Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[lespaul59]

There's the problem. "Tracking", "predicting", and "expected".

That's how you turn a fantastic success (over 500 million in 3 weeks) into a "disappointment", "underperforming", or even "utter failure".

Those using BO to "prove" IM2 isn't a good movie need to pay close attention to that "tracking" part. A whole lot of people got this very wrong. Just because they did a horrible job of predicting doesn't mean IM2 has to suffer for it. The quality of the movie has nothing to do with what happened opening weekend. So because someone, somewhere claimed this "should have" done 150 million....that turns 128 million OW into a "disappointment". Nevermind the fact that happens to be the 5th biggest OW ever. This coming from a 2nd tier super hero (amazing how quickly we forgot that one).

Somehow, a sports mentality has infected this. Either you set the all time record or "you suck". (i.e. Buffalo Bills)

Absurd.

I agree, numbers can be pretty much used to say a lot of things.

Eh, other people might look at this whole thing in different ways. A poor box office performance doesn't mean a poor movie. Or vice versa. I mean, look at the TF franchise.

And tracking, predictions, and expectations are very important, at least from a business perspective. (For fans, it's just fun. ) Companies have to be able to accurately forecast their income so they can keep all the cogs moving. IM2 certainly won't take down Marvel or Paramount, not in the least, but The Golden Compass bombing was pretty much the last straw for New Line.

What Marvel/Paramount mostly need to take from this is how to adjust their expectations accordingly so the tracking doesn't deviate so much from the actuals. And make sure to rein in their budgets in case.

Exactly. I still believe this weekend will give a very good indication of where IM2 is gonna end up at.

 

[Tony Stark]

I doubt the A-Team will have that kind of success, even if it does well.

You're probably right, but if the movie gets good critical reviews I could see it as a suprise hit, fueled by guys like me who grew up on the 80's show, plus getting a stellar cast.

Most likely, it looks like it could do mid 200's. I'm curious what kind of production budget it had.

 

[TheVileOne]

A-Team isn't going to make over $300 million like Iron Man 2.

 

[hatebox]

Prince of Persia is estimated to get $42m for the weekend, although that is a very early estimate. Considereing most analysts predicted around $50m that'll be a disappointment. IM2 looks to have done well from the holiday perod with the $18m predictions on course to hold true.

 

[TheVileOne]

That will put Iron Man 2 above $275 million after this weekend. As I predicted.

Just to put things in perspective, after this weekend, Iron man 2 will only need like another $40 million to surpass Iron Man domestically.

 

[ironman_rick]

No iconic villain (like joker in TDK or venom in SM3).....300(+) domestic gross can be classifield as an success.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Weekend estimate is $16 million for the 3-day. Very nice. That's a 40% drop, which is 10% ahead of SM3's 50% drop over Memorial Day weekend. It's finally starting to sprout some legs.

 

[Tony Stark]

Shrek had a nice recovery, after a dissapointing opening, but the numbers are a little deceptive because of the 3D boost.

PoP was this years Terminator Salvation, just like I said it would be. SATC2 had a decent showing, but how on earth could a movie like that have a 100 mil dollar budget?

IM will be close to 280 after Tuesday. I think next weekend it should have another strong week as there's really nothing to come out next week and I expect SATC2 to have a big drop. PoP will probably remain strong, because it didn't open big,

JH looks like another huge bomb, so I think the next blockbuster we will see, will be Eclipse.

 

[hatebox]

It's interesting that all the big summer movies have so far opened a little (or a lot) below expectations - even SITC2 fizzled out after a big first day. We seem to still be waiting for the first truly massive smash of the season.

 

[LostSon88]

Oh c'mon now, we already know what THE movie of the summer is going to be...

I think it'd be a very safe assumption to say that this is the one movie this summer that will not have to worry about underperforming at the box office...

 

[TheVileOne]

To put things even more in perspective, Iron Man 2 will likely make over $300 million in less than 6 weeks. $650 million worldwide is pretty much definite at this point.

Once again, the only other comic book superhero franchises to pull better numbers are Spider-man or Batman.

 

[lespaul59]

Oh c'mon now, we already know what THE movie of the summer is going to be...

