The Superhero Cinematic Civil War: Quoth the Kraven, "Nevermore." - Part 61

[Iceman]

It's interesting that in its 20 years of existence, no movie in the Fox Marvel movie franchise reached a billion and the first time out that Disney has them in the sandbox they hit that number. To this day I'm still surprised that neither DOFP or Deadpool 2 made it past the $700-$800 million range.


Some quick predictions for next year:

I think Brave New World will do better than Thunderbolts but both of them are likely to fare better at the box office than Quantumania and The Marvels did last year provided word of mouth isn't bad (like Quantumania) and there's no imminent strike to cripple the press tour for either of them (like The Marvels).

I think Fantastic Four will be the biggest hit for Marvel at the box office next year but I can't see that making it to a billion either. Truthfully I don't see any movie in their upcoming slate reaching $1B until Avengers: Doomsday.

The Fox universe didn’t have anywhere close to the same overall scale, despite having some good/very good films mixed in with the dross. The MCU was a juggernaut until recent times with 10 billion dollar films to Endgame so the max potential of any given successful run within it was a lot larger, with more eyes on a given project and deeper WOM transition when something hit out.

When (if) the MCU is fully back up and running, it will be able to amplify big successes to mega successes again.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think FF will move to the fall. Superman had been shooting for 150 days plus prior to the FF starting principle photography. Yet the release schedule for both films is only two weeks apart? This doesn't add up.

That doesn't mean anything. Superman maybe is using more practical work and sets than FF or any number of factors that could make FF get done more quickly. All productions are differenr

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Both movies are gonna do great imo. A Superman movie that embraces all the core aspects of the character, with an emotional core and relatable characters is bound to succeed. And I think Marvel has an exciting/different enough take for audiences to come and show out for the F4.

If they both stay the course, 2025 is gonna be a landmark summer for the industry, me thinks.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

I dont care if Superman or FF do better. I am a fan of both properties and want both movies to be good and do well enough to warrant sequels. This ain't a game where score keeping matters or you win something for being on the "winning" team.

Don't get me wrong, I definitely agree with you, I want both movies to do well because then we all as fans benefit. But I'm just saying for some reason, I see FF doing bigger business at the box office.

But I'm just running my lips.

 

[lenz]

That doesn't mean anything. Superman maybe is using more practical work and sets than FF or any number of factors that could make FF get done more quickly. All productions are differenr

I know. It is still a tight schedule, regardless.

 

[Drizzle]

I think FF will move to the fall. Superman had been shooting for 150 days plus prior to the FF starting principle photography. Yet the release schedule for both films is only two weeks apart? This doesn't add up.

Could have been more of a scheduling thing than anything because it's no crazier than the next Jurassic World starting to film a little over a year out from release and that one is out before either of the other two. My guess is Superman had an earlier than usual start date to accommodate Gunn's schedule so he'll have more time to work on it in post while juggling his other duties with DC.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I think Superman is going to play very well with critics, and that alone should lead to good word of mouth. I’m not expecting a billion worldwide or anything, but I’m of the belief that it does need to at least exceed what MOS did at the box office.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Seeing Reynolds proclaim how he saved the studio at D23 right before he introduced Feige was hilarious.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Could have been more of a scheduling thing than anything because it's no crazier than the next Jurassic World starting to film a little over a year out from release and that one is out before either of the other two. My guess is Superman had an earlier than usual start date to accommodate Gunn's schedule so he'll have more time to work on it in post while juggling his other duties with DC.

I meant to say earlier when you brought it up, but that damn Jurassic World sequel is going to be a problem. I still don't see the entertainment in watching people getting ripped up by dinosaurs in forgettable plots but the world loves that mess.

Then ScarJo and Mahershala is in it, so yeah that might throw a wrench in one of the CBMs.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Don't get me wrong, I definitely agree with you, I want both movies to do well because then we all as fans benefit. But I'm just saying for some reason, I see FF doing bigger business at the box office.

But I'm just running my lips.

The one thing FF has going for it is the fact that the interest is clearly there. It's the most discussed of the 3 MCU films next year and gets the most news coverage and videos made about it online. So that's a positive start. Thunderbolts worries me as I don't see many people covering it at all during production and such. I noticed that during The Marvels lead up, and it was my first red flag it may be in trouble (though even I underestimated how that would spiral).

So, if FF delivers, I think it can do very well. Maybe not a billion, and I think they should call 500 mil a win. But can it get to 700? Maybe, but that may also require moving it away from Superman. But we shall see

Plus, Ole SF here has been pretty good in recent history on these type of predictions

 

[Drizzle]

I meant to say earlier when you brought it up, but that damn Jurassic World sequel is going to be a problem. I still don't see the entertainment in watching people getting ripped up by dinosaurs in forgettable plots but the world loves that mess.

Then ScarJo and Mahershala is in it, so yeah that might throw a wrench in one of the CBMs.

Dinosaurs sell. It's the only way that Jurassic World: Dominion made $1B while having a terrible plot that audiences should have rejected. But I also tend to look the other way because the original Jurassic Park is one of my all-time favorite movies so nobody could ever make me hate that franchise.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I know. It is still a tight schedule, regardless.

It's a tight schedule, but Marvel is used to that. I actually think a more compelling reason to move it further into the year is competition. I think Jurassic World is coming out around then too, right? Why compete with that and Superman when you can pick a less crowded month? That's one thing that has worked in Deadpool's favor. Nothing major came out after for weeks!

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Dinosaurs sell. It's the only way that Jurassic World: Dominion made $1B while having a terrible plot that audiences should have rejected. But I also tend to look the other way because the original Jurassic Park is one of my all-time favorite movies so nobody could ever make me hate that franchise.

