The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[KDM1986]

it will be interesting to see how the fans and general audience react to Marvels first female superhero solo outing. Gotta think this could do 600 million worldwide.

 

[flickchick85]

$600 million was my estimate, too, though I think it's a pretty conservative one. Considering the placement of this film, coming out a mere 2 months after Infinity War Part 1 with everyone still reeling from that and dying to see what happens next? This could do REALLY well, imo. Especially if it includes some familiar faces from that film as the MCU is doing more and more now.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Fox has an untitled Marvel film scheduled for the weekend after. They'd be smart to move it because CM will hurt that more then it hurts CM. That being said, if it stays it'll have an impact coveting the same demo.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm going conservative for this one, so...

Domestic - $180 million
Worldwide - $450 to $600 million

Who knows, it could be like a Maleficent hit!

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'm going conservative for this one, so...

Domestic - $180 million
Worldwide - $450 to $600 million

Who knows, it could be like a Maleficent hit!

This is really conservative. If most of the MCU movies leading up to Captain Marvel are hits then I would say the movie will gross upward of 700M worldwide easily.

 

[HIA]

I voted for 700m. But I'll explain it. Guardians did that, and yeah, it doesnt mean now of a sudden all the new characters will do the same, but we have to take into account that her movie comes in 2018, so that means +3 years from now, so by that time, Marvel movies will be doing much more, imo. Marvel will get even more popular, and the fanbase will be even bigger, so my take is that most movies will be doing a bit more than now. Guardians, Cap3.... Im sure all will do better, so Ms Marvel wont have a hard time getting a strong box office.

I almost voted for 600m, but taking all of this into account and the 2018 distance, around 700m is my bet.

 

[harryoscop]

600m I think coming out of Infinity War, it'll have a strong boost.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

215 m DOM
335 m OS

550 m WW

 

[KangConquers]

I'm going to be cautious and say $500 M worldwide, with the understanding that it's the floor for the movie, and not the ceiling.

 

[Iceman]

Infinity War could take Avatar's worldwide record. If the films leading up to it are all TWS/GotG standard I think it will. And if CM is introduced in that film her own box office is gonna see a huge boost.

 

[Gisele]

Bump.. I'm gonna say 450-500 million. Simply cause look at Ant Man, he's around the same level of knowness to non comic book fans as Captain Marvel is and only grossed around 400 million give or take. And Ant Man had a pretty well known cast.

 

[Mike5575]

Bump.. I'm gonna say 450-500 million. Simply cause look at Ant Man, he's around the same level of knowness to non comic book fans as Captain Marvel is and only grossed around 400 million give or take. And Ant Man had a pretty well known cast.

I can't say I agree with you. As Marvel's first female superhero film, the Captain Marvel movie is generating tremendous buzz outside of comicbook fandom. Not to mention, Carol Danvers has a much more epic powerset and origin story than Ant-Man. Ant-Man did real well considering it was a movie based off a superhero with a ridiculous powerset of shrinking and flying on ants.

 

[Wildcard]

Way too early to be making predictions, especially when we haven't even gotten casting announcements yet.

 

[fixxxer]

^ Hence the term "prediction".

Voted $700 mill... which I think is slightly on the conservative side.

I think everyone seems to forget that women constitute 52% of the movie going public, and as a group have (rightly) felt underrepresented in the superhero genre. If this movie hits the right chord... i.e. it's marketed to women* rather than pandering to women**, I think Captain Marvel is going to be absolutely massive.

* Doesn't mean that it has to be marketed exclusively to women.
** Ye gods, has anyone seen those Supergirl promos? *shudders*

 

[Mike5575]

^ Hence the term "prediction".

Voted $700 mill... which I think is slightly on the conservative side.

I think everyone seems to forget that women constitute 52% of the movie going public, and as a group have (rightly) felt underrepresented in the superhero genre. If this movie hits the right chord... i.e. it's marketed to women* rather than pandering to women**, I think Captain Marvel is going to be absolutely massive.

