The Israel-Palestine Politics Thread II

My speculation,

The Biden administration wants to focus US foreign policy on either Russia-Ukraine or China-Taiwan. They're aware they can't focus on a million places at once, and there's evidence that they see the excess even in emphasizing those two theaters.

But Netanyahu wants to drag the US into a wider Mideast war, which completely undermines that plan. Israel is attacking the Palestinians, the Lebanese, the Syrians, assassinating Iranians, and is facing fire from Yemen and Iraqi militias. The US has had to send a naval battle group to Yemen, which takes up resources.

That's not what the Biden administration wants, but Israel may calculate that it has enough lobbying power in Washington to force a US intervention if it's under threat. That would be bad for the US, and I suspect it would be bad for Israel too but Netanyahu might be too arrogant to realize it.

The US would be vulnerable in a broader middle east war. Its forces there are spread out over dozens of bases, and thus harder to defend. The supply lines are very long. And they would have far less global diplomatic sympathy and support then they would with either Taiwan or Ukraine.
Well, Israel is not a member of NATO so they need to stay the hell out of it.
 
Soon, the moderators here may need to rename this thread the "Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon thread".

The US has indicated it is open to backing an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, amid mounting frustration that the group continues to link a truce with Israel to an elusive broader ceasefire in Gaza.

In his meetings in Beirut on Tuesday, US envoy Amos Hochstein delivered "blunt" warnings to Lebanese officials that Israel is preparing to launch a limited offensive on Hezbollah and will have the US's support if a diplomatic solution isn't found, a senior Arab official told Middle East Eye.

 
If the war expands into Lebanon/Hezbollah and Trump is re-elected you can bet American troops will be sent to the ground.
 
If the war expands into Lebanon/Hezbollah and Trump is re-elected you can bet American troops will be sent to the ground.
At this rate, we will have prior to the election:
- the extermination of 1 million Gazans.
- American boots on the ground.
- Possible use of tactical nuclear weapons or neutron bombs by Israel.

Problems run a lot deeper than Trump.
 
“A rift between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country’s military leadership is spilling increasingly into the open after the armed forces’ top spokesman said Netanyahu’s aim of destroying Hamas in Gaza is unachievable,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said a military spokesman: “The idea that we can destroy Hamas or make Hamas disappear is misleading to the public.”
 
At this rate, we will have prior to the election:
- the extermination of 1 million Gazans.
- American boots on the ground.
- Possible use of tactical nuclear weapons or neutron bombs by Israel.

Problems run a lot deeper than Trump.
There is no way that we will have American troops in Israel before the election. That is the last thing that Biden will ever do. I don’t know why you think Israel will use nuclear weapons.
 

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