Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[Manowar]

Really? I wasn't aware of that.

So next time a good movie under performs or bombs, we can just BLAME CANADA! t:

I'm pretty sure Canadians watch more movies then Americans on a per capita basis.

 

[BigThor]

Think it'll get to 400 ww by Monday?

Definately

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Really? I wasn't aware of that.

So next time a good movie under performs or bombs, we can just BLAME CANADA! t:

Totally, because Canada is the bad guy. There are no redeeming qualities about that place or it's people.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Wall-E is my 2nd-favorite Pixar movie ever. And I love all Pixar movies (except Cars). It's a glorious film.

One of my favorites as well. There is some real beauty in Wall-E. Some moments are breathtaking and/or heartbreaking.

I love TIH to death (was my favorite Marvel film before I saw Thor) .... but financially I could see why they'd have trepidations about green-lighting a sequel. There were some abnormal factors though that contributed to it's poor domestic box office results.

Somehow I loved that you used the term "green-lighting".

 

[Tony Stark]

Budget: $150 million
Domestic BO: $134,806,913
Foreign BO: $128,620,638
Total: $263,427,551

Again if we use the same number of about 13% that we used with Thor to figure out the cut they got from the Foreign BO (approx $16.7 million), that would put them at just about $150 million .... Thor's done that in two weeks. TIH did the majority of it's numbers between 6/13/2008 to 7/17/2008.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=incrediblehulk.htm

I love TIH to death (was my favorite Marvel film before I saw Thor) .... but financially I could see why they'd have trepidations about green-lighting a sequel. There were some abnormal factors though that contributed to it's poor domestic box office results.

You have to remember with TIH, before the Disney buyout, Marvel had to be very careful with it's captial investments. They were getting more of the profits, but they had to front all the money to produce the films. With Iron Man being a big success, I think it made more sense to develop other projects.

 

[rashad]

$2.3M Wed -25% drop

OS cume - $235,977,490

 

[Tony Stark]

$2.3M Wed -25% drop

OS cume - $235,977,490

I little lower than I expected, but considering it went up yesterday, I don't think it's that unexpected, and still on pace to finish the week at 10M which is excellent.

 

[BigThor]

$2.3M Wed -25% drop

OS cume - $235,977,490

That's a reasonable drop

 

[kedrell]

Think it'll get to 400 ww by Monday?

It's going to be at about an even $370M WW going into this weekend. probably will make $17M domestic over the weekend which would only need a $13M OS weekend. Yeah, it'll hit 400M WW by weekend's end.

Should have another $40M domestic at least and another $25M OS left in the tank before it runs dry after that point which would give it a WW total of $465M at least.

 

[BigThor]

It's going to be at about an even $370M WW going into this weekend. probably will make $17M domestic over the weekend which would only need a $13M OS weekend. Yeah, it'll hit 400M WW by weekend's end.

Should have another $40M domestic at least and another $25M OS left in the tank before it runs dry after that point which would give it a WW total of $465M at least.

I think it'll land somewhere in the 20s over the weekend and let's not forget that Thor still hasn't been released in China.

 

[kedrell]

I think it'll land somewhere in the 20s over the weekend and let's not forget that Thor still hasn't been released in China.

I'm not completely up on the OS release dates and such. But common sense told me that it should at least make a $13M OS weekend. But the more $ the merrier.

 

[rashad]

I think it'll land somewhere in the 20s over the weekend and let's not forget that Thor still hasn't been released in China.

It's already opened in China. Japan is the last market.

 

[kedrell]

Why'd they push it all the way to July 2 in Japan? This makes no sense. It's almost as bad as IM1 waiting till September 27th to come out there in 2008. If IM1 had been released there around the time the rest of the world got it then maybe it would have grossed more in Japan. It was less than 15M away from reaching $600M WW when it ended. Does Marvel just not like Japan or something? Even IM2, which opened like Thor did(OS before North America) didn't open in Japan until mid June. And TIH waited a month & a half after domestic release before Japan got it.

 

[BigThor]

It's already opened in China. Japan is the last market.

Damn, well I knew it was one of them

 

[Raiden]

Why'd they push it all the way to July 2 in Japan? This makes no sense. It's almost as bad as IM1 waiting till September 27th to come out there in 2008. If IM1 had been released there around the time the rest of the world got it then maybe it would have grossed more in Japan. It was less than 15M away from reaching $600M WW when it ended. Does Marvel just not like Japan or something? Even IM2, which opened like Thor did(OS before North America) didn't open in Japan until mid June. And TIH waited a month & a half after domestic release before Japan got it.

Yeah, it makes no sense why Marvel would wait so long to release it in Japan. Japan has toku series like Super Sentai and Ultraman, and I think they love superheroes over there.

 

[Arach Knight]

Yeah, it makes no sense why Marvel would wait so long to release it in Japan. Japan has toku series like Super Sentai and Ultraman, and I think they love superheroes over there.

Japan does love superheroes. They just don't love our superheroes.They are very xenophobic in Japan. While they do love many aspects of American pop culture, it usually comes in the form of irony rather than outright admiration (Rats & Star, Ganguro Girls, Amerikamura). That is not to say that there is no market for American superheroes, but it is very small.

