Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[rashad]

I'm pretty sure PoP is going to bomb. It just looks like it has way too much riding on it. And movies based on video games never seem to do well.

I wouldn't say never. More times than not maybe. POP isn't like a typical VGA.
http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=videogameadaptation.htm

 

[Tony Stark]

Of course not. We "naysayers" are just saying that Marvel/Paramount's job would be easier if IM2 had been TF2-big instead of not being as big as the original. IM1 was a pleasant surprise, but its box office wasn't mind-blowing. It still had room to grow, as TF2 showed. I mean, it was a movie about a bunch of cars that turn into robots. Although, IM1's box office may turn out to seem more more impressive over time, depending on how Thor, Cap, and Avengers do. (See below example re: Watchmen.)

It has nothing to do with "quality," since quality is subjective. We're talking about hype and momentum.


And considering how poorly Kick-Ass did this year, maybe the expectations on Watchmen WERE completely overblown to begin with. And Kick-Ass was marketed more fun than Watchmen certainly was.

We'll see if this is the case with IM1 and 2 a few years into the future. Right now, with the current movies available to us to compare it with, (especially TF2) people are just saying they thought it would do better than it's doing. Almost nobody (official peeps, people on BOM and WoKJ) predicted that IM2 would earn less than IM1, but it's looking very very likely.

The problem is with your logic then Star Trek was a total bomb and won't garner a sequel. I don't know anyone who thinks that TF2 was better than Star Trek.

 

[Ipodman]

The problem is with your logic then Star Trek was a total bomb and won't garner a sequel. I don't know anyone who thinks that TF2 was better than Star Trek.

True. I love TF2 but Star Trek was better t:

 

[Anita18]

The problem is with your logic then Star Trek was a total bomb and won't garner a sequel. I don't know anyone who thinks that TF2 was better than Star Trek.

No, with my logic Star Trek = BB. The hype is there, the momentum is there. Star Trek is not a sequel that didn't surpass its predecessor. It's the stepping stone to greater things.

Star Trek's sequel will be expected to do better than Star Trek. Just as IM2 was expected to do better than IM1, and it may not do that.

 

[TheVileOne]

No, with my logic Star Trek = BB. The hype is there, the momentum is there. Star Trek is not a sequel that didn't surpass its predecessor. It's the stepping stone to greater things.

Star Trek's sequel will be expected to do better than Star Trek. Just as IM2 was expected to do better than IM1, and it may not do that.

Too bad for you it already has.

 

[Anita18]

Too bad for you it already has.

Er, you're not talking about box office, are you? Because IM2 is about $60 million behind IM1 right now, counting both domestic and overseas markets.

It's ahead in foreign box office though, is that what you meant?

 

[baerrtt]

Someone asked earlier regarding how the reaction to SM2 was like when it overall didn't make as much as SM1 and if ppl were as gloomy as some are regarding IM2's performance and I think the difference was SM2 was so critically well received that most fanboys, at the time, didn't really care that it didn't outperform or match the first movie.

I think what's ultimately both disappointed some and caused others to get very defensive as regards to the numbers is the fact that the response isn't as wholly enthusiastic as it was for the first movie and, though some may deny it, that's coloured and influenced the debate/arguments.

 

[marcvader]

Do people here realistically think this movie won't surpass the first? The first movie made its total over a period of 5 months and this movie is only 60 mil behind after only 1 month. I don't get it.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Do people here realistically think this movie won't surpass the first? The first movie made its total over a period of 5 months and this movie is only 60 mil behind after only 1 month. I don't get it.

This is SHH. duh.

 

[ddddeeee]

Do people here realistically think this movie won't surpass the first? The first movie made its total over a period of 5 months and this movie is only 60 mil behind after only 1 month. I don't get it.

It's percentage drops are much worse than the first. I don't think it'll come close to the first but it should cross $300M easily enough.

 

[hatebox]

Do people here realistically think this movie won't surpass the first? The first movie made its total over a period of 5 months and this movie is only 60 mil behind after only 1 month. I don't get it.

Its drops are harder. What's not to get?

 

[Anita18]

Do people here realistically think this movie won't surpass the first? The first movie made its total over a period of 5 months and this movie is only 60 mil behind after only 1 month. I don't get it.

$60 million is actually a bigger and bigger number the longer the movie is in theaters. Unless the movie is called Avatar or Titanic.

 

[rashad]

Tuesday $1,810,492 -18.3%

 

[Evil Twin]

Do people here realistically think this movie won't surpass the first? The first movie made its total over a period of 5 months and this movie is only 60 mil behind after only 1 month. I don't get it.

IM2 is ahead of IM but showing steeper dropoffs. We'll know more after the weekend, but it still has a long ways to go.

See
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=ironman.htm
and
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=ironman2.htm


What's going to make it tougher is that it's almost certainly going to start to lose screens soon.

 

[terry78]

Yo mama is showing steeper dropoffs!!!!

 

[marcvader]

Thanks Evil Twin

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

IM2 is ahead of IM but showing steeper dropoffs. We'll know more after the weekend, but it still has a long ways to go.

See
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=ironman.htm
and
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=ironman2.htm


What's going to make it tougher is that it's almost certainly going to start to lose screens soon.

Its drop offs are not only bigger, but I just dont see IM2 having the legs of IM1, in fact its already showing that it hasnt.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah the dailys are going under a million starting next week. Oh well... had a good run.

