The G.I. Joe Box Office Prediction Thread

[Assassin]

And niether is District 9.

I think District 9 will make money due to its low budget, but it's not going to reach a terribly big audience. The commercials make it look like an action sci-fi movie, but it's really more of a faux-documentary with an action scene or two thrown in. I've seen the original short version and it's very good, but I think a lot of people are going to complain that it's slow and / or preachy, so don't expect it to get great WOM post-release amongst average viewers. It's going to be a good movie, but it's also going to be a niche movie. At best, I see it being another Cloverfield in terms of reception, which would be admirable but I think GI Joe has a decent shot at retaining its #1 spot next week if Paramount keeps on pushing the adverts. Also, District 9 is rated R, while both GI Joe and Cloverfield (the closest movie I can probably compare D9 to) are PG-13. It could go either way IMO, but if D9 does beat GI Joe, it will be because of a big droppoff of GI Joe's part, not because D9 is a movie that everyone is flocking to see instead.

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Really? Have you seen the movie? Because I saw it Last week and it was much much more than that. Yes it starts off like a faux documentary, but it has more to offer than that. It doesnt preach anything like outright, it has symbolism, and that it takes place in south africa its pretty obvious what it is. if you go into it wanting a good scifi film, you get that, if you want a drama, it has that, action, way more than "one or two scenes". If the viewer is smart, he will get the message thats in the film. If the viewer goes in to watch a good movie, they'll get that too.

 

[lou2099]

It's August, it's finally hot outside, we're in a global recession, 56 mil is great scratch.

 

[Timstuff]

I didn't say it wouldn't be good. I think it's going to kick ass, but I am skeptical of how much of GI Joe's audience it manages to take away, especially since GI Joe will still have the kid demographic locked up.

 

[Assassin]

so you didnt see it?

 

[BlackLantern]

so you didnt see it?

It's not something I'd bring my 11 yr old nephew to (District 9)

 

[FCEEVIPER]

G.I. Joe Rise Of Cobra SEQUEL CONFIRMED

The Los Angeles Times has posted an article about the opening weekend sales for G.I. Joe Rise of Cobra, which earned $100 million worldwide. In addition, they mentioned another interesting tidbit of information:

That's certainly good enough for Paramount to claim victory, however, and start thinking about the future. The studio's vice chairman, Rob Moore, confirmed that a sequel will soon go into development. The film's lead actors are contractually obligated to return for another film, though director Stephen Sommers is not.

 

[Advocate05]

The people throwing around the 175 million figure(including myself earlier), forget one thing ... Promotion. TF2 cost 200 million to make and another 50 million for promotion. Now GI Joe near the release of the film had a ton of TV spots. That cost money. So, if you add that to it. 175 million, plus lets estimate 50 million (in line with TF2) = 225 million total. So, it made 100 million. Good. Now toys AND DVD sales I still say it will make 325 million when all is said and done.

Oh and District 9 from what I'VE HEARD is more action-y than Timstuff is saying. Will it whoo the younger crowd? No, but that didn't stop anyone from buying the Watchmen DVD and making that number 1 for two weeks in a row. And again people seem to forget DVD sales help A LOT!

 

[Advocate05]

edit: double post. I clicked the button once and i still get a double post. WHY?

 

[TheVileOne]

G.I. Joe Rise Of Cobra SEQUEL CONFIRMED

The Los Angeles Times has posted an article about the opening weekend sales for G.I. Joe Rise of Cobra, which earned $100 million worldwide. In addition, they mentioned another interesting tidbit of information:

That's certainly good enough for Paramount to claim victory, however, and start thinking about the future. The studio's vice chairman, Rob Moore, confirmed that a sequel will soon go into development. The film's lead actors are contractually obligated to return for another film, though director Stephen Sommers is not.

We'll see.

Dragon Ball had TWO SEQUELS confirmed not long ago.

 

[TheVileOne]

Weekend actual # from bom:

G.i. Joe paramount $54,713,046

 

[FCEEVIPER]

We'll see...

We sure will see.

 

[Nightmare]

More Baroness!

 

[TheVileOne]

You can keep your crappy American Baroness garbage.

This wasn't a GI JOE movie. All the bad guys were Americans, and the good guys were multinationals. What a joke.

