Homecoming The most likely outcome?

[cheungcheung]

All it will take is just one good Spider-Man film to get things back on track and if Sony Pictures can do that, why bother sharing with Marvel Studios?

Exactly... See batman begins after batman and robin

 

[Visualiza]

Spot on, there really is no telling what's going to happen here because so much of this is largely unprecedented.
And as you said, it really is anybody's guess. I think it's interesting that so many people are voting for option 3; while that would no doubt the the best scenario, I can't start letting myself think that way because I know I will be so disappointed if that doesn't end up happening. I voted for the second option.

And that's exactly what I'm wrestling with as well. Gotta temper the expectations.

 

[Flint Marko]

And that's exactly what I'm wrestling with as well. Gotta temper the expectations.

Love the quote in the sig by the way, is that from one of his essays?

 

[Visualiza]

Exactly... See batman begins after batman and robin

Or Fast Five...after four awful F&F movies. I always think back to that franchise when I think of Spidey's current predicament, but the key difference (for me, anyway) is that I was never a fan of that franchise or the characters. I'll be in Sony's court the minute they produce a good Spider-Man flick again, but they just don't have my confidence right now.

 

[Visualiza]

Love the quote in the sig by the way, is that from one of his essays?

Twitter.

He does have an innumerable amount of quotables (and general nuggets of wisdom) in his essays though.

 

[Incrediblejeff]

Whatever it is I hope we never see another origin story.

 

[WBwins]

Marvel gives Sony a percentage of merchandising profits.Spidey goes back to MCU

 

[Donut]

Marvel gives Sony a percentage of merchandising profits.Spidey goes back to MCU

Why should MARVEL give up anything ? Its not MARVEL that needs help

 

[Visualiza]

Why should MARVEL give up anything ? Its not MARVEL that needs help

I think the point is that it won't be as simple as all of the theorycrafting seems to suggest.

If Spidey ends up in the MCU, I wouldn't be surprised if several hefty compromises were part of the deal.

 

[WBwins]

Why should MARVEL give up anything ? Its not MARVEL that needs help

Marvel will have to pay a price to buy Spidey.

 

[Rodrigo90]

Joss Whedon will offer ten grand...

 

[AF3619]

i seriously hope it´s 3 but i think 2 is going to happen

 

[Flint Marko]

Or Fast Five...after four awful F&F movies. I always think back to that franchise when I think of Spidey's current predicament, but the key difference (for me, anyway) is that I was never a fan of that franchise or the characters. I'll be in Sony's court the minute they produce a good Spider-Man flick again, but they just don't have my confidence right now.

Would you rather have a good Spider-man film from Sony or Spider-man be included in the MCU?

 

[Visualiza]

Would you rather have a good Spider-man film from Sony or Spider-man be included in the MCU?

I'll always side with quality, but does your question assume that the MCU film would be sub-par?

Hypotheticals aside, I have a lot more confidence in Feige than I do Arad & Pascal to deliver a solid movie. Also, to Feige's credit, he's managed to nail more than just one, and consistently.

 

[Spider-Gnome]

Would you rather have a good Spider-man film from Sony or Spider-man be included in the MCU?

It's not only that I want Spidey in the MCU, I think Marvel Studios can deliver a better Spider-Man movie than Sony. I've lost all faith in them. They do not know what they are doing and are grasping at straws!

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I went with Sony keeping the rights and rebooting. Given how valuable the Spider-Man brand is, I don't think Sony will ultimately be willing to let it get away without another kick at the can.

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic.

 

[spider-neil]

I still think the deal is more likely not to happen than it happening.
Marvel are in a position of strength both in terms of movies and merchandising. So they don't really have to give up anything.
Sony have nothing to offer up except the character of Spider-Man and character of Spider-Man (Bond aside) is their only real money maker.

Marvel are going to have to bend to make it worth Sony's while and Sony are going to have to give up creative rights for Marvel to be interested, there are simply too many interconnected threads for Sony to be allowed ANY say in the MCU.

The reported deal was a 60/40 split in favour of Marvel with Marvel to retain the creative rights. Sony walked away from the deal.
I don't see Marvel softening on that stance, why should they?

So Sony have to accept the deal on the table, worse, it's possible Marvel have even take the hack to make even stronger terms.

Spidey in the MCU IMHO is no more than 50/50 likely to happen. It all depend on Sony's willingness to give up creative control.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

That is pretty much what I said a couple months ago. It's gonna be hard for both Sony and Marvel to agree on something they like. One wants this, while the other wants that.

 

[smashmode]

Call me a pessimist, but I feel that Sony is going to continue on its current destructive path.

 

[JOE]

Call me a pessimist, but I feel that Sony is going to continue on its current destructive path.