 

[Evil Twin]

Its drop offs are not only bigger, but I just dont see IM2 having the legs of IM1, in fact its already showing that it hasnt.

Yeah, IM1 grossed $60 million after the Memorial Day weekend. I don't see IM2 doing that, although it will be ahead of IM1 due to a faster start.

I don't put it completely past IM2 exceeding the domestic gross of IM1, although it surely won't hit the milestone of $350 million. It will do more than $300 million and it may do more than IM1's $318 million. It's basically behaving like a popular, frontloaded sequel.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This weekend is a holiday so it will get a boost but after that it's back to the same drops it's been having.

Spider-Man 3 dropped 50.9% for it's M-Day 3day and 37.6% for it's 4day since IM2 is following it so closely I can surmise that IM2 should drop about 1 to 3% better for it's 3 and 4day M-Day weekend. I got to crunch the numbers to be sure though and I have to take into account what the competition will do in comparasion to what it did when SM3 came out.

And too respond to the over emotional; I never said that IM2 was a failure money wise I said that it had lukewarm word of mouth judging by it's drops and what the first movie did legs wise. And I said that it was a disappointment based on what everybody thought that it would do. You can not like what I'm saying but atleast get it right before you moan about it.

As I said the overseas is good (eventhough it's dropping like a mother overseas too) but domestically it's still in danger of not doing as well as the first and all of the defliction about SM2 grossing less that it's 400million dollar predecessor doesn't change that fact.

There were alot of people talking about how disappointing SM2's gross was by the way but I never thought that it was going to do better than the first because the first made 400mil so it wasn't disappointing to me. And the 151mil opening weekend for SM3 showed that not too many people hated SM2. SM3 would have easily outgrossed SM2 if it didn't suck so hard, that massive opening was proof of that. It's not just about the gross it's about the word of mouth.

If Paramount comes out with some halfbaked sequel to Star Trek it might gross more than the first based on a big opening but it damn sure is going to hurt the franchise in the long run. I'm so glad they are giving JJ 3 years to do it right, hopefully the script is far better than the first because that was easily the worst part of that film. Anyway I sort of went off topic. Oh well.

BTW My posts make perfect sense Tony because I am talking about the actual numbers and not letting my feelings get in the way. Read my take on Avatar's boxoffice run to see how unbiased I am when it comes to movies boxoffice numbers. I thought that that movie was as pointless as Iron Man 2 but I talked about it's fantastic legs and word of mouth. I didn't and still don't understand the love for that movie but it's there and I'm not going to be silly enough to ignore that and pretend that it disappointed.

My posts about IM2's boxoffice are thoughtful and researched. I look at the numbers for what they are, not what I want them to be. I'm fine with you not liking my fact based postings regarding the boxoffice but you aren't any different than the posters in the The Incredible Hulk boxoffice thread or the Kick-Ass thread. They claimed that the numbers were great for those movies and that they were raving success and they were wrong and are still wrong if they think that. Ofcourse the difference with Iron Man 2 is that it has actually made a s**tload of money but it's domestic numbers are still a disappointment and I will point that out because it's apart of it's boxoffice story.

Man do I hate when people who know nothing about the boxoffice talk about it.

 

[redfirebird2008]

IM2 made $12m more during opening weekend than Alice In Wonderland. It is now more than $15m behind Alice in total gross. If you subtract that $15m from Alice's total of $332m, you get $317m. That is the absolute ceiling for IM2 right now, but sadly it continues losing money each day to Alice. It will be very fortunate to reach $310m. Most likely total will be around $305m though.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

IM2 made $12m more during opening weekend than Alice In Wonderland. It is now more than $15m behind Alice in total gross. If you subtract that $15m from Alice's total of $332m, you get $317m. That is the absolute ceiling for IM2 right now, but sadly it continues losing money each day to Alice. It will be very fortunate to reach $310m. Most likely total will be around $305m though.

It's going to look better because of the M-day weekend but after that it's harsh drop city again. I'm still thinking 308mil for it's total but that all depends on how well it does in the weeks to come. I don't think that POP and Sex are going to be as much comp as Pirates 3 and Shrek 3 were for Spider-Man 3 so I'm open to it dropping 28-30% for its four day as opposed to the 34 to 36% drop I'm predicting right now.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Honestly I don't think IM2 has enough momentum to cross 300 million let alone match the first Iron Man's final gross.

 

[ElMariachi]

No, with my logic Star Trek = BB. The hype is there, the momentum is there. Star Trek is not a sequel that didn't surpass its predecessor. It's the stepping stone to greater things.

Star Trek's sequel will be expected to do better than Star Trek. Just as IM2 was expected to do better than IM1, and it may not do that.

I doubt it. Star Trek isn't Batman and you forget that it's coming out in the battle royale that is 2012. It is going to be followed by Batman 3, Spider Man reboot, and another Ice Age movie. When it comes out, Avengers, Men in Black 3, Twilight 4 part II, and Madagascar 3 are still going to be in theaters. I have a hard time believing it's going to --wait for it---jump to lightspeed---like TDK did.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Comparing IM2 to Alice in Wonderland is a bad comparison because Alice in Wonderland is a kids film. Kids films like that tend to have more longterm success, even if Shrek is right now doing poorly.