The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - Part 16

[Willie Lumpkin]

Marvel gets a measly 2% of the BO for X-Men and actually pays Sony for the BO for Spiderman (used to be 3.5% but that was lowered in 2015). I don't disagree with your post though.

Yeah, but I assume that measly 2% is on the gross BO, and Marvel gets it whether the film is profitable or not. So think about something like Fant4stic. After Fox lost 70 million plus, they still had to write a check for three and a half million or more (I thought I had heard Marvel gets more for FF).

So zero risk for Marvel and them sucking like a leach off the top line. Even if it's small, it's a disincentive that adds to the expense of the film.

I would have loved to have been able to watch when Fox was cutting that check.t:

 

[ADollarADay]

Yeah, but I assume that measly 2% is on the gross BO, and Marvel gets it whether the film is profitable or not. So think about something like Fant4stic. After Fox lost 70 million plus, they still had to write a check for three and a half million or more (I thought I had heard Marvel gets more for FF).

So zero risk for Marvel and them sucking like a leach off the top line. Even if it's small, it's a disincentive that adds to the expense of the film.

I would have loved to have been able to watch when Fox was cutting that check.t:

You are right. They do get a bit more for FF and Deadpool, but not above 5% and if I had to guess I would say not above 3.5%.

They get it regardless if the movie is a bomba or a hit, so it works both ways. On something like Fan4stic or X-Men Wolverine Origins they are glad to just get the check. On a breakout hit like Deadpool or Logan they deeply regret ever signing those papers. And considering how all MCU movies behave more like the latter than the former.....

Regardless though my point is that Disney would balk at a 4B (let alone 5.6B) asking price for Spider-man movie rights. Rumor has it they balked at the 2B asking price circa 2014.

 

[Spider-Fan]

With how the current deal with Sony is structured, 4 billion is outrageous. They make nothing off merch as it is, so Marvel would only be getting the film rights back.

 

[Marvel united]

With how the current deal with Sony is structured, 4 billion is outrageous. They make nothing off merch as it is, so Marvel would only be getting the film rights back.

But it also means access to all of Spider-Man's characters and it stops the Sony spinoffs from happening

 

[Spider-Fan]

But it also means access to all of Spider-Man's characters and it stops the Sony spinoffs from happening

That's not worth 4 billion as if Venom fails, the spin-offs will stop. Sony won't keep losing money making films that don't make money.

 

[Big Bang]

That's not worth 4 billion as if Venom fails, the spin-offs will stop. Sony won't keep losing money making films that don't make money.

^ This. The property becomes toxic with negative returns while in Sony's hands. It completely erodes their bargaining power. No other studio in their right mind will examine and determine that without the cards Marvel Studio's holds that they'd be anymore successful. The fact that the only recent success with the character was due to a collaboration with Marvel Studios does not reflect upon SPE well at all.

Getting Sony to come to table to create a situation where the character's movie rights are intertwined with the MCU was a masterful play. Disengaging the character from the MCU in an attempt to go solo will have at best create diminishing returns as in the GA's mind space he is part of something far larger. Sony got played hard, and their studio executives' egos blinded them to this.

 

[Zarex]

The pending FOX deal gives the Mouse quite a bit of leverage with Sony in regards to the next Spidey movie deal. Feige has a lot of work ahead integrating the characters previously controlled by FOX, and carving out months of work to produce a Spider-Man film for a rival studio may not be the best use of his time going forward. And if Venom is as bad as the trailer makes it out to be, bringing Peter into the Spider-Man Supporting Character Non Connected Cinematic Universe (SMSCNCCU) may not be an option.

I wouldn't be surprised if Disney ends the Sony deal after the 5 movie commitment and tries to work out a more favorable, longer lasting arrangement.

 

[Detective Conan]

ATTENTION: There's a potential Deadpool 2 spoiler that puts the Merc-With-The-Mouth's integration into the MCU into question! Spoilers below. The spoiler comes from a very legitimate-sounding plot leak that has been somewhat confirmed by the recent trailer.

Spoiler

Deadpool goes back to the X-mansion and laments about the lack of X-Men, then we apparently see the current X-Men cast from Apocalypse/Dark Phoenix consisting of Tye Sheridan's Cyclops, Sophie Turner's Jean Grey, Alexandra Shipp's Storm and Evan Peters Quicksilver, and Kodi Smit-McPhee's Nightcrawler in a room until they take notice of Deadpool and close the door.

