The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

That may already be happening. Deadpool 2 was scheduled to open the w/e after Solo, like Jumanji and PP3 WRT TLJ. Fox just moved it up to the week BEFORE Solo. Nothing with blockbuster ambitions opened a week in front of TFA, RO or TLJ.

Not only is Deadpool 2 opening ahead of Solo but it's a movie aiming largely at the same core demographic. Movies that tried to go H2H against SW movies were almost always kids movies like Sing, Alvin and the Chipmunks or Ferdinand. This is a pretty big change. We'll see if it's hubris or the new conventional wisdom.

That is kind of crazy but the threat of Solo has probably dimmed significantly over the last year. The last thing you would normally want is a big and similar target audience film to open the week after yours. That is the worst position, obviously aside from opening on the same weekend, although at least that way the rival film doesn’t have the advantage of being new as you go into your 2nd weekend.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Day 39 (Monday)
Avatar: $3,240,192
Titanic: $1,901,222
Marvel's The Avengers: $1,385,505
Jurassic World: $1,372,505
The Force Awakens: $1,295,742
The Dark Knight: $1,183,256
Finding Dory: $1,145,093
Avengers Age of Ultron: $747,554
Beauty and the Beast (2017): $634,259
Rogue One: $612,079
The Last Jedi: $539,120 (TFA -58.39%, RO -11.92%)

 

[007]

I don't think it's possible. Once you factor in the ancillaries and the merchandise money, TLJ will be out of sight. If you're only interested in the theatrical revenues, then TLJ will bring in way more than Jumanji but....

J - (390x0.5) + (435x0.4) + (92x0.25) = 399.8m

TLJ - [(580.3x0.65)+(40x0.5)] + (670x0.4) + (41x0.25) = 675.455m

So TLJ is clearly well ahead in overall numbers but relative to their trade reported production budget Jumanji will be more profitable. Also when you consider the P&A budget, off the tops and participation bonuses on top of prod. budget, Jumanji will seem even better w.r.t TLJ.

thank you.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

thank you.

 

[jmart]

That may already be happening. Deadpool 2 was scheduled to open the w/e after Solo, like Jumanji and PP3 WRT TLJ. Fox just moved it up to the week BEFORE Solo. Nothing with blockbuster ambitions opened a week in front of TFA, RO or TLJ.

Not only is Deadpool 2 opening ahead of Solo but it's a movie aiming largely at the same core demographic. Movies that tried to go H2H against SW movies were almost always kids movies like Sing, Alvin and the Chipmunks or Ferdinand. This is a pretty big change. We'll see if it's hubris or the new conventional wisdom.

Dumb question. Has anyone figured out yet why Fox is moving Deadpool 2 before Solo? Why are they undercutting their future bosses? Do they think the merger isn't going to go through or that Disney might move Solo to December? It'd make sense from a competition standpoint if they weren't merging, but it doesn't make sense. I'm probably missing something.

Also, I'm not sure if it's official, but Sony is aiming to release Jumanji 2 up against Episode IX, but they don't have Dwyane Johnson confirmed (sorry if this was already mentioned). I'm not sure if lightning could strike twice for Sony without him.

 

[Warlock]

Latest update from Box Office Mojo states:

Domestic: $606,021,888
International: $692,176,253
Worldwide: $1298,198,141

Whereas The-Numbers.com has it at:

Domestic: $606,021,888
International: $691,863,036
Worldwide; 1,297,884,924

With yesterday's take at $531,967

Firstly, it is still a couple of million away from 1.3billion after 6 weeks, it should finally cross it this weekend (7th Weekend post release). I think 1.4 is a pipe dream, not going to happen.

Secondly, anyone know why The-Numbers website always has lower international numbers than Box Office Mojo? I've noticed this with pretty much every movie, they never agree and Box Office Mojo always has the higher figure.

 

[Silver Surfer]

It's still not at 1.3b? WTF. The slog was real...

 

[danoyse]

Greatest Showman was also effective counter-programming.

Greatest Showman bouncing back from that first weekend was my favorite story of the whole Christmas-week movie season.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's still not at 1.3b? WTF. The slog was real...

TLJ is over 1.3 billion world-wide atm but BOM hasn't updated the OS numbers for the past 3 days so the those numbers aren't added to the final total. They don't update OS numbers on a daily basis this far into a movies' BO run. Foreign market numbers for the whole week will be up on Sunday.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Firstly, it is still a couple of million away from 1.3billion after 6 weeks, it should finally cross it this weekend (7th Weekend post release).

Refer to the previous post.

I think 1.4 is a pipe dream, not going to happen.

1.4B has been a pipe dream for the last 3-4 weekends.