 

[Big Lob]

You can keep your crappy American Baroness garbage.

This wasn't a GI JOE movie. All the bad guys were Americans, and the good guys were multinationals. What a joke.

Cobra Commander was American in the comics. And Destro was not American in the movie, not sure what you're talking about...

 

[Doctor Jones]

You can keep your crappy American Baroness garbage.

This wasn't a GI JOE movie. All the bad guys were Americans, and the good guys were multinationals. What a joke.

God, you're acting like the stereotypical fanboy.

Dude, Destro was ****ing SCOTTISH!

Baroness with the American accent was fine. You're nitpicking. And times have changed dude. It's not all about us anymore. I think everyone coming together and doing something good is positive and what America is all about.

 

[TheVileOne]

She was Duke's boyfriend and Cobra Commander's sister! ********. Stupid ********.

 

[Assassin]

wtf man spoiler that **** why dont you tell every one that they kill stormshadow too while you're at it and snape killed dumbledore

 

[deathshead2]

We'll see.

Dragon Ball had TWO SEQUELS confirmed not long ago.

I remember that being a rumor based on an interview by Masters months before the movie even came out.

Also thank god Stephen is not signed for a second. I hope he'll be to busy with that Tarzan movie to work on this.

Also This movie still needs to hit $300 million to even look like it breaks even. Paramount is moving forward a bit premature.

 

[Doctor Jones]

She was Duke's boyfriend and Cobra Commander's sister! ********. Stupid ********.

Baroness is Duke's boyfriend! Now I see where you're coming from!

 

[Theweepeople]

I remember that being a rumor based on an interview by Masters months before the movie even came out.

Also thank god Stephen is not signed for a second. I hope he'll be to busy with that Tarzan movie to work on this.

Also This movie still needs to hit $300 million to even look like it breaks even. Paramount is moving forward a bit premature.

If Paramount does greenlight a sequel than hopefully both Sommers and Di Bonaventura won't be involved. However, even if an above average director is hired I'm not sure how he's going to correct some of the horribly flawed storytelling aspects of this film. Storm Shadow is still dead and The Baroness isn't bad anymore. Those two characters are a part of Cobra's core and you can't easily do a GI Joe movie without them.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I've been thinking:

I remember last year when the Incredible Hulk opened to 55.4 million and everybody on these here boards told me that it had amazing word of mouth and that it would have good legs and make back it's 150 million dollar budget. Then what happened? It dropped 60.1% in it's 2nd weekend despite this "amazing word of mouth" and it ended with 134.8mil. Instead of an amazing multiplier it ended with a 2.43 multiplier....far from amazing.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong (like I was on TDK, Iron Man and countless other films) but I don't see why I should suddenly believe that JOE is going to have these amazing legs?

It's reviews are worse than TIH's (which, I know, doesn't matter tons if you are the right movie)

It's weekend multiplier was worse (which points to some huge frontloading and might point to meh word of mouth)

(On the useless websites nerds pretend that normal people give a s**t about) it's ratings are worse or are pretty much the same

I just don't see any reason to believe that this movie's best case scenerio isn't TIH type legs, maybe a smidge better because of Labor Day.

That 54.7million dollar opening should be enough for a cheaper sequel that will drop off from the first one as I've said before.

And a monkey could see that Paramount was acting foolish with it's estimates.

Also I think that people are setting themselves up for another Watchmen type boxoffice disappointement if they expect D9 to be some huge hit. I wouldn't be surprised if the movie opened with 20mil and ended with 50mil.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Keep in mind, the wording of Rob Moore was that they'll "soon" have one in development. Not "we greenlit the sequel immediately after we got the numbers and are working on it ASAP for 2011!" They're waiting to see how it holds during the week and this coming weekend.

The thing to keep in mind is that most kids are going back to school this week (if not already have!) So, there's a highly likely chance the numbers won't be that awesome at the daily box-office.

 

[Doctor Jones]

All I know is that they should make the sequel for less money. You can't have something like a first time property and spend more than $150 mil on it. Especially if it's something people are unsure about. Make the sequel for $100 million or so.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

That's easier said than done.

 

[Timstuff]

Keep in mind that GI Joe's budget is subsidized with toy sales. And before someone makes an erroneous Superman Returns comparison, kids actually buy GI Joe toys.