Homecoming The Box Office Thread - Part 1

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I wouldn't use those Forbes articles as a source for box office projections, $800M+ should be a done deal. They've proven on multiple occasions that they don't really know what they're doing.

I mean, they're the ones who wrote this nonsense. At the time it was pretty much guaranteed that it was passing $300M:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ce-is-bad-news-for-a-third-hulk/#1b12e54f320a

Agreed. I've seen them write stuff before that made no box office sense. Things that were practically impossible to not happen.
 
Yikes. Cross Forbes off my list. Certainly Mendelson.
 
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Homecoming about to pass IM's domestic box office.
 
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Yikes. Cross Forbes off my list. Certainly Mendelson.
What they write usually makes sense and they do have interesting things to say most of the time. When they get their facts right they usually give interesting information.
They're not all bad.

Their box office projections do lack in-depth analysis though. They usually pick movies from the same genre and just go from there, usually without saying much about which comparison is actually the most accurate one(and sometimes including some very bad comparisons). Now under completely standard circumstances that would usually give a general idea of where a movie is headed, but overlooking details can make some of those comparisons very bad.

For example, the way Scott compared Homecoming's trajectory to TASM2 and SM3. He just saw the 2nd weekend drop, which was similar to TASM2 and SM3, and drew the conclusion that this makes them a good comparison, and that Homecoming would have roughly the same multiplier as those movies.
What he missed was that, unlike TASM2 and SM3, Homecoming was released with pretty much schools out on summer break, which meant that Homecoming pulled a huge lead over TASM2 and SM3 in the legs department because it made much more on the weekdays. This made his projections completely inaccurate.

So, it's the lack of in-depth analysis that causes mistakes like this.
Scott seems to know what he's talking about most of the time, but I guess he's just too hasty...
I read his stuff from time to time just to see what he brings up, and he does give interesting factoids from time to time.

Like I said, he's not all bad. It's just that his projections lack attention to detail. But at times, those details can make a world of difference.
 
Let's be fair, that second weekend drop was not good, and it was the highest second weekend drop for any MCU movie, and also for any Spider-Man movie.
 
And, like most of us said at the time, that was to be expected.

And then, as I expected, it held in there. And my expectations were modest considering I voted for 700-800m WW.
 
Let's be fair, that second weekend drop was not good, and it was the highest second weekend drop for any MCU movie, and also for any Spider-Man movie.
Homecoming's weekday numbers meant it was pretty much guaranteed to get $300M+ after the 2nd weekend was over. So let's be fair, that second weekend drop being bigger than than any MCU or Spider-Man movie didn't really mean anything. It didn't mean it would have the worst legs of any MCU or Spider-Man movie, which is what people were implying with that little factoid. It just makes for a nice clickbait title.

Comparing the 2nd weekend drop with TASM2 and SM3 is comparing apples and oranges. It doesn't actually tell us anything, except maybe that the person making the comparison probably doesn't know much about how the box office works.
 
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The movie has already done about 57m more USA then Amazing Spider-Man 2 and is only around 88m behind amazing Spider-Man 2 OS right now and that is with out china. Even if the movie only does like 85m in china that would mean it would only need about 4m OS ever were else to pass amazing Spider-Man 2 OS. Point being it is going to make more then Amazing Spider-Man 2 both OS and USA that is a great start.
 
Homecoming's weekday numbers meant it was pretty much guaranteed to get $300M+ after the 2nd weekend was over. So let's be fair, that second weekend drop being bigger than than any MCU or Spider-Man movie didn't really mean anything. It didn't mean it would have the worst legs of any MCU or Spider-Man movie, which is what people were implying with that little factoid. It just makes for a nice clickbait title.

Comparing the 2nd weekend drop with TASM2 and SM3 is comparing apples and oranges. It doesn't actually tell us anything, except maybe that the person making the comparison probably doesn't know much about how the box office works.
Sure it did.
 
A 2.75 multiplier from OW is damn good.

And no it wasn't guaranteed to happen.

Civil War has 2.2 multiplier from OW.

SMH also has a better multiplier than GOTG2 and Logan which were both very well recieved.

And SMH is the first Spider-man movie to increase domestically from the last movie and has a chance at becoming the biggest Spider-movie WW.

Then you have one of the highest RT scores for a superhero movie.

SMH is a success in every sense of the word. Nuff said.
 
A 2.75 multiplier from OW is damn good.

And no it wasn't guaranteed to happen.

Civil War has 2.2 multiplier from OW.

SMH also has a better multiplier than GOTG2 and Logan which were both very well recieved.

And SMH is the first Spider-man movie to increase domestically from the last movie and has a chance at becoming the biggest Spider-movie WW.

Then you have one of the highest RT scores for a superhero movie.

SMH is a success in every sense of the word. Nuff said.
Depends on when, because really it is guaranteed to happen now. (2.75x multiplier is about $322M which it will reach less than a week from now).

