The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread V

[Jordanstine]

Minus the virals... the marketing for this film was pretty much identical to The Dark Knight.

This got a huge marketing push. And the virals are much too fan-based, they never make much of an impact on the general public. Sure my friends would like to see a picture of Bane or Catwoman online... but unlike me, the won't spend hours waiting for it through playing an ill-conceived game.

I honestly thought TDKR's marketing was smarter over Avengers.

I remember the very first TDKR commercial in early June with the words Pre-order Tickets Now on Sale and available in IMAX! Think that definitely helped their midnight numbers for one thing

 

[Jordanstine]

3rd weekend TDKR = $18,979,397 (-47%)

 

[BlackFox]

3rd weekend TDKR = $18,979,397 (-47%)

Thanks for the update!!

 

[ultimatefan]

The movie´s already fairly close to 1 billion. Even if it doesn´t reach the exact mark, will be close enough, one of the three biggest superhero movies ever, and a major tentpole for the studio.

 

[rickfox]

3rd weekend TDKR = $18,979,397 (-47%)

time to kiss 450 m line(domestic) and say goodbye?

 

[Jordanstine]

time to kiss 450 m line(domestic) and say goodbye?

Posted this projection back on August 8th:

The pace right now...

By this 4th weekend it will take in another $36.3 million for the whole week.

5th weekend about another $19.7 million.

6th weekend another $11 million.

7th weekend Labor Day $7.5 million.

8th weekend about $3.5 million.

9th weekend about $2 million.

10th weekend about $1.2 million.

So after it's 10th weekend, TDKR would make about another ~ $80.1 million.

Based on estimates, the total should be up at about ~ $435 million after September 23.

For this 4th weekend's week total, TDKR made $35.7 million which was slightly down from my projected $36.3 million.

At it's current pace, TDKR is looking like it's going to have a hard time trying to hit $450 million... it may end up short possibly around the $445 million range.

Continuation post a few days ago regarding where it will stand after it's 10th weekend:

By it's 10th weekend (September 23) TDKR should be around $435 - $438 million.

$450 million still has a chance, but it would be a slow crawl from October on out, assuming it's still in the local theaters longer than 16 weeks like TDK did which would be around mid-late November or so.

By the 17th week is when we can expect WB to have TDKR moved to the dollar theaters, which brought in an extra $2.5 million to 2008's TDK. In TDKR's comparison percentage that would be roughly about $2.1 million on the high end.

So if I had to guesstimate (assuming no re-releases) based on it's current pace... TDKR's original run is looking to end roughly between $443 - $447 million.

 

[Kane52630]

Total Ticket sales est.
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

The Dark Knight Rises 47,978,800

Marvel's The Avengers 76,021,200

The Amazing Spider-Man 31,461,200

 

[Baneis8feettall]

How the bad place Hunger Games made such boxoffice in USA? There is something wrong with it.

Almost as muchas TDKR in first movie with bunch of no names. It's PG-13 as well. 407 million domestic.

 

[Bruce Malone]

^^^

I don't understand your confusion (and your grammar as well tbh)? I didn't see it myself but it's based on a very popular book series and is actually not terrible from what i've heard. Harry Potter orginally had a bunch of no names as well same for twillight. That's how all these series start. And i really don't see how being pg-13 is weird?

 

[Deserana]

Yeah The Hunger Games isn't too bad. It is almost like BB in a way that the first hour is purely dedicated to setting up with the world and the character leading to a more standard final hour. It may be a little too long for its content however it has much potential. It's actually an intriguing world taken seriously aimed at a more mature teen audience than ones who just like boys with no tops.

 

[Baneis8feettall]

^^^

I don't understand your confusion (and your grammar as well tbh)? I didn't see it myself but it's based on a very popular book series and is actually not terrible from what i've heard. Harry Potter orginally had a bunch of no names as well same for twillight. That's how all these series start. And i really don't see how being pg-13 is weird?

I mean it's not PG, so not movie for kids. Harry Potter was world wide madness compared to Hunger Games. I think it's the best selling book series of all time.

407 million dollars in first movie is a huge number. None of Harry Potter movies reached that number.None of other best selling books as well. 12th of all time.That's crazy imo.

 

[Bruce Malone]

There's not too much difference in pg or pg-13 depending on the film. The avengers was rated pg-13 and many many kids saw it, also so were the last harry potters.

Yes it did better than most expected, i think a lot of that has to do with competition it was released during a period where there were few big budget movies to compete with until the avengers.

 

[rickfox]

Posted this projection back on August 8th:



For this 4th weekend's week total, TDKR made $35.7 million which was slightly down from my projected $36.3 million.

