The G.I. Joe Box Office Prediction Thread

[TheVileOne]

There are several ways they can bump up GI Joe 2's profitability:

1) give it a 4th of July Weekend release date
2) Cut the budget down to 150 million and focus more on infantry shootouts than grand-scale CG battles

Sequels in these franchises do NOT cost less. Look at The Incredible Hulk which was a reboot from scratch, it still didn't cost less. The Incredible Hulk ended up costing a lot more than 2003 Hulk and only made a little more. Fans of 2003 thought they were going to make a cheaper sequel. Its not going to happen.

3) Not having to play second fiddle to a Transformers movie would help

Well Transformers is already established and the movies make like more than twice as much as what GI JOE did. The stigma is there.

GI Joe was an investment, and Paramount would not have released a 175 million movie in August if they weren't expecting to take a slight hit financially. The real payoff will be from toy sales, and sequels which will likely be bigger earners than the first one. By August standards GI Joe is a pretty big hit-- 300 million for an end of summer movie is nothing to scoff at. The issue at hand is that GI Joe's budget was disproportionate to its release window, and the only concievable reason for why is because Paramount and Hasbro expect that the sequels will be big enough hits that it won't matter in the long run if the first one only breaks even. They're not stupid-- they're not going to just throw 175 million at a movie and expect it to make 600 million in August.

They rushed the movie into production because of the writer's strike. When movies are rushed you have to spend more money, that simple.

Its not that big of a hit for August considering Rush Hour 2, Signs, and The Bourne Ultimatum, or The Bourne Supremacy and The Simpsons which both made most of their money in August. Also considering that GI JOE had so much merchandising potential as well as a wider potential demographic than those franchises.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

So does this mean a sequel will be happening or not, I didnt think the BO was anything spectacular but people kept going on about the profits from merchandising and how they would influence the profit margin.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah well people go on about that about the last two Hulk movies, neither of which really made any money nor are they getting actual sequels. Dragon Ball fans are still convinced a sequel is in the works. Fox even "ANNOUNCED" a sequel right before the movie came out.

Blah blah all the other crap, I get it. The fact is, none of the money its making right now, not all of it goes directly back to Paramount.

It might do well enough to warrant a sequel, but a few years ago, Paramount was in a similar situation where they weren't sure they wanted to greenlight such an expensive MI:3 sequel because that was when Tom Cruise was going nuts publically. They went ahead with MI:3 and it turned out to be a huge disappointment for them.

Its a huge ****ing risk when right now the big conglomerates are SCALING back and limiting these types of productions. GI JOE and this is if you actually look at it does not warrant the same kind of budget and hype that Transformers does if you look at the basic dollars and cents. When a sequel could very well go the way of CHARLIES' ANGELS 2, FF2, and MI:3 2. Some of these that Paramount knows very well.

 

[Timstuff]

So does this mean a sequel will be happening or not, I didnt think the BO was anything spectacular but people kept going on about the profits from merchandising and how they would influence the profit margin.

It depends on who you ask: if you ask people who hated it, no. If you ask people who liked it, yes. And really, that's how it is for just about everything.

However, Paramount did say after the opening weekend that a sequel was already being planned. The big question is, are they satasfied with the box office to the point where they'll greenlight the sequel, and I really wouldn't expect a real answer until after the DVD sales at the earliest. The movie is tracking pretty much the same as Fantastic 4 did when it released though, and in a much tougher month, so I'd be very surprised if there was no sequel. By most measures the movie is a success, but that's not good enough to convince the people who are against seeing this franchise continue.

 

[TheVileOne]

It depends on who you ask: if you ask people who hated it, no. If you ask people who liked it, yes. And really, that's how it is for just about everything.

However, Paramount did say after the opening weekend that a sequel was already being planned. The big question is, are they satasfied with the box office to the point where they'll greenlight the sequel, and I really wouldn't expect a real answer until after the DVD sales at the earliest. The movie is tracking pretty much the same as Fantastic 4 did when it released though, and in a much tougher month, so I'd be very surprised if there was no sequel. By most measures the movie is a success, but that's not good enough to convince the people who are against seeing this franchise continue.

Studios plan a lot of movies that don't end up happening.

Fox is "planning" reboots of Daredevil and Fantastic Four so they won't lose the rights back to Marvel yet.

I'm not sure what measures you are speaking of TimStuff, since I can name you movies that have had much greater success in August than GI JOE that weren't based on toys, cartoons, and comics.

 

[Timstuff]

And I betcha almost all of them were sequels.

 

[TheVileOne]

What they all weren't are a popular and long running pre-established franchise like GI JOE.

