The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - Part 5

[Willie Lumpkin]

Five Years

Fox will need to have a film in theaters by summer of 2023. That means they'll have to have made a firm decision and be gearing up by summer of 2021 - five years from now.

That means Fox only has five years to sh** or get off the pot (a particularly appropriate expression considering the quality of Fox FF films).

And put into perspective how short five years is in this world, five years ago, Josh Trank was finishing Chronicle and rumors were starting that Fox Execs liked what they were seeing so much that they were likely to offer him Fantastic Four.

Then next Comic-Con we'll be down to four, then three, then two . . .

 

[Dark Raven]

Fox went right down to the wire with the last movie though with less than a year to go. Maybe even only a couple of months or so. We speculated that they wouldn't move forward with it as it was getting so late and delayed so many times, but they still did. Could they be that idiotic again?

 

[regnak]

Fox went right down to the wire with the last movie though with less than a year to go. Maybe even only a couple of months or so. We speculated that they wouldn't move forward with it as it was getting so late and delayed so many times, but they still did. Could they be that idiotic again?

Perhaps the deal for the X-Men TV shows was something that would make it impossible for Fox to make another movie. Like in return for the TV shows the next FF movie must have a budget of at least $200 million and Marvel gets 40% of the gross. In that case Fox would have the rights until the 7 years are up but would never be able to make another movie without huge losses. Marvel get the rights back in 7 years and Fox saves face.

Or option 2 the deal could move the reversion date up by 2 or 3 years.

 

[ADollarADay]

The scenario in which Sony attempts to create a Spider-Man cinematic universe when the character's popularity is at an all time high sounds awfully familiar. Namely because Sony attempted that same thing just a few years back, resulting in the mess that was ASM2.

Telling the paying public that Spidey no longer chums around with Tony Stark or fights alongside the Avengers will go over like a fart in church, and both Sony and Marvel knows it. Not only would Sony be losing all ties to the MCU, they would have to recast Pete along with his supporting cast for a fourth time. If they are as greedy as you say, Sony execs will do everything they can to keep the current arrangement going.

It is indeed a horrible scenario. You can try to think it'll never happen because the execs will play nice (lol). Sony - and every other studio - still dream of having their own cinematic universe. Ghostbusters is a bust for them, so they have to keep looking.

The fact that you think their greediness mean they will do everything to keep the arrangement going as opposed to try to go at it alone, then I have a bridge to sell you. It's all about the money, nothing else. Unless there are provisions in place right now where the rights go to Marvel or something along those lines, when it comes time to renegotiate, Sony will have the upper hand because Marvel gave up so much the first time around. Similar to Sony - Bond arrangement where EON can just bully Sony into whatever they want. That's why Microsoft bought the Gears of War IP from Epic as well despite the overwhelming success they had working together.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2009/09...ular-spider-man-studio-loses-spidey-tv-rights

That does mention the TV rights (and I had forgotten about that, so thank you). It does not mention anything about animated movie rights, so unless you have something on that, I stand by what I said earlier, the evidence does not suggest Sony had those rights prior to this latest deal.

 

[ADollarADay]

Perhaps the deal for the X-Men TV shows was something that would make it impossible for Fox to make another movie. Like in return for the TV shows the next FF movie must have a budget of at least $200 million and Marvel gets 40% of the gross. In that case Fox would have the rights until the 7 years are up but would never be able to make another movie without huge losses. Marvel get the rights back in 7 years and Fox saves face.

Or option 2 the deal could move the reversion date up by 2 or 3 years.

That is something I thought about as well. Instead of greenlighting the TV shows for a higher royalty fee or whatever, they could greenlight the shows in exchange for amending and changing the xmen and/or fantastic four contracts that is more beneficial to Marvel.

Like you said, maybe put a minimum budget for the movies - that is adjusted yearly for inflation, a higher take of the gross (these are two things Marvel would definitely want for XMen and FF contracts), changing the FF contract from the current 7 years to production and 8 years to release to 2 years to production 3 years to release, have an expiration date, etc.

As is, if nothing changed, I fully expect Fox to create a new $30-50 million low budget FF movie in 2022 right before the rights expire and release it in 2023.

 

[NotNickFury]

So I have a question for all the hopefuls: full disclosure, I'm not a Fantastic Four person at all and could go either way on whether Fox or Marvel Studios owns the film rights to X-Men, but let's say down the line, maybe in the umpteenth iteration of the MCU when we have an entirely new cast of Avengers, Defenders, and so on, and Marvel Studios does have the film rights to Fantastic Four and X-Men, what happens to this thread? Does it just close?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Fox went right down to the wire with the last movie though with less than a year to go. Maybe even only a couple of months or so. We speculated that they wouldn't move forward with it as it was getting so late and delayed so many times, but they still did. Could they be that idiotic again?