 

[Gamma Goliath]

Deadpools integration in the mcu was always going to be a mess. It would likely still happen but it would just be a continuity nightmare. It's easier to do this with deadpool because of his ability to speak with the audience. He can make a meta joke about being in the house of mouse and questioning whether his own movies are canon anymore. So if that rumor is true (even though it makes no sense) it wouldn't matter in the slightest.

 

[Marvel united]

ATTENTION: There's a potential Deadpool 2 spoiler that puts the Merc-the-Mouth's integration into the MCU into question! Spoilers below. The spoiler comes from a very legitimate-sounding plot leak that has been somewhat confirmed by recent trailer.

Spoiler

Deadpool goes back to the X-mansion and laments about the lack of X-Men, then we apparently see the current X-Men cast from Apocalypse/Dark Phoenix consisting of Taylor Sheridan's Cyclops, Sophie Turner's Jean Grey, Alexandra Shipp's Storm and Evan Peters Quicksilver, and Kodie Smith-McPhree's Nightcrawler in a room until they take notice of Deadpool and close the door.

:

 

[Zarex]

It sounds like the rumored DP2 cameo(s) is more of a fan easter egg than an actual in-continuity event. Unless during the movie Deadpool [BLACKOUT]time warps back to the 90s.[/BLACKOUT]

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

ATTENTION: There's a potential Deadpool 2 spoiler that puts the Merc-With-The-Mouth's integration into the MCU into question! Spoilers below. The spoiler comes from a very legitimate-sounding plot leak that has been somewhat confirmed by recent trailer.

Spoiler

Deadpool goes back to the X-mansion and laments about the lack of X-Men, then we apparently see the current X-Men cast from Apocalypse/Dark Phoenix consisting of Tye Sheridan's Cyclops, Sophie Turner's Jean Grey, Alexandra Shipp's Storm and Evan Peters Quicksilver, and Kodi Smit-McPhee's Nightcrawler in a room until they take notice of Deadpool and close the door.

It sounds like the rumored DP2 cameo(s) is more of a fan easter egg than an actual in-continuity event. Unless during the movie Deadpool [BLACKOUT]time warps back to the 90s.[/BLACKOUT]

Yeah, unless there's some additional context that makes it make sense, it just sounds kind of dumb.

Maybe it's just supposed to be dumb for dumb's sake.

... and maybe it will just be in the 'deleted scenes' on the blu-ray.

 

[Marvel united]

Update on At&T/Time Warner trial

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/att...nd-not-relying-on-the-dying-pay-tv-model.html

 

[Big Bang]

Update on At&T/Time Warner trial

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/att...nd-not-relying-on-the-dying-pay-tv-model.html

Basically confirms what a lot of thoughts were. If this author is right, then it also proves the DOJ's case. Essentially AT&T is being very short sighted, and trying to force subscribers to stick with DirectTV through strong arming.

Fiscally, I knew AT&T had debt, but not the massive load that it is currently carrying. $125 Billion currently, and ballooning up to $175 billion if it is successful. Hot damn, that is ~>50% of what their combined valuation would be. They could end up in a very, very tight spot.

HBO alone could be all they need in terms of technology. The author makes a very strong case when discussing about how it is all about content.

 

[Marvel united]

Basically confirms what a lot of thoughts were. If this author is right, then it also proves the DOJ's case. Essentially AT&T is being very short sighted, and trying to force subscribers to stick with DirectTV through strong arming.

Fiscally, I knew AT&T had debt, but not the massive load that it is currently carrying. $125 Billion currently, and ballooning up to $175 billion if it is successful. Hot damn, that is ~>50% of what their combined valuation would be. They could end up in a very, very tight spot.

HBO alone could be all they need in terms of technology. The author makes a very strong case when discussing about how it is all about content.

 

[Crimz]

I haven't been paying much attention to AT&T talk. So what scenario would be better for the Disney/Fox deal to go through? The AT&T deal succeeding or failing?

 

[Big Bang]

I haven't been paying much attention to AT&T talk. So what scenario would be better for the Disney/Fox deal to go through? The AT&T deal succeeding or failing?

It honestly shouldn't matter either way. The only it would adversely effect it is if AT&T's deal were to get approved without any conditions and Comcast decides to enter into a bidding war with Disney for Fox.

 

[Marvel united]

It honestly shouldn't matter either way. The only it would adversely effect it is if AT&T's deal were to get approved without any conditions and Comcast decides to enter into a bidding war with Disney for Fox.

That's bad though, man..

 

[Big Bang]

That's bad though, man..

Yeah, but it is a big if right now.