And I didn't say a 2.75x multiplier was guaranteed to happen after the 2nd weekend. I said $300M was, $300M is a 2.56x multiplier, not 2.75x. Obviously $300M was not guaranteed right after opening weekend. But after the 2nd weekend the odds of missing it were very small. It was pretty much guaranteed to make it to $300M at that point. $320M+ is another story and it took more time and good holds before that was guaranteed.

And btw, the multipliers GotG2(2.67x) and Logan(2.56x) got would have taken Homecoming to $300M+ as well. And Homecoming was outpacing both of those movies by a significant margin after the second weekend was over(in the multiplier department). Like I said: not guaranteed from the start, but after the second weekend? Pretty much guaranteed.

Agreed that Homecoming is definitely a success.
 
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Just admit you were wrong and move on.

I admit nothing. The movie opened well but it still had a pretty bad drop off in its second week. Plus a lot of other franchises under-performing over the summer, it's an alarming trend that Hollywood should be taking note of.
 
I wouldn't say Homecoming under-performed but rather exceeded expectations. Other franchises definitely under-performed though, like Apes, which unlike Homecoming came off two well-received films (by both fans & critics). I figured 750 m was the best case scenario for HC prior to it's opening and the majority in this poll voted between 700-800 m as well. And even more members voted under that then over.

This film will increase the domestic box office by about 65% compared to TASM2 when all is said and done.

**Well I see the majority voted over now, but the point still stands, a 65% increase domestically is nothing to lose sight over. If this does perform well in China it will likely do over the 800 million mark, which is 100 million + more then the last entry and a benchmark not achieved by this franchise in a decade. :)

A fantastic turnaround all things considered.
 
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I admit nothing. The movie opened well but it still had a pretty bad drop off in its second week. Plus a lot of other franchises under-performing over the summer, it's an alarming trend that Hollywood should be taking note of.

You don't have to admit anything. That doesn't make you less wrong though. Homecoming faced two very strong and well reviewed films that would naturally take theater screens and split the audiences on its second and third weekend. It held pretty well and just kept going. Either you or Grace Rundolph admit something or not doesn't make you more right.

Talking about admitting that I was wrong, me and iEquinox called above what Homecoming is doing this weekend domestically, Nicko-Ray was the one that got closest, but iEquinox was still closer than me, so great call. I still insist that Homecoming will easily get to $330m, with the possibility of crawling to $335-$336m by the end of the year.
 
I wouldn't say Homecoming under performed but rather exceeded expectations. Other franchises definitely under performed though, like Apes, which unlike Homecoming came off two well-received films (by both fans & critics). I figured 750 m was the best case scenario for HC prior to it's opening and the majority in this poll voted between 700-800 m as well. And even more under that then over.

This film will increase the domestic box office by about 65% compared to TASM2 when all is said and done.

Homecoming will become at the very least the second biggest Spider-Man film unadjusted. It's going for arguably at least $850m, with great odds of topping Spider-Man 3 and at the very least top GotG, Vol. 2, becoming the highest grossing superhero film of the year. Anyone claiming that Homecoming is underperforming really doesn't have a strong understanding on how box office works. Be it Randolph, Mendelson or anyone else.
 
You don't have to admit anything. That doesn't make you less wrong though. Homecoming faced two very strong and well reviewed films that would naturally take theater screens and split the audiences on its second and third weekend. It held pretty well and just kept going. Either you or Grace Rundolph admit something or not doesn't make you more right.

Talking about admitting that I was wrong, me and iEquinox called above what Homecoming is doing this weekend domestically, Nicko-Ray was the one that got closest, but iEquinox was still closer than me, so great call. I still insist that Homecoming will easily get to $330m, with the possibility of crawling to $335-$336m by the end of the year.

I have to admit that after the second weekend I thought 300 was iffy. I believed it still had a decent shot, but at best it would crawl over...So I am more then happy with the fact it's surged past that mark with a great multiplier to boot. :up:
 
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The post 2nd weekend legs have been very good.
 
You don't have to admit anything. That doesn't make you less wrong though. Homecoming faced two very strong and well reviewed films that would naturally take theater screens and split the audiences on its second and third weekend. It held pretty well and just kept going. Either you or Grace Rundolph admit something or not doesn't make you more right.

Talking about admitting that I was wrong, me and iEquinox called above what Homecoming is doing this weekend domestically, Nicko-Ray was the one that got closest, but iEquinox was still closer than me, so great call. I still insist that Homecoming will easily get to $330m, with the possibility of crawling to $335-$336m by the end of the year.
It's not passing Spider-Man 3 domestically or worldwide. Also don't compare to Grace Randolph.

If there was some alarmism over the second weekend drop it was pretty valid because it was still the largest second weekend drop for an MCU film or a Spider-Man movie in history. The film managed to settle and do well, but it's competition didn't do that impressively, especially Planet of the Apes, which is the worst performing movie in that rebooted franchise.