I think it'd be a very safe assumption to say that this is the one movie this summer that will not have to worry about underperforming at the box office...

I have to agree. Even I want to go see this, I saw the first two when they where in theaters so why not pull the hat trick. Isn't TS3 also gonna be in 3D? I was surprised to read that this Memorial Day weekend is gonna be the lowest grossing in nine years while also being the in terms of estimated attendance in 15 years(Box Office Mojo). I was expecting good number for all of the top 5 movies.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Marvel release the Thor pic dammit. This will boost people interest on any Marvel movie, including Iron Man 2.

 

[dark_b]

Marvel release the Thor pic dammit. This will boost people interest on any Marvel movie, including Iron Man 2.

you think if they realese the Thor pic that IM2 will make more money that week?

 

[ironman_rick]

I have to agree. Even I want to go see this, I saw the first two when they where in theaters so why not pull the hat trick. Isn't TS3 also gonna be in 3D? I was surprised to read that this Memorial Day weekend is gonna be the lowest grossing in nine years while also being the in terms of estimated attendance in 15 years(Box Office Mojo). I was expecting good number for all of the top 5 movies.

Precisely..... apart from alice (and avatar)...which other movie was a runaway success this year ? Date nite is struggling to hit 100 million. COTT would have made $200 million if it was released last year.

Its just a slow year summer this year (seems that ppl are not that into movies this summer).

So 300(+) gross for ironman2 is very good indeed.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

you think if they realese the Thor pic that IM2 will make more money that week?

I fail to understand that logic either

 

[hatebox]

Precisely..... apart from alice (and avatar)...which other movie was a runaway success this year ? Date nite is struggling to hit 100 million. COTT would have made $200 million if it was released last year.

Its just a slow year summer this year (seems that ppl are not that into movies this summer).

So 300(+) gross for ironman2 is very good indeed.

I doubt it's that the auidience is less into cinema going this year. The more obvious answer is that the movies just haven't been especially appealing so far. There's yet to be anything that's even come close to touching opening records or had sleeper hit status, Alice's foreign performance aside. This summer IM2 seems to be the best of a bad bunch at present, though for the moment I maintain that it's still performing slightly below expectations - which seems to be symptomatic of the early season.

 

[Marvin]

another summer in which iron man is followed by duds at the box office

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Everyone's saving money for 2011/2012

I've dubbed those 2 years "movie mania".

 

[Marvin]

well maybe airbender will be this years big summer hit.

 

[Marvin]

if disney would have released Tron Legacy in 3D next week it would make 450 million dollars domestic easy. This summer just seems to be missing something.

 

[ultimatefan]

IM2 is a lock to make 300m domestic and 600m worldwide. In the domestic market I´m not 100% sure it´s gonna surpass the first cuz it´s dropping at a faster pace, it´s gonna be a photo finish.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Oh c'mon now, we already know what THE movie of the summer is going to be...

I think it'd be a very safe assumption to say that this is the one movie this summer that will not have to worry about underperforming at the box office...

I'm even more nerdy about Pixar movies than comic book movies, so that's my #1 this summer.

If it "under-performs" (whatever that means these days) we'll know there is a problem. I know I've cut way back on movies this year myself (in money saving mode due to a job situation).

 

[LostSon88]

This is like the one movie I know EVERYONE can't wait to see. TS3 has that rare gift in that it'll appeal to pretty much everyone...

-Its a sequel of one fantastic franchise.
-It has a built in fanbase of ALL ages.
-Its freakin' PIXAR, the definition of quality.
-A-list actors as talent.

and the biggest thing...

IT LOOKS GREAT.

There is NO WAY TS3 will underperform this summer. And seriously, after IM2 this (for me) is the only real last big movie of the season.

 

[ultimatefan]

The problem with expectations is not only analysts but fanboys themselves often blow them out of proportion and then call disappointment even when the movie delivers great numbers. No way a studio will consider over 300m in the domestic BO and over 600m worldwide an underperforming result. IM2 is making tons of money for the studio and more than ensures another sequel. Of course it wasn´t considered as great as the first and is dropping at a faster pace in the domestic market, but there´s nothing too wrong that can´t be fixed in the next sequel.