I know this is probably going to get me some flak, but here's how I see it:
Microsoft isn't focusing on exclusive games anymore because games are just an incredibly small part of their overall strategy with the Xbox. To sum it up: unless it's a select group of elite first and third party franchises (Halo, Gears of War, Fable, Forza, Call of Duty, Elder Scrolls, and Grand Theft Auto), Microsoft doesn't give a flying **** about the games anymore. The games they're more focused on isn't about the hardcore audience, it's about the casual audience. Their main strategy now is to appeal to the casual audience.
And why the casual audience? Because Microsoft doesn't see the Xbox as a games console anymore. It's an all-in-one entertainment box for all sorts of media content ranging from games, movies, television, music, etc. Just look at how Microsoft is now treating the Xbox brand now. Xbox is now seen as a digital distribution platform for music, movies, television, and games across multiple platforms: Xbox 360, Windows Phone, Windows RT tablets, and Windows 8 PCs. Xbox is essentially Microsoft's answer to Google's Google TV and Google Play; and Apple's Apple TV, App Store, and iTunes. But unlike Google and Apple, they're wrapping it up in one big efficient brand. It's their way of dominating the living room and unlike their competitors, are being extremely successful at it. It's also their way of getting into digital distribution the way Google and Apple have done it and Xbox is their best chance at it. And in order to be the dominating device on the market, you appeal to the casual audience, not a niche hardcore audience. Apple and Google didn't become huge successes by appealing to the hardcore techies, they'll come along anyways. You become a success by appealing to the troglodyte casuals.
So in the end, expect Microsoft to continue appealing to the masses by pumping out more causal games like they have been for the past couple of years. More Kinect games and small indie-esque XBLA games that can be played across multiple Microsoft platforms. And Microsoft's studio strategy reinforces this opinion. They turned Rare into a Kinect factory. Most of the studios (not all, but the vast majority) that they have acquired or formed are dedicated to Kinect and XBLA titles. Microsoft just isn't going to suddenly change direction for these studios that are designed for one thing (casual games) and do the complete opposite (hardcore games) They'll throw a bone or two every so often to the hardcore, but the casual is where it's at for Microsoft. And a new console isn't going to change this direction. The days where Microsoft did everything right in the eyes of the hardcore are essentially over now.