The first Captain America movie really had much tougher competition in 2011.
 
It's not passing Spider-Man 3 domestically or worldwide. Also don't compare to Grace Randolph.

If there was some alarmism over the second weekend drop it was pretty valid because it was still the largest second weekend drop for an MCU film or a Spider-Man movie in history. The film managed to settle and do well, but it's competition didn't do that impressively, especially Planet of the Apes, which is the worst performing movie in that rebooted franchise.

The first Captain America movie really had much tougher competition in 2011.

2nd biggest Spider-man movie out of 6 films and possibly the biggest film of the summer WW will have to do then. :csad:
 
It's not passing Spider-Man 3 domestically or worldwide. Also don't compare to Grace Randolph.

If there was some alarmism over the second weekend drop it was pretty valid because it was still the largest second weekend drop for an MCU film or a Spider-Man movie in history. The film managed to settle and do well, but it's competition didn't do that impressively, especially Planet of the Apes, which is the worst performing movie in that rebooted franchise.

The first Captain America movie really had much tougher competition in 2011.

You don't have any idea how this works if you can't understand that it doesn't matter if Planet of the Apes performed well or not. WB has agreements with IMAX and other movie theater chains that would naturally take a big chunk of Spider-Man: Homecoming's screens regardless of demand. The IMAX theaters couldn't possibly keep Homecoming with Apes and Dunkirk because they have a previous agreement with WB for those screens, regardless the performances of said films. The fact that you don't see alterations on the number of screens of Homecoming's second weekend doesn't mean that that film didn't lost a big chunk of IMAX screens for both Apes and Dunkirk.

I agree with you on saying that the box office slump that is happening in 2017 is alarming, but Homecoming, Wonder Woman and Guardians are obvious outliers. Comparing Homecoming with a six year old release is completely non-sense, and I don't even remember what films Captain America: The First Avenger faced. I do remember that The Amazing Spider-Man 1 faced The Dark Knight Rises in 2012, and that film came out after WB's renewed IMAX deal happened, meaning that that film also lost a big chunk of screens for TDKR when that film was released. Homecoming faced not one, but two WB films taking a big chunk of its IMAX screens. And yet, Homecoming is going for a x2.8+ multiplier, which is above the average with Marvel Studios films, let alone superhero films. I'm not comparing you personally to Randolph, I'm comparing your box office analysis to hers, and yes, both are crassly wrong.
 
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2nd biggest Spider-man movie out of 6 films and possibly the biggest film of the summer WW will have to do then. :csad:

I wouldn't discard Homecoming topping SM3 unadjusted just yet. Neither domestic or worldwide. China pre-sales are going strong as it was expected, and while iEquinox thinks that Homecoming will struggle to get to $330m, I feel that it'll reach that milestone before the end of September, with possiblities of crawling to $335-$336m after that.
 
If there was some alarmism over the second weekend drop it was pretty valid because it was still the largest second weekend drop for an MCU film or a Spider-Man movie in history.
Alarmism over the drop was understandable(not everyone knows how to interpret the numbers after all). But it wasn't valid. There's a difference.

A multiplier over 2.5x was the bare minimum it would realistically get after the second weekend drop.
And a multiplier over 2.5x is fine, it's certainly not something to be alarmed by.
Now it even went quite a bit higher, and it's going to have the 5th best legs in the entire MCU.

You keep repeating yourself saying that it was the "largest second weekend drop", but that isn't magically going to make the facts disappear.
No matter how much you seem to have wanted it to, the 2nd weekend drop didn't mean it was getting a horrible multiplier.
And would you look at that. It didn't. How surprising.
 
2nd biggest Spider-man movie out of 6 films and possibly the biggest film of the summer WW will have to do then. :csad:

There's a good chance it doesn't hit either of those marks.

Alarmism over the drop was understandable(not everyone knows how to interpret the numbers after all). But it wasn't valid. There's a difference.

A multiplier over 2.5x was the bare minimum it would realistically get after the second weekend drop.
And a multiplier over 2.5x is fine, it's certainly not something to be alarmed by.
Now it even went quite a bit higher, and it's going to have the 5th best legs in the entire MCU.

You keep repeating yourself saying that it was the "largest second weekend drop", but that isn't magically going to make the facts disappear.
No matter how much you seem to have wanted it to, the 2nd weekend drop didn't mean it was getting a horrible multiplier.
And would you look at that. It didn't. How surprising.

It wasn't clear that could still be the case after the second weekend. Additionally, movies like Spider-Man Homecoming that aren't getting bad reviews aren't dropping that high in their second weekend regardless of how big they opened. So people had to make readjustments and maybe people, me included over-reacted over the drop, but when you see a drop like that, you use the information you have at the time.

Clearly after that the numbers started to settle and the legs for Spider-Man Homecoming kicked in a lot later. But that's not the usual trend for a blockbuster such as this.
 
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