The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread III

[DarthSkywalker]

The shooting may well have had an impact but this thing was never going to get the OW record. There was alot of hype to try and drive up buisness but the truth is there are only so many seats, so many theaters, so many screens.

Alot of us were trying to explain since Avengers open that it would be very hard to increase the attendance to the amount to cover the difference of the 3D boost. Unfortunately people listened to hype over reason, including alot of the box office sites.

Now I think the shootings will have a roll, but how much? I don't think anyone will be able to calculate, but if someone says this would have broken all the records if not for the shootings, that's not true at all, it was always going to be an uphill battle.

Personally I am rooting for this thing to make all it can before the end of the weekend. I live in the city where this horrible tragedy occured, and I'm guessing the people that went to that movie went there because they care about this franchise and they care about these characters, and one persons tragic choice to resort to cold blooded murder shouldn't change that for them or for us. Now obviously I could care less about the box office compare to the innocent lives of those people. But I do hate the fact that the people involved in making this film will forever be tied to this tragic event.

My local theaters are each showing the film on five separate screens, with something like 30 showings a day. I have never seen anything like it where I live, nor how many people I saw leaving the theater last night. I think they have the seats, and if it really did make 75+, it shows it is possible. The question is the effect on walk ups the tragedy had. It has been all they have been talking about on the local and national news today.

However, I still think the biggest hurdle is the length.

 

[Salieri]

Due to the longer run time and the reviews no where near what we expected, I don't see 'Rises' having legs like TDK. I mean, after seeing the trilogy, TDK was a one of a kind masterpiece. I honestly don't believe this will cross the $1 Billion mark.

Domestic: $440 Million
Foreign: $475 Million

You are WAY OFF with your prediction, specially regarding the foreign total. The international markets have grown dramatically since 2008. Now countries like Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and China are huge then you add powerhouse markets UK, France, Germany, Spain, Japan, Korea and TDKR will EASILY make more than $475m. China alone is a monster of a nation and can add $100m to the total(but release date problems must be resolved asap for that to happen.)

Here is the minimum totals in some key markets:
UK < $70m
Ger < $40m
Fra < $40m
Mex < $30m
Bra < $40m
Rus < $40m
Chn < $40m
Spn < $30m
Kor < $40m
Jpn < $30m
-----------
equals 400m minimum without Australia, Italy, Scandinavian countries, Turkey, Swiss, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Middle East countries, Croatia, Serbia, Argentina & the rest of south American markets, Holland, former Soviet states(Ukraine, Slovenia, Belarus..etc), Poland, India....!!
That's more than 50 markets garnering only $75m??? I don't think so.
You wait and see, this Batman movie will be the first one to make more money in the foreign market than domestic. I say 550/700= $1.25B

 

[db85usa]

You are WAY OFF with your prediction, specially regarding the foreign total. The international markets have grown dramatically since 2008. Now countries like Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and China are huge then you add powerhouse markets UK, France, Germany, Spain, Japan, Korea and TDKR will EASILY make more than $475m. China alone is a monster of a nation and can add $100m to the total(but release date problems must be resolved asap for that to happen.)

Here is the minimum totals in some key markets:
UK < $70m
Ger < $40m
Fra < $40m
Mex < $30m
Bra < $40m
Rus < $40m
Chn < $40m
Spn < $30m
Kor < $40m
Jpn < $30m
-----------
equals 400m minimum without Australia, Italy, Scandinavian countries, Turkey, Swiss, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Middle East countries, Croatia, Serbia, Argentina & the rest of south American markets, Holland, former Soviet states(Ukraine, Slovenia, Belarus..etc), Poland, India....!!
That's more than 50 markets garnering only $75m??? I don't think so.
You wait and see, this Batman movie will be the first one to make more money in the foreign market than domestic. I say 550/700= $1.25B

'Rises' predecessor is a far superior film. I did say $475 mil foreign so that's more than what I expect domestically. Batman does not do that well overseas. That is a fact. No way it grosses $700 mil. You're crazy, guy.

 

[Liam_H]

That is a pretty generous total for Japan. Unless your Spider-Man most CBM do not do very well over there.

 

[Knightstalker]

'Rises' predecessor is a far superior film.

And you should really stop stating your opinion like it's fact.