Secondly, anyone know why The-Numbers website always has lower international numbers than Box Office Mojo? I've noticed this with pretty much every movie, they never agree and Box Office Mojo always has the higher figure.

Both of them are reliable. But BOM is usually more reliable with international numbers. BOM updates the OS database thoroughly and the numbers on the site is almost always spot on. If you're in doubt, go with Box Office Mojo.

I'm not sure if the OS numbers for TLJ were different on BOM & The-Numbers before today but the slight discrepancy in numbers could be attributed to fluctuating exchange rates. USD fell w.r.t Chinese Yuan over the last couple of days so that could be a reason for the small difference as some sites use the opening week fx-rates to compute real time OS gross in terms of USD and some other sites will use ongoing or current fx-rates for the same.

 

[Warlock]

Both of them are reliable. But BOM is usually more reliable with international numbers. BOM updates the OS database thoroughly and the numbers on the site is almost always spot on. If you're in doubt, go with Box Office Mojo.

I'm not sure if the OS numbers for TLJ were different on BOM & The-Numbers before today but the slight discrepancy in numbers could be attributed to fluctuating exchange rates. USD fell w.r.t Chinese Yuan over the last couple of days so that could be a reason for the small difference as some sites use the opening week fx-rates to compute real time OS gross in terms of USD and some other sites will use ongoing or current fx-rates for the same.

Not only were they different before today, they are always different, with almost every movie. Check it out:

SW:TLJ (1298.2m vs. 1297.9m) *0.3m difference
Beauty and the Beast (1263.5m vs. 1263.1m) *0.4m difference
Wonderwoman (821.8m vs. 817.0m) **4.8m difference
Thor Ragnarok (851.7m vs 850.0m) *1.7m difference
GoTG2 (863.7m vs. 863.2m) *0.5m difference
Spiderman Homecoming (880.2m vs. 880.2m) <---SAME!
Jumanji (772.4m vs. 779.4m) **7.0m difference
The Greatest Showman (234.0m vs. 236.3) **2.3m difference
It (700.4m vs. 697.8m) **2.6m difference
Justice League (655.5m vs. 655.2m) *0.2m difference


You get the picture, any movie from 2017, all different numbers, the domestic are identical, but the OS are always different and The-Numbers.com is always a smaller value than Box Office Mojo... I wonder what is going on. This cannot simply be put down to lack of updates or different updates, or an ever so slightly different exchange rate in China the last couple of days. Plenty of those movies have stopped showing.

 

[gerrym51]

It's still not at 1.3b? WTF. The slog was real...

i agree it has passed 1.3 worldwide sometime this week. boxofficemojo just has not posted it yet.

However since there is no actual definition of a movie slog- I would argue it has been in a slog since i brought it up 3 weeks ago.

i think 1.32 is it's max

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

2nd column: higher is better
3rd column: lower is better

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

* Week 0 $20,945,182
** Week 0 $40,840,267

(click image to enlarge)

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2018/01/maze-runner-death-cure-weekend-box-office-1202269925/

10) Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 1,745 theaters (-711)/ $959K Fri (-41%)/3-day: $4M (-40%)/Total:$610.5M/ Wk 7

Damn, that'll be a harsh drop. I thought TLJ will show a better PTA retention this weekend just like last weekend when TLJ's PTA drop was better than R1 in it's 6th weekend. Come to think of it, R1 probably lost more IMAX, 3D & PLFs in it's 6th weekend and that would explain why it's PTA drop was larger than that of TLJ.

Plus all 3 of the new SW movies were coming of the back of a holiday inflated weekend but TFA & R1 held way better than TLJ on MLK weekend so TLJ's marginally better drop compared to TFA & R1 last weekend was basically normal. TLJ did below par the weekend before so it was able to hold better w.r.t to movies that exceeded expectations in the previous weekend.

TFA dropped 21% and R1 dropped 26.8% in their respective 7th weekends. The 40% drop for TLJ doesn't look very good. It's likely to increase later tho.

 

[gerrym51]

http://deadline.com/2018/01/maze-runner-death-cure-weekend-box-office-1202269925/




Damn, that'll be a harsh drop. I thought TLJ will show a better PTA retention this weekend just like last weekend when TLJ's PTA drop was better than R1 in it's 6th weekend. Come to think of it, R1 probably lost more IMAX, 3D & PLFs in it's 6th weekend and that would explain why it's PTA drop was larger than that of TLJ.

Plus all 3 of the new SW movies were coming of the back of a holiday inflated weekend but TFA & R1 held way better than TLJ on MLK weekend so TLJ's marginally better drop compared to TFA & R1 last weekend was basically normal. TLJ did below par the weekend before so it was able to hold better w.r.t to movies that exceeded expectations in the previous weekend.

