Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Anita18]

I doubt it. Star Trek isn't Batman and you forget that it's coming out in the battle royale that is 2012. It is going to be followed by Batman 3, Spider Man reboot, and another Ice Age movie. When it comes out, Avengers, Men in Black 3, Twilight 4 part II, and Madagascar 3 are still going to be in theaters. I have a hard time believing it's going to --wait for it---jump to lightspeed---like TDK did.

Sure we won't know if Star Trek's sequel will be a box office phenomenon like TDK was. But my point is that you can't compare Star Trek to TF2, for Pete's sake.

Right now they're in IM1's position, pre-IM2. Or BB's position, pre-TDK. There's all kinds of possibilities as to which direction the franchise will go.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Honestly I don't think IM2 has enough momentum to cross 300 million let alone match the first Iron Man's final gross.

I'm pretty sure it's going to scrap pass 300mil, even if the studio has to lie about it.

The Alice comparasion is just brillaint though because it pretty much shows that this movie has very little chance of making as much as the first one. If it's running behind Alice the way it is 330mil is out of the question and 320mil is going to be pretty damn hard to get. I'm still sticking to 308mil with an outside chance of 315mil if it has some late legs. I would be more than a little surprised if this movie outgrosses the first one no matter how it performs this holliday weekend.

 

[lespaul59]

If IM2 gets to 258mil before the weekend, which I think it should because that means that Wedensday and Thursday needs to only be 1.5mil on average. So lets say it makes the same thins weekend as last which would be 26mil that mean it should hit 285 mil on it's fourth weekend. I think the only way it doesn't tie IM is if it drops below last weekends total or it just loses steam after this weekend. I'll also add that it looks like it took Clash of the Titans till it's eighth week to drop below one mil. I'm not expert but I ahve a hard time seeing IM2 droping below 5mil a week ny it's 8th week. But with as little as I follow this stuff I really don't know what I'm talking about and I'm just guessing.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm pretty sure it's going to scrap pass 300mil, even if the studio has to lie about it.

The Alice comparasion is just brillaint though because it pretty much shows that this movie has very little chance of making as much as the first one. If it's running behind Alice the way it is 330mil is out of the question and 320mil is going to be pretty damn hard to get. I'm still sticking to 308mil with an outside chance of 315mil if it has some late legs. I would be more than a little surprised if this movie outgrosses the first one no matter how it performs this holliday weekend.

You do understand that IM2 is selling more tickets than Alice? You can hate the movie all you want, but since you are the only one who is using the box office to say people don't like the film, I really hope you understand that IM2 will have sold more tickets than Alice.

 

[dark_b]

You do understand that IM2 is selling more tickets than Alice? You can hate the movie all you want, but since you are the only one who is using the box office to say people don't like the film, I really hope you understand that IM2 will have sold more tickets than Alice.

can you copy/paste her post where she wrotte that?

 

[Evil Twin]

IM2 made $12m more during opening weekend than Alice In Wonderland. It is now more than $15m behind Alice in total gross. If you subtract that $15m from Alice's total of $332m, you get $317m. That is the absolute ceiling for IM2 right now, but sadly it continues losing money each day to Alice. It will be very fortunate to reach $310m. Most likely total will be around $305m though.

IM2 will close the gap a bit on Monday, but who knows after that. And, Alice hasn't quite quit playing yet, as it's very possible that Alice's final total could be around $340 million.

It will be interesting to see how many screens IM2 loses in the next few weeks. SATC2 and POP are opening on nearly 7,000 screens this weekend. And Get Him to the Greek, Marmaduke, Splice, and Killers the following weekend will probably have just as big a roll out combined. Those screens aren't all coming out of Letters to Juliet, Macgruber, Date Night, The Backup Plan, How to Train Your Dragon, Just Wright, and Nightmare on Elm Street.

 

[Evil Twin]

You do understand that IM2 is selling more tickets than Alice? You can hate the movie all you want, but since you are the only one who is using the box office to say people don't like the film, I really hope you understand that IM2 will have sold more tickets than Alice.

You do understand that the purpose of that comparison was to estimate box office ceiling, right? And that IM2 running behind a recent hit movie near the end of its run helps in that matter?

 

[hatebox]

Alice could very well overtake the Dark Knight's WW haul very soon. I don't really mind TDK being beaten, but of all the top 5 WW grossing films ever it's by far the biggest nonentity, and paves the way for more garbage, gimmicky 3D films.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^To be honest I had no desire to see it at all and everyone I know who was severly dissapointed with it.

 

[hatebox]

It seems to be one of those bizarre cases of 'fairly big in the US but randomly huge internationally'.

 

[Spider-X]

^To be honest I had no desire to see it at all and everyone I know who was severly dissapointed with it.