 

[Frontier]

The consensus data from all the Batman films of the past 20+ years indicates a fairly 55/45 split on average, domestic to international. But that could be upended by how much the overseas market had grown for such things.

I see TDKR falling between Begins and TDK in box-office. Though more on the TDK side of things than the Begins, as Begins was an unknown element and people where still wary of big screen Batman since the 90s films.

I think TDKR will do 400-450 domestic, 350-400 international. Just a guess.

I'm hoping the events in Colorado don't diminish things.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I feel underestimations are creeping back. There is no way i see the film finishing under 500m if it's opening weekend is above 170m.

As for foreign we can't base it on past batman film performances. The international market has grown so much in the past 4 years.

Assuming TDKR debuts with at least 170m ow i predict:


domestic: 505m

Foreign: 600m+

 

[Salieri]

'Rises' predecessor is a far superior film. I did say $475 mil foreign so that's more than what I expect domestically. Batman does not do that well overseas. That is a fact. No way it grosses $700 mil. You're crazy, guy.

You know nothing about foreign markets, simple as that. I gave you specific numbers AND asked you if you believe TDKR will make $75m from 50 markets but you did not have an answer!

Let me say it again. The foreign market has exploded in the last two years. Inception made more money than TDK while not performing well with families/kids in general, but you expect the sequel to one of the most successful DVD/BR of all time(TDK) to not be popular with teens/young adults who were hooked by Heath & Inception??

The no. of overseas theaters have increased, and the price of tickets too. China wasn't the monster it is now, the authorities in China had to put an embargo on Hollywood films because its making tons more money than local films. Russia has a huge theaters count now along with Brazil and Mexico. Those 4 can add up to $200m to the TDKR tally. So not only the popularity of Batman has increased, but also the theatre count too. Although i have a feeling you won't be convinced now either, so i would like you to bookmark my post and use it later against me if my estimate is off and yours is closer to the final figures ok?

 

[Iceman]

$1BN worldwide should still happen. I don't think the shooting will affect overseas box office.

 

[db85usa]

And you should really stop stating your opinion like it's fact.

Hi. Welcome to the board. Who are you again? It is a fact. Rises won't gross anywhere near as much as TDK. I know this.

 

[Iceman]

'Rises' predecessor is a far superior film. I did say $475 mil foreign so that's more than what I expect domestically. Batman does not do that well overseas. That is a fact. No way it grosses $700 mil. You're crazy, guy.

Even if this were true, TDK itself would generate a big proportion of DKR's grosses. Prior film is as big a determinant as any to a film's success. If you hold DKR's quality constant and downgrade TDK to (for eg) B&R quality, the potential of DKR would be very limited. Look how well Phantom Menace did for another eg. No matter how bad it was it was always going to make a ton with that kind of hype from the previous films. And DKR may be a little more mixed in reception (than TDK) but it certainly doesn't sound like a complete failure from critic and fan reviews so far. And like others have said the recent growth in the overseas market has been crazy. Pirates 4 made $800BN there for example.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Hi. Welcome to the board. Who are you again? It is a fact. Rises won't gross anywhere near as much as TDK. I know this.

That's pretty much troll talk there. It is certainly not a fact. If you want to get respect around here don't talk out your ass. You'd think someone who's been a board member for 10 years would know this.

ps. the grosses for Friday have just been estimated at 80m, TDK grossed 67m on its friday.

 

[Knightstalker]

Hi. Welcome to the board. Who are you again? It is a fact. Rises won't gross anywhere near as much as TDK. I know this.

Oh yes, you have a higher post count that me, you're so superior . You stated that TDK is a far batter film than TDKR. That is your opinion, not a fact.

 

[db85usa]

You know nothing about foreign markets, simple as that. I gave you specific numbers AND asked you if you believe TDKR will make $75m from 50 markets but you did not have an answer!

Let me say it again. The foreign market has exploded in the last two years. Inception made more money than TDK while not performing well with families/kids in general, but you expect the sequel to one of the most successful DVD/BR of all time(TDK) to not be popular with teens/young adults who were hooked by Heath & Inception??