I'm not sure if it was as likely they would quit as most of us hoped.

In March 2014 (nearly a year and a half before release) we had our best hope when it was reported they were looking for new directors. They probably were, but by that point, they were too far along and needed a director who could step right in. They didn't have enough time to start all over. And when they couldn't find one, they had to continue with Trank.

By that point, it wasn't just the Marvel agreement that was putting a gun to their heads. Management was also (foolishly) counting on FF to be their 2015 tent-pole. In today's film world, studios need films like DOFP to make the year for them and be the difference between black and red on the big ledger. Without a big enough hit to make the year . . . well we saw what happened to Fox and their stock in 2015.

By March of 2014, it was too late to pull a new tent-pole out of their butt, so they needed to push through with Fant4stic and do whatever they could. Without a competent director to take over, they fumbled along with Trank as the official director and others, almost certainly, taking over his directorial duties.

Fox should have learned some things from this:

1. Josh Trank and Simon Kinberg are idiots.
2. Fox is incapable of making FF movies.
3. If they do make the foolish decision to attempt another FF film, they should give themselves more time and not schedule it so they are trying to release it the year their rights expire.

I'm saying five years because I think that if we haven't heard anything five years from now, we're safe.

But more realistically, Fox should be moving more quickly than that. If they don't want to put themselves in a similar position in the future, they should shoot for 2022 instead of 2023.

And if they want to make a serious effort at an FF film in 2022, they should be working it into their schedule and lining up a good director and script well prior to that.

So I think if Fox really, seriously wants to take another shot at this, they should begin putting it together by around 2018 - two years from now. I can't imagine management would seriously let them loose on a new effort in two years, so the chances are close to zero they'll even attempt anything again.

But from our point of view. If we ask ourselves "What's the absolute longest we could go without hearing anything but Fox could still slap together a film?", I think that number is five years. If we don't get any announcements over the next 5 Comic-Cons, I think we're safe.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

So I have a question for all the hopefuls: full disclosure, I'm not a Fantastic Four person at all and could go either way on whether Fox or Marvel Studios owns the film rights to X-Men, but let's say down the line, maybe in the umpteenth iteration of the MCU when we have an entirely new cast of Avengers, Defenders, and so on, and Marvel Studios does have the film rights to Fantastic Four and X-Men, what happens to this thread? Does it just close?

I was hoping we could have closed the thread last night.

But since we still don't have anything, I think the thread will continue until we have something (at least I'll post here until the rights situation changes or the moderators shut it down).

Once we have an announcement, the conversation will shift, and I'd expect this thread to close and new ones to start. Once Marvel has the rights we can begin discussing how we hope and expect them to use the FF characters.

I still have hope that we could get an announcement any day. I had looked forward to the idea that Comic-Con would make sense for an an announcement, but we could get a press-release next week.

If I recall correctly, the Spider-Man announcement didn't come at any special event.

If it is a shared deal, Fox may insist the announcement not be made at a Marvel event. They would likely want it to be as much about them as Marvel.

 

[Docker2.0]

This sucked! Well, I can now continue to save money not watching Fox's superhero movies.

 

[Dasher10]

So I have a question for all the hopefuls: full disclosure, I'm not a Fantastic Four person at all and could go either way on whether Fox or Marvel Studios owns the film rights to X-Men, but let's say down the line, maybe in the umpteenth iteration of the MCU when we have an entirely new cast of Avengers, Defenders, and so on, and Marvel Studios does have the film rights to Fantastic Four and X-Men, what happens to this thread? Does it just close?

Then it's about getting the distribution rights to Spider-Man, Hulk and Namor back.

 

[Raiden]

I was hoping that they will have a huge announcement of F4 going back to Marvel at SDCC. Very disappointed to have heard nothing about it, even after the TV deal.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Quick question: what's the deal with Marvel not showing some of their panels/trailers? I know that people were getting really crazy with recording Hall H stuff on their phones, and I remember Marvel saying something them not showing footage because of this, but if someone could elaborate that'd be awesome.

 

[ADollarADay]

Then it's about getting the distribution rights to Spider-Man, Hulk and Namor back.

Marvel gave up so much that there's always something to get back. XMen and Deadpool movie rights, theme park rights in Orlando, usage of word "Marvel" in other parks, etc.

Also, I thought it was confirmed Namor was back at Marvel, including distribution? Is that incorrect?

 

[NotNickFury]

Quick question: what's the deal with Marvel not showing some of their panels/trailers? I know that people were getting really crazy with recording Hall H stuff on their phones, and I remember Marvel saying something them not showing footage because of this, but if someone could elaborate that'd be awesome.