Alice in Wonderland isn't that great at all. There isn't much soul to it...the story just kinda happens and then the movie is over. The atmosphere is the only interesting thing about it. None of the characters are memorable at all. It's unfortunate it's made as much money as it has because, on the grand scale of things, it really doesn't deserve it.

 

[Tony Stark]

You do understand that the purpose of that comparison was to estimate box office ceiling, right? And that IM2 running behind a recent hit movie near the end of its run helps in that matter?

That's cool, no problem with that. I was mainly responding to ISS's agenda.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Oh man...I kinda liked Alice in Wonderland. I even bought the book afterward (of course the book is 100 times better...but still).

 

[souvlaki]

That's cool, no problem with that. I was mainly responding to ISS's agenda.

I'm really confused as to what agenda you are speaking of in the post you quoted. Their post was pretty straightforward. It's $17 million behind where Alice was at this same point during it's run, which gives it a ceiling of $317 million. Given that it's falling more and more every day saying that it may barely scrape by with $300 million is just as realistic (if not more so at this point) than saying it's going to catch up to the first film.

 

[ElMariachi]

Sure we won't know if Star Trek's sequel will be a box office phenomenon like TDK was. But my point is that you can't compare Star Trek to TF2, for Pete's sake.

Right now they're in IM1's position, pre-IM2. Or BB's position, pre-TDK. There's all kinds of possibilities as to which direction the franchise will go.

It's hard to say, but I don't see them making a huge leap like TDK did. Star Trek is still second fiddle to Star Wars in the minds of people. Which is sad because this last Star Trek movie was far better then any of the Star Wars prequels. I can see it doing Sherlock Holmes kind of money. Which is good. Like I have been saying all along, all we should want is for these movies to make enough money for them to make sequels. I don't care if these studios rake in the money like they did for Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, or TDK.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I'm really confused as to what agenda you are speaking of in the post you quoted. Their post was pretty straightforward. It's $17 million behind where Alice was at this same point during it's run, which gives it a ceiling of $317 million. Given that it's falling more and more every day saying that it may barely scrape by with $300 million is just as realistic (if not more so at this point) than saying it's going to catch up to the first film.

Exactly, its a very good point to make, at this point I think its difficult to predict its final domestic gross, but it wont stay in theatre's as long as IM1 did, thats for sure.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm really confused as to what agenda you are speaking of in the post you quoted. Their post was pretty straightforward. It's $17 million behind where Alice was at this same point during it's run, which gives it a ceiling of $317 million. Given that it's falling more and more every day saying that it may barely scrape by with $300 million is just as realistic (if not more so at this point) than saying it's going to catch up to the first film.

I'm not talking about the box office. Wheather it will pass the first or not, we'll see.

As for ISS's posts, I'll let them speak for themselves.

 

[lespaul59]

Personaly I think AIW is a bad comparison to IM2 because of the extra 3D money. I would also guess that AIW is gonna start dropping pretty good because the dvd/BR this Tuesday.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Posting ridiculous things about me having an agenda only makes you look silly Tony. My take on the numbers is perfectly sound and you have not once proven that you know anything about the boxoffice so excuse me if I don't listen to you.

Pointing out that IM2 is moving more tickets than Alice In Wonderland is pointless to my ultimate goal of guessing what IM2 might end with it. And thats all I'm doing right now Tony, I'm guessing/estimating what the movie will end with. I don't have some magic time machine to tell me the exact numbers so I'm following the movie's trend and other simular films trends. You are free to believe that the movie is still going to make 350 or 400mil but I'm just going to look at the facts. It's not reaching those goals because it's running behind a movie that has grossed 331+mil so far. It's also still running behind the 336.5mil Spider-Man 3 if you want a comicbook movie comparasion. It is slightly ahead of SM3 in the dailes though. Right now it still has quite a few dollars on Iron Man but it's drops are harsher so it's losing that lead everyday. IM2 obviously still has a chance of beating it's predecessor but it's going to be close because it's dropping much faster. Those aren't made up facts, just check boxoffice mojo. Hell, it's running behind Iron Man in the dailes again and it's weekends are millions lower than Iron Man's.

 

[TheVileOne]

LOL more stupid illegitimate, invalid, and irrelevant comparisons.

Iron Man 2 isn't touching $1 billion worldwide.

It's going to far surpass Iron Man in terms of worldwide gross. And it will be probably the second most popular comic book superhero franchise of all time only second to Spider-man.

I don't get all this conspiracy theory ****. Yes the movie was way more frontloaded than Iron Man. But I mean, most sequels behave this way.

Look at Wolverine. Look at the Fantastic Four movies. Don't make me laugh. Iron Man is clearly a cut above all of that. This is a billion dollar franchise. Wolverine can't pull these numbers.