The no. of overseas theaters have increased, and the price of tickets too. China wasn't the monster it is now, the authorities in China had to put an embargo on Hollywood films because its making tons more money than local films. Russia has a huge theaters count now along with Brazil and Mexico. Those 4 can add up to $200m to the TDKR tally. So not only the popularity of Batman has increased, but also the theatre count too. Although i have a feeling you won't be convinced now either, so i would like you to bookmark my post and use it later against me if my estimate is off and yours is closer to the final figures ok?

Look at the history. Batman is an American hero. Won't do that well overseas. Explain then why didn't TDK gross $600 or $700 million overseas in 2008 while in 2007, Spiderman 3 grossed $554 mil overseas and POTC At Worlds End grossed $654 mil, HP Order of the Phoenix $647 overseas? Simple -- Batman is not that popular outside of North America. And you've got 6 previous Batman films with only one coming close to the $500 mil mark overseas and TDK is far and away a much better film than the latest installment. Even now as we speak, Rises is having difficulty matching ASM's foreign BO return in different markets.

 

[Black Narcissus]

My local cinema was sold out.

 

[Leenie]

Warner Bros. isn't going to report TDKR's opening weekend box office numbers out of respect for the victims and their loved ones. The numbers will be reported sometime on Monday.

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/07/20/warner-bros-dark-knight-rises-shooting-box-office/

 

[db85usa]

That's pretty much troll talk there. It is certainly not a fact. If you want to get respect around here don't talk out your ass. You'd think someone who's been a board member for 10 years would know this.

ps. the grosses for Friday have just been estimated at 80m, TDK grossed 67m on its friday.

I think somebody is still mad because you flat out labeled Rises 'The Dark Knight Returns' and I called you out on that one in a completely different thread and now you want to vent. Give me a break buddy.

 

[db85usa]

Oh yes, you have a higher post count that me, you're so superior . You stated that TDK is a far batter film than TDKR. That is your opinion, not a fact.

Yep higher post count. Fact. Check rotten tomatoes or IMDB or metacritic. Which movie has better critic reviews? You guessed it! TDK. These are plain facts. And my opinion, too is TDK is the better movie and is one of those rare sequels that actually lived up to the hype.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Yep higher post count. Fact. Check rotten tomatoes or IMDB or metacritic. Which movie has better critic reviews? You guessed it! TDK. These are plain facts. And my opinion, too is TDK is the better movie and is one of those rare sequels that actually lived up to the hype.

And those are an accumulation of opinions, not facts.

 

[GDM]

Yep higher post count. Fact. Check rotten tomatoes or IMDB or metacritic. Which movie has better critic reviews? You guessed it! TDK. These are plain facts. And my opinion, too is TDK is the better movie and is one of those rare sequels that actually lived up to the hype.

Yes do check Rotten Tomatoes. Metacritic is lower for TDKR but if you look closely on rotten tomates you will see that the difference between TDK and TDKR is very small in the average rating. For comparison's sake BB - 7.7/6.7, TDK - 8.4/8, TDKR - 8/7.9. This tells me that even tough the percentage is lower, the grades it received are pretty high anyway and the crowd reports so far have been great.

 

[GDM]

By the way I'm really fine with TDK being the best of the trilogy. It was a perfect storm that movie, every element clicked just the right way. I haven't seen TDKR yet but I"m happy we have a trilogy that is at least good, judging from the reactions. How many superhero trilogies can say that?

 

[Alex Logan]

Yep higher post count. Fact. Check rotten tomatoes or IMDB or metacritic. Which movie has better critic reviews? You guessed it! TDK. These are plain facts. And my opinion, too is TDK is the better movie and is one of those rare sequels that actually lived up to the hype.

And you're basing this off critic reviews?

 

[dante2012]

You know what i loved tdk but i feel batman begins was a better batman film then tdk as it was more focused on bruce and has better replayabilty. Im gonna see TDKR NEXT WEEK and from i hear im gonna love it and enjoy it more then tdk.

 

[dante2012]

My prediction is more then 1 billion as TDKR is getting very good reviews and as some people already said the overseas market has become huge in the last couple of years aswell. Also Nolan's reputation and the actors also will boost the film and remember its the final batman film in this franchise!

 

[KalMart]

Avengers will take the gold this year. Maybe not by a whole lot, but it'll probably make the most.