Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Spider-Fan]

I don't think you're calling it a bomb or a disaster (I agree some people are getting a bit defensive about IM2 way too much...case in point the debate I had when I said Black Widow was useless to the film...I got hate for that ), but I disagree on how much Marvel has to be disappointed considering they have no real A-list properties. I agree they're likely disappointed, but I still think they can't complain really.

 

[lespaul59]

Exactly, its a very good point to make, at this point I think its difficult to predict its final domestic gross, but it wont stay in theatre's as long as IM1 did, thats for sure.

This is something else I don't think I've seen talkied about in the discussion. IM was in theaters for 5 months give it an average of $15,900,000 average per week. IM2 which is getting read to hit it's forth weekend and is averaging is averaging $83mil per week. Granted it's not gonna be in theaters for 20 weeks but the fact is it's only gonna have to average $20mil over 16weeks or $27mil ove 12 weeks to hit $320mil. So as I said before it's gonna have to do some major dropping to fall under either aveage in my opinion. But also like I said before I think it all depends on what happens this weekend.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I said that I doubt that they are terribly disappointed because the movie is going to gross 600mil at the boxoffice. Like all movies though, this movie had expectations boxofficewise and movie wise among theater goers and critics. If this movie is met with a meh and CA and Thor tank (I don't think that both of them will tank) then the future product will be hurt boxoffice wise. Stuff like Iron Man 3 and The Avengers. The recpetion of this movie is important to the studio.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think IM2 won't have so much of an effect on Avengers. I think IM's fanbase was built, and him being in Avengers even after a disappointing to some IM2 would still make those people come back just because the Avengers idea is very unique and hard to pass up if you were a fan. I think the Thor and Cap solos are much more vital, cause they have to build their own bases and get some appeal from the IM base since IM won't be the only selling point of Avengers. I think IM2 is much more likely to effect IM3 than Avengers, however, I actually think Avengers will effect IM3 more than IM2. I think IM2 could end up being a bit of a lost film when all is said and done.

 

[TheVileOne]

The Incredible Hulk was a legit meh and it didn't hurt this movie so whatever.

 

[dark_b]

And please point to the post in which I called Iron Man 2 a flop. I'm waiting...

Nobody was expecting a billion dollars so thats just hyperbole. Anyway I've already said that I doubt that Marvel is crying over a movie that is going to make over 600mil but it's still having bad legs and it's word of mouth still isn't as good as Iron Man's and that will undoubtedly hurt Iron Man 3 at the boxoffice.

My boxoffice projections/comparasions are completely sound and anybody who says otherwise doesn't know what the hell they are talking about.

I never had respect for Tony Stark, because frankly I don't even remember any of my run ins with him but I'm definitely begining to lose respect for some other poster(s) I know. I mean, I understand if a complete non entity like Tony Stark believes I'm some evil harpy who doesn't know what I'm talking about but the other guy who've I ran into before suddenly believing that I have some evil intentions is just confusing.

I understand disagreeing with me and I'm fine with that but to question my intentions when I've always fairly assessed (well, my Watchmen assessment left alot to be desired) the boxoffice regardless of my like or dislike is just more than a little surprising. Oh well. It sounds like I'm whining about being picked on so I'm going to stop. I'm a big girl, I can take the heat.

EDIT: Thanks Anita but you aren't going to get through to them. I'm the evil she-witch who has called Iron Man 2 the biggest bomb of all time!

in the context of your post you didnt think that it will be the biggest bomb of all time.

but you will see in 3-4 weeks Tony will writte how you said this. the guy is a funny.........

 

[dark_b]

The Incredible Hulk was a legit meh and it didn't hurt this movie so whatever.

why would TIH hurt IM2 when IM2 is a sequel to IM .

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If IM2 doesn't cross 300 million it will look bad and won't bode well for future Marvel releases, namely Thor and Captain America.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

(I agree some people are getting a bit defensive about IM2 way too much...case in point the debate I had when I said Black Widow was useless to the film...I got hate for that ),

you got hate for that?