 

[Timstuff]

Pre-established franchise or not, if it's not a film franchise it doesn't have the same built-in pull as being a sequel to a prior hit does.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

It depends on who you ask: if you ask people who hated it, no. If you ask people who liked it, yes. And really, that's how it is for just about everything.

However, Paramount did say after the opening weekend that a sequel was already being planned. The big question is, are they satasfied with the box office to the point where they'll greenlight the sequel, and I really wouldn't expect a real answer until after the DVD sales at the earliest. The movie is tracking pretty much the same as Fantastic 4 did when it released though, and in a much tougher month, so I'd be very surprised if there was no sequel. By most measures the movie is a success, but that's not good enough to convince the people who are against seeing this franchise continue.

I know its tracking similar to FF, but FF cost $75 million less than so thats were my doubt comes in, and I enjoyed the movie, I think if a sequel on GIJoe was based on BO alone we wouldnt be getting one to be honest. This wont make as much as Terminator Salvation has WW, and TS only cost $15 million more and wont be getting a sequel.

Has the movie yet to open in any major international markets as its international pull at the weekend wasnt to impressive.

 

[Timstuff]

True, but I have a hard time believing that Paramount wasn't prepared to take a slight loss as an investment. The franchise proved that it's a success with audiences, and with the groundwork now laid down they can probably anticipate higher returns on sequels, assuming they're well made enough to resonate with audiences. If they were willing to make 75 million less in order to get F4's numbers in August (F4 was a July release), I speculate it's because they believe they can do much better with a sequel releasing in July. Like I said, Paramount isn't dumb. GI Joe is pretty much the most expensive August release ever, it was not a sequel, and August is notorious for not being a very lucrative month. They would not drop that much money into an untested franchise for an August release unless they were expecting that most of the money would be made outside of the box office in the forms of DVD sales, merchandise, and ultimately returns from sequels.

 

[TheVileOne]

You are talking about F4 where they clearly got a sequel that did even worse. So why do you think F4 is such a great comparison which really doesn't bode well for this franchise at all.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that TimStuff is being way to generous to GI JOE's boxoffice numbers. I actually haven't see the film because frankly I think it looks like s**t so I'm not even discussing it's quality when I talk about it's boxoffice numbers. August or not the movie is not some huge hit nor is it a failure. Yes it outperformed it's low expectations but that doesn't mean it busted out like Star Trek or the Hangover did. Toy sales or not, it's budget was f**king huge and it's going to be hard for a sequel's budget to not be the same or even bigger. At worst I expect the budget to be like, 160mil versus the 175mil they spent on the first one.

The studio is going to have to think long and hard about making a sequel because I have seen no proof that GI JOE is being as well recieved as the first Transformers movie but on a smaller scale ofcourse. It's still looking like an F4 situation to me.

Ofcourse I'll change my tune in the unlikely event that the DVD sale's more than Star Trek or Harry Potter or Transformers 2.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I think that TimStuff is being way to generous to GI JOE's boxoffice numbers. I actually haven't see the film because frankly I think it looks like s**t so I'm not even discussing it's quality when I talk about it's boxoffice numbers. August or not the movie is not some huge hit nor is it a failure. Yes it outperformed it's low expectations but that doesn't mean it busted out like Star Trek or the Hangover did. Toy sales or not, it's budget was f**king huge and it's going to be hard for a sequel's budget to not be the same or even bigger. At worst I expect the budget to be like, 160mil versus the 175mil they spent on the first one.

The studio is going to have to think long and hard about making a sequel because I have seen no proof that GI JOE is being as well recieved as the first Transformers movie but on a smaller scale ofcourse. It's still looking like an F4 situation to me.

Ofcourse I'll change my tune in the unlikely event that the DVD sale's more than Star Trek or Harry Potter or Transformers 2.

For once, i'd have to agree with you ISS . The movie hasnt set the box office alight and at this point is unlikely to make much more WW than it already has, with a production budget of $175 million, it would have to make at least that domestically to break even, I dont see Paramount making a sequel to a movie that didnt break even.

 

[Timstuff]

$175 was too large a budget for an August release though. Paramount obviously took that into consideration when the movie was being made, because I have a hard time believing that they actually expected July numbers for an August movie. I simply want people to realize that there will be a lot more going into GI Joe's report card than the box office returns.

 

[DACrowe]

If it sells well on DVD there will be a sequel. It made enough that it won't embarass itself and made a small profit, but they need to know if there will be an audience for a sequel by looking at the retail reaction. Similar to how Austin Powers got a sequel.

With that said I see this going the way of FF. Two and done. But hey, when franchises like TF keep going and going, it really is moot at this point.