I think that's part of the reason Fox didn't show this year because of all the stuff last year that leaked early like the Suicide Squad and Deadpool trailers, even though the respective companies just ended up dropping them online not long after anyway, but don't quote me on that.

 

[Web-Head]

Marvel gave up so much that there's always something to get back. XMen and Deadpool movie rights, theme park rights in Orlando, usage of word "Marvel" in other parks, etc.

Also, I thought it was confirmed Namor was back at Marvel, including distribution? Is that incorrect?

It wasn't confirmed, no.

 

[GoblinScrier]

Ok...so it passed...we didn't hear anything...I know it was a long shot but I am sad...despite all the cool stuff that was revealed last night, I was really hoping just for the 4 symbol and that would have been enough....

Kevin is the key to all of this...is there anyway somebody might be able to interview him...any connections at all and ask the question cause it seems to never be brought up in interviews...I know he would never admit it whether they are trying or already have them....but it would let him know that the fan community is overly anxious to see them home...

 

[Spiderine]

Just because they didn't make an announcement yesterday means very little. Marvel doesn't have to say a word about it until they are ready to or they simply won't say anything about it. Its still very early in phase 3. They have many projects lined up and are focusing on the now rather than the later.

Its still possible that a reversion date was set for the FF to return and hasn't happened yet. So technically no one can still mention anything about it since it FOX still has it. If Marvel has it right now..........they probably don't think its necessary to announce it this soon. Personally I would just like to see characters associated with the FF just start randomly showing up in films.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Marvel gave up so much that there's always something to get back. XMen and Deadpool movie rights, theme park rights in Orlando, usage of word "Marvel" in other parks, etc.

Also, I thought it was confirmed Namor was back at Marvel, including distribution? Is that incorrect?

I like Universal more than Disney World, so I hope that one doesn't happen.

 

[Dasher10]

Marvel gave up so much that there's always something to get back. XMen and Deadpool movie rights, theme park rights in Orlando, usage of word "Marvel" in other parks, etc.

Also, I thought it was confirmed Namor was back at Marvel, including distribution? Is that incorrect?

Character rights reverted. Distribution didn't. Marvel can use Namor but can't put him in a solo film without Universal distributing and getting all the box office revenue. Same deal as with Spider-Man and Hulk.

 

[jaymes_e06]

Spider-Man I thought they split revenue evenly.

 

[Flint Marko]

I don't think there is any splitting of revenue with Spider-man. I think Sony keeps everything they make off Homecoming and Marvel keeps everything from their movies that feature Spider-man like Civil War.

 

[Snaaaaake!]

The scenario in which Sony attempts to create a Spider-Man cinematic universe when the character's popularity is at an all time high sounds awfully familiar. Namely because Sony attempted that same thing just a few years back, resulting in the mess that was ASM2.

Telling the paying public that Spidey no longer chums around with Tony Stark or fights alongside the Avengers will go over like a fart in church, and both Sony and Marvel knows it. Not only would Sony be losing all ties to the MCU, they would have to recast Pete along with his supporting cast for a fourth time. If they are as greedy as you say, Sony execs will do everything they can to keep the current arrangement going.

Good points but to my understanding Tom Rothman is a bigger idiot than Amy Pascal is when it comes to Marvel movies. So I'm sure he hates having to sit back and have Marvel take control of what could be their first film to hit the Billion dollar mark. Sure he'll take the billion dollar box office but he'll hate the fact that him or Sony didn't really earn it. Speaking of which, if the next 3 Spidey films all make a billion+ what would Marvel be content with the terms of the current deal?

Better yet, why would Marvel allow Fox the same deal? Having a say in Spider-man, X-men and F4 films is better than nothing. But having 100% of the control and box office success thanks to your own efforts makes more sense in Marvel Studios case.

 

[Chris B]

I think we can probably put to bed the notion that Marvel got the rights back in exchange for handing over the X-Men TV rights. I'd prefer a full reversion, but I'm getting the feeling that some kind of some sharing deal may be the likeliest outcome at some point.

 

[Chris B]

Better yet, why would Marvel allow Fox the same deal? Having a say in Spider-man, X-men and F4 films is better than nothing. But having 100% of the control and box office success thanks to your own efforts makes more sense in Marvel Studios case.

In the case of Spider-Man, it makes sense to me as Marvel get all the merchandise revenue. And that is where a lot of the profit comes from with these big tentpoles.

Though I agree that current Sony arrangement wouldn't work for the FF or the X-Men, so I don't think a theoretical sharing deal with those wouldn't look like it.

 

[Zarex]

As is, if nothing changed, I fully expect Fox to create a new $30-50 million low budget FF movie in 2022 right before the rights expire and release it in 2023.

"Reed and Ben: The College Years"