The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread IV

[Street Vendor]

I'm pretty happy with $19.5m considering the shooting nuked its kid audience and most working adults do not have time to watch a nearly 3 hour film during the week. I expect this to be more of a weekend performer (like TASM was in its 2.5 weeks before TDKR came out) than TDK, which was a beast during the weekdays and then had its weekends slightly deflated.

The other thing here is media coverage of the shooting yesterday was a frenzy. If you had told me the shooting happened Friday, I would have said "no way." Yesterday's coverage was crazy. I was in an airport yesterday afternoon and the TV's all had constant coverage of the shooting. Yesterday they got their first glimpse at the shooter in court, so they obsessed over that. They also got new details about his life, so they obsessed some more over that as well.

Yeah, and at work this morning people are still talking about it. As they were on the morning commute. The Philly Inquirer has a headline that says "Dark Knight brand tarnished"(I still haven't read the article). This movie is damaged goods.

 

[Tony Stark]

@giteshpandya
$19.5M MON for #DarkKnightRises & 4day total of $180.4M. Huge MON, but down a hefty 20% from TDK's $24.5M in 2008.


Compared to TDK's Monday:


$24,493,313

Wow, that's a huge drop. Now part of that may have to do with the run time, but that's barely more than what Avengers was on Monday on a school day. We'll see how well it recovers during the week and weekend, but right now I don't think it will make it to 500M domestic.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah, and at work this morning people are still talking about it. As they were on the morning commute. The Philly Inquirer has a headline that says "Dark Knight brand tarnished"(I still haven't read the article). This movie is damaged goods.

Certainly seems to be damaged from an earnings potential. I long thought the projections of this movie were overestimated, but now it's in a territory where it's bleeding audience. It's unfortunate, but keeping things in perspective, the victims are the primary concern at this point.

 

[Street Vendor]

Certainly seems to be damaged from an earnings potential. I long thought the projections of this movie were overestimated, but now it's in a territory where it's bleeding audience. It's unfortunate, but keeping things in perspective, the victims are the primary concern at this point.

Very true. At the end of the day, it's only a movie.

 

[hatebox]

but keeping things in perspective, the victims are the primary concern at this point.

I think we can take as read. In a box office thread it's impossible not to talk about this. In the US it's had a tangible effect on the movie.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I think we can take as read. In a box office thread it's impossible not to talk about this. In the US it's had a tangible effect on the movie.

And it seems to not be going away with copycat shooters, lawsuits against WB, etc. I'm sure this situation is a nightmare for everyone involved. I just hope WB doesn't use this as an excuse to make the reboot campy. "We got sued because the last one was too dark/violent and inspired a mass shooting!"

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I don't know... I can't help but feel disappointed with how the box office is going for this movie.

I know 12 people lost their lives, and it doesn't feel right expressing disappointment over a movie... but this is what we do, and I'm not going to let a madman stop me from ejoying a movie I have waited 4 yours for. The show must go on.

Over here in Ireland, the general response is,

''Did you hear about that 'Batman shooting' in Colorado?''

''Yeah man, there are some sick freaks out there... I'm actually seeing DKR on Wednesday/Whenever. I hear its unreeeal.''

A very bittersweet end to this era.

 

[atomicbattery]

Aside from the enormous effect of the tragedy, the fact that the marketing has gone silent, in and of itself, has had an incalculable, but certainly negative, impact.

The Monday after TDK's opening weekend, there was a huge commercial presence that fed momentum.
Sadly, all there is now is this negative energy of fear, sorrow and anxiety surrounding the film.
This terrific movie deserved so much better.

 

[rogue trooper]

At the end of the day, this film did prove to be successful, financially and critically. Maybe not as predicted, but still successful. It's been an almost perfect summer for comicbook movies!

 

[Tony Stark]

Aside from the enormous effect of the tragedy, the fact that the marketing has gone silent, in and of itself, has had a huge impact.

The Monday after TDK's opening weekend, there was a huge commercial presence that fed momentum.
Sadly, all there is now is this negative energy of fear, sorrow and anxiety.
This terrific film desrved so much better.

WB is really stuck at this point. If they do an advertising blitz this weekend, they will be accused of being insensitive to the victims, but if they don't this thing will drop like a rock.

Right now alot are estimating a 68M weekend, based on the Monday drop or a -57% weekend.

 

[Jordanstine]

It's a little too early for projections, but here's mine:

Monday = $19.5M
Tuesday = $17.7M
Wednesday = $15.6M
Thursday = $14.2M
Friday = $21.0M
Saturday = $25.3M
Sunday = $20.7M

2nd Weekend = $67.0M

2nd Week Cume = $134.0M

Total Domestic Prediction after July 30th = $294.9M

 

[Adam_West66]

It's a little too early for projections, but here's mine:

Monday = $19.5M
Tuesday = $17.7M
Wednesday = $15.6M
Thursday = $14.2M
Friday = $21.0M
Saturday = $25.3M
Sunday = $20.7M

2nd Weekend = $67.0M

2nd Week Cume = $134.0M

Total Domestic Prediction after July 30th = $294.9M

$295 million after ten days? I'll take it. This movie is going to play well into September. Nolan's Bat-flicks have always had good legs.

And honestly, if this film ends up with "only" $450 million or so, are we REALLY going to be that disappointed? Anyway you slice it, that is a HUGE success.

We could play what-ifs with the Aurora tragedy all we want. I honestly think the tragedy will just make this movie not as front loaded. Who knows? I know this - I've seen the film three times already and it gets better and more emotional for me each time I've seen it. Hell, my 63 year old father was in tears at the end on Sunday. That's saying something.