TFA dropped 21% and R1 dropped 26.8% in their respective 7th weekends. The 40% drop for TLJ doesn't look very good. It's likely to increase later tho.

you realize most every week you make a post like this lamenting TLJ drops-i said most. What is is. Your concern should be for what happens to SW9. SW8 in and of itself has actually made a ton of money. It's only if the trajectory of SW7 thru SW8 continues to SW9.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

you realize most every week you make a post like this lamenting TLJ drops.

I do this every week because I love crunching numbers. It's a lot of fun.

Your concern should be for what happens to SW9.

I have no concerns for Ep. IX. It'll do very well. Just like Ep. VIII, it'll make a ton of money.

It's only if the trajectory of SW7 thru SW8 continues to SW9.

I don't think SW9 will follow the trajectory of SW7 to SW8. The odds of that happening is really very slim. I have no idea how Ep. IX will actually perform but it can't possibly drop 34% from TLJ. I think even if Ep. IX drops from TLJ, it'll be a (7.25-12.5)% drop. It might increase from Ep. VIII like ROTJ & ROTS did against the respective middle chapters. A lot will depend on the marketing campaign, especially the first trailer. If the 1st trailer is warmly received by most people, there'll be no stopping the hype train. This is still Star Wars we are talking about. Never underestimate Star Wars.

 

[gerrym51]

I do this every week because I love crunching numbers. It's a lot of fun.



I have no concerns for Ep. IX. It'll do very well. Just like Ep. VIII, it'll make a ton of money.



I don't think SW9 will follow the trajectory of SW7 to SW8. The odds of that happening is really very slim. I have no idea how Ep. IX will actually perform but it can't possibly drop 34% from TLJ. I think even if Ep. IX drops from TLJ, it'll be a (7.25-12.5)% drop. It might increase from Ep. VIII like ROTJ & ROTS did against the respective middle chapters. A lot will depend on the marketing campaign, especially the first trailer. If the 1st trailer is warmly received by most people, there'll be no stopping the hype train. This is still Star Wars we are talking about. Never underestimate Star Wars.

It can't possibly drop 34 percent from TLJ. Of course it can. Did you expect TLJ to drop 34 percent from TFA?

Will it is another thing. But like in sports-which i don't bet because-sure things aren't always sure.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Top 10 Dom. Grossing Movie (2015-2017) / Day it reached 90% of its total gross
Batman v Superman: DoJ (Mar. 2016) / 18
Justice League (Nov. 2017) / 22
Captain America: Civil War (May 2016) / 23
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec. 2017) / 23* (example number if dom. gross reaches 622 million domestic)
Furious 7 (Apr. 2015) / 24
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Dec. 2016) / 25
Avengers: Age of Ultron (May 2015) / 26
It (Sep. 2017) / 28
Thor: Ragnarok (Nov. 2017) / 29
Spectre (Nov. 2015) / 29
Finding Dory (Jun. 2016) / 29
Suicide Squad (Aug. 2016) / 30
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (May 2017) / 30
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec. 2015) / 30
Hunger Games: Mockingjay – P2 (Nov. 2015) / 31
Minions (Jul. 2015) / 31
Deadpool (Feb. 2016) / 31
Beauty and the Beast (Mar. 2017) / 31
Jurassic World (Jun. 2015) / 31
Cinderella (Mar. 2015) / 32
Sing (Dec. 2016) / 32
Spider-Man: Homecoming (Jul. 2017) / 36
Despicable Me 3 (Jun. 2017) / 37
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle (Dec. 2017) / 37** (example number if dom. gross reaches 357 million domestic)
The Secret Life of Pets (Jul. 2016) / 37
The Jungle Book (Apr. 2016) / 39
Inside Out (Jun. 2015) / 39
Wonder Woman (Jun. 2017) / 41
The Martian (Oct. 2015) / 44
Zootopia (Mar. 2016) / 45

Bonus Round (some others) - Movie: Day it reached 90% of its total gross (multiplier = gross divided by opening weekend)
Marvel’s The Avengers (May 2012): 35 (3.01)
Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Nov. 2013): 36 (2.69)
Moana (Nov. 2016): 47 (4.39)
American Sniper (Dec. 2014): 59 (3.92)
Avatar (Dec. 2009): 64 (9.73)
Frozen (Nov. 2013): 76 (5.95)
Titanic (Dec. 1997): 114 (20.98)