I thought everyone pretty much agreed that she was only there for sex appeal and nothing more. She was mis-casted and mis-used

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I said that I doubt that they are terribly disappointed because the movie is going to gross 600mil at the boxoffice. Like all movies though, this movie had expectations boxofficewise and movie wise among theater goers and critics. If this movie is met with a meh and CA and Thor tank (I don't think that both of them will tank) then the future product will be hurt boxoffice wise. Stuff like Iron Man 3 and The Avengers. The recpetion of this movie is important to the studio.

None of us know what the BO expectations of this movie was. Marvel didn't come out and say "we expect this to make 1 billion dollars" [/Dr Evil]

600 million is not peanuts, they will be happy with that.

 

[dark_b]

None of us know what the BO expectations of this movie was. Marvel didn't come out and say "we expect this to make 1 billion dollars" [/Dr Evil]

600 million is not peanuts, they will be happy with that.

600 is a lot of money.

fact is that they expected more.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Who says they did? None of us can presume anything like that.

Would they be happy with more? OF COURSE! Who wouldn't? But i think "expect" is the wrong word to use.

 

[danoyse]

That's cool, no problem with that. I was mainly responding to ISS's agenda.

She doesn't have an agenda. Knock that talk off.

 

[TheVileOne]

This movie will make more than $600 million. It will make more than $300 million domestic.

It'll be at about $275 million after the holiday weekend and that's just the 4th weekend. It's making over $300 million so people need to stop spreading misinformation. The question is simply will it make over $320 million and surpass Iron Man's domestic take. Which could still happen. We'll see. At this rate it should also probably do over $650 million worldwide.

 

[dark_b]

Who says they did? None of us can presume anything like that.

Would they be happy with more? OF COURSE! Who wouldn't? But i think "expect" is the wrong word to use.

Ace you dont need to understand this because you dont care about the BO.

some are experts about cars ,some about comics and asome about the movie box office.

and the ones who know how this works and know how much money IM made in 2008 know that they expected more.

again its FACT that they expected more.

 

[Tony Stark]

They may have, but I don't see alot of films this summer that are going to surpass it. The only one that jumps out is TS3, and that's got the 3D factor, so it may gross more, but I don't know if it will sell more tickets.

Other than that, maybe A-team, depending on how things turn out. There's alot of crap movies coming out this summer, and whatever you thought of IM2, the fact is it's the only big budget summer film to have a positive rating with the critics, so far.

 

[Spider-Fan]

you got hate for that?



I thought everyone pretty much agreed that she was only there for sex appeal and nothing more. She was mis-casted and mis-used

I got into a HUGE debate on that with Earle...he gave me a lot of crap for saying that (though it is true, lol).

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Ace you dont need to understand this because you dont care about the BO.

some are experts about cars ,some about comics and asome about the movie box office.

and the ones who know how this works and know how much money IM made in 2008 know that they expected more.

again its FACT that they expected more.

Yea but no one on here is box office experts...

Just because people follow the results and like talking about them, it doesn't make them experts. They might think they are, but they ain't. That's FACT my friend.

Nothing is fact until someone on the inside ie someone from Marvel comes out and says so.

And i don't see how IM 1 comes into it. SM2 made less than the first one, but is widely regarded as a much better film. The way box office results work isn't as simple as "Oh well the first film did well, the second will do even better!". Nothing in life is as straight forward as that.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Jesus H Christ on a pogo stick, will y'all please lay off of ISS and anyone who's supposedly "bashing" the film through its somewhat-disappointing box office performance?

Here are the facts: IM2 was officially tracking for a $150-$160 million OW, and it was obvious that Paramount was gunning for the record because it opened in the most theaters ever. It missed that by almost $30 million.

People everywhere (the trades, the BO forums) were predicting that it would make $400 million easy. It's been having to work to get to $300 million. Absolutely nobody thought that it would go under IM1 domestically, but that's pretty much a given now.

So....that there be the background and the expectations of what we're working with here. Nobody's saying that IM2 is a bomb. It isn't. It's doing very well in absolute numbers, but everyone simply expected more out of it.

There's the problem. "Tracking", "predicting", and "expected".

That's how you turn a fantastic success (over 500 million in 3 weeks) into a "disappointment", "underperforming", or even "utter failure".

