critical reception
    $1.5 Billion if it gets very positive reviews/critical acclaim.

    Again, just speculation on my part.
     
    #122
  23. dnno1

    dnno1 Well-Known Member

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    $350 million is actually a lot for a production budget, but since Batman is in this picture, I believe they could easily get away with spending that much and still making a profit.
     
    #123
  24. Llama_Shepherd

    Llama_Shepherd Well-Known Member

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    That's not true. Opening weekend is when the % of the gross is most heavily weighted towards the studio, and the scale slides each week towards the cinemas, so it could go like:

    OW: 90% studio
    2nd W: 80%
    3rd W: 70%
    4th W: 55%

    and so on, and so forth. Some films actually open with 100% of the gross to the studio. A famous example is Star Wars- Episode II: Attack of the Clones. But on average, the total gross is only usually just over half to the studio.
     
    #124
  25. charl_huntress

    charl_huntress Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm....it will be interesting to find what the budget actually is. That seems high to me. If they made Avatar for less than that then I would expect WB to put the kibosh down anything too extravagant.
     
    #125

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