 

[ImSGirl95]

ATTENTION: There's a potential Deadpool 2 spoiler that puts the Merc-With-The-Mouth's integration into the MCU into question! Spoilers below. The spoiler comes from a very legitimate-sounding plot leak that has been somewhat confirmed by the recent trailer.

Spoiler

Deadpool goes back to the X-mansion and laments about the lack of X-Men, then we apparently see the current X-Men cast from Apocalypse/Dark Phoenix consisting of Tye Sheridan's Cyclops, Sophie Turner's Jean Grey, Alexandra Shipp's Storm and Evan Peters Quicksilver, and Kodi Smit-McPhee's Nightcrawler in a room until they take notice of Deadpool and close the door.

Ugh... I really wanted this Deadpool integrated into the MCU. But really at this point, I do thing it's better off without him.
Or, in the intro saying that now a Mouse owns him, and that you will see different X-Men actors, except him, because he did something to the Mouse, or something along those lines.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

Why do you need to integrate the Deadpool movies themselves, or their timeline, in order to integrate the character himself? If you show the audience Deadpool (played by Ryan Reynolds) interacting with an MCU hero or villain in an MCU movie you think they are going to care that it doesn't match up with the first two Deadpool movies or the previous X-Men movies from FOX? No. And Deadpool breaks the fourth wall all the time so just have him address the universe switch head on, directly - in true Deadpool fashion.

 

[ADollarADay]

But it also means access to all of Spider-Man's characters and it stops the Sony spinoffs from happening

That's not worth 4B. Not even worth 1B. Disney pays 4B for Spider-man live action movie rights and their stock will take a nose dive the day it's announced.

^ This. The property becomes toxic with negative returns while in Sony's hands. It completely erodes their bargaining power. No other studio in their right mind will examine and determine that without the cards Marvel Studio's holds that they'd be anymore successful. The fact that the only recent success with the character was due to a collaboration with Marvel Studios does not reflect upon SPE well at all.

Getting Sony to come to table to create a situation where the character's movie rights are intertwined with the MCU was a masterful play. Disengaging the character from the MCU in an attempt to go solo will have at best create diminishing returns as in the GA's mind space he is part of something far larger. Sony got played hard, and their studio executives' egos blinded them to this.

I still think that Disney could have gotten more at that time than what is publicly known. Who knows though, they may have amended the contract to not allow the rights to be transferable or whatever else.

However, I see now how this deal put Sony in a hard place. Taking Spidey out of the MCU only to reboot him again is a bomba in the making. With Hirai gone and Yoshida in, it's not too far fetched to think a deal for full transfer of rights could be reached. Especially if Venom bombs. The timing may work out too (i.e. Venom bombs end of the year, Fox acquisition closes end of the year, Disney execs more willing to enter negotiations to reacquire spidey live action movie rights because it won't risk anything).

Yoshida is much more about turning Sony back to what it was in the 90s than a movie and entertainment house. I think his focused will be on getting Sony to the levels that it was and to challenge FAANG and Samsung. He wants Sony at the forefront of self driving cars and robotics. Having a division that is volatile and oftentimes posts losses is not what Yoshida wants.

Fool called it (i.e. Gaming/Music good reasons to buy SNE, Pictures/TV reasons to stay away from SNE)

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/03/16/2-reasons-to-buy-sony-stock-and-1-reason-to-stay-a.aspx

Finally let us not forget that Sony stock shot up when it was speculated that they were selling off SPE.

http://deadline.com/2018/02/sony-stock-soars-speculation-sale-film-tv-business-1202277362/

Yeah, but it is a big if right now.

That's a huge if. Even if AT&T gets TWX with no strings attached we are still talking about a huge bidding war that may not serve CMCSA or DIS (or FOX for that matter). DIS is not gonna give that up and the wheels are already in motion there. CMCSA's only win in this scenario would be to drive up the cost and lose the bid (therefore making it harder on DIS' balance sheet).

CMCSA would be better off trying to buy up SPE, LGF, MGM, Paramount if they are after content (and LGF also owns Starz for distribution). That would be significantly cheaper provide them with significant content that they could use to scale and compete with FAANG and DIS post Fox acquisition. We are talking about Ghostbusters, Bad Boys, Bond, World War Z, Mission Impossible, Hunger Games, Twighlight, Saw, John Wick, etc etc. Those are all franchises that could easily be revived or put exclusively on xfinity. They could also leverage them in their parks (Saw and World War Z would be great fits for HHN and other franchises could easily get permanent rides/lands).