This happens to be the worst case scenario... In which they would be rebooting anyways, so it's still better than TASM 3.

 

[UltimateWebhead]

Would you rather have a good Spider-man film from Sony or Spider-man be included in the MCU?

Quality should always win. However, I am not confident that Sony is capable of producing a good Spider-Man movie. At least not with their current personnel nor their meddling methods. Marvel has a higher success rate recently with their movies and I have much more confidence they would deliver the quality I am looking for, the MCU addition is merely the topping on the sundae.

 

[lukebrodyg]

The scariest option is a Sony reboot. They will inevitably try so hard to be different from TASM series (one average, one very poor) that we'll get a nearly unrecognizable Spider-man story...

Were that to happen the only good that could come of it is an eventual reverting of rights back to Marvel but that's years away.

The perfect solution is for Sony to cut a deal with Marvel that relinquishes ANY creative input but that allows them to make a generous profit.

 

[WBwins]

The perfect solution is for Sony to cut a deal with Marvel that relinquishes ANY creative input but that allows them to make a generous profit.

Which is why i suggested Marvel give Sony some merchandising profits?

 

[Moridin]

That's how I feel. It's obvious people choosing the Marvel option are ignoring much of the other news IMO.

That said, at this point it wouldn't surprise me if Sony Pictures does go with the Marvel option. It does make a lot of business sense because it would help revitalize interest in the Spidey franchise, it would mitigate the risks of making a big budget movie (especially with a studio that has become notorious in wasting money), and the leaked e-mails have revealed that Sony Pictures not only doesn't know what they're doing with Spider-Man, they're acting incredibly foolish in the process. The Marvel option is the safest for Sony Pictures, and has the best potential for a high ROI, but the amount of money Sony Pictures can get for it would be the lowest possible.

But the other options do make a lot of sense as well. All it will take is just one good Spider-Man film to get things back on track and if Sony Pictures can do that, why bother sharing with Marvel Studios? Sony has invested a lot into the Amazing Spider-Man film universe and it would be tough to just simply throw it away completely. It's the best option to go with if Sony wants a Spider-Man movie quickly. Or rebooting it would help them move away from the baggage of the Amazing Spider-Man films just like what Marvel Studios wants. Keeping 100% of the film rights is the riskiest option but has the potential for the highest amounts of rewards exclusively for Sony Pictures instead of having to share it.

If I were running Sony Pictures, I would go with the Marvel option. Not because of my own personal preferences about Spider-Man, but from a business sense with the state Sony Pictures is in, going with safe options on various film projects (not just Spider-Man), re-establish relations with top notch talent, re-establish some IPs (like Ghostbusters and Men in Black), etc. is the way to go. Sony Pictures really isn't in a position right now to be making riskier moves at this moment like what they're trying to do with the Spider-Man IP.

Good breakdown. Though I slightly disagree with it "only taking one good film to get back on track". I think it'll take two very good/great films to see significant returns. I think TASM2 will definitely impact another pure Sony film, even if it's great. So the question is - Can Sony survive that hit on the next film and push on to where they'd see a real significant profit? Assuming they could make two very good/great films in a row?


I think it's 50/50 between pushing on alone with a reboot or making a deal with Marvel for low spending-low return (but pretty much assured return). So I wonder if Marvel/Disney would be will to sweeten the pot and tip the odds heavily in their favour by cutting Sony in on Merchandise. 5-7% (having read on here that the Spidey Merch this year has already made $1.3bn, I'm assuming that's the case) meaning Sony could have 10's of millions of dollars of pure profit (maybe even up to 100 million) a year, every year, no risk. Of course that'd be pennies to Disney/Marvel, but Sony sure could use it.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I still think the deal is more likely not to happen than it happening.
Marvel are in a position of strength both in terms of movies and merchandising. So they don't really have to give up anything.
Sony have nothing to offer up except the character of Spider-Man and character of Spider-Man (Bond aside) is their only real money maker.

Marvel are going to have to bend to make it worth Sony's while and Sony are going to have to give up creative rights for Marvel to be interested, there are simply too many interconnected threads for Sony to be allowed ANY say in the MCU.

The reported deal was a 60/40 split in favour of Marvel with Marvel to retain the creative rights. Sony walked away from the deal.
I don't see Marvel softening on that stance, why should they?

So Sony have to accept the deal on the table, worse, it's possible Marvel have even take the hack to make even stronger terms.

Spidey in the MCU IMHO is no more than 50/50 likely to happen. It all depend on Sony's willingness to give up creative control.

You're right. Sony isn't going to get better than that. Marvel will not accept any deal in which Sony retains creative control, nor should they.