I also think it's the optimistic scenario and the all conditions will be cleared in March and closing will come shortly after.
Brazil -- pretty much will issue conditional approval Wednesday unless there is any 11th hour twist.
Mexico -- will be reviewed by IFT Wednesday too, and I can see a conditional approval coming and DIS must sell something
Chile -- this is a tricky one. FNE announced on Nov 19 it will start a review and nothing since, not even rumor of trouble in the press. Since phase I review last no more than 40 working days it could mean either it has been flipped to phase II or it has been approved (silence means approval with FNE too) and not announced by any parties. If it is indeed in phase II review because of whatever competition concerns, it could take up to another 90 days. We are in working day 70ish since the review process started mid-Nov so it could take theoretically another c.60 working days before FNE has to come out and say something and will still meet the 2nd termination date of the deal in June in any case.
The rest -- I would say either approved quietly, dealt with, or waived.
So the best case scenario is DIS sending a press release tomorrow or in a few days saying all conditions cleared and completion expected by early or mid-March (the street's forecast). If indeed Chile is the bloody last holdout, then I don't know perhaps DIS will actively do or promise something to speed it up. Our internal intel says it's unclear when FNE will announce the finding and make a decision but since the visibility is so low with FNE there is a chance it has already done so with DIS or let it go through with silence no phase II review despite some market concentration.
One last note: FNE approved Time Warner and ATT merger on Sept 4, 2017, almost one year after it was announced on Oct 22, 2016, and DIS and FOX deal review is taking already longer than that since it was announced in Dec 2017. It also came in the middle between Mexico (Aug 22) and Brazil (Oct 18), so they could come around the same couple of months one after another. I read that the ATT Time Warner merger actually increased the TV market concentration in some Latam countries already and may have made the DIS deal an additional concern especially it came not that long after that. In that deal the US was the last holdout and came in more than half a year after the FNE, on June 22, 2018 and the deal was closed two days later.