* Doesn't mean that it has to be marketed exclusively to women.
** Ye gods, has anyone seen those Supergirl promos? *shudders*

Well, I think Carol will break 100 million on the opening weekend with an overall BO of 900 mil. Call me crazy, but I think it will happen.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

If the movie did as well as Ant-Man I would be happy. That would still make it the most successful comic book movie with a female lead ever.

 

[fixxxer]

^

Personally, I think crossing Ant-Man's BO is about as safe a bet as it gets.

Nothing is set in stone, of course... any number of horrible things could happen. From Civil War plus a couple of subsequent films being critical disasters hence dampening the GA's appetite for the MCU to Captain Marvel being saddled with an insipid cast and/or creative team. However, unforeseeable disasters aside, Cap'n Marvel ought to easily top Ant-Man.

 

[flickchick85]

Agreed. I'll be very surprised if it doesn't do AT LEAST $100M more than Ant-Man globally. And that's the floor to me - I expect it to do a whole lot more than that when all's said and done.

 

[Wildcard]

^ Hence the term "prediction".

Voted $700 mill... which I think is slightly on the conservative side.

I think everyone seems to forget that women constitute 52% of the movie going public, and as a group have (rightly) felt underrepresented in the superhero genre. If this movie hits the right chord... i.e. it's marketed to women* rather than pandering to women**, I think Captain Marvel is going to be absolutely massive.

* Doesn't mean that it has to be marketed exclusively to women.
** Ye gods, has anyone seen those Supergirl promos? *shudders*

I know what the term prediction means, friend. It's to speculate on a potential outcome based on the already established facts and formalities at hand. Now, with that being said, how can we make predictions when we have absolutely no news on this, no footage....nothing.

Hence why I said this thread has been created far, far too early.

 

[third3ye]

I know what the term prediction means, friend. It's to speculate on a potential outcome based on the already established facts and formalities at hand. Now, with that being said, how can we make predictions when we have absolutely no news on this, no footage....nothing.

Hence why I said this thread has been created far, far too early.

 

[fixxxer]

I know what the term prediction means, friend. It's to speculate on a potential outcome based on the already established facts and formalities at hand. Now, with that being said, how can we make predictions when we have absolutely no news on this, no footage....nothing.

Hence why I said this thread has been created far, far too early.

Too early for an accurate prediction? Absolutely. Doesn't mean predictions cannot be made based on the facts at hand.

* Captain Marvel is an upcoming tent-pole superhero movie set in the MCU.
* Carol Danvers might be Marvel's most high-profile female superhero, at present.
* Thirst for a good female-led superhero movie implies a huge untapped market.

Those are three solid data points to base a preliminary prediction on. The accuracy of said prediction will of course be refined based on the data points that will be revealed in the future.

 

[DanielFM]

On the other hand, the uncertainty introduced in the prediction by:
-Not knowing the director
-Not knowing the main actress
is too big to allow any decent guess.
All those factors you mentioned could be completely cancelled by a poor casting choice or a poor director.
Or they could be amplified manifold by the perfect choices.

 

[SwiftFox]

Well considering who the writer's are for this movie, I do have some high hopes for it. That said, while I think it'll do better than Ant-Man, I'm still only going to say 500-600M World-Wide.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Yikes. 2019. By then the bar will have been set higher for all movies.
Let's also take into account that this will be a post Infinity War movie so expectations and hype will be sky high

OW: $150M
Dom: $300 Million
Int: $500 Million
WW: $800 Million
RT: 92%
CinemaScore: A+

 

[Stark Bauer]

Well, I think Carol will break 100 million on the opening weekend with an overall BO of 900 mil. Call me crazy, but I think it will happen.

Given that it will be the year 2019 and an OW of $100M for CBM is almost a given in the years 2012-2016, there will be a lot more people on planet earth and ticket prices might have risen, more theatres built we will have probably releases going into over 5000 theatres by that time...inflation etc