Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[TheVileOne]

4 day estimates put it at almost $280 million and $20 million for the 4 day weekend. I suspect it can top out at around $325 million.

 

[Iron_Stark]

well maybe airbender will be this years big summer hit.

if disney would have released Tron Legacy in 3D next week it would make 450 million dollars domestic easy. This summer just seems to be missing something.

Not likely on either movie.

Airbender is coming out the same weekend as Twilight, it's going to end up getting it's ass kicked by twilight.

Tron Legacy making 450 million is laughable.

 

[FaT_tONle]

The summer is missing that late early to mid summer proven franchise. All 2009 had was a massive TF movie with nothing in its way with outside of Potter. I guess Twilight sort of takes the Potter mantle at the moment. Trek did decent damage last year, but once Salvation severely underachieved, people were just about ready to call it a summer as far as movies were concerned. Then Hangover stole the show in June and held the fort down for a good while. That's why I am thinking A-Team can do similar damage as a summer movie to kill off some time. Airbender actually looks like the heavy weight this year as a family movie outside of Toy Story 3. Twilight will do its numbers, but like HP, it's not gonna draw past its threshold just because it is a summer release. Probably hurts it more than it helps.

 

[danoyse]

PoP was this years Terminator Salvation, just like I said it would be. SATC2 had a decent showing, but how on earth could a movie like that have a 100 mil dollar budget?

They probably spent most of that on wardrobe.

I saw SATC2 this afternoon (first movie was a little better, but I still liked it), and for a noon show on what should have been a perfect pool day, I was surprised to find the theater almost full. But I wasn't surprised that there was only one guy in the entire theater.

They still had IM2 in one of the bigger theaters.

And yeah, I think Toy Story is going to be the big film this summer. Even my nephew is excited for it, and he's only 2-1/2.

 

[Spider-Vader]

Aren't little kids supposed to me the most excited for TS3? I am, but still...

 

[Crook]

The little kids that watched the living hell outta the first two movies are in their 20s now. Some may even be approaching 30. The film directly appeals to as many as three generations, which is huge. Coupled with the 3D aspect, it's gonna rape the competition.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least one or two sleeper hits during the season as well. Hollywood hasn't been faring well lately, which definitely paves the way for the underdogs to reap the benefit if they can provide something that as been lacking for the audiences. I'm looking right at TLA and Inception.

 

[Tony Stark]

I have mixed feelings about TS3. Part of me thinks it looks pretty good, and the other half thinks Pixar may have played that card one too many times.

 

[Anita18]

I have mixed feelings about TS3. Part of me thinks it looks pretty good, and the other half thinks Pixar may have played that card one too many times.

One thing they have going for them is that they never repeat themselves. TS2 was COMPLETELY different from TS1. TS3 probably won't feel like its predecessors, which is a huge plus.

 

[Marvin]

Not likely on either movie.

Airbender is coming out the same weekend as Twilight, it's going to end up getting it's ass kicked by twilight.

Tron Legacy making 450 million is laughable.

wow, that sucks for airbender. If only he came out now, but I can see how paramount would want to give IM some much needed room.

don't underestimate tron.

 

[Tony Stark]

I didn't realize Airbender was out the same weekend as Eclipse. That was definitely a bad move on the studios part if they knew that. However considering New Moon's 70% collapse in week two, if it gets good WOM Airbender could have a good second week. It sort of like how Madagascar opened no. 2 agaisnt Star Wars, but in it's second weekend ended up at no. 1.

Also I think Tron could be a suprise hit. It really looks beautiful, and it's been so long since the first movie came out, wheather it's a pseudo sequel or a reboot, no one will much care. It certainly pays hommage to the original in looks and feel, but with 2010 CGI behind it, and in 3D it could look fabulous.

However Tron is a December release, and won't have any effect on anything this summer.

 

[Raiden]

The problem with expectations is not only analysts but fanboys themselves often blow them out of proportion and then call disappointment even when the movie delivers great numbers. No way a studio will consider over 300m in the domestic BO and over 600m worldwide an underperforming result. IM2 is making tons of money for the studio and more than ensures another sequel. Of course it wasn´t considered as great as the first and is dropping at a faster pace in the domestic market, but there´s nothing too wrong that can´t be fixed in the next sequel.

I agree, and let's not forget that Iron Man is still a B-list superhero, and had nowhere the same household recognition as Superman, Spider-man, and Batman before the movie came out. For IM to gross this much for a sequel should qualify it as a success, and definitely ensures it a second sequel after The Avengers. As much as I like IM2, though, I do think there's still room for improvement, and I expect Favearu (who is very much aware of fan reaction for his movies) to make adjustments in IM3 and make it better.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I expect Favearu (who is very much aware of fan reaction for his movies) to make adjustments in IM3 and make it better.

I don't think Favreau has full control of it. You can see Marvel's fingerprints all over IM2.

 

[Tony Stark]

With a few notable exceptions like Star Wars and George Lucas, very few directors have complete control over their films, so of course Marvel/Kevin Fiege has a say in the creative process.

 

[terry78]

The only reason WB and DC gave Singer and Nolan so much leeway is because their properties have been stuck in limbo so long they don't have any choice.

 

[dark_b]

I agree, and let's not forget that Iron Man is still a B-list superhero, and had nowhere the same household recognition as Superman, Spider-man, and Batman before the movie came out. For IM to gross this much for a sequel should qualify it as a success, and definitely ensures it a second sequel after The Avengers. As much as I like IM2, though, I do think there's still room for improvement, and I expect Favearu (who is very much aware of fan reaction for his movies) to make adjustments in IM3 and make it better.

people really like ot throw this out every week?

that was true in 2008 . this is 2010. this is the sequel to a good first movie that was liked and had a lot of promotion.in 2010 IM is not anymore an unknown superhero.