I'll be shocked if X-men First Class does better than $140 million.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's hard to say, but I don't see them making a huge leap like TDK did. Star Trek is still second fiddle to Star Wars in the minds of people. Which is sad because this last Star Trek movie was far better then any of the Star Wars prequels. I can see it doing Sherlock Holmes kind of money. Which is good. Like I have been saying all along, all we should want is for these movies to make enough money for them to make sequels. I don't care if these studios rake in the money like they did for Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, or TDK.

Star Wars is definitely more of an international hit than Stark Trek. Star Trek did very poorly world wide, which is odd, because Star Trek is the one series that shows all races and ethnic groups in a positive light. I'm not sure Star Wars really did that. Maybe Billy Dee Williams, but that's about all I can think of.

I think any new Star Trek film will do terrific domestically and horrible internationally.

I also agree with you that Star Trek was lightyears beyone any of the Star Wars prequels, no pun intended.

 

[Tony Stark]

Posting ridiculous things about me having an agenda only makes you look silly Tony. My take on the numbers is perfectly sound and you have not once proven that you know anything about the boxoffice so excuse me if I don't listen to you.

Pointing out that IM2 is moving more tickets than Alice In Wonderland is pointless to my ultimate goal of guessing what IM2 might end with it. And thats all I'm doing right now Tony, I'm guessing/estimating what the movie will end with. I don't have some magic time machine to tell me the exact numbers so I'm following the movie's trend and other simular films trends. You are free to believe that the movie is still going to make 350 or 400mil but I'm just going to look at the facts. It's not reaching those goals because it's running behind a movie that has grossed 331+mil so far. It's also still running behind the 336.5mil Spider-Man 3 if you want a comicbook movie comparasion. It is slightly ahead of SM3 in the dailes though. Right now it still has quite a few dollars on Iron Man but it's drops are harsher so it's losing that lead everyday. IM2 obviously still has a chance of beating it's predecessor but it's going to be close because it's dropping much faster. Those aren't made up facts, just check boxoffice mojo. Hell, it's running behind Iron Man in the dailes again and it's weekends are millions lower than Iron Man's.

I know what it's making. The point is, that you've been using the BO numbers as your battle axe to bash the film, and that's pretty well documented from your posts.

Like I sad on the review thread. No one cares that you don't like the movie, but when you complain when people make positive comparisons to other movies you complain, but it's perfectly OK for you to compare to other movies in a negative light.

 

[TheVileOne]

The movie is doing well and people for some reason are upset and saying all sorts of nonsense. Not all movies perform the say way.

Dead Man's Chest was pretty reviled yet look how it did. Does that invalidate Curse of the Black Pearl?

 

[Anita18]

Jesus H Christ on a pogo stick, will y'all please lay off of ISS and anyone who's supposedly "bashing" the film through its somewhat-disappointing box office performance?

Here are the facts: IM2 was officially tracking for a $150-$160 million OW, and it was obvious that Paramount was gunning for the record because it opened in the most theaters ever. It missed that by almost $30 million.

People everywhere (the trades, the BO forums) were predicting that it would make $400 million easy. It's been having to work to get to $300 million. Absolutely nobody thought that it would go under IM1 domestically, but that's pretty much a given now.

So....that there be the background and the expectations of what we're working with here. Nobody's saying that IM2 is a bomb. It isn't. It's doing very well in absolute numbers, but everyone simply expected more out of it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

And please point to the post in which I called Iron Man 2 a flop. I'm waiting...

Nobody was expecting a billion dollars so thats just hyperbole. Anyway I've already said that I doubt that Marvel is crying over a movie that is going to make over 600mil but it's still having bad legs and it's word of mouth still isn't as good as Iron Man's and that will undoubtedly hurt Iron Man 3 at the boxoffice.

My boxoffice projections/comparasions are completely sound and anybody who says otherwise doesn't know what the hell they are talking about.

I never had respect for Tony Stark, because frankly I don't even remember any of my run ins with him but I'm definitely begining to lose respect for some other poster(s) I know. I mean, I understand if a complete non entity like Tony Stark believes I'm some evil harpy who doesn't know what I'm talking about but the other guy who've I ran into before suddenly believing that I have some evil intentions is just confusing.

I understand disagreeing with me and I'm fine with that but to question my intentions when I've always fairly assessed (well, my Watchmen assessment left alot to be desired) the boxoffice regardless of my like or dislike is just more than a little surprising. Oh well. It sounds like I'm whining about being picked on so I'm going to stop. I'm a big girl, I can take the heat.

EDIT: Thanks Anita but you aren't going to get through to them. I'm the evil she-witch who has called Iron Man 2 the biggest bomb of all time!