Those using BO to "prove" IM2 isn't a good movie need to pay close attention to that "tracking" part. A whole lot of people got this very wrong. Just because they did a horrible job of predicting doesn't mean IM2 has to suffer for it. The quality of the movie has nothing to do with what happened opening weekend. So because someone, somewhere claimed this "should have" done 150 million....that turns 128 million OW into a "disappointment". Nevermind the fact that happens to be the 5th biggest OW ever. This coming from a 2nd tier super hero (amazing how quickly we forgot that one).

Somehow, a sports mentality has infected this. Either you set the all time record or "you suck". (i.e. Buffalo Bills)

Absurd.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

^ Completely agreed. That's why i don't get involved in this BO talk. Because it's a load of conjecture and bollox 99% of the time.

Most people try and use BO to justify their opinion on a film, either positively or negatively, even if they don't know they are doing it themselves. I really can't stand that mentality.

 

[Anita18]

There's the problem. "Tracking", "predicting", and "expected".

That's how you turn a fantastic success (over 500 million in 3 weeks) into a "disappointment", "underperforming", or even "utter failure".

Those using BO to "prove" IM2 isn't a good movie need to pay close attention to that "tracking" part. A whole lot of people got this very wrong. Just because they did a horrible job of predicting doesn't mean IM2 has to suffer for it. The quality of the movie has nothing to do with what happened opening weekend. So because someone, somewhere claimed this "should have" done 150 million....that turns 128 million OW into a "disappointment". Nevermind the fact that happens to be the 5th biggest OW ever. This coming from a 2nd tier super hero (amazing how quickly we forgot that one).

Somehow, a sports mentality has infected this. Either you set the all time record or "you suck". (i.e. Buffalo Bills)

Absurd.

Eh, other people might look at this whole thing in different ways. A poor box office performance doesn't mean a poor movie. Or vice versa. I mean, look at the TF franchise.

And tracking, predictions, and expectations are very important, at least from a business perspective. (For fans, it's just fun. ) Companies have to be able to accurately forecast their income so they can keep all the cogs moving. IM2 certainly won't take down Marvel or Paramount, not in the least, but The Golden Compass bombing was pretty much the last straw for New Line.

What Marvel/Paramount mostly need to take from this is how to adjust their expectations accordingly so the tracking doesn't deviate so much from the actuals. And make sure to rein in their budgets in case.

 

[BestGirl]

I don't think you're calling it a bomb or a disaster (I agree some people are getting a bit defensive about IM2 way too much...case in point the debate I had when I said Black Widow was useless to the film...I got hate for that ), but I disagree on how much Marvel has to be disappointed considering they have no real A-list properties. I agree they're likely disappointed, but I still think they can't complain really.

Heh, so true. The way some people are carrying on you'd think IM2 was a great masterpiece instead of a significantly flawed, but still entertaining movie.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Eh, other people might look at this whole thing in different ways. A poor box office performance doesn't mean a poor movie. Or vice versa. I mean, look at the TF franchise.

And tracking, predictions, and expectations are very important, at least from a business perspective. (For fans, it's just fun. ) Companies have to be able to accurately forecast their income so they can keep all the cogs moving. IM2 certainly won't take down Marvel or Paramount, not in the least, but The Golden Compass bombing was pretty much the last straw for New Line.

What Marvel/Paramount mostly need to take from this is how to adjust their expectations accordingly so the tracking doesn't deviate so much from the actuals. And make sure to rein in their budgets in case.

We don't know for sure what Marvel/Paramount were expecting though.

And why do they need to reign in their budgets? They have still made a hefty profit with this film. And it will continue to rise when you consider DVD/Blu Ray sales and merchandizing.

 

[Anita18]

We don't know for sure what Marvel/Paramount were expecting though.

And why do they need to reign in their budgets? They have still made a hefty profit with this film. And it will continue to rise when you consider DVD/Blu Ray sales and merchandizing.

Of course not. But we can safely surmise that they at least wanted the OW record, or else they wouldn't have bothered putting in the most theaters ever, with as many screens as SM3.

And of course IM2 will make a hefty sum for them. It's just that they can't get too carried away with multiple movies having $250 million budgets without some real box office potential to back it up. I'm thinking about the future, is all.

 

[danoyse]

Other than that, maybe A-team, depending on how things turn out. There's alot of crap movies coming out this summer, and whatever you thought of IM2, the fact is it's the only big budget summer film to have a positive rating with the critics, so far.

I doubt the A-Team will have that kind of success, even if it does well.