Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Superhero 101]

I was surprised that TOY STORY 3 is projected to have a smaller opening weekend that IRON MAN 2. Looks like Marvel is still the champ of this summer, thus far...

Until Eclipse opens

 

[Tony Stark]

I was surprised that TOY STORY 3 is projected to have a smaller opening weekend that IRON MAN 2. Looks like Marvel is still the champ of this summer, thus far...

I stated weeks ago that chances are it wouldn't. I was flamed pretty hard for it, but look you take away the 3D from this movie and the opening was run of the mill for Pixar. Finding Nemo and Incredibles remain the two powerhouses for Pixar.

Now this is not to knock TS3, which from all I hear is a fantastic movie. Good for Pixar, but merely to point out what a bunch of crap the so called box office "experts" on this and on BoM tend to be.

Now I immagine that Eclipse will have a pretty big opening, we'll see how big. But I think it will be much like new moon, big opening followed by big crash.

But for all the people that lambasted Iron Man and how it performed, they're starting to eat their words.

 

[Catman]

Were you guys even here during IM1? Champagne bottles were being popped and techno music was blasting for days. That's what the aura felt like, it was a celebration for Marvel. This time around? A small room with no AC, full of frustrated geeks arguing with each other.

When a character like Iron Man stars in a movie that grosses $300 million at the domestic box office it is something to celebrate. The X-Men couldn't do it and they're more popular and well-known. So, that's why the Iron Man board was so positive in 2008. People were shocked. Now, it's different. Now, it's what everyone expects. Fanboys complaining over non-sense. X-Men can't break $300 million and yet they're already working on movies 5 and 6. So, really, there's nothing to get worried about. Iron Man will be around for a while.

I was surprised that TOY STORY 3 is projected to have a smaller opening weekend that IRON MAN 2. Looks like Marvel is still the champ of this summer, thus far...

Opening weekends are important, but so are legs. Iron Man 2 had a bigger opening that Alice in Wonderland but it's not gonna gross $1 billion worldwide. Heck, it's not gonna even surpass it domestically.

 

[Marvin]

I was surprised that TOY STORY 3 is projected to have a smaller opening weekend that IRON MAN 2. Looks like Marvel is still the champ of this summer, thus far...

marvel should be proud

 

[chiefchirpa]

Actually Disney are even prouder they can have a 1,2,3 punch (Alice, Iron Man 2, Toy Story 3) and perhaps #4 at the end of the year (Tron). It's a shame #5 don't get registered (Prince of Persia).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm not surprised about Toy Story 3's opening weekend. It did great but as it got closer I thought that people were way overpredicting it thinking that 130mil was in order. All of Pixar's films have had legs so I expect this one to have legs enough to make more than Iron Man 2. And yes Iron Man 2 was a hit but mark my words it will hurt the 3rd one.

 

[Catman]

it will hurt the 3rd one.

The third installment is so far away that it's difficult to tell. Maybe the time off will give Jon Favreau and his writers more time to come up with a good script that'll result in a crowd-pleasing movie. Or The Avengers could exhaust the audience interest in Iron Man.

 

[Iron_Stark]

When a character like Iron Man stars in a movie that grosses $300 million at the domestic box office it is something to celebrate. The X-Men couldn't do it and they're more popular and well-known. So, that's why the Iron Man board was so positive in 2008. People were shocked. Now, it's different. Now, it's what everyone expects. Fanboys complaining over non-sense. X-Men can't break $300 million and yet they're already working on movies 5 and 6. So, really, there's nothing to get worried about. Iron Man will be around for a while.



Opening weekends are important, but so are legs. Iron Man 2 had a bigger opening that Alice in Wonderland but it's not gonna gross $1 billion worldwide. Heck, it's not gonna even surpass it domestically.

That's what I've been saying for the longest, heck it took DC's golden boy Batman 7 movies and one death just to break the $300 million mark.

And now that Iron Man has two $300 million dollar movies in a row it's going to hurt Iron Man 3?

 

[chiefchirpa]

And yes Iron Man 2 was a hit but mark my words it will hurt the 3rd one.

No matter. Avengers will prop IM3 up, not IM2. Just show Tony Stark scrambled Kang time displacement machine or solve Loki's riddle. Everyone loves a smartass character and IM is the cream of the crop in terms of smartass superhero character. They're not going to promote Ant Man or Hawkeye to do some smart moves because they don't have movie franchises to look for.. yet. Cap is the winsome tactical leader and Thor is the powerful hunk/oaf. It's up to RDJ to play the thinking man's game in the Avengers. And that's good enough to showcase IM back as a bonafide movie franchise.