 

[dark_b]

The only reason WB and DC gave Singer and Nolan so much leeway is because their properties have been stuck in limbo so long they don't have any choice.

i think they gave them so much control because they had faith in them based on their previous movie.

with Singer X2 and with Nolan Batman begins.


if WB would in 2005 think more about the masses and more about making a modern superman movie we would get a sequel in 2009 IMO.

 

[Tony Stark]

The only reason WB and DC gave Singer and Nolan so much leeway is because their properties have been stuck in limbo so long they don't have any choice.

Agreed, and WB had been trying to relaunch Superman for years and failed so there was even more pressure to give the reigns to Singer.

WB traditionally has not cared much about the DC franchise. The original Superman movie was filmed as a negative pickup, meaning the studio didn't put up a dime, until the project was completed. The Salkinds pretty much financed the first two films on their own dime. This led to the pressure with Donner, because they were trying to film the first two movies simultaneously, and they were running way over budget. I think WB kicked in at the last moment so they could get a print put together for release.

In any case, with all of the Marvel films made so far, either through Marvel Studios or through other venues, have all had input from Marvel. Favreau probably had more freedom than alot of the other directors, especially the ones at Fox.

 

[redfirebird2008]

WB traditionally has not cared much about the DC franchise. The original Superman movie was filmed as a negative pickup, meaning the studio didn't put up a dime, until the project was completed. The Salkinds pretty much financed the first two films on their own dime. This led to the pressure with Donner, because they were trying to film the first two movies simultaneously, and they were running way over budget. I think WB kicked in at the last moment so they could get a print put together for release.

And how do you explain the enormous amount of money they dumped into Batman '89? That movie had the biggest and most saturated marketing campaign ever by far at the time it came out. It was the pioneer for how summer tentpoles are marketed today. Not only was the marketing campaign huge, but the production budget was enormous as well at the time. There was a lot of risk from WB, especially given the dark nature of the film.

 

[Tony Stark]

Batman '89 was an example of where the studio got involved and they even nixed some of Burton's creative ideas (for the better IMO), to make the film more akin to the traditional Batman. When Batman Returns came out they gave Burton more creative control, and IMO it turned out to be a failure.

Outside of that one film WB has had little involvement with say so in the projects to their own detrament, with the notable exceptions of Begins and TDK.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Outside of that one film WB has had little involvement with say so in the projects to their own detrament, with the notable exceptions of Begins and TDK.

They had plenty of say-so with BF and B&R. They wanted to make it lighter in tone to sell more toys. And that's exactly what Schumacher gave them.

I think their fingerprints were all over the Katie Holmes casting. Just so happens she was the only person to tryout for a lead female role in a Batman movie when she is also starring in a WB TV show? Yeah right, WB. I was born at night but not last night.

 

[souvlaki]

The problem with expectations is not only analysts but fanboys themselves often blow them out of proportion and then call disappointment even when the movie delivers great numbers. No way a studio will consider over 300m in the domestic BO and over 600m worldwide an underperforming result. IM2 is making tons of money for the studio and more than ensures another sequel. Of course it wasn´t considered as great as the first and is dropping at a faster pace in the domestic market, but there´s nothing too wrong that can´t be fixed in the next sequel.

They can and they will look at it as an underperforming movie. It's quite simple. The first movie cost $40 Million less than the second movie. You don't just throw $40 Million more at a movie and expect the same result as the first film. It's not a bomb by any stretch of the imagination, but how anyone can look at the increase in budget and theater count and say that the movie isn't performing below the expectations of the studio I have no clue.

 

[ultimatefan]

They can and they will look at it as an underperforming movie. It's quite simple. The first movie cost $40 Million less than the second movie. You don't just throw $40 Million more at a movie and expect the same result as the first film. It's not a bomb by any stretch of the imagination, but how anyone can look at the increase in budget and say that the movie isn't performing below the expectations of the studio I have no clue.

And it´s gonna make more money than the first worldwide, it´s almost tied up with the first after only three weekends. It should at least make up for the budget increase, not to mention it had a lot more tie-ins that bring more revenue to the studio.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

After it's better than expected M-Day weekend (it was helped by Persia bombing and it will be helped next weekend because nothing is coming out) it will difinately make more than my 308 projection. 318 to 328ish looks like it's in the cards now.

This Summer has been so freakin boring at the boxoffice. SATC 2 opened far lower than alot of people thought. It did less in five days than the first did in three. I wouldn't be surprised if it made less than 100mil. Persia bombed in it's opening weekend...unless it has long legs, which I am doubting right now but we well see. Although Shrek has had a boost from M-Day weekend it's still grossing less than Shrek 3 and it's still sold far less tickets. As I said though, the money matters more to the studio. Nothing has performed above expectations.

 

[Crook]

Or within, for that matter.

 

[Tony Stark]

They had plenty of say-so with BF and B&R. They wanted to make it lighter in tone to sell more toys. And that's exactly what Schumacher gave them.

I think their fingerprints were all over the Katie Holmes casting. Just so happens she was the only person to tryout for a lead female role in a Batman movie when she is also starring in a WB TV show? Yeah right, WB. I was born at night but not last night.

I've said before that Holmes got the role because of her relationship with the WB. That stuff happens all the time in Hollywood.

I actually thought she did very well in the role, it was unfortunate that the Tom Cruise stuff was all anyone talked about.

We're getting pretty off track here as the original point was that WB had little to nothing to do with the Superman franchise, until Singer's film.