Dude, I don't know if you've ever been, but that damn Jurassic Park ride at Universal Studios...



Got on both rides at the Florida and Cali locations, pissed myself each time when this bad boy popped up. Thank God you get soaked by the end of the ride.

 

[Drizzle]

It's a tight schedule, but Marvel is used to that. I actually think a more compelling reason to move it further into the year is competition. I think Jurassic World is coming out around then too, right? Why compete with that and Superman when you can pick a less crowded month? That's one thing that has worked in Deadpool's favor. Nothing major came out after for weeks!

If Marvel makes that call and moves Fantastic Four to that November spot, it would be wise on WB's part to move Superman to the 25th to put some distance between it and Jurassic.

Dude, I don't know if you've ever been, but that damn Jurassic Park ride at Universal Studios...

View attachment 99909

Got on both rides at the Florida and Cali locations, pissed myself each time when this bad boy popped up. Thank God you get soaked by the end of the ride.

Never been but I know all about old Rexy on that ride, lol.

 

[lenz]

It's a tight schedule, but Marvel is used to that. I actually think a more compelling reason to move it further into the year is competition. I think Jurassic World is coming out around then too, right? Why compete with that and Superman when you can pick a less crowded month? That's one thing that has worked in Deadpool's favor. Nothing major came out after for weeks!

I agree. This is an issue for me too. What's the benefit of shooting on such a tight schedule when you have those two films to compete with in the same month? If Superman is great, it will still have plenty in the tank when FF drops. If Marvel really wants to do justice to these characters, finally, then why not give the film some breathing room and increase its chances of success?

 

[Lily Adler]

Seeing Reynolds proclaim how he saved the studio at D23 right before he introduced Feige was hilarious.

 

[Lily Adler]

Dude, I don't know if you've ever been, but that damn Jurassic Park ride at Universal Studios...

View attachment 99909

Got on both rides at the Florida and Cali locations, pissed myself each time when this bad boy popped up. Thank God you get soaked by the end of the ride.

 

[Iceman]

Both movies are gonna do great imo. A Superman movie that embraces all the core aspects of the character, with an emotional core and relatable characters is bound to succeed. And I think Marvel has an exciting/different enough take for audiences to come and show out for the F4.

If they both stay the course, 2025 is gonna be a landmark summer for the industry, me thinks.

I love when both Marvel and DC have a huge hit close to each other raising optimism over the whole genre, like summer 2008 with Iron Man and TDK.

 

[emielaen]

FF will move to that November Blade spot.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

At this point in time, I’m very ok with the idea that there’s only one Blade, and there’s only ever gonna be one Blade

It was just ill conceived from the start imo. Ali wins an Oscar and calls marvel up, there’s no script or take, anything. They just get a phone call from a guy who is fresh off an Oscar and assume everything will fall into place. And here we are, 5 years later.

 

[Venom 1988]

It's a tight schedule, but Marvel is used to that. I actually think a more compelling reason to move it further into the year is competition. I think Jurassic World is coming out around then too, right? Why compete with that and Superman when you can pick a less crowded month? That's one thing that has worked in Deadpool's favor. Nothing major came out after for weeks!

I think this why they haven't officially delayed Blade yet. They don't want to give up that November spot until they decide on whether they want to move FF to it or not.

 

[Venom 1988]

Ali wins an Oscar and calls marvel up, there’s no script or take, anything.

That's technically not true. They were already in the process of developing Blade, it just happened that Ali reached out to them during this time frame. Ali even mentioned this in a interview a couple of years back. Now we're they far into development by that point? Probably not, cause prior to Marvel TV shutting down they actually had dibs to do a Blade show from Ike.

Ultimately I think the biggest reason why the Blade movie suffered so much was because Marvel simply wasn'y ready for a Blade movie yet. They were too early in the development process and had a lot of other projects that were a bigger priority but they still wanted to get Ali on board since he expressed interest. The only Marvel movie in recent years that succesfully zoomed through the development process was Spider-Man Homecoming but that was largely in part due to the deal with Sony and their time table.

 

[The Batman]

It's interesting that in its 20 years of existence, no movie in the Fox Marvel movie franchise reached a billion and the first time out that Disney has them in the sandbox they hit that number. To this day I'm still surprised that neither DOFP or Deadpool 2 made it past the $700-$800 million range.

IMO, it's a reminder that while the Fox/Singer approach to X-Men was successful (at times), it also kept the franchise from reaching its full BO potential.

 

[kguillou]

I think Superman is going to do well critically and financially but I just dont see Gunn realizing his overall DCU slate successfully. In fact i think we're reaching the end of seeing studios chase the "cinematic universe" model on a whole. The whole announcing 10 movies thing is kind of like jinxing yourself like we've seen over and over again. Marvel was able to do it in 2014 because they proved that they could be successful and they had a very clear linear plan. But now not even Marvel can replicate that strategy successfully again.

I think going forward its more prudent to focus on whats in front of you and then take it from there.

 

[Drizzle]

I think Superman is going to do well critically and financially but I just dont see Gunn realizing his overall DCU slate successfully. In fact i think we're reaching the end of seeing studios chase the "cinematic universe" model on a whole. The whole announcing 10 movies thing is kind of like jinxing yourself like we've seen over and over again. Marvel was able to do it in 2014 because they proved that they could be successful and they had a very clear linear plan. But now not even Marvel can replicate that strategy successfully again.

I think going forward its more prudent to focus on whats in front of you and then take it from there.

They were also able to do it because they were basically the pioneers of doing that successfully in modern Hollywood. It was a gamble that paid off since basically everything from that presentation in 2014 came to fruition with the exception of Inhumans being nixed and Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp being added.

I think the days of planning out these movies more than 2-3 years in advance are behind us regardless.