And they better get a move on that too because Amazon is very interested in LGF. CBS/Viacom may also merge and make a play on another one

 

[Big Bang]

I still think that Disney could have gotten more at that time than what is publicly known. Who knows though, they may have amended the contract to not allow the rights to be transferable or whatever else.

However, I see now how this deal put Sony in a hard place. Taking Spidey out of the MCU only to reboot him again is a bomba in the making. With Hirai gone and Yoshida in, it's not too far fetched to think a deal for full transfer of rights could be reached. Especially if Venom bombs. The timing may work out too (i.e. Venom bombs end of the year, Fox acquisition closes end of the year, Disney execs more willing to enter negotiations to reacquire spidey live action movie rights because it won't risk anything).

Yeah it could very well go that route. Will be interesting to see what Yoshida does there once he has taken over.

Yoshida is much more about turning Sony back to what it was in the 90s than a movie and entertainment house. I think his focused will be on getting Sony to the levels that it was and to challenge FAANG and Samsung. He wants Sony at the forefront of self driving cars and robotics. Having a division that is volatile and oftentimes posts losses is not what Yoshida wants.

I think too he very much wants to take Sony back to its roots. Outside of PlayStation, Sony has been really falling behind in technology. Dumping the volatile entertainment assets will allow Sony to refocus on its roots and maybe become innovative again.

Fool called it (i.e. Gaming/Music good reasons to buy SNE, Pictures/TV reasons to stay away from SNE)

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/03/16/2-reasons-to-buy-sony-stock-and-1-reason-to-stay-a.aspx

Finally let us not forget that Sony stock shot up when it was speculated that they were selling off SPE.

http://deadline.com/2018/02/sony-stock-soars-speculation-sale-film-tv-business-1202277362/

All evidence that I believe points in the same direction. Yoshida was essentially the one who made the path to some level of recovery for Sony. Giving him the reins to make further changes only serves to push them further in the right direction.

That's a huge if. Even if AT&T gets TWX with no strings attached we are still talking about a huge bidding war that may not serve CMCSA or DIS (or FOX for that matter). DIS is not gonna give that up and the wheels are already in motion there. CMCSA's only win in this scenario would be to drive up the cost and lose the bid (therefore making it harder on DIS' balance sheet).

CMCSA would be better off trying to buy up SPE, LGF, MGM, Paramount if they are after content (and LGF also owns Starz for distribution). That would be significantly cheaper provide them with significant content that they could use to scale and compete with FAANG and DIS post Fox acquisition. We are talking about Ghostbusters, Bad Boys, Bond, World War Z, Mission Impossible, Hunger Games, Twighlight, Saw, John Wick, etc etc. Those are all franchises that could easily be revived or put exclusively on xfinity. They could also leverage them in their parks (Saw and World War Z would be great fits for HHN and other franchises could easily get permanent rides/lands).

And they better get a move on that too because Amazon is very interested in LGF. CBS/Viacom may also merge and make a play on another one

CBS/Viacom combining back is looking more and more likely. At this moment I just can't see AT&T coming out on top. Beyond who might buy what piece of TWX, I think ultimately a split up of the 3 divisions (HBO, Warner, Turner) is likely to occur. That is sure to further disrupt the entertainment industry. The more thought I put into it, it just seems like a major mistake that AT&T buy more than 1 of those divisions, and if they did buy just x1, I think it would be HBO. If their purported attempt to try to force consumers into staying subscribed to their TV services by leveraging the TWX assets is to believed, there is potential that could blow up in their faces and ultimately devalue the very assets they are trying to acquire.

Which is partly why I think a bidding war between Fox and DIS is unlikely to occur. Not withstanding the issue with Sky. I think Sky is very strategic for both companies. There is potentially going to be a lot of opportunity to keep multiple parties busy.

 

[Big Bang]

Why do you need to integrate the Deadpool movies themselves, or their timeline, in order to integrate the character himself? If you show the audience Deadpool (played by Ryan Reynolds) interacting with an MCU hero or villain in an MCU movie you think they are going to care that it doesn't match up with the first two Deadpool movies or the previous X-Men movies from FOX? No. And Deadpool breaks the fourth wall all the time so just have him address the universe switch head on, directly - in true Deadpool fashion.

I think the character by himself is transferable. It's Deadpool. No overarching explanation of any kind is necessary.

 

[DyfeddRex]

So....
What if what is motivating Thanos in IW and up until now is Galactus coming to Titan?

Cutting a pop in half might take it below feast/famine line for the devourer, and thus we have our FF home, as Galactus and the Surfer are tied to those.