Marvel has been trying to break into that market since the 1970s, including the Toei produced Spider-Man live action series (unrelated to the original Marvel comic as well as the Japanese comic, which itself is unrelated to the original Marvel comic), the 1970s Spider-Man manga, the release of X-Men TAS. Even Marvel vs. Capcom, which is produced by a Japanese company, has little fanbase in Japan, compared to here in the west. Japan is ultimately unimportant to this movie.

China on the other hand is the bigger push. The Chinese do enjoy many of our products and ideas. At least those that are allowed by their government. Avatar was a huge success in China. Most Chinese people play Western or Korean video games because of the trade embargo between China and Japan.

 

[Superhero 101]

I wonder how much will Thor make in China?

 

[BigThor]

^^^ Idk, but I think it's already been released in China.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I believe it has been released in China already.

 

[rashad]

I wonder how much will Thor make in China?

Something respectable but nothing too earth shattering. $12.16m (US dollars) so far.

The only previous Fast and Furious installment to be released in China was the 4th one, which got 29m yuan in total. Fast Five beat it in two days. It will likely be frontloaded, with Pirates 4 and Kung Fu Panda 2 waiting in the wing. Still, it should reach $20m+ total and could beat Thor.

Don't be fooled by the 195% increase by Thor; the weekly figure is actually slightly lower than I expected (predicted 60m+ yuan). Fast Five appears to steal its thunder quite a bit, and the 3D screens will be in serious jeopardy the next couple of weeks, so the legs could be short from this point on.

http://www.boxofficefollower.net/2011/05/china-weekly-box-office-59-515-fast.html

 

[04nbod]

Box Office Mojo is estimating a $17 million haul for Thor this weekend. (Thor did $5 million more last weekend than BOM's estimate so fingers crossed) Its currently on around $127 million which will rise to $130 million with the Thursday box office. Look for Thor to end the weekend at $147 million at least. It will break the $150 million barrier early next week.

 

[Herolee10]

Why'd they push it all the way to July 2 in Japan? This makes no sense. It's almost as bad as IM1 waiting till September 27th to come out there in 2008. If IM1 had been released there around the time the rest of the world got it then maybe it would have grossed more in Japan. It was less than 15M away from reaching $600M WW when it ended. Does Marvel just not like Japan or something? Even IM2, which opened like Thor did(OS before North America) didn't open in Japan until mid June. And TIH waited a month & a half after domestic release before Japan got it.

Japan does love superheroes. They just don't love our superheroes.They are very xenophobic in Japan. While they do love many aspects of American pop culture, it usually comes in the form of irony rather than outright admiration (Rats & Star, Ganguro Girls, Amerikamura). That is not to say that there is no market for American superheroes, but it is very small.

Marvel has been trying to break into that market since the 1970s, including the Toei produced Spider-Man live action series (unrelated to the original Marvel comic as well as the Japanese comic, which itself is unrelated to the original Marvel comic), the 1970s Spider-Man manga, the release of X-Men TAS. Even Marvel vs. Capcom, which is produced by a Japanese company, has little fanbase in Japan, compared to here in the west. Japan is ultimately unimportant to this movie.

China on the other hand is the bigger push. The Chinese do enjoy many of our products and ideas. At least those that are allowed by their government. Avatar was a huge success in China. Most Chinese people play Western or Korean video games because of the trade embargo between China and Japan.

It is weird that they'd wait so long to release it in Japan, especially considering that Hogun was played by a supposedly well known Japanese Actor from there.

heck, I remembering hearing on how Batman begins got a early release I think in Japan due to Ken Watanabe's involvement with it.

 

[kedrell]

Box Office Mojo is estimating a $17 million haul for Thor this weekend. (Thor did $5 million more last weekend than BOM's estimate so fingers crossed) Its currently on around $127 million which will rise to $130 million with the Thursday box office. Look for Thor to end the weekend at $147 million at least at the end of the weekend. It will break the $150 million barrier early next week.

Good analysis and I agree. It looks like POTC4's midnights were less than Thor's on opening day. This bodes well for POTC4 not hurting Thor as much as expected. I'd love for Thor to be able to make it to a 20M 3rd weekend...which is still kinda up in the air but not out of the question.

 

[TheVileOne]

$17 million would be a decent haul up against Pirates 4, especially when the movie had such a strong performance and hold over from last weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

Saw Pirates last night, a good, but not great movie. My opinion is it's better than At World's End, not as good as Dead Man's Chest. Probably a 6/10, I think it will do decent, but I wouldn't be shocked if it failed to make 100 mil.

I don't want to make this a review thread of that movie, but IMO the movie suffers from not having Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightly who rounded out the cast well. There are some other regulars from the series. I did like Ian McShane as Black Beard, and honestly he was more interesting than Depp's Captain Jack who suffers badly in this movie from the "been there done that" feeling.

I think Thor will be fine, and I think people are underestimating it. Perhaps they're giving it a larger drop because it will lose alot of 3D screens this weekend.

Thor by far is still the best movie of the summer by far. I'd say Pirates is more enjoyable than Fast 5, because at least you know Pirates is set in a fantasy world. However it's just not that good. Best comparison would be to Prince of Persia last year. Servicable, but nothing spectacular.

I predict it will be the first Pirates movie to fail to cross the 300 mil mark.