And you know what? Pixar is owned by Disney like Marvel. After just seeing Toys Story 3 there are obviously so many movie-making know how that can be transferred from Pixar/Disney to Marvel Studios. They can also stamp Disney logo in front and people will actually believe Iron Man 3 is now signed & approved by the same people who made Toy Story or Pirates of the Carribean.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Double post

 

[hatebox]

Geez, things got a little heated here I see. Said it before, will say it again: IM2 is neither a smash hit nor a big disappointment. Box office analysis doesn't occur in a vacuum, it's always about the result vs expectations. IM2's performance was slightly disappointing, domestically it'll make less than its predecessor, but it also made enough to ensure a 3rd one if Marvel want so from a franchise perspective job done.

I expected about $115m for TS3 so it's about in line with that. I think it's safe to say it'll have great legs and could easily be the top grossing movie of the summer. It'll easily go over $300m.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

That's what I've been saying for the longest, heck it took DC's golden boy Batman 7 movies and one death just to break the $300 million mark.

And now that Iron Man has two $300 million dollar movies in a row it's going to hurt Iron Man 3?

Batman 1989 adjusted for inflation is $467 mil.
Batman Forever adjusted for inflation is $317 mil.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/inflation.php

 

[Tony Stark]

You can't call it dissapointing now that TS3 came way in under expectations. Clearly something is happening out there, and it's a combination of things, but people are not happy with increased ticket prices, 3D being forced upon them as a means of revenue boosting.

You were at 115, but it's 6 million under that, and the fact is alot were predicting upwards of 150.

You guys can't have it both ways, you can't say that IM2 was dissapointing and then alot of you (not saying you specifically), but alot of you were pointing to TS3 as the film that would be the breakout of the Summer. Well it wasn't, although it still might gross more than IM2, but only because of the 3D boost. You take out the 3D boost and this wasn't as good as Finding Nemo.

Again, I'm not going to use this to bash TS3, because it sounds fantastic, although I've not seen it yet. But clearly something is keeping folks from going to the movies.

 

[Crook]

How about we wait a few more weeks before jumping the gun on TS3, eh? Do we need another reminder that Cameron's last two blockbusters that grossed over 2 billion, did poorly on their opening weekends? Legs are more important since they indicate word-of-mouth on the film itself. Openings just indicate hype levels pre-release.

 

[hatebox]

You can't call it dissapointing now that TS3 came way in under expectations. Clearly something is happening out there, and it's a combination of things, but people are not happy with increased ticket prices, 3D being forced upon them as a means of revenue boosting.

You were at 115, but it's 6 million under that, and the fact is alot were predicting upwards of 150.

You guys can't have it both ways, you can't say that IM2 was dissapointing and then alot of you (not saying you specifically), but alot of you were pointing to TS3 as the film that would be the breakout of the Summer. Well it wasn't, although it still might gross more than IM2, but only because of the 3D boost. You take out the 3D boost and this wasn't as good as Finding Nemo.

All the analysts I read predicted TS3 to be in the $110-$120m range (only fanatic nerds would have pegged it at $150m +), so I guess if one were to be ultra pedantic you could call it a disappointment, but there's no reason to believe this film won't follow the precedent set by the other two - great word of mouth. I don't see it having much trouble being the highest grosser of the summer. Eclispe will open huge and then have the godawful dropoffs, unless, all of a sudden, the franchise has produced a good instalment.

To use the 3D argument is also disingenuous if you're proposing that higher ticket prices are keeping people away from the movies this summer.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Batman 1989 adjusted for inflation is $467 mil.
Batman Forever adjusted for inflation is $317 mil.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/inflation.php

So now it's about how many tickets it's sold?

Earlier it was being said Alice in Wonderland was a bigger success domestically because of how much more money it made, even though Iron Man sold more tickets.

Now this?

Which is it?

TS3 sold less tickets than IM2 and also made less money opening weekend yet it's being called a success, while IM2 is mediocre?

Some people need to put down their hateraide.

 

[Iron_Stark]

How about we wait a few more weeks before jumping the gun on TS3, eh? Do we need another reminder that Cameron's last two blockbusters that grossed over 2 billion, did poorly on their opening weekends? Legs are more important since they indicate word-of-mouth on the film itself. Openings just indicate hype levels pre-release.

Avatar and Titanic didn't have any competition after they were released, especially in the month of January.

TS3 is going to compete with Air Bender, Twilight, Inception, Predators, Grown ups and others.

What happens if TS3 gets Alice type numbers, will it be mediocre then? will it also not be a smash hit?

I'd like to hear some explanations if it turns out that TS3 sold less tickets than IM2.