At it's current pace, TDKR is looking like it's going to have a hard time trying to hit $450 million... it may end up short possibly around the $445 million range.

Continuation post a few days ago regarding where it will stand after it's 10th weekend:

thanks,

5 million short of hitting 450 m line? that sucks

 

[Dr.]

thanks,

5 million short of hitting 450 m line? that sucks

The two previous films did slightly better domestically compared to foreign - with an approx. 55/45 split. TDKR is looking like it might be the reverse. So the ww box office may end up being about the same as TDK. Not too shabby.

 

[rickfox]

The two previous films did slightly better domestically compared to foreign - with an approx. 55/45 split. TDKR is looking like it might be the reverse. So the ww box office may end up being about the same as TDK. Not too shabby.

I never concern whether TDKR's international box office will grab less than TDK did(China and Italy still havn't contribute their share of TDKR yet--and TDK got $0 from china back 2008)
or cast any doubt on TDKR's boxoffice to surpass 1 billion worldwide.

My concern is always focus on 2 aspects
1,whether TDKR's domestic boxoffice will hit 450 m or not
2,whether TDKR's worldwide boxoffice will reach 1.1 billion or not

 

[Dr.]

My concern is always focus on 2 aspects
1,whether TDKR's domestic boxoffice will hit 450 m or not...

Why $450M, particularly (seems like a somewhat artificial/arbitrary goal)? Against a $250M production budget, $500M would actually represent break-even. Then you could say that all foreign revenues are essentially gravy/profit.

 

[DACrowe]

How the bad place Hunger Games made such boxoffice in USA? There is something wrong with it.

Almost as muchas TDKR in first movie with bunch of no names. It's PG-13 as well. 407 million domestic.

Because it is based on a popular book that is the new "It" series after Twilight and Harry Potter have ended for young adults. It is also a very good film with a great lead performance.

 

[CapedCrusader14]

The Hunger Games is quite an enjoyable film, watched it the other night.

 

[Micromind]

If TDKR makes 440 mil. in US and Canada, can it still manage to reach 1 billion worldwide ?

 

[SLYspyder]

If it opened to $180m, odds are it would have been more frontloaded. I think at most it will be hurt by around $50m and possibly as little as $20m. I've been going with $30m for awhile. So if it finishes around $445m, then it would have made $475m. I haven't seen any evidence that word of mouth is strong enough to support the kind of total you're suggesting.

I agree with this. I think the OW was definitely affected by the shooting (~15m) but most of the business it lost came back in the following weeks.
I mean the shooting is an after thought at this point.

The fact it had a decent sized drop the following weekend shows the shooting didn't affect the OW that much. If it did, I believe the 1st weekend would've been abnormally low allowing the 2nd weekend to look a LOT stronger.

 

[rashad]

If TDKR makes 440 mil. in US and Canada, can it still manage to reach 1 billion worldwide ?

Domestic + Foreign my friend. Yes.


Foreign Update
The actuals from this past weekend increased over the estimates.

35.1M weekend / 446.6M total

 

[04nbod]

Batman & Robin in the London Olympics closing ceremony.

Oh, and that 835m figure is so pleasing on the eyes.

I can't wait to see TDKR for the first time next weekend. AT LAAAAAAST.

No, Del Boy and Rodney dressed as Batman and Robin. Their car breaks down on the way to a fancy dress party

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYBd7999qqo

 

[intothevoid]

It baffles me how anyone can doubt this film will reach $1bn worldwide.

Its performance outside the US is pretty staggering. It will make $1bn easy. Like someone else said, the only question is whether it will make $1.1bn

 

[Milkman95]

Exactly, $1 Billion is inevitable....just a matter of time.....

 

[BlackFox]

Wow two $1 Billion films in one trilogy, thats pretty good going, only Pirates has managed that before.

$ Billion films[9]
Rank Title Worldwide gross Year Ref
1 Avatar $2,782,275,172 2009 [# 1]
2 Titanic $2,185,372,302 1997 [# 2]
3 The Avengers $1,461,891,916 2012 [# 3]
4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 $1,328,111,219 2011 [# 4]
5 Transformers: Dark of the Moon $1,123,746,996 2011 [# 5]
6 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,929,521 2003 [# 6]
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,066,179,725 2006 [# 7]
8 Toy Story 3 $1,063,171,911 2010 [# 8]
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $1,043,871,802 2011 [# 9]
10 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $1,027,044,677 1999 [# 10]
11 Alice in Wonderland $1,024,299,904 2010 [# 11]
12 The Dark Knight $1,001,921,825 2008 [# 12]