The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

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Here's something interesting. So we all know once the Disney-Fox deal closes Disney will have 90 days to divest the 22 regional sports networks,it looks like Disney is already gearing up to sell the networks which could indicate a close date is coming quite soon. Provided the EU gives approval sometime in the next 2 weeks. (whether its on the 6th or 11th) who knows they could approve it before the deadline.

Initial bids are due on November 8th (an important date due to Disney's Q4 earnings call and the possibility of it being 2 days after EU approval) The networks have been valued at a whopping 25 billion. All though observers say they are more likely to sell between 16-20 billion.Still that would take the 71 billion bid and bring it back down to around the original 52.4 billion. A nice 20% discount on Disney's part.

So if Disney sells the RSN's sometime before the year is out (possibly in November) and China gives approval sometime in December they could in theory meet that projected January 1st close date.

Sports Channels Draw Interest From Private Equity, ‘New Fox’ and Ice Cube


While there hasn't been any official news (other than the brief blurb about the EU), I suspect there's a LOT going on behind the scenes, and they probably know when they expect to close at this point. I'm thinking by the end of Feb. is a reasonable window, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if they push to get it done before the end of the year (they seemed to be pushing the actual deal so they could have that in before the end of 2017).

The only real sticking point that even concerns me a little bit is China, and I think if China's really being stubborn, they could just close without them and work that out later.
 
I would think any antitrust problem in China is just politically driven since market dominance argument won’t hold water. Foreign films are subject to government quota, TV content is strictly regulated and censored and foreign companies have no business in distributing contents to locals.
 
I expect well see Disney just invest more in Disney China (theme park expansion, more day and date releases etc) and maybe announce a commitment to hire more Chinese actors.
 
Given that 15 countries overall need to approve the deal, do we know how many countries are being included in the EU approval? Or is the EU being counted as one single approval?
 
Given that 15 countries overall need to approve the deal, do we know how many countries are being included in the EU approval? Or is the EU being counted as one single approval?

I would assume the EU is counted as one, but probably the single most important one. I suspect the majority of the others have already quietly approved. Hopefully we'll find out more a week from now.
 
Ah... dang- I was hoping they'd be individual, but I would agree that this one is quite pivotal.

If there have been other approvals, though, I wonder why they flew under the radar. Wouldn't the other countries want to make them public, at least from a... business/financial standpoint, maybe? I don't know- that just popped into my head as the most logical reason for being open with approvals.
 
Ah... dang- I was hoping they'd be individual, but I would agree that this one is quite pivotal.

If there have been other approvals, though, I wonder why they flew under the radar. Wouldn't the other countries want to make them public, at least from a... business/financial standpoint, maybe? I don't know- that just popped into my head as the most logical reason for being open with approvals.

Well we've heard of a few (I thought I read on here that India and at least one other country had approved), and beyond the big ones like China and the EU, it's probably just not news unless there's a problem. Investors expect them to knock them down one by one, so if, for example, Argentina just approved the deal, it's not really news. Even the people in Argentina were probably expecting it.

And that's what the quarterly reports are for. Even if we don't get an actual closing date, I'd expect some status report on where things stand with various approvals.
 
I think the phrase "No news is good news" applies here. The expectation is approval, the surprise would be rejection, so a rejection from a small country might make news, but an approval won't.
 
I think the phrase "No news is good news" applies here. The expectation is approval, the surprise would be rejection, so a rejection from a small country might make news, but an approval won't.
I wonder when we'll hear about China's approval
 
Well we've heard of a few (I thought I read on here that India and at least one other country had approved), and beyond the big ones like China and the EU, it's probably just not news unless there's a problem. Investors expect them to knock them down one by one, so if, for example, Argentina just approved the deal, it's not really news. Even the people in Argentina were probably expecting it.

And that's what the quarterly reports are for. Even if we don't get an actual closing date, I'd expect some status report on where things stand with various approvals.

I think the phrase "No news is good news" applies here. The expectation is approval, the surprise would be rejection, so a rejection from a small country might make news, but an approval won't.

India and Brazil, I believe. Those were the ones I saw mentioned here.

I guess I was thinking of announcements in terms of planning. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that the deal being blocked by a country would prevent the results (i.e., completion) of the deal being brought to that country. So if Argentina blocked it, for example, they wouldn't be able to build a theme park with the FF, screen their movie. Things I would think people would want to know ahead of time. But none of that can happen until after closing, so I guess that point is moot....
 
its not surprising really. Disney has pretty good relations with China.
 
So do these recent revelations mean that the deal will close for sure on Jan 1st?
 
I said a while back. we wont hear about most of the approvals only the major ones. the smaller ones would only make headlines if they denied it.
 
India and Brazil, I believe. Those were the ones I saw mentioned here.

I guess I was thinking of announcements in terms of planning. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that the deal being blocked by a country would prevent the results (i.e., completion) of the deal being brought to that country. So if Argentina blocked it, for example, they wouldn't be able to build a theme park with the FF, screen their movie. Things I would think people would want to know ahead of time. But none of that can happen until after closing, so I guess that point is moot....

If a country said: "No, we're not going to approve this merger." they only way they can enforce that is to prevent the new entity from doing business in their country. In most countries the only business the new entity would be doing is releasing films and selling merchandise, so it would basically be: "If you go through with this merger, you won't be able to release films or sell merchandise here anymore."

With the example of Argentina, Disney's response would probably be: "That's too bad. Oh well, we'll just sell our product elsewhere."

Since that would stink for the people of Argentina, the anti-trust authorities in Argentina would likely not go that route. If they have any real concerns, they'll let Disney know and Disney can work with them.

Realistically, because of the nature of the deal, I can't imagine anyone refusing unless they think they can make some political point out of it. And in that case Disney would have to decide what route leaves them in the best situation.

Now getting back to your point, as you sugget, all that does impact Disney's business and the value of their stock, so if there are any real problems, they will have to discuss that. But if, for example, Argentina (sorry to pick on you Argentina :cwink:) approved the deal on October 17th, Disney wouldn't really have to announce that on the day it happened. They'd just mention in in their conference call next week when they summarize the status of the merger.

There are 1000 things happening every day that have some impact on the business, but it's the job of the board to collect all that information, determine what really matters and what doesn't and communicate that to shareholders through their quarterly reports and the conference call they use to explain those reports and other matters (such as the status of the merger).
 
So do these recent revelations mean that the deal will close for sure on Jan 1st?

I think we're far from anything certain, but if the China report is true, I think the closing could come relatively soon. They may do it on December 31 or Jan 1 (depending on if there is any tax reason to make it happen 2018 or 2019), or it could happen a little later in the first quarter.

But IF the China report is true, there may not be much left to do, and I think Disney is motivated to make this happen sooner rather than later and not drag it out much longer.
 
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