 

[Tony Stark]

All the analysts I read predicted TS3 to be in the $110-$120m range (only fanatic nerds would have pegged it at $150m +), so I guess if one were to be ultra pedantic you could call it a disappointment, but there's no reason to believe this film won't follow the precedent set by the other two - great word of mouth. I don't see it having much trouble being the highest grosser of the summer. Eclispe will open huge and then have the godawful dropoffs, unless, all of a sudden, the franchise has produced a good instalment.

To use the 3D argument is also disingenuous if you're proposing that higher ticket prices are keeping people away from the movies this summer.

The 3D is only to point out that this is a run of the mill pixar release, and really nothing spectacular.

 

[Crook]

So now it's about how many tickets it's sold?

Inflation isn't about tickets sold, it adjusts the money made to today's prices.

Avatar and Titanic didn't have any competition after they were released, especially in the month of January. TS3 is going to compete with Air Bender, Twilight, Inception, Predators, Grown ups and others. What happens if TS3 gets Alice type numbers, will it be mediocre then? will it also not be a smash hit? I'd like to hear some explanations if it turns out that TS3 sold less tickets than IM2.

There need not be any explanations, that'd be akin to hypocrisy. TS3 has the critics on their side, and from the audience reviews, they have that too. It being a sequel to two of the most beloved animated films gives it no excuse if it fails money-wise. TS3 failing would be the first indication that something is up, purely because it has all the advantages on its side. I couldn't do that with IM2 simply because it's clearly divided the fanbase. Not so much in a "it's amazing/it sucks" type of way, but it's been lukewarm.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Inflation isn't about tickets, it adjusts the money made to today's prices.

Come on, it's about ticket sales as well. You mean to tell me there's nothing to the fact that when people bought tickets for Titanic, they were $6 and for Avatar in 3D they were $12?

There need not be any explanations, that'd be akin to hypocrisy. TS3 has the critics on their side, and from the audience reviews, they have that too. It being a sequel to two of the most beloved animated films gives it no excuse if it fails money-wise. TS3 failing would be the first indication that something is up, purely because it has all the advantages on its side. I couldn't do that with IM2 simply because it's clearly divided the fanbase. Not so much in a "it's amazing/it sucks" type of way, but it's been lukewarm.

lol, so now it comes down to TS3 if there's something up?

And Iron Man really isnt' divided, it's mainly fans of a certain pointy eared superhero that are coming on here calling IM2 a disappointment.

 

[Crook]

Come on, it's about ticket sales as well. You mean to tell me there's nothing to the fact that when people bought tickets for Titanic, they were $6 and for Avatar in 3D they were $12?

Were you guys not talking about Batman films? There was no 3D or special viewings for any of those.

 

[Chewy]

Avatar and Titanic didn't have any competition after they were released, especially in the month of January.

Avatar didn't have any competition? You mean competition like the not one, but two $200M grossing hits that were released the next week?

I'm not a big fan of Avatar but facts are facts and Avatar had plenty of competition.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Were you guys not talking about Batman films? There was no 3D or special viewings for any of those.

Yes, I brought up the fact that it took 7 films and one death for Batman to cross $300 million because people on here just want to go off money and not ticket sales.

Avatar didn't have any competition? You mean competition like the not one, but two $200M grossing hits that were released the next week?

I'm not a big fan of Avatar but facts are facts and Avatar had plenty of competition.

My bad, I completely forgot about the Chipmunks and forgot that Holmes came out after Avatar.

Yes Avatar had plenty of competition, but still, January was barren compared to what's going to come this July.

 

[Crook]

And Iron Man really isnt' divided, it's mainly fans of a certain pointy eared superhero that are coming on here calling IM2 a disappointment.

See when you talk like this, you cannot expect people to take you seriously. You've gone to the same exact review thread, there are some fans of IM who were at the very least slightly disappointed compared to their love of the first. It's so funny people find their personal fanboy-ism as unlike the fanboy-ism of another property. Please get over yourself. I promise you you're both considered loons from the outside perspective.

Yes, I brought up the fact that it took 7 films and one death for Batman to cross $300 million because people on here just want to go off money and not ticket sales.

Yes, and I'm just saying 300 million of today, was not 300 million of 10 years ago. A 200 million dollar film in the 90s would've been a mammoth success, as opposed to today where it'd be standard.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Yes, and I'm just saying 300 million of today, was not 300 million of 10 years ago. A 200 million dollar film in the 90s would've been a mammoth success, as opposed to today where it'd be standard.

I completely understand what you're saying and what inflation is, bottom line, more people bought tickets to see a 200 million movie in the 90s than a 200 million film right now.

That's my point.

But apparently that doesn't count, that's why I commented on the Bat films.