 

[Timstuff]

If a movie makes a ton of money the first time around, it can sometimes survive a less-than-stellar perfomance from the sequel (as was the case with Chronicles of Narnia). However, with a movie like this or Fantastic 4 (assuming GI Joe does well on DVD), the second movie is the make-or-break moment. The sequel needs to bring in significantly more than Rise of Cobra (at least 400 million or more vs. ROC's projected 300+) if there's going to be any hope of a third one. Hopefully, Paramount has enough faith in the potential of a sequel to not only greenlight it, but to give it a higher profile 4th of July weekend release date.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

$175 was too large a budget for an August release though. Paramount obviously took that into consideration when the movie was being made, because I have a hard time believing that they actually expected July numbers for an August movie. I simply want people to realize that there will be a lot more going into GI Joe's report card than the box office returns.

Releasing a movie in August with that budget doesnt indicate to me that Paramount took all of this into consideration, it says to me they had little to no confidence in the product enough to put into a more profitable spot. It doesnt suggest to me they were willing to take a loss on the BO just to sell some merchandise.

 

[jebhdb]

I would bet that there will be a sequel to G.I. Joe. The overseas box office outperformed it's expectations and the domestic box office has shown to have legs. There was less than a 35% drop in its box office this weekend. When the movie finishes it's domestic run the box office will be near or at it's production budget. The dvd sales of the movie should be strong and could be really strong if they get it out before christmas. Then you add in the sales of action figures, video games, clothing, back packs etc... and I believe G.I. Joe will prove to be profitable enough to warrant a sequel.

 

[King of Kings]

Well so far it's made $279,857,892 Worldwide and still seems to have some steam left.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I would bet that there will be a sequel to G.I. Joe. The overseas box office outperformed it's expectations and the domestic box office has shown to have legs. There was less than a 35% drop in its box office this weekend. When the movie finishes it's domestic run the box office will be near or at it's production budget. The dvd sales of the movie should be strong and could be really strong if they get it out before christmas. Then you add in the sales of action figures, video games, clothing, back packs etc... and I believe G.I. Joe will prove to be profitable enough to warrant a sequel.

It wont be anywere near its production budget domestically, it cost $175 million and isnt even at $140 million domestically yet, not to mention it is close to going out of the top 10 and once a movie drops out of there its profits dwindle quickly. It isnt going to make another $35 million domestically at this point, no way.

 

[terry78]

If they gave Crank a sequel, and Baby Geniuses a sequel, I don't fear too much for this franchise to get one.

 

[jebhdb]

It wont be anywere near its production budget domestically, it cost $175 million and isnt even at $140 million domestically yet, not to mention it is close to going out of the top 10 and once a movie drops out of there its profits dwindle quickly. It isnt going to make another $35 million domestically at this point, no way.

The domestic box office was at $141 million as of Monday. The last two weeks the weekend box office has dropped less than 35%. I would guess that the film will gross aproximately another $15 million before ending its domestic run which would put the final gross at about $160 million. If the drops continue at the current rate it could even do slightly better, but I realize that isn't likely due to school starting. So if the final gross is at $160 million I would say that is near its budget. You also have to consider that the international box office was better than expected so I do believe there will be a sequel to G.I. Joe.

 

[Timstuff]

It wont be anywere near its production budget domestically, it cost $175 million and isnt even at $140 million domestically yet, not to mention it is close to going out of the top 10 and once a movie drops out of there its profits dwindle quickly. It isnt going to make another $35 million domestically at this point, no way.

I agree that it's doubtful that it will make another 35 mil domestically. However, I think it's still got a fair shot at breaking 300 million WW before it's out of theaters. It might take a while, but the money is still trickling in.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

If they gave Crank a sequel, and Baby Geniuses a sequel, I don't fear too much for this franchise to get one.

Both of those movies made more than their budgets at the domestic BO though, GIJoe wont.

The domestic box office was at $141 million as of Monday. The last two weeks the weekend box office has dropped less than 35%. I would guess that the film will gross aproximately another $15 million before ending its domestic run which would put the final gross at about $160 million. If the drops continue at the current rate it could even do slightly better, but I realize that isn't likely due to school starting. So if the final gross is at $160 million I would say that is near its budget. You also have to consider that the international box office was better than expected so I do believe there will be a sequel to G.I. Joe.

But the studio doesnt get the full domestic gross, if it finishes at $160 million (which it wont BTW, its 7th now and once they drop from the top 10 profits decline pretty rapidly) Paramount only get 55% of that sum, thats quite a loss, and they only get 15% of the international gross, this movie will finish with no profit for Paramount once the box office is done, and it will take record breaking DVD sales to get it into profit, I dont see that happening.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I agree that it's doubtful that it will make another 35 mil domestically. However, I think it's still got a fair shot at breaking 300 million WW before it's out of theaters. It might take a while, but the money is still trickling in.

Only made 3.5 million internationally at the weekend, dont see it making another $20 million WW unless it is yet to open in a major market.