 

[pixiesvision]

It's a little too early for projections, but here's mine:

Monday = $19.5M
Tuesday = $17.7M
Wednesday = $15.6M
Thursday = $14.2M
Friday = $21.0M
Saturday = $25.3M
Sunday = $20.7M

2nd Weekend = $67.0M

2nd Week Cume = $134.0M

Total Domestic Prediction after July 30th = $294.9M

TBH, that would be a pretty good scenario. I'd be well pleased.
Also, I completely agree with redfirebird about the media coverage of this. A couple of friends that I take classes with said they felt sick just thinking about TDKR. That is too strong a feeling for them to shake off. I asked why, and she said that she immediately thinks about the shooting just hearing the title of the film. 3 other people have decided to not see this in theaters at all, and they'll catch it on Blu-ray! I couldn't believe it really, but the media has done a good job putting fear into going to the movies for some people. This weekend has shown that all films, not just TDKR were hit pretty hard. I don't even expect TDKR to cross TDK's total. I would be happy if they at least did $450 mil if possible in all of this. Nolan and the crew don't deserve this, but it is what it is.

I will say though that WOM has been very good so far from people I've talked to who did go see it

 

[Adam_West66]

Theaters here in Atlanta where I live have been packed since Thursday night. My daughter is at the theater with some friends seeing it for the fourth time. She texted me before it started and said that it was playing in the largest theater and was probably 75% full. That's pretty good for a Tuesday 1o'clock showing, imo.

This movie is gonna have some legs cause WOM is tremendous amongst the GA. I think a lot of people who skip it now will eventually see it in the theaters. Just give it some time.

 

[SLYspyder]

The majority of the "analyses" in this thread are still failing to acknowledge just how much of a freight train TDK was in comparison to BB. It made $328M MORE domestically and $628M MORE WW over it's predecessor.

That's a freakin 260% domestic increase and a 268% WW increase over Begins! Here's a hint guys, sequels usually do less. That performance was absolutely unheard of as far as movies are concerned. That's pretty much peak performance for our time. Why did people think that would be so easily duplicated or OUTDONE?!

Keep comparing TDKR to TDK and you'll keep setting yourself up for disappointment. You've got to have more than "Batman is more popular than the Avengers so if Avengers did $207M OW, Batman should be pretty close" when you're looking at box office numbers because I sure saw a lot of realistic predictions suddenly spike up when TA came out.

 

[Reek]

Wow, 4 day totals... I am surprised TDKR is only 40 million behind Avengers. guess it makes sense though.

 

[Adam_West66]

The majority of the "analyses" in this thread are still failing to acknowledge just how much of a freight train TDK was in comparison to BB. It made $328M MORE domestically and $628M MORE WW over it's predecessor.

That's a freakin 260% domestic increase and a 268% WW increase over Begins! Here's a hint guys, sequels usually do less. That performance was absolutely unheard of as far as movies are concerned. That's pretty much peak performance for our time. Why did people think that would be so easily duplicated or OUTDONE?!

Keep comparing TDKR to TDK and you'll keep setting yourself up for disappointment. You've got to have more than "Batman is more popular than the Avengers so if Avengers did $207M OW, Batman should be pretty close" when you're looking at box office numbers because I sure saw a lot of realistic predictions suddenly spike up when TA came out.

This.

TDK-like success doesn't happen often.

 

[redfirebird2008]

TDK wouldn't have made what it did with a mass shooting like TDKR is dealing with. It's pointless to compare them. The only thing you can say is one was positively impacted by death (Ledger) and the other was negatively impacted by death (shootings). Either way the franchise is cursed.

 

[Jordanstine]

@ERCboxoffice

Bat-update: TDKR actual gross = $19,389,129 Monday. IMAX accounted for $3,023,305.

 

[ultimatefan]

I´m not worried about the BO. It has strong word of mouth and will make great repeat business. It will be a big hit, regardless of not breaking Avengers´ records.

 

[The Guard]

The Dark Knight Rises w/out Joker $160.8 OW - New Record (2D)

A relatively small amount. 160.8 million. Very good with calculation.

 

[ultimatefan]

A relatively small amount. 160.8 million. Very good with calculation.

By no means 160m is a relatively small amount. A little below expectations, and it´s hard to figure how much or an impact the Colorado attack might have had, but not even the biggest Marvel fanboy on the boards would say the third biggest opening of all time, the biggest 2d ever, is in any way small.

 

[HighFivingMF]

By no means 160m is a relatively small amount. A little below expectations, and it´s hard to figure how much or an impact the Colorado attack might have had, but not even the biggest Marvel fanboy on the boards would say the third biggest opening of all time, the biggest 2d ever, is in any way small.

He's quoting Lau.

 

[ComicStalker]

Im sorry to say, this movie as good as it may be, Doesn't have a very recognizable "Batman" villain. As cool as this interpretation of Bane might be to fanboys. Most of the GA doesn't know who Bane is and doesn't care. To them he looks just like a general thug with nothing colorful or flamboyant about him except his muzzle mask. There was NO way this movie was gonna do as well as TDK. I remember right before TDK came out EVERYone was talking about "The Joker". From critics, to people who hadn't seen the film yet. Then we had another tragedy with Heath overdosing and that added to the hype and mystery as everyone wanted to see Heaths' "last" performance before he died.
Then you add in the runtime of this movie. When I mentioned this to some of my friends they were shocked and a couple of them hesitated because they simply didn't want to sit in the theatre for nearly 3 hours. This is stopping alot of casual viewers from seeing the movie. Many of them will just wait for the Blu-Ray when its more convenient.
Also there is a depressing tone to this movie whether you want to admit it or not. All these things add up to an under performing movie...

 

[ultimatefan]

He's quoting Lau.

I see. My bad.