Bonus Round II - Christopher Nolan Film: Day it reached 90% of its total gross (multiplier = gross divided by opening weekend)
Dunkirk (Jul. 2017) : 36 (3.72)
Interstellar (Nov. 2014): 45 (3.96)
The Dark Knight Rises (Jul. 2012): 30 (2.79)
Inception (Jul. 2010): 40 (4.66)
The Dark Knight (Jul. 2008): 36 (3.37)
The Prestige (Oct. 2006): 29 (3.59)
Batman Begins (Jul. 2005): 36 (4.21)
Insomnia (May 2002): 30 (3.22)

 

[dataSlave]

Not only were they different before today, they are always different, with almost every movie. Check it out:

SW:TLJ (1298.2m vs. 1297.9m) *0.3m difference
Beauty and the Beast (1263.5m vs. 1263.1m) *0.4m difference
Wonderwoman (821.8m vs. 817.0m) **4.8m difference
Thor Ragnarok (851.7m vs 850.0m) *1.7m difference
GoTG2 (863.7m vs. 863.2m) *0.5m difference
Spiderman Homecoming (880.2m vs. 880.2m) <---SAME!
Jumanji (772.4m vs. 779.4m) **7.0m difference
The Greatest Showman (234.0m vs. 236.3) **2.3m difference
It (700.4m vs. 697.8m) **2.6m difference
Justice League (655.5m vs. 655.2m) *0.2m difference


You get the picture, any movie from 2017, all different numbers, the domestic are identical, but the OS are always different and The-Numbers.com is always a smaller value than Box Office Mojo... I wonder what is going on. This cannot simply be put down to lack of updates or different updates, or an ever so slightly different exchange rate in China the last couple of days. Plenty of those movies have stopped showing.

Actually exchange rates could easily explain it though I can't think of any way to confirm that it's driving the discrepancy. If one site uses the rate at the time that numbers are reported then you get a conversion to US dollars and then summed up. If the summary take place in the foreign currency then the total is converted to USD at the current exchange rate that could move things by a percent or more.

Look at how much of TLJ's box office came out of Europe. Then consider that during the last 6 weeks the Euro has been worth as much as $1.243 and a little as $1.175. That's a potential 5% swing in half of the box office. It would only take one tenth that much to explain the discrepancies between BOM and The Numbers for most of those movies.

 

[dataSlave]

http://deadline.com/2018/01/maze-runner-death-cure-weekend-box-office-1202269925/




Damn, that'll be a harsh drop. I thought TLJ will show a better PTA retention this weekend just like last weekend when TLJ's PTA drop was better than R1 in it's 6th weekend. Come to think of it, R1 probably lost more IMAX, 3D & PLFs in it's 6th weekend and that would explain why it's PTA drop was larger than that of TLJ.

Plus all 3 of the new SW movies were coming of the back of a holiday inflated weekend but TFA & R1 held way better than TLJ on MLK weekend so TLJ's marginally better drop compared to TFA & R1 last weekend was basically normal. TLJ did below par the weekend before so it was able to hold better w.r.t to movies that exceeded expectations in the previous weekend.

TFA dropped 21% and R1 dropped 26.8% in their respective 7th weekends. The 40% drop for TLJ doesn't look very good. It's likely to increase later tho.

We are probably at the point where the numbers are small enough that absolute dollars begin to trump percentage variation. International still seems to have better legs than domestic but smaller markets are probably close to shutting TLJ down.

 

[Silver Surfer]

It can't possibly drop 34 percent from TLJ. Of course it can. Did you expect TLJ to drop 34 percent from TFA?

Will it is another thing. But like in sports-which i don't bet because-sure things aren't always sure.

If SW9 drops around 35% like TLJ did, then heads will roll at Lucasfilm. That said I expect a 10-15% drop for SW9, for a 35% drop the WOM has to be really bad.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Ep 9 will surpass Ep 8 but not Ep 7.

 

[Warlock]

Actually exchange rates could easily explain it though I can't think of any way to confirm that it's driving the discrepancy. If one site uses the rate at the time that numbers are reported then you get a conversion to US dollars and then summed up. If the summary take place in the foreign currency then the total is converted to USD at the current exchange rate that could move things by a percent or more.

Look at how much of TLJ's box office came out of Europe. Then consider that during the last 6 weeks the Euro has been worth as much as $1.243 and a little as $1.175. That's a potential 5% swing in half of the box office. It would only take one tenth that much to explain the discrepancies between BOM and The Numbers for most of those movies.

Maybe for some of the minor 0.2 or 0.3m differences, however 4.8m difference for WW , 7m for Jumanji and 2.3m for The Greatest Showman seems like a lot.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

So this won't hit 1.5 billion